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Wkd BO 11•11-13•16 - Strange guy and Trolls win, beat out female-lead Arrival

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CHC

Member
I don't know if I'm the first to point it out or if it's intention but this thread's title has extremely uncanny parallels to the results of election.
 

kswiston

Member
Being down a lot from past Potters dorsn't mean Fantasyic Beasts will necessarily flop. Deathly Hallows made $960M overaeas. Half of that would still be good.
 
I don't know if I'm the first to point it out or if it's intention but this thread's title has extremely uncanny parallels to the results of election.

I didn't catch it at first. It was very, very strong work.

I am a little bit happy by the way that the european numbers are down. I was really annoyed how Rowling marketed her fancy american school, that so much better then the european shithole of Hogwarts is. Now she gets her payback.

Also it shows that she needs to move on. Cursed Child was stupid shit, this seems to flop. Do something else.
LOL, cant wait to not care about the remaining 4 movies

The-Dude.gif
 

kswiston

Member
$23.5M for Fantastic Beasts after 2 days overseas. I think it was playing in 47 markets as of yesterday and will be in over 60 as of this weekend. China opens next week. Japan also opens later.
 

kswiston

Member
Also, Doctor Strange was around $525M worldwide as of yesterday. It will pass X-Men Apocalypse worldwide on Saturday. Domestically, it already passed Apocalypse on Monday.
 
Some extra stuff from Deadline:

The presence of Fantastic Beasts isn’t exactly rising the tide for other pics out there, with frosh titles getting squashed. STX’s The Edge Of Seventeen is currently filing below its $8M-$10M projection with $5M-$7M. However, this is a great movie that needs to be discovered, and with Fantastic Beasts pulling in 53% female, 54% over 25 and 37% between 18-24, that doesn’t help this James L. Brooks comedy production.

Open Road didn’t even report a Thursday night preview number for its boxing movie Bleed For This, which is not a good sign. The Ben Younger-directed biopic about world champ boxer Vinny Paz is punching low between $2.5M-$4M, under the $5M the distributor was hoping for. Open Road snapped up Bleed For This for $4M at the 2015 Cannes Film Festival.

Sony/TriStar/Studio 8’s Ang Lee soldier PTSD movie Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk at 1,176 screens is forecasted to walk away with $2M-$3M. The adult-demo movie is off to a horrible start with critics at 42% Rotten.
 

Litan

Member
Honest question. How big would the X-Men be under Marvel studios?
Before the Avengers, they were the biggest superhero team. They were better known to the general public than The Avengers or The Justice League.

A good X-men movie that gives us the characters we know and love with costumes faithful to the comics would be a billion dollar movie. Especially in this day and age. Fox is really not taking full advantage of the IP.
 
Also, Doctor Strange was around $525M worldwide as of yesterday. It will pass X-Men Apocalypse worldwide on Saturday. Domestically, it already passed Apocalypse on Monday.

How is my $250MM domestic and $700MM worldwide prediction looking?

Youtube views never lie.

I thought Fantastic had a healthy amount of youtube views?

Honest question. How big would the X-Men be under Marvel studios?

Competing for Avengers like money on ensemble movies and pulling in $500MM - $800MM for specific characters like Wolverine, Magneto, etc movies. I do think they would have to wait until phase 5 so the bitter Fox taste is gone from the GA's mouth. To be fair though, Deadpool is a great movie and got the character to a whole different tier of popularity. I'm not sure Marvel would have released that movie under their banner.

They can just wait Fox out and have the X-Men when they inevitably reboot the MCU.

FF yes, XMen is a lot trickier and I'm sure no one wants a XMenstick from Fox (They will do it....)

Some people are guessing the inhumans moving to a tv show along with xmen being rebooted is a sign of a possible marvel/fox deal where they will be rebooted into the MCU. I have my doubts, though.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Maybe if Marvel waited a decade. I think audiences are largely done with the X-men for the foreseeable future.

Rupert Murdoch's FOX will not be handing out the X-Men license to Marvel in any foreseeable future. If FOX were to be finished with the X-Men IP following Logan's release, Marvel would still have to wait until 2024 before the rights revert back to them. Good luck.

For your information, Deadpool has a different contract in place and is not considered to be part of the FOX deal with Marvel and X-Men.
 
Rupert Murdoch's FOX will not be handing out the X-Men license to Marvel in any foreseeable future. If FOX were to be finished with the X-Men IP following Logan's release, Marvel would still have to wait until 2024 before the rights revert back to them. Good luck.

I don't think that's the case. That's FF's rumored contract.

XMen is probably under the same kind of deal as Spiderman's contract (i.e. 3 years to have a movie in pre-production/5 years to release IIRC).
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I don't think that's the case. That's FF's rumored contract.

XMen is probably under the same kind of deal as Spiderman's contract (i.e. 3 years to have a movie in pre-production/5 years to release IIRC).

If I'm not mistaken Deadline had an article about FOX's Marvel rights (I'd have to find it) and both stipulated that FOX had rights to Fantastic Four and X-Men with a seven year time lapse (add one year if in pre-production).
 
I thought Fantastic had a healthy amount of youtube views?
The highest viewed trailer has about 12M, which is very low for this kind of film. Looking at youtube views doesn't take into account other social media platforms, of course, but I've found trying to parse that information very difficult now that companies have started to tout trailer views in marketing.

Rupert Murdoch's FOX will not be handing out the X-Men license to Marvel in any foreseeable future. If FOX were to be finished with the X-Men IP following Logan's release, Marvel would still have to wait until 2024 before the rights revert back to them. Good luck.

For your information, Deadpool has a different contract in place and is not considered to be part of the FOX deal with Marvel and X-Men.
Well, we were considering the hypothetical of Marvel getting the rights now, anyway. :p

There were rumors recently of another X-men film with Fassbender, McAvory, and Lawrence too, right?
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Well, we were considering the hypothetical of Marvel getting the rights now, anyway. :p

There were rumors recently of another X-men film with Fassbender, McAvory, and Lawrence too, right?

:p

In regards to the next X-Men film, I'm not sure what FOX wants to do. But given the caliber of the actors mentioned and salaries (since they would need to negotiate a new contract), maybe they are better off concentrating on New Mutants or X-Force until they know what to do with the "mainline" X-Men per se.
 
X-Men was - by far - my favorite comic book/super hero cartoon growing up. To the point where my first AOL account was something like Wolverine123 and the password was "mutants" lol. It's sad to see the IP in such shambles. If they got rebooted in the MCU I would geek out.

If I'm not mistaken Deadline had an article about FOX's Marvel rights (I'd have to find it) and both stipulated that FOX had rights to Fantastic Four and X-Men with a seven year time lapse (add one year if in pre-production).

If you could find that article that would be great, but I think that's for the FF.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I don't think that's the case. That's FF's rumored contract.

XMen is probably under the same kind of deal as Spiderman's contract (i.e. 3 years to have a movie in pre-production/5 years to release IIRC).

If you could find that article that would be great, but I think that's for the FF.

By the way, it's not only the rumored "Fantastic Four" contract that FOX had with Marvel that had a seven year time lapse - Daredevil and Elektra had the same terms.

Daredevil's IP rights reverted to Marvel in 2012 following Elektra's release in 2005 (7 year time lapse) given that FOX had nothing tangible for a Daredevil feature film.

In regards to the article, trying to find it but nothing currently.

Daredevil rights from Deadline: http://deadline.com/2013/04/toldja-daredevil-rights-revert-from-fox-to-disney-481886/
 

kswiston

Member
How is my $250MM domestic and $700MM worldwide prediction looking?

Probably on the high side of things, but not by a ton. I'm not really sure where Strange ends up this weekend worldwide with Fantastic Beasts launching, but I'd guess somewhere between $560-570M WW. Maybe a bit higher if holds aren't terrible overseas. With every territory in release other than Japan, another $100M might be about as good as we can expect, unless I am lowballing this weekend. $125M with fantastic holds after this weekend, and a not completely shitty Japanese take.
 

kswiston

Member
Does Fox retain the rights as long as they make anything with mutant characters in it? There are a ton of movies they could make without the word X-Men in the title if they want to string along those rights for a decade or two while hunger for X-films has some time to recuperate.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???

Schlorgan

Member
Spider-man Homecoming is still a Sony film. Marvel Studios is producing, but Sony is free to fuck up its ad campaign and other details as much as they like.

The good news is that it's not being written by Alex Kurtzman/Roberto Orci.

The bad news is that it has six credited screenwriters, none of which have worked on any notable or good movies (one is credited on The Lego Batman Movie, but that's it).

I hope it's good, but boy, the odds are not in its favor.
 

kswiston

Member
Boxoffice.com updated their long range forecast.

I guess studios decided it was a good idea to schedule 5 wide releases for January 13th. Everyone's favourite, Monster Trucks, is currently being given a $12M (4-day) opening and $22M total. I think that the legs don't add up given the fact that it's a kids film, but no one is expecting good things.

Moana got bumped to a $70M opening (not counting the Wed/Thurs leading into the weekend) and a $300M total. I guess social media buzz is strong.

Everything else looks the same.
 
By the way, it's not only the rumored "Fantastic Four" contract that FOX had with Marvel that had a seven year time lapse - Daredevil and Elektra had the same terms.

Daredevil's IP rights reverted to Marvel in 2012 following Elektra's release in 2005 (7 year time lapse) given that FOX had nothing tangible for a Daredevil feature film.

In regards to the article, trying to find it but nothing currently.

Daredevil rights from Deadline: http://deadline.com/2013/04/toldja-daredevil-rights-revert-from-fox-to-disney-481886/

Yeah I remember DD and Elektra being 7 years or close to it. I compare X-Men to Spiderman because they have always been an "A" tier Marvel franchise unlike DD, Elektra, and FF (the latter's film rights might still be owned by Constantin for all we know). Fox has also released a new movie with XMen (or some variation) in it every 3 years or so.


I don't think we can say that Fox can make films without XMen (or a variation such as X-Force or X2) in the title and keep the rights. I believe swiss question was if Fox made Deadpool, Wolverine, Gambit, Storm, etc and didn't make an "XMen" titled movie for 10 years, would they still keep the rights? I think the answer is no, but I don't know for sure.

I think we can't judge a Marvel owned Xmen till we see how Spidey performs next year.

Any BO expectation for that? I think anything less than $800MM WW is a disappointment.
 
I'm surprised Beasts is tracking so low. What's the budget again?

I'm not sure they are going to make it through 5 more movies or whatever the heck they had planned
 
If the numbers fall down a bit for Friday, and the weekend comes in around mid 60's. There's a decent chance it ends up with only $150M domestically. That's probably the worst case scenario for Beasts, but I wonder if that would get WB to reevaluate their four sequels.
 
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