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Wkd BO 11•11-13•16 - Strange guy and Trolls win, beat out female-lead Arrival

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V

Valentus

Member
so 650 aprox for strange in the end? With that success for a B-tier superhero, i expect him to have a relevant role in infinity war.
 
N

Ninja Scooter

Member
a Trolls movie in 2016? As in the Troll dolls? Are they back in again with kids or something? Is a Beanie Baby movie next? Can we expect Wii-The Movie in 10 years?
 
B

BumRush

Member
Valentus said:
so 650 aprox for strange in the end? With that success for a B-tier superhero, i expect him to have a relevant role in infinity war.
Click to expand...

I know Fantastic Beasts is coming, but wouldn't strange have to absolutely tank rest of way not to hit $700M?
 
N

NealMcCauley

Member
Strange was pretty damn great. Absolutely bonkers to experience in Imax. Gonna see Arrival next. Might finish the day with Hacksaw Ridge. Haven't been to the movies in a while if you couldn't guess.

The Logan trailer played in front of Strange and I could hear lots of "awesome" murmurs when it started and ended. God I hope the movie is as good as that trailer.
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
BumRush said:
I know Fantastic Beasts is coming, but wouldn't strange have to absolutely tank rest of way not to hit $700M?
Click to expand...

I can honestly see Strange doing better than Fantastic Beasts at the end of their respective runs. I think $750M-$800M will be where Strange ends up.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Overseas for Strange is looking like at least $475M. Maybe $500M if it doesnt get hit too hard.

Edit: $450M is probably the worst case scenario overseas. Domestic low end is $225M.
 
S

Slayven

Member
I thought China had laws against movies with magic and ghosts and shit?

Or Astrals bodies don't count as ghosts?
 
S

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
Slayven said:
I thought China had laws against movies with magic and ghosts and shit?

Or Astrals bodies don't count as ghosts?
Click to expand...

There is one law that is greater

Opposing-view-Save-the-dollar-bill-AJHQQT4-x-large.jpg
 
B

BLACKLAC

Member
kswiston said:
Overseas for Strange is looking like at least $475M. Maybe $500M if it doesnt get hit too hard.

Edit: $450M is probably the worst case scenario overseas. Domestic low end is $225M.
Click to expand...

If that's the case 700 million WW is a strong possibility, right?
 
K

kswiston

Member
BLACKLAC said:
If that's the case 700 million WW is a strong possibility, right?
Click to expand...

It will depend on next week overseas. I don't have much of an idea of how big Fantastic Beasts will be overseas.

Domestically, i think $17-18M is about as bad as next weekend will get. Ideally we would see something in the low 20s. Thor 2 dropped 61% in its third weekend which overlapped with Catching Fire. Fantastic Beasts isnt going to get anywhere near $150M opening weekend, so I dont think Strange will get hit harder, even if this Friday was inflated.
 
B

BumRush

Member
kswiston said:
It will depend on next week overseas. I don't have much of an idea of how big Fantastic Beasts will be overseas.

Domestically, i think $17-18M is about as bad as next weekend will get. Ideally we would see something in the low 20s. Thor 2 dropped 61% in its third weekend which overlapped with Catching Fire. Fantastic Beasts isnt going to get anywhere near $150M opening weekend, so I dont think Strange will get hit harder, even if this Friday was inflated.
Click to expand...

Plus, WOM is much better for Strange than Dark World
 
K

kswiston

Member
As far as I know, the fall slot in 2019 is open for Marvel. I can see a Doctor Strange sequel going there. I think Iron Man, Cap, and Thor will wrap up in the solo space, which makes room for sequels to the newer stuff (and a third GOTG).

Inhumans will continue to get bounced.
 
K

kswiston

Member
It looks like the estimates were close this weekend. Actual for Doc Strange and Trolls dropped $60-70k. Arrival went up $70k.
 
F

Fhtagn

Member
kswiston said:
As far as I know, the fall slot in 2019 is open for Marvel. I can see a Doctor Strange sequel going there. I think Iron Man, Cap, and Thor will wrap up in the solo space, which makes room for sequels to the newer stuff (and a third GOTG).

Inhumans will continue to get bounced.
Click to expand...

As in after Avengers 4? They've announced placeholder dates for 2020 but it looks like there's a year gap between Avengers 4 and 2020's phase 4. Is late 2019's cinema calendar already full or are there open weekends left to claim?
 
K

kswiston

Member
Fhtagn said:
As in after Avengers 4? They've announced placeholder dates for 2020 but it looks like there's a year gap between Avengers 4 and 2020's phase 4. Is late 2019's cinema calendar already full or are there open weekends left to claim?
Click to expand...

It's mostly placeholder dates right now. Disney can bully the schedule for most dates though. WB has an untitled DCEU film slotted for Nov 2019, but unless it is Batman or Justice League, it would move.
 
A

Ampersands

Member
Ha just got that title.

Surprised at Arrival's success. Barely heard any talk about it in comparison to the other movies coming out this month. Speaking of which, ready to see Fantastic Beasts blow up the BO this weekend.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Presales for Fantastic Beasts are higher than Doctor Strange at the same point prior to launch so far. We'll see how that translates going into the weekend.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
kswiston said:
Presales for Fantastic Beasts are higher than Doctor Strange at the same point prior to launch so far. We'll see how that translates going into the weekend.
Click to expand...
I can sometimes put too much stock into youtube, but it's shocking to me that the highest number of views for a Fantastic Beasts trailer is 12 million. The only blockbusters to have lower views were major underperformers like Alice.

The presales are encouraging, at least, but I think I'm going to be pessimistic of anything beyond $70M for the opening.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
I can sometimes put too much stock into youtube, but it's shocking to me that the highest number of views for a Fantastic Beasts trailer is 12 million. The only blockbusters to have lower views were major underperformers like Alice.

The presales are encouraging, at least, but I think I'm going to be pessimistic of anything beyond $70M for the opening.
Click to expand...


Presales are suggesting Thursday previews somewhere over $10M, but it's the Potterverse, so I suppose that doesn't mean anything.
 
J

joezombie

Member
I'm actually kind of surprised that Arrival is getting a chinese release given the portrayal of china in the film. It was something I thought about several times during the movie, because that's what you do while watching critically acclaimed masterpieces, think about box office
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
distantmantra said:
I took my daughter to see Trolls on Friday. Nothing subtle/inappropriate and it's also not ridiculously stupid or pandering. I liked it more than I thought I would. Nice use of existing music, particularly Junior Senior and Gorillaz, too.
Click to expand...

Agree, I went in utterly dreading it, but Trolls wasn't bad. Had a pretty grim premise, actually, even if the overall story was quite predictable. It was harmless fun, with a nice visual style.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Decado said:
And when a film doesn't open at 130m+ it is more likely to have smaller drops.
Click to expand...

The top 3 opening weekends of all time were followed up by drops of 50% or less.


Drops for films opening in the 75-130M range aren't much different than those opening above $130M. DCEU is denied its special excuse.
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
Taking my girlfriend to see it on Friday. I'm not super interested in it but the positive reviews are encouraging.

I'm shocked that it's still at 100% on RT. I wonder where it'll end up.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Schlorgan said:
Taking my girlfriend to see it on Friday. I'm not super interested in it but the positive reviews are encouraging.

I'm shocked that it's still at 100% on RT. I wonder where it'll end up.
Click to expand...

I would guess somewhere in the 85-92% range. The average on RT is currently 7.3, which suggests it's widely liked, but few critics are raving about the film (sort of like the better half of the MCU).
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
Imagine if David Yates did a MCU film after he's done with the Potterverse in 2030. 200+ streak of fresh reviews.
Click to expand...

A lot of people hating on Yates in here, but I like the guy. His name isn't going to get me in the seat by itself, but I appreciate his workman like approach to the films and how grounded they are in their reality. At least with the Potter stuff. I still need to see Legend of Skarsgard's Abs.
 
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