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[MistBreeze]

I think sony nailed it from day 1 with ps5

-Launch day- launch window games quality and diversity was maybe one of the best launch linups ever: astro playroom best pack in game ever - demons souls remake - ratchet and clank rift apart - miles morales

- heavy hitters AAA games horizon - god of war ragnarok - gran turismo 7 - returnal - spider man 2 in span of just 3 years

Add second party and 3rd party and 2023 one of the best years in gaming quality wise

It is maybe one of if not the best first 3 years in a console life span period

Xbox on the other hand lack focus and vision

Being all about gamepass and day one games devalue the brand

It makes xbox owners expect every game to be free which lead to less digital sales which goes against the console philosophy in the first place

Consoles depends the most on making profits from games sold through its digital store

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The issue now is, how do you proceed post-Holiday sales? Do you just jack the price up to 500 again? That would just create a further incentive to not buy the machines unless a similar cut happens again.

This part is more anecdotal, but the astounding lack of Xbox shelfspace in the big markets is an absolute indication that whatever their strategy is, it's not really working.

As a side note, I think their failure this generation is far more interesting to discuss than last gen because it's just so multi-faceted, whereas for last gen, everyone can just point to the infamous Don Mattrick video and call it a day.

But here there's a lot to debate: Was Gamepass a net positive or a net negative? Was the mass purchasing of publishers and studios a net positive, or did it just accelerate the need for the division to start actually earning money? Was the ecosystem a good idea overall or partially or not at all?

If you've waited 3 years to get an XSX and you've passed on getting one for 350, why do you buy one for 500 dollars? At best, you'd wait until next holiday season when you know the price should drop again or be even cheaper. Like what moron is buying this in February at 500 dollars?

I think they'll have to keep the price down to sell anything in Q1 and Q2.

I think the lack of shelf space is retailers not wanting Xbox units through out the year. I think they made an exception thinking they could move units during the holiday, but that was a bad move and now we're seeing the heavy discounting to get rid of it by the end of the year, but if that is the case, these retailers aren't going to carry Xbox next year. They're going to get rid of the stock and then its a wrap. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

I think it is super disingenuous for people to focus on the X1 as the failure for the XBS. It's one of the laziest arguments, and if Microsoft themselves make it, they should just pack up, because why should anyone expect any improvement in circumstances going forward? Just throw in the towel then.

GamePass is why the Xbox brand is where it is. They've devalued games.

PC Day 1 is why the Xbox brand is where it is. They've devalued exclusives. The Xbox fanbase always leaned more heavily PC in the first place, now you're telling that audience you can play all those games on PC in a better state AND now Sony is throwing some PC love at you too if you want to play those games, not to mention most PS5 3rd party exclusives are only console exclusives.

It's smart to try to build out your ecosystem. It's why Apple is so successful, but you have to be smart about it. You can go too far and once you've devalued your most important pillar, you can leverage that pillar anymore.

When Netflix went to streaming, they still offered you a package where you could get discs in the mail. They JUST stopped doing the mail in service this year, well after streaming became their primary pillar. They leveraged the revenue from mail in and they only adjusted once the revenue was insignificant.

Sony is putting games on PC, but not to the detriment of PS5 sales. They know that any moves they make in the industry, they'll need to have a strong PS5 to leverage it. VR, Movies, Accessories e.t.c.

 

[MarkMe2525]

The problem is that "outbuy competitor to force it out of business" is anything but healthy. Healthy competition is about presenting better products. Not to use money from one area of dominance to establish another area of dominance with irrelevancy to whether your product better or not.

Yet here we are and Sony is clearly dominating the high end console market. This engine that's keeps this train going is heavy investment into their software. The competition is pushing Sony to pour money, time, and talent into their games and Sony players are reaping the rewards.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

I don't think he cares, Microsoft are not even in competition with little old Sony, they're getting ready for battle with the big boys.

I mean, sure. "Little old Sony" beat that ass enough times as it is. Try again elsewhere.

 

[jm89]

I don't think he cares, Microsoft are not even in competition with little old Sony, they're getting ready for battle with the big boys.

He doesn't care so much that his put the series x on firesale to desperatley get people to buy it.

Oh he cares, cause he knows where he will be forced to pivot to with the series consoles disasterous sales.

 

[Shane89]

so it's doing worse than the ps4?

consindering one full year of shortage, no, it's doing a lot better.

 

[Roronoa Zoro]

There is a new BlazBlue coming out?

My mistake that was a late night post lol. Granblue Fantasy Relink was what I was thinking of

 

[damidu]

That's really great to hear, Phil.

this is just online dating levels sad, lol

 

[Heisenberg007]

I don't think he cares, Microsoft are not even in competition with little old Sony, they're getting ready for battle with the big boys.

Oh shit. Do Phil Spencer and Satya Nadella know about this? They have been wasting their time and energy trying to compete with Sony and the PS5.

Phil spent time crafting a plan to "win this console generation" ...

Phil Spencer reaffirming Satya Nadella that Xbox Series will sell well ...

Microsoft has been giving hardware subsidies so they could sell more consoles ...

Satya has been inquiring about Xbox Series console sales in comparison to PS5 sales ...

 

[Unknown Soldier]

But here there's a lot to debate: Was Gamepass a net positive or a net negative? Was the mass purchasing of publishers and studios a net positive, or did it just accelerate the need for the division to start actually earning money? Was the ecosystem a good idea overall or partially or not at all?

Microsoft came up with Gamepass because they saw what Netflix was doing and thought "Let's copy this because we can destroy Sony and selling physical games in much the same way Netflix has destroyed physical media for movies." So the irony was that Gamepass ended up being tremendously value destructive....to the Xbox brand. It ended up not doing anything at all to Sony, because Sony kept on pumping out solid first party titles year in and year out and people saw value in buying things they like. This isn't even some unique talent Sony has, because Nintendo has never wavered from their traditional model of pumping out solid games and selling them to happy buyers. Nintendo has more than 20 first-party titles which are 10+ million sellers on the Switch.

The problem that Gamepass created for Microsoft is they needed a steady pipeline to produce games to put on the service, and quite frankly after a decade of mismanagement their existing first party studios had made exactly Jack Shit. So they went out and started buying lots of studios, first smaller indie studios like Double Fine and Obsidian, then larger studios like Ninja Theory, and finally they decided to go all-in on their strategy to devalue gaming in order to make selling games worthless so Sony would go out of business. They bought Zenimax/Bethesda and immediately made all in-development and future titles Xbox exclusive in order to ensure Gamepass would get exclusive content but also deprive Sony of that content. However, this proved to be a massive strategic error, even if tactically it made sense at the time. When MS then decided they were going to go big or go home and buy ABK, they immediately ran into tremendous government regulator opposition because duh they literally just bought Z/B and made everything exclusive, which anyone who isn't retarded would understand was a blatantly anti-competitive action.

So now MS had to fight to get ABK acquisition over the finish line. Their obvious original goal was to buy ABK and immediately make CoD Xbox exclusive. This would deprive Sony of one of their biggest third party profits, bring an immediate content and subscription driver to Gamepass, and also drive sales of Xbox consoles. I'm sure MS also hoped a mass abandonment of Playstation would occur when most CoD gamers were forced to switch to Xbox. Too bad government regulators took one look at Z/B and were like LOL NO. So MS made what I believe was a critical strategic error. Instead of just dropping the ABK acquisition and moving on, they decided we're just going to buy them anyways and no one can stop us. They signed the infamous 10 year contracts with Nintendo and Sony, promising CoD would not be taken away from their platforms. From the perspective of the original intent of the ABK acquisition, this was basically giving up entirely on why they were spending $70 billion in the first place!

Then they also found another hurdle trying to get the UK to approve it because of The Power of the Cloud™. So they then also signed away the rights to cloud gaming for 15 years, another ridiculous strategic blunder. MS ended up spending $70 billion and getting basically nothing of value to actually get people into their ecosystem and lock them in. What's the point of MS owning ABK if they are going to still publish CoD for Nintendo and Sony anyways, plus make it widely available on multiple non-MS controlled cloud services? Is showing the Microsoft logo when starting up CoD worth $70 billion? I can tell you that if Apple were watching this unfolding, they would be laughing their asses off, because Apple knows how an ecosystem is built and MS has no fucking idea what they are doing.

 

[Ogbert]

The PS5 is a great console but the generation has been broadly underwhelming.

 

[Katajx]

Rise of the ronin, helldiver's, FF7, granBlue Relink?

It’s quite the 1st quarter. 2023 overall was a pretty good year, and I’m curious about Q2 and Q3.

 

[Pelta88]

I've never heard an analyst use the word "Feasting."

 

[mckmas8808]

140 is possible but extremely difficult, especially with the contraction of the Japanese console market and the lack of AAA Japanese centric games.

140 would require basically all cards to be played perfectly. I honestly don't see it happening. It would take the Switch 2 being a failure, serious price cuts for base and digital ps5, ps5 pro launching at 500 and being double the power of the base model, and maybe even the XBS being discontinued or entirely uneffective very early.

To put things into frame:

The PS4 sold 117 million units and the X1 sold 58 million units. It's difficult to gauge the impact the Switch had on either of their sales, but let's throw in the Wii U's sales as a bit of buffer for the generation. That's an extra 14 million units. With some growth, you could see the market being 200 million units for the generation.

For Sony to get to 140, it means that the Switch 2 can't eat into PS5 demand AT ALL and the Xbox has to drop from 60 million to 40 million and more realistically probably 35 million as some of these will go to PC instead of PS5.

XBS is already at 25 million.

Now if the Switch 2 is a complete failure, the PS5 Pro is a smash hit, Sony releases some kid friendly PS5 games, the PS5 drops in price tremendously at or before the Switch 2 release, maybe the PS5 can eat into some of that Switch gaming market, which would help it climb to those numbers.

That they don't have any heavy hitters scheduled for 2024 is a big concern, but GTA6 could have a huge impact on PS5's trajectory as well, particularly with the Pro model if they get things right with it.

I agree with the bolded and think that will happen. Well....everything but the Switch 2 bombing. I don't think it will affect the PS5 much. People seem to know and understand that having both doesn't complicate things much. Like will GTA6 even be on the Switch 2?

Plus I DO NOT believe the generations need to be stuck at 200 million. I'm a big believer that the ceiling is higher than 200 million actually. Plus don't forget that Final Fantasy 7: Rebirth comes out Feb 2024. That is a heavy hitter!

 

[TheGodfather07]

I don't think he cares, Microsoft are not even in competition with little old Sony, they're getting ready for battle with the big boys.

This makes no sense. Sony and Nintendo ARE the big boys in this industry. Microsoft is the little one. Get out of your mother's basement from time to time. You sound like one of those guys who gets his worldview from delusional lunatics on twitter.

 

[Del_X]

Personally I think that going with 3-6 months will only hurt them financially if all opportunities included.
There is a lifecycle of PS game - first it sold at full price, then it goes for some sales, then it permanently drops price and goes to sales at even lower price, then revenue touch the bottom and game used as incentive to buy PS+ and ported to PC (usually around 2 years time point). Games ported to PC when most opportunities to make money on PS is spent and game used as quick cash grab and marketing tool to penetrate into PC space. For these purposes PS games doing just fine on PC.

The PC ports aren't selling particularly well and I don't know anyone seeing these games on PC who then thinks "yeah I need a PlayStation so I don't have to wait." Maybe you're right. Something has to explain the 6.8-7% margin Sony makes on PlayStation vs the 12% MSFT makes on Xbox. There's a reason Xbox stays in the game despite floundering on console sales. Is it management? Time spent spinning wheels on canceled project? I honestly don't know.

 

[Felessan]

The PC ports aren't selling particularly well and I don't know anyone seeing these games on PC who then thinks "yeah I need a PlayStation so I don't have to wait." Maybe you're right. Something has to explain the 6.8-7% margin Sony makes on PlayStation vs the 12% MSFT makes on Xbox. There's a reason Xbox stays in the game despite floundering on console sales. Is it management? Time spent spinning wheels on canceled project? I honestly don't know.

I would say that their PC ports sells impressive. 3 mil copies full/near full price is a huge number for PC overall. AAA market on PCis rather small (coz mainly it's GaaS market) and tends to concentrate to a few titles, that PC enthusiats tends to stick in their argument, missing the whole picture. You can google estimations of Steam revenue per game and you will be surprised that number of games with net sales more than 100 mio are counting in low tens. Which is really a joke for console space standards.
I don't really know what MS is thinking, because in my opinion day1 PC release is simply stupid - you shouldn't sacrifice chance to grow in 25 bil market with full benefit of close ecosystem (extra revenue from store cuts and royalty) to put game on 6-8 bil market just to grab some quick buck. Day1 release in this case means that MS simply gave up and don't think that their games can really turn tide against Sony dominance, so they pull out all the money they can while they can, even though it hurts their xbox brand heavily.
MS PC strategy has another flaw - share of PC vs overall gaming market is larger the "further" (mainly economical) it is from US. And MS as a brand doesn't really popular there. And content wise... there is lot to ask... MS tried to going global during X360 era and they were doing just good, but for some reason it abrutply ended somewhere around 2010 and all went back to focus on main territory. And if you have US centric games - you will have US centric player base.

Don't bring things you barely understands. Sony spends a lot of money in "investments" lately - these means outright cost with expectation future possible profits (like Marvel agreement). Jim basically pit SIE business into "growth" mode where money spent on expansion (and revenue expansion costs *a lot* of money) and not on maintaining high profit margin. Netflix had very low margins for years, even after they became famous, because at that time they concentrated on expanding and not optimizing costs (that help improve margins but consequently inhibit grow). Sony can simply cut in half their AAA output/cost and their margin will skyrocket, given that they have a huge revenue basis at relative low maintanance cost. And they will loose a little on that - they already pretty much win generation and can "monetize" their huge lead in install base. But it will hurt foundation of future gens and competition from other sources (Nin, mobile massively migrating multiplatform etc).

 

[Del_X]

...
Don't bring things you barely understands.

I understand 12% is more than 6.8% and one underperforms a basic S&P index. The goal of a company is to make money. If Sony's margins keep shrinking, it's simply unsustainable.

 

[jm89]

The PC ports aren't selling particularly well and I don't know anyone seeing these games on PC who then thinks "yeah I need a PlayStation so I don't have to wait." Maybe you're right. Something has to explain the 6.8-7% margin Sony makes on PlayStation vs the 12% MSFT makes on Xbox. There's a reason Xbox stays in the game despite floundering on console sales. Is it management? Time spent spinning wheels on canceled project? I honestly don't know.

What margin are you talking about here? Profit?

 

[Negotiator101]

Oh shit. Do Phil Spencer and Satya Nadella know about this? They have been wasting their time and energy trying to compete with Sony and the PS5.

Phil spent time crafting a plan to "win this console generation" ...

Phil Spencer reaffirming Satya Nadella that Xbox Series will sell well ...

Microsoft has been giving hardware subsidies so they could sell more consoles ...

Satya has been inquiring about Xbox Series console sales in comparison to PS5 sales ...

“When you talk about Nintendo and Sony, we have a ton of respect for them, but we see Amazon and Google as the main competitors going forward,” he said. “That’s not to disrespect Nintendo and Sony, but the traditional gaming companies are somewhat out of position.

 

[NonPhixion]

“When you talk about Nintendo and Sony, we have a ton of respect for them, but we see Amazon and Google as the main competitors going forward,” he said. “That’s not to disrespect Nintendo and Sony, but the traditional gaming companies are somewhat out of position.

Yes we are quite aware he conceded defeat to Nintendo and Sony. That’s why he changed goal posts. Keep up.

 

[FriulHado]

career moment

any congratulations from phil spencer?

To the gamers that will play Cod PS5 of course

 

[Del_X]

What margin are you talking about here? Profit?

Yes.

Xbox: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/93375/xbox-profits-revealed-in-new-ftc-leak/index.html
PlayStation: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/9128...-revenue-operating-profit-drops-40/index.html

 

[jm89]

Yes.

Xbox: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/93375/xbox-profits-revealed-in-new-ftc-leak/index.html
PlayStation: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/9128...-revenue-operating-profit-drops-40/index.html

Nope that isn't comparible at all as mentioned by derek who posted it, his even guessing what it actually might be he doesn't know him self.

Comparing this number with the other Big 3 players isn't exactly straightforward. The accountability methods may be different and we're not entirely sure how Microsoft calculates its accountability margin, but it appears to be some sort of value target that the Xbox games division is trying to deliver on a specific profit basis.

He even took down the chart where he was comparing profit

 

[Del_X]

Nope that isn't comparible at all as mentioned by derek who posted it.

He even took down the chart where he was comparing profit

Oh damn. I still find it unreal how public companies don't have to disclose this level of detail per division, effectively leaving everyone guessing.

 

[Topher]

“When you talk about Nintendo and Sony, we have a ton of respect for them, but we see Amazon and Google as the main competitors going forward,” he said. “That’s not to disrespect Nintendo and Sony, but the traditional gaming companies are somewhat out of position.

Yeah....but the stuff he said in email he said believing no one would ever read it except for the CEO and CFO of Microsoft. So basically the emails show that the public statement about Google and Amazon was just bullshit.

 

[Felessan]

I understand 12% is more than 6.8% and one underperforms a basic S&P index. The goal of a company is to make money. If Sony's margins keep shrinking, it's simply unsustainable.

And it's wrong. It's layman thinking oversimplifying of how corporate finance works.
The basis of valuation os NPV or DCF. And they are about analyzing future prospects, not concentrating on current values. In reality they are weighed against immediate gains of shareholders (profit margins). And BTW - operating profit is rising - so there is no problem with sustainability.
You can fire all RnD, marketing and 80% of SGA and for next half an year your margin will skyrocket. The question is what will you do after that when you company literally crumbles.

PS. What does profit margins have to do with S&P return? Especially for Japanese company?

 

[Klayzer]

Yeah....but the stuff he said in email he said not believing anyone would ever read it except for CEO of Microsoft. So basically the emails show that the public statement about Google and Amazon was just bullshit

Phil - "Amazon and Google are our real competition"

Gamers - Ugh, neither of those companies sell consoles.

Phil - "My work is done"

Gamers - What the fuck is Phil talking about.

 

[Negotiator101]

Yes we are quite aware he conceded defeat to Nintendo and Sony. That’s why he changed goal posts. Keep up.

That's a 2020 quote you buffoon

 

[Negotiator101]

Yeah....but the stuff he said in email he said believing no one would ever read it except for the CEO and CFO of Microsoft. So basically the emails show that the public statement about Google and Amazon was just bullshit.

One was a public statement, one was not. You do the math

 

[TaylorSwiftFan]

Wow it is so surprisingly refreshing to hear normal people talk about games.

John Campea normal? He’s unhinged.

 

[NonPhixion]

That's a 2020 quote you buffoon

I am aware. It’s almost like he had just went through a whole generation getting destroyed by Nintendo and Sony. Concedes defeat and lets us know who his “real competitors” are, buffoon.

No need for a laughing emoji, I’ll just laugh at you. Hahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

 

[Negotiator101]

I am aware. It’s almost like he had just went through a whole generation getting destroyed by Nintendo and Sony. Concedes defeat and lets us know who his “real competitors” are, buffoon.

No need for a laughing emoji, I’ll just laugh at you. Hahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

You made a stupid comment I called you out on it, that's all that's happened. No need to act like a tit, just take it as a lesson learned and move along

 

[jroc74]

Nope that isn't comparible at all as mentioned by derek who posted it, his even guessing what it actually might be he doesn't know him self.

He even took down the chart where he was comparing profit

It is kinda funny that I keep seeing margins come up lately...and I'm sure its usually referencing this, lol.

Meanwhile, Phil Spencer literally said after raising the price of the Series S in Brazil...its the lowest margins of any region.

Raising the price that much...and still the lowest margins......whew.

Microsoft's Gaming CEO Phil Spencer Backs "Huge" Xbox Series S Price Hike in Brazil

Microsoft's CEO Phil Spencer has backed the company's decision to Xbox price hike in Brazil claiming that it was necessary to uphold business.

wccftech.com

"And even with the price we have now, after the increase, this is, for us, in terms of what we can see from the sales of the Series S [in Brazil], probably the smallest margin in the world of what we get, from the revenue that we managed to get."

 

[NonPhixion]

You made a stupid comment I called you out on it, that's all that's happened. No need to act like a tit, just take it as a lesson learned and move along

What was the stupid part of my comment, ma’am?

 

[EDMIX]

Whats wild, is all of this is before PS5 Pro, GTAVI, Death Stranding 2 and Wolverine.

 

[Klayzer]

What was the stupid part of my comment, ma’am?

You dared to question Phil's bullshit. Just pretend like everything he says is the gospel like they do.

 

[Topher]

One was a public statement, one was not. You do the math

That's pretty much what my last post did.

 

[Taur007]

3:1 ratio between playstation and xbox.

Stay in bed phil and call in sick.

Too bad you can't play sales, those gaas games still coming buddyI'll take Xbox roadmap anyday

 

[rofif]

Not bad. Xbox sucking helps a ton.
But imagine the numbers if Sony actually was more than mid and a bunch of bad decisions this gen

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Not bad. Xbox sucking helps a ton.
But imagine the numbers if Sony actually was more than mid and a bunch of bad decisions this gen

I don't need to imagine those numbers. Nintendo is right over there.

 

[iHaunter]

3:1 ratio between playstation and xbox.

Stay in bed phil and call in sick.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Too bad you can't play sales, those gaas games still coming buddyI'll take Xbox roadmap anyday

I'm totally with you, buddy!

Unrelated to this, by the way, what's the next Xbox game, and what is its release date as per the Xbox roadmap?

 

[Heisenberg007]

One was a public statement, one was not. You do the math

Exactly. One was marketing bullshit; the other was an actual conversation with upper management.

 

[Klayzer]

Exactly. One was marketing bullshit; the other was an actual conversation with upper management.

Dude self owned himself.

 

[PeteBull]

The PS5 is a great console but the generation has been broadly underwhelming.

If only microsoft had leadership/drive like they had in og xbox/early x360 days this would have been amazing gen, but basically atm switch is on his last legs(still selling better than xbox series but its succesor coming 4sure in 2024), so its basically up to ps5 all that time to make gen feel good, with ms dropping the ball so hard

 

[EDMIX]

“When you talk about Nintendo and Sony, we have a ton of respect for them, but we see Amazon and Google as the main competitors going forward,” he said. “That’s not to disrespect Nintendo and Sony, but the traditional gaming companies are somewhat out of position.

Dear god, sir...I know you are not that naive.

If this is how they truly felt, why the fuck would they be saying the complete opposite privately? Why even talk about XB beating PS5? Shit, why the fuck would they buy SEVERAL publishers with the goal of removing support from PlayStation?

So...look man, I'm sure we all have worked for companies before where something happening within the company, like a massive glitch, is not actually PUBLICALLY FUCKING TOLD to people.

Their actions, what they are saying privately very much show they are competing with Nintendo and Sony.

Thats like acting as if Ubisoft is not competing with EA because of a statement they made publicly, no one should be believing any of that shit lol That doesn't even make any fucking sense lol

I mean this about ALL FUCKING COMPANIES! They will not publicly make statements that make them look bad, damage the brand, admit fault etc, but shit man, I thought this was common sense, you telling me a company tells you something and you just hook line and sinker believe it with all your soul or?

The deep lolz, don't do this weird shit man. Its never going to make sense, its why I tell people that if a company tells you a game isn't happening, don't believe em, they tell you they have no plans for this or that.....don't believe them. They would not tell you any way bud. Thus, MS, Sony, Nintendo, EA, etc PUBLIC statements can never be used to prove shit. MOST companies have zero history of just out right saying this weird shit and actually really having some plan for it, its just some PR thing that companies say.

Until MS word privately, match their words publicly and their actions, like putting games on all platforms and just becoming a 3rd party publisher, no one here with any actual common sense will believe some wild PR statement like that.

 

[balls of snow]

They better bring the goods in 2024. I give Sony a break for a sparse year because they put out so much in 2022 but let the floodgates open already.

 

[Heisenberg007]

They better bring the goods in 2024. I give Sony a break for a sparse year because they put out so much in 2022 but let the floodgates open already.

If Q1 2024 is anything to go by, 2024 will be a banger year for PS gamers.

 

[Klayzer]

If Q1 2024 is anything to go by, 2024 will be a banger year for PS gamers.

If you're fan jrpgs, first quarter of 24 is magical.