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[Tsaki]

I still think they should be aiming for over 30 million by end of year 3 now the shortages are well and truly over.

If they don't do something crazy to sell like 13 million units next year I think it's joever.

I don't think MS will do something drastic like go 3rd party or push their next-gen timeline by 2 years, but it also seems highly unlikely they sell 13M units next year, no matter what.

These are the counted numbers from the graph:
2020: ~2.87M
2021: ~7.82M
2022: ~8.88M
2023: ~7.6M

With new unique hardware coming out by both their competitors in Switch 2 and PS5 Pro, it will be really hard to not sell less than 2023.

 

[NeoGiffer]

How many sales altogether by early 2025 of PS5 and Xbox's combined do we think?

 

[Tsaki]

How many sales altogether by early 2025 of PS5 and Xbox's combined do we think?

PS5 about 75M and Xbox about 34M off the top of my head

 

[Astray]

I think one of the big issues with the Microsoft strategy this gen has been the disparity between paying out huge sums of money on big companies that are fundamentally valued for revenue streams that are reliant on rivals.

Like, ABK and to a lesser extent, Bethesda are both behemoth publishers whose AAA games have largely flourished on Steam and Playstation, and the prices that Microsoft paid for them were mainly accounting for those revenues. Taking future games from both and making them console exclusive without any growth in consoles makes for some disastrous math.

Starfield is a prime example of that, it's a game that started out life with a budget that clearly took Playstation revenue in mind, was taken exclusive , and now for various reasons failed to grow the Xbox console market share, and the decision to make it exclusive has robbed it of playstation revenue.

 

[MasterCornholio]

I still think they should be aiming for over 30 million by end of year 3 now the shortages are well and truly over.

If they don't do something crazy to sell like 13 million units next year I think it's joever.

I'd hold off celebrating just yet. Next year is going to be difficult for them.

 

[MasterCornholio]

I think one of the big issues with the Microsoft strategy this gen has been the disparity between paying out huge sums of money on big companies that are fundamentally valued for revenue streams that are reliant on rivals.

Like, ABK and to a lesser extent, Bethesda are both behemoth publishers whose AAA games have largely flourished on Steam and Playstation, and the prices that Microsoft paid for them were mainly accounting for those revenues. Taking future games from both and making them console exclusive without any growth in consoles makes for some disastrous math.

Starfield is a prime example of that, it's a game that started out life with a budget that clearly took Playstation revenue in mind, was taken exclusive , and now for various reasons failed to grow the Xbox console market share, and the decision to make it exclusive has robbed it of playstation revenue.

That's probably why they should go with multiplatform publishers. If they exclude PlayStation they are essentially eliminating a huge stream of revenue. And if anything was proven is that PlayStation consumers can live without those titles.

They should aim at buying studios that are Xbox centric and avoid harming the majority of consumers.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

I think one of the big issues with the Microsoft strategy this gen has been the disparity between paying out huge sums of money on big companies that are fundamentally valued for revenue streams that are reliant on rivals.

Like, ABK and to a lesser extent, Bethesda are both behemoth publishers whose AAA games have largely flourished on Steam and Playstation, and the prices that Microsoft paid for them were mainly accounting for those revenues. Taking future games from both and making them console exclusive without any growth in consoles makes for some disastrous math.

Starfield is a prime example of that, it's a game that started out life with a budget that clearly took Playstation revenue in mind, was taken exclusive , and now for various reasons failed to grow the Xbox console market share, and the decision to make it exclusive has robbed it of playstation revenue.

I am shocked it took this long for someone to say this. And you are even being nice by only talking about console sales, taking those games and making them exclusive, while at the same time making them available day 1 on a service... makes for some short-sighted and bad math.

And this is why I have decided to stop saying anything about MS, they have just made bad decision after bad decision after bad decision and what is even more disturbing, is that their fans, who should be calling them out on their choices, are equally as clueless.

What I find even funnier, is when people say that their "games" problem is being solved due to all these acquisitions, has it occurred to anyone that all those acquisitions are only acquiring games that were on or coming to the Xbox and PC regardless? All they have done is take what was otherwise also coming to the PS and make sure that it wouldn't. Now imagine after doing all that their sales are still this poor... The craziest thing would be if they would still make a good number of those games also come to the PS because that's where the money is.

Yup... $80B well spent.

I still think they should be aiming for over 30 million by end of year 3 now the shortages are well and truly over.

If they don't do something crazy to sell like 13 million units next year I think it's joever.

How many units are they on track to sell this year? If it's less than what they sold last year, then there is no chance that they sell more next year than they did this year. But I am not even looking at that, what is important next year is what happens with COD. I guess that they make it available day 1 on gamepass. If even with that and hellblade2 they still can't move more consoles next year than they did this year, then they might as well pack it up.

 

[Astray]

That's probably why they should go with multiplatform publishers. If they exclude PlayStation they are essentially eliminating a huge stream of revenue. And if anything was proven is that PlayStation consumers can live without those titles.

I think Starfield and Redfall were both tests for how games would do when excluding PlayStation, now Redfall would have failed regardless because the game was a disaster and wouldn't have sold even as a multi-plat. But Starfield basically proved that taking things exclusive just doesn't pay enough dividends to warrant the loss of Playstation revenue.

They should aim at buying studios that are Xbox centric and avoid harming the majority of consumers.

What studios would satisfy this criteria though? Xbox is completely outside the loop for most mainstream gamers, so it's a fool's folly to base your business around their platform.

 

[NeoGiffer]

PS5 about 75M and Xbox about 34M off the top of my head

Thanks. Well let's just say 100 million then. Now if around half of those users buy GTA VI preorder/launch that's nearly 3.5 billion if the game is $70. I recall V made 1 billion in 3 days which was the fastest ever entertainment based product to get there that fast.

VI will make that just a few hours easily after release. Wow.

 

[StereoVsn]

ATK IPs aren't enough to secure a market position.
It's delusional to think that way, specially if you need to wait 10 years to implement that plan (because COD is the IP that really matters) and then wait another year to see the result.
I'm not sure Xbox as a platform can survive 10 years.

Yep, COD is the big one and hell I don’t see a new Diablo for like 6-7 years anyways either. D4 isn’t going to be pulled from PS.

And for Doom, if they don’t go Multiplatform their sales / reach / MP numbers will tank. I can easily see Doom going to PS5 and Switch 2, but of course you never know.

 

[Moridianae]

Sony has hit after hit, even if their showcase wasn't ideal this year.

Next year, they come in quickly with Last of Us 2 Remaster, FFVII Rebirth, Rise of the Ronin. Three more exclusives(I know the first one is debatable, but still) that continue their streak of something high quality to offer that isn't on any other system.

We still don't know what surprises they have in store, but it's a fair take to say 2024 will be yet another year they perform very, very well.

If they do a small price cut on the PS5 in lieu of the PS5 Pro releasing, even better.

Microsoft just...look--I like some stuff they do, but they've shown time and time again they aren't fit.

Constantly doing something folks don't want(Xbox One getting torched over online, used games, etc.) or pushing a "Netflix for games" that isn't what people want.

 

[StereoVsn]

I still think they should be aiming for over 30 million by end of year 3 now the shortages are well and truly over.

If they don't do something crazy to sell like 13 million units next year I think it's joever.

I mean what can they do? They dropped XSX to $350 and that’s a price that they are probably losing $200 per console. XSS was $200 and even cheaper with some deals.

Like where do they go, drop both to $300/150 and lose a few more $billion on that? Uncle Satya will pull the funding at some point.

Because a few $bil here, a few $bil there and $80 bil in acquisitions… now you are talking real money.

What they need to do is produce good games that are system sellers… but Avowed or Hellblade aren’t going to be that. So next year sales are likely to be worse.

 

[Horseganador]

Those almost 28 million that Ampere gives to Xbox at the end of 2023 are very difficult to believe, in the USA at the end of November it had 12.5 million, in the UK it will have 2.5 million, rounding off with December it will have about 16 million in its territories stronger, to think that in Europe, Japan, 12 million Xboxes have been sold is surreal.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

I think Starfield and Redfall were both tests for how games would do when excluding PlayStation, now Redfall would have failed regardless because the game was a disaster and wouldn't have sold even as a multi-plat. But Starfield basically proved that taking things exclusive just doesn't pay enough dividends to warrant the loss of Playstation revenue.

You are being nice... Starfield was never any sort of test. The cut off the PS platform on that even before the ink had dried on their Bethesda acquisition. They were already singing coming to gamepass and xbox exclusive before even showing the footage of the game.

No, they made that game exclusive because they thought it was going to be their game of the generation. That is was going to make Xbox console/gamepass adoption skyrocket.

Let's call a spade a spade.

 

[Ronin_7]

Sony needs to make a deal NOW to get Gamepass and physical al la cart Xbox studios sales on PS. This is when your negotiating position will be strongest. You don't wait until their sales start improving and come groveling.

You say now, when you're at your strongest and they at their weakest that, yeah we'll let Gamepass on here, but we get a cut of every sub on OUR hardware. Also only your studio's games cause we are not cutting into third party sales on our platform. ALSO you offer them full price on our store with our usual cut AND physical copies must be sold. Take it

Eventually Xbox sales will improve which is precisely why it needs to be now. When the ball starts rolling from all these studios you will have missed your opportunity

#delusionalposts

 

[Luminoth-4545]

Calendar Year Shipments

NSW

2017 - 14.86M (10 months)
2018 - 17.41M
2019 - 20.21M
2020 - 27.39M
2021 - 23.67M
2022 - 19.01M
2023 - 16.40M sell through estimate, shipped 16.40M?
Total - 138.86M?

PS5

2020 - 4.50M (2 months)
2021 - 12.80M
2022 - 14.80M
2023 - 22.50M sell through estimate, shipped 24.00M?
Total - 56.10M?

(Shipped should be a decent amount higher than sell through in 2023 for PS5 due to a lack of inventory in stores at the beginning of the year).

XBS

2020 - 3.10M est. (2 months)
2021 - 9.30M est.
2022 - 8.70M est.
2023 - 7.60M sell through estimate, shipped 7.60M?
Total - 28.70M?

With these Ampere estimates expect something like this for holiday quarter shipments: PS5 - 9.5M, NSW - 6.5M and XBS - 3.4M.

 

[Tsaki]

Thanks. Well let's just say 100 million then. Now if around half of those users buy GTA VI preorder/launch that's nearly 3.5 billion if the game is $70. I recall V made 1 billion in 3 days which was the fastest ever entertainment based product to get there that fast.

VI will make that just a few hours easily after release. Wow.

Yep. There will also be GTA6 copies sold through people that will buy PS5/Series for the first time for that game specifically (many PC gamers)

 

[DenchDeckard]

I am shocked it took this long for someone to say this. And you are even being nice by only talking about console sales, taking those games and making them exclusive, while at the same time making them available day 1 on a service... makes for some short-sighted and bad math.

And this is why I have decided to stop saying anything about MS, they have just made bad decision after bad decision after bad decision and what is even more disturbing, is that their fans, who should be calling them out on their choices, are equally as clueless.

What I find even funnier, is when people say that their "games" problem is being solved due to all these acquisitions, has it occurred to anyone that all those acquisitions are only acquiring games that were on or coming to the Xbox and PC regardless? All they have done is take what was otherwise also coming to the PS and make sure that it wouldn't. Now imagine after doing all that their sales are still this poor... The craziest thing would be if they would still make a good number of those games also come to the PS because that's where the money is.

Yup... $80B well spent.


How many units are they on track to sell this year? If it's less than what they sold last year, then there is no chance that they sell more next year than they did this year. But I am not even looking at that, what is important next year is what happens with COD. I guess that they make it available day 1 on gamepass. If even with that and hellblade2 they still can't move more consoles next year than they did this year, then they might as well pack it up.

I mean what can they do? They dropped XSX to $350 and that’s a price that they are probably losing $200 per console. XSS was $200 and even cheaper with some deals.

Like where do they go, drop both to $300/150 and lose a few more $billion on that? Uncle Satya will pull the funding at some point.

Because a few $bil here, a few $bil there and $80 bil in acquisitions… now you are talking real money.

What they need to do is produce good games that are system sellers… but Avowed or Hellblade aren’t going to be that. So next year sales are likely to be worse.

If I was MS, and had invested the amount of money they had. Taking into account the ABK deal passed, like 2 to 3 months ago.

I would sign off another few hundred million to do a serious push. The pricing on the console needs to permanently drop. And work on a redesign on the interim. Using that few hundred million to support the pricing.

I would then get all ABK games on gamepass ASAP and all consoles come with a free three months.

Then they need a seriously solid year of releases and exciting announcements. More Fable footage, gameplay with a release date. Gears 6 unveiling. And more surprises.

Where are all these games they have been working on. Contraband etc. Isn't that contraband game made by the just cause or mad max devs? That could be awesome and must have been getting worked on for years.

Far too much silence in the gaming world for my liking and Microsoft should be talking about game releases like Nintendo would.

Just my opinion.

Top that off with updates to starfield dlc and qol updates etc.

 

[Flabagast]

You are being nice... Starfield was never any sort of test. The cut off the PS platform on that even before the ink had dried on their Bethesda acquisition. They were already singing coming to gamepass and xbox exclusive before even showing the footage of the game.

No, they made that game exclusive because they thought it was going to be their game of the generation. That is was going to make Xbox console/gamepass adoption skyrocket.

Let's call a spade a spade.

Yes, just looking at economical terms Starfield must have been a catastrophic failure and most probably missed all the business KPIs targets that were assigned to it, by a good margin

 

[MasterCornholio]

If I was MS, and had invested the amount of money they had. Taking into account the ABK deal passed, like 2 to 3 months ago.

I would sign off another few hundred million to do a serious push. The pricing on the console needs to permanently drop. And work on a redesign on the interim. Using that few hundred million to support the pricing.

I would then get all ABK games on gamepass ASAP and all consoles come with a free three months.

Then they need a seriously solid year of releases and exciting announcements. More Fable footage, gameplay with a release date. Gears 6 unveiling. And more surprises.

Where are all these games they have been working on. Contraband etc. Isn't that contraband game made by the just cause or mad max devs? That could be awesome and must have been getting worked on for years.

Far too much silence in the gaming world for my liking and Microsoft should be talking about game releases like Nintendo would.

Just my opinion.

Top that off with updates to starfield dlc and qol updates etc.

Doesn't sound like that would work IMO. Plus it could potentially harm the brand even more.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Doesn't sound like that would work IMO. Plus it could potentially harm the brand even more.

They need games. What else can they do and what about what I said would hard the brand?

They made all these moves to push game pass. They can't push gamepass without console sales.

So if they are serious they need to do something drastic. They can't be the same price as ps5. It's not working.

To put my point simply.

Drop the price of the console
Announce and release games
Push game pass

I can't see how any of that can damage the brand?

 

[MasterCornholio]

They need games. What else can they do and what about what I said would hard the brand?

They made all these moves to push game pass. They can't push gamepass without console sales.

So if they are serious they need to do something drastic. They can't be the same price as ps5. It's not working.

To put my point simply.

Drop the price of the console
Announce and release games
Push game pass

I can't see how any of that can damage the brand?

Dropping the price further can hurt the brand. They certainly don't want people to think the low price means there's something wrong with the platform.

A cheap Chinese console perception is what they don't want.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Dropping the price further can hurt the brand. They certainly don't want people to think the low price means there's something wrong with the platform.

Oh, I don't mean drop it further. I mean leaving it at the current price. It needs to be a peamemt drop.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Oh, I don't mean drop it further. I mean leaving it at the current price. It needs to be a peamemt drop.

Depends if the current price drop is even helping them. I don't believe pricing is an issue that they have.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Depends if the current price drop is even helping them. I don't believe pricing is an issue that they have.

Pricing and games is what I think is the issue.

They need a killer show in January and to start showing all these games they've had in the pipeline for years. Announce dates etc.

Sony had one game last year, they've never had that happen in all the years they've been in the games industry. We have no idea what they have from first party in 2024 either.

Microsoft need to take any advantage they can get and announcing games is the only way right now.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Pricing and games is what I think is the issue.

They need a killer show in January and to start showing all these games they've had in the pipeline for years. Announce dates etc.

Sony had one game last year, they've never had that happen in all the years they've been in the games industry. We have no idea what they have from first party in 2024 either.

Microsoft need to take any advantage they can get and announcing games is the only way right now.

The truth is they don't need a ton of 1st party games to sell their system. Sony has already proven that. They just need to convince people that the system is worth buying. Truth is people play games other than 1st party titles on the platform. Games are never an issue on Xbox or PlayStation if you look at 3rd parties as well.

 

[DenchDeckard]

The truth is they don't need a ton of 1st party games to sell their system. Sony has already proven that. They just need to convince people that the system is worth buying. Truth is people play games other than 1st party titles on the platform. Games are never an issue on Xbox or PlayStation if you look at 3rd parties as well.

This is exactly why they need strong first party ip.

Thanks to ps4 and their awesome start to the gen, Sony is the go to option for third party games and Sony first party ip.

MS has to grab the attention of people to make them want to purchase the console. To do that they need great software at an affordable price.

Just my opinion.

 

[StereoVsn]

If I was MS, and had invested the amount of money they had. Taking into account the ABK deal passed, like 2 to 3 months ago.

I would sign off another few hundred million to do a serious push. The pricing on the console needs to permanently drop. And work on a redesign on the interim. Using that few hundred million to support the pricing.

I would then get all ABK games on gamepass ASAP and all consoles come with a free three months.

Then they need a seriously solid year of releases and exciting announcements. More Fable footage, gameplay with a release date. Gears 6 unveiling. And more surprises.

Where are all these games they have been working on. Contraband etc. Isn't that contraband game made by the just cause or mad max devs? That could be awesome and must have been getting worked on for years.

Far too much silence in the gaming world for my liking and Microsoft should be talking about game releases like Nintendo would.

Just my opinion.

Top that off with updates to starfield dlc and qol updates etc.

That’s a ton more money to spend with unclear consequences though. Frankly the most logical push as far as revenue is concerned is to just go 3rd party for the most part, convert Xbox into streaming (long term) and make a ton of cash on software and subs like MS does with their other product lines.

They are just not good at hardware / software combo in the long run. Windows Phone, MS accessories hardware, Surface Hub, Surface line in general, Xbox, etc…

Edit: And don’t forget, MS hardware is essentially dead outside Americas (not sure on situation in countries like Brazil and Mexico), and UK.

It’s dead in Asia, it’s dead in Europe. This won’t change for the foreseeable future unless Sony majorly messes up or they can go exclusive in CoD (10 years away).

 

[MasterCornholio]

This is exactly why they need strong first party ip.

Thanks to ps4 and their awesome start to the gen, Sony is the go to option for third party games and Sony first party ip.

MS has to grab the attention of people to make them want to purchase the console. To do that they need great software at an affordable price.

Just my opinion.

Microsoft owns a ton of devs and have great software at a great price. That's not what their issue is. Their issue is taking people away from PlayStation.

Most people don't usually invest in multiple platforms. Once they are in an ecosystem its difficult to get them away from it especially if they invested a lot into it.

 

[DenchDeckard]

That’s a ton more money to spend with unclear consequences though. Frankly the most logical push as far as revenue is concerned is to just go 3rd party for the most part, convert Xbox into streaming (long term) and make a ton of cash on software and subs like MS does with their other product lines.

They are just not good at hardware / software combo in the long run. Windows Phone, MS accessories hardware, Surface Hub, Surface line in general, Xbox, etc…

I think third party is an option, but I would be surprised if they do it within the next couple of years.

They've only just closed ABK and Sony caused them a lot of headaches. I don't put Microsoft as a business to so easily accept defeat and make a partnership with a company that caused them so many headaches.

In time they may accept it but I think they will want to exhaust all other options first.

 

[Crayon]

This is exactly why they need strong first party ip.

Thanks to ps4 and their awesome start to the gen, Sony is the go to option for third party games and Sony first party ip.

MS has to grab thw attention of people to make them want to purchase the console. To dobthat they need great software at an affordable price.

Just my opinion.

The issue is that they have needed that too long. I'm hearing a lot about how 24 is this make or break year for Xbox. That was this year and the answer was 'break'. It's time to turn the question over to whether or not game pass is going to work with or without Xbox consoles.

 

[DenchDeckard]

The issue is that they have needed that too long. I'm hearing a lot about how 24 is this make or break year for Xbox. That was this year and the answer was 'break'. It's time to turn the question over to whether or not game pass is going to work with or without Xbox consoles.

I completely agree with you. Every year has been the "this year" and I'm fed up with hearing it too.

 

[StereoVsn]

I think third party is an option, but I would be surprised if they do it within the next couple of years.

They've only just closed ABK and Sony caused them a lot of headaches. I don't put Microsoft as a business to so easily accept defeat and make a partnership with a company that caused them so many headaches.

In time they may accept it but I think they will want to exhaust all other options first.

Oh, no doubt. I mean I said from logical perspective but that’s not necessarily the driver here as MS execs have a lot of ego, “career defining moments” and all.

It’s just if you think about it the money paid for ABK and Bethesda were really predicated on multiplatform sales. You cut 1/3 to 1/2 off that and you way overpaid.

But yeah, I expect Xbox to completely flounder next year, attempt something stupid like launching Xbox Next in 2025 or 2026, flop and then start accepting the common sense is leading them to 3rd Party plus the subs in streaming and PC. And possibly Sony aka EA Pass.

 

[Woopah]

That's probably why they should go with multiplatform publishers. If they exclude PlayStation they are essentially eliminating a huge stream of revenue. And if anything was proven is that PlayStation consumers can live without those titles.

They should aim at buying studios that are Xbox centric and avoid harming the majority of consumers.

What independent studios are Xbox centric?

If I was MS, and had invested the amount of money they had. Taking into account the ABK deal passed, like 2 to 3 months ago.

I would sign off another few hundred million to do a serious push. The pricing on the console needs to permanently drop. And work on a redesign on the interim. Using that few hundred million to support the pricing.

I would then get all ABK games on gamepass ASAP and all consoles come with a free three months.

Then they need a seriously solid year of releases and exciting announcements. More Fable footage, gameplay with a release date. Gears 6 unveiling. And more surprises.

Where are all these games they have been working on. Contraband etc. Isn't that contraband game made by the just cause or mad max devs? That could be awesome and must have been getting worked on for years.

Far too much silence in the gaming world for my liking and Microsoft should be talking about game releases like Nintendo would.

Just my opinion.

Top that off with updates to starfield dlc and qol updates etc.

Nintendo can wait and talk about games soon to be released because they publish so many. If Xbox had the same approach as Nintendo, they would have announced hardly anything all year.

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

Pricing and games is what I think is the issue.

They need a killer show in January and to start showing all these games they've had in the pipeline for years. Announce dates etc.

Sony had one game last year, they've never had that happen in all the years they've been in the games industry. We have no idea what they have from first party in 2024 either.

Microsoft need to take any advantage they can get and announcing games is the only way right now.

Brand power(lack of),trust with consumers and games are the biggest issues.

 

[MasterCornholio]

What independent studios are Xbox centric?

The ones that they make.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Brand power(lack of),trust with consumers and games are the biggest issues.

I would also add that some of their execs having the minds of console warriors probably doesn't help. Truth is most people buying these systems are not console warriors so it's a big mistake to try and cater to them. They need to focus more on regular people instead of their most extreme fanbase.

 

[Woopah]

The ones that they make.

As in they should be establishing their own studios instead of buying them?

Or if not, which studios in particular should they buy?

 

[demigod]

Pricing and games is what I think is the issue.

They need a killer show in January and to start showing all these games they've had in the pipeline for years. Announce dates etc.

Sony had one game last year, they've never had that happen in all the years they've been in the games industry. We have no idea what they have from first party in 2024 either.

Microsoft need to take any advantage they can get and announcing games is the only way right now.

Yeah, can’t wait for another xbox direct where they lie to everyone.

 

[MasterCornholio]

As in they should be establishing their own studios instead of buying them?

Or if not, which studios in particular should they buy?

Buying smaller studios and growing them seems to be a good option for them. Buying a huge multiplatform publisher is going to create issues for them especially when it comes to making exclusives.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

7.6m seems a bit high for xbox considering its down more than that in other territories. Do you have the numbers Luminoth-4545 ?

There are no official numbers from Microsoft but i estimated 4.2 million from Jan to Sep (1.2+1.3+1.7) so 3.4 million for the Oct to Dec quarter sounds reasonable, last year i estimated the Oct to Dec quarter at 3.5 million for Comparison.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

I completely agree with you. Every year has been the "this year" and I'm fed up with hearing it too.

What is different now, compared to a decade ago, is that the longer time for AAA game development means sudden pivots are no longer viable.

Release next gen Xbox early? it would have no games at launch made for it.
Changing the types of games they make? The current gen would end before the games even comes out.
Nurture small studios until they become powerhouses? This gen can't wait that long for the same reasons.

Making good quality games is what everyone, not just Microsoft, need to do to succeed in this business. But to see the results of a well made game is like trying to grow an avocado orchard from scratch; you are not going to get to harvest for five years. To succeed now, meant you had to have been doing consistent good work years ago.

Microsoft is facing the greatest issue with being rich; you can't buy TIME. If you waste time you can't buy it back.

Sony was lucky that their PS3 blunder was in a time when they could still make and release AAA games in 2-3 years. They pivoted and focus on making great games that ended up releasing on PS3 in time to buy back people's faith in them. Microsoft can't imitate that performance in 2024 without inventing time dilation tech.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

They should aim at buying studios that are Xbox centric and avoid harming the majority of consumers.

The problem being that after years of mismanagement, no such studios exist besides what MS already owns

 

[Ar¢tos]

The problem being that after years of mismanagement, no such studios exist besides what MS already owns

They could buy the remains of Bioware from EA.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

The issue is that they have needed that too long. I'm hearing a lot about how 24 is this make or break year for Xbox. That was this year and the answer was 'break'. It's time to turn the question over to whether or not game pass is going to work with or without Xbox consoles.

Call me crazy... but I have felt, since gamepass was first announced, that that was the push they should have focused on. Gamepass, the way it has been implemented unknown to many, and apparently including Xbox, was the final nail in the Xbox coffin. I mean, I would think it's common sense, if you make all your exclusives and most games in general, not just 'NOT exclusive" anymore, but available for $15 - $20 a month, you are nurturing a cheap, wait-for deal culture. And also making the absolute best case as to why people should not buy your console. Its like the Anti-Nintendo platform, whereas the PS is in the middle of both.

And if you look at the XS sales compared to the XB1 and the 360 before it, that ill-advised gamepass strategy has been 1000% successful. What is happening now, is exactly what was going to happen, and its what I personally predicted would happen a full year before the XS consoles launched. And I am not the only one, so makes me wonder how so many neutrals could see it but Xbox couldn't. Then again, in 2019 on ERA when I said thanks to gamepass the XS consoles would struggle to even do as well as the XB1, I would have been called a troll. Though to me it was just common sense.

How can the gamepass model work? I have a decent enough PC, with a 3080. And over the last 4 years, I have paid for all of two months' worth of gamepass on average every year. Because two months each year, is all the time I need to play whatever exclusive MS has each year. And I can't be the only one doing that. But one thing for certain is this, MS has trained me to NEVER buy anything they make at full price or even buy their console when I already have a PC. Think about this, as is I seldom buy games on PS atr full price, usually opting to wait for the price to drop to $50 or even $60. But even at that, for what it cost me to buy FF16, I have played the best Xbox and gamepass had to offer for 2 years. Thank you, Microsoft.

I don't get it really, MS is spending all this money and effort fighting with sony, when who they really should be worried about is Steam who will build an empire that dethrones them from within them. The singular worst thing that can happen to MS and Windows is if Steam makes a curated Linux-based gaming and productivity-focused OS. And does it right.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

Just another thing about pivoting from disaster to success; in the case of Nintendo, they manage to repair the damage WiiU did by releasing Switch.

But note HOW they did it; they fixed the hardware, but otherwise remastered all the major WiiU games and release them on Switch a 2nd time. The greatest example being BotW. This is because it would have been impossible to suddenly make and release switch-exclusive games after the sped up hardware release schedule.

Nintendo did NOT have a software problem, their output were always good. So once they release their next gen early they manage to get their customers back. But how Nintendo succeed is why Xbox can't copy them. There is nothing WRONG with Series X as a gaming box. Releasing a new Xbox would have changed nothing. Xbox has a software output problem and almost the reverse of the WiiU situation.

 

[magnumpy]

man oh man I cannot wait for the new Nintendo console!!1

combine that with the PS5 revision (already out) and the Steam Deck OLED revision (also already out) and the new nVidia GPUs (coming ~beginning of 2024?) the next few years are very exciting for gaming

 

[Crayon]

Call me crazy... but I have felt, since gamepass was first announced, that that was the push they should have focused on. Gamepass, the way it has been implemented unknown to many, and apparently including Xbox, was the final nail in the Xbox coffin. I mean, I would think it's common sense, if you make all your exclusives and most games in general, not just 'NOT exclusive" anymore, but available for $15 - $20 a month, you are nurturing a cheap, wait-for deal culture. And also making the absolute best case as to why people should not buy your console. Its like the Anti-Nintendo platform, whereas the PS is in the middle of both.

And if you look at the XS sales compared to the XB1 and the 360 before it, that ill-advised gamepass strategy has been 1000% successful. What is happening now, is exactly what was going to happen, and its what I personally predicted would happen a full year before the XS consoles launched. And I am not the only one, so makes me wonder how so many neutrals could see it but Xbox couldn't. Then again, in 2019 on ERA when I said thanks to gamepass the XS consoles would struggle to even do as well as the XB1, I would have been called a troll. Though to me it was just common sense.

How can the gamepass model work? I have a decent enough PC, with a 3080. And over the last 4 years, I have paid for all of two months' worth of gamepass on average every year. Because two months each year, is all the time I need to play whatever exclusive MS has each year. And I can't be the only one doing that. But one thing for certain is this, MS has trained me to NEVER buy anything they make at full price or even buy their console when I already have a PC. Think about this, as is I seldom buy games on PS atr full price, usually opting to wait for the price to drop to $50 or even $60. But even at that, for what it cost me to buy FF16, I have played the best Xbox and gamepass had to offer for 2 years. Thank you, Microsoft.

I don't get it really, MS is spending all this money and effort fighting with sony, when who they really should be worried about is Steam who will build an empire that dethrones them from within them. The singular worst thing that can happen to MS and Windows is if Steam makes a curated Linux-based gaming and productivity-focused OS. And does it right.

For me the beginning of the end was releasing games on pc. It was a very short transition to doing all of them day and date. When they announced that, we got a deluge of posts from all corners of the internet saying that console sales don't matter to this very day. Crucially, this was when the xbox was doing poorly, and windows(10) store with it's uwp containers was spinning up. Back then when they really did have a chance of just making good games and turning things around, someone at ms working on windows store said they needed those xbox games, too. I am sure spencer would have rather not done that. That was a real change in strategy. Or maybe you could call it a compromise in strategy.

Then one day they announced game pass and every following day we heard it being name dropped 400 times on the forum. It was petal to the metal. So that makes two very sudden shifts that cannibalized software sales on the console. Meanwhile there was no perceptible adjustment in strategy that reflected the "consoles don't matter" mantra.

They have painted themselves into a corner. With those two moves. Both were sudden and both were getting more rope from ms as the consoles declined.

I do not know if this is coherent. I should get some coffee.

 

[kazuyamishima]

There’s no way in hell Switch is doing 16.8m last year.

It will do just a little bit more than 15m.

 

[Bonfires Down]

I know it's over
And it never really began
But in my heart it was so real