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Sales-Age Switch officially passes Xbox 360 and PS3 lifetime sales on the road to #1

May 10, 2019
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i deserve this megan rapinoe GIF by Sports GIFs
 
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MrA

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It's suddenly not a console when it's selling well. ;)
it's also both simultaneously ultra over-priced and super cheap and most of the sales are actually for the switch lite despite the regular model making up 3/4s of the current sales and it makes more sense to compare total system sales on the following intervals, 6 months, 18 months, 30 months, as opposed to something silly like totalling year by year.
 

Mozza

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it's also both simultaneously ultra over-priced and super cheap and most of the sales are actually for the switch lite despite the regular model making up 3/4s of the current sales and it makes more sense to compare total system sales on the following intervals, 6 months, 18 months, 30 months, as opposed to something silly like totalling year by year.
Yes those goal posts move a lot on here. ;)
 

Amin_Parker

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By the end of this year it should surpass the Wii and the PS1. And then by the end of next year it should surpass the GB and PS4. And then it's up to Nintendo to make sure that the system stays on the market a bit longer so that it could reach the legendary status of the DS and PS2
 

Woopah

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Given the context of this thread and every other Switch thread....
We had the lowest selling console mentioned.
And we had two consoles that have been discontinued for year's.
But the console that the Switch has been on the market with and is currently the highest selling console of that generation and the second best selling console of a time.
Yeah, why would you mention the PS4?

Wait! I know because it the only one that relevant.

look, Its gonna overtake it so I don't know what the fuss is about.
It depends on the context of the thread. For this one it makes no sense to mention the PS4 in the title since that wasn't one of the console's it passed.
 
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TGO

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It depends on the context of the thread. For this one it makes no sense to mention the PS4 in the title since that wasn't one of the console's it passed.
I wasn't on a about the title, all the threads in general dance around the elephant in the room.
You'd think the PS4 didn't exist.
I just find it weird.
As it stands the Switch is 32 mill away from the PS4,
So I think that's worth mentioning, as it the one it needs to pass rather then bragging about passing last place, while dreaming #1 best selling.
I think it's gonna happen either way
No way the sales are gonna nosedive from its best year yet like the Wii did.
That had bad press and a continued negative game outlook that didn't improve because of the shovelware on the system
The Switch is different
Loads of big new exciting title coming.
And they have the Switch Oled coming out and that's been met with hype and nothing but positivity so it all looks good.
 

Woopah

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I wasn't on a about the title, all the threads in general dance around the elephant in the room.
You'd think the PS4 didn't exist.
I just find it weird.
As it stands the Switch is 32 mill away from the PS4,
So I think that's worth mentioning, as it the one it needs to pass rather then bragging about passing last place, while dreaming #1 best selling.
I think it's gonna happen either way
No way the sales are gonna nosedive from its best year yet like the Wii did.
That had bad press and a continued negative game outlook that didn't improve because of the shovelware on the system
The Switch is different
Loads of big new exciting title coming.
And they have the Switch Oled coming out and that's been met with hype and nothing but positivity so it all looks good.
Once Switch does pass the PS4 I'm sure they'll be a thread about it, and there are threads which compare Switch to the PS4 (the regialr ones for USA, Japan and UK for instance).
 
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MrFunSocks

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Given the context of this thread and every other Switch thread....
We had the lowest selling console mentioned.
And we had two consoles that have been discontinued for year's.
But the console that the Switch has been on the market with and is currently the highest selling console of that generation and the second best selling console of a time.
Yeah, why would you mention the PS4?

Wait! I know because it the only one that relevant.

look, Its gonna overtake it so I don't know what the fuss is about.
I don’t see how the PS4 is the only one that’s relevant when you yourself say it’s going to overtake it for sure? It overtook the 360 and PS3, that’s what the thread is about. No need to mention PS4.

when it overtakes the PS4 I’m pretty sure there will be a thread on here about it.
 
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it's also both simultaneously ultra over-priced and super cheap and most of the sales are actually for the switch lite despite the regular model making up 3/4s of the current sales and it makes more sense to compare total system sales on the following intervals, 6 months, 18 months, 30 months, as opposed to something silly like totalling year by year.
its also that nintendo only ships 100 to a store and then fudges the numbers to say its 1,000,000 :messenger_grinning_sweat::messenger_grinning_sweat:
 

Marty-McFly

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I see it passing the Wii & PSX, that's about it


Btw this is the 4th thread about Switch being on the road to the #1 selling console without a mention of the PS4 🤔

Given the context of this thread and every other Switch thread....
We had the lowest selling console mentioned.
And we had two consoles that have been discontinued for year's.
But the console that the Switch has been on the market with and is currently the highest selling console of that generation and the second best selling console of a time.
Yeah, why would you mention the PS4?
Wait! I know because it the only one that relevant.
look, Its gonna overtake it so I don't know what the fuss is about.
What the?

So in one breath you say it's not going to overtake the PS4 and the next it is? :messenger_tears_of_joy:

Which one is it?
 
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The Switch has a real chance of surpassing the PS2. The PS2 and Switch launched at the same price ($299), but the PS2 price had been cut in half by this point in its lifecycle. Nintendo has somehow managed to keep sales momentum without having to reduce the price. Most of the PS2's sales happened after the price was reduced, and I we could see the same for the Switch. The Switch will REALLY take off once it inevitably hits $149 in a few years.

A price drop is the biggest card any manufacturer can play, and Nintendo still hasn't needed to use it. I don't think people fully understand just how unprecedented the Switch is.
 

Marty-McFly

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The Switch has a real chance of surpassing the PS2. The PS2 and Switch launched at the same price ($299), but the PS2 price had been cut in half by this point in its lifecycle. Nintendo has somehow managed to keep sales momentum without having to reduce the price. Most of the PS2's sales happened after the price was reduced, and I we could see the same for the Switch. The Switch will REALLY take off once it inevitably hits $149 in a few years.

A price drop is the biggest card any manufacturer can play, and Nintendo still hasn't needed to use it. I don't think people fully understand just how unprecedented the Switch is.
I'll say it again as well. Those evergreen titles they keep accumulating that basically live on top of the charts will keep it selling for years to come. It's like they have half a dozen exclusive GTA's and there's only more to come. They may not reach GTA's 150 million, but it took Rockstar many different remasters of the game and nearly a decade to muster those sales on multiple platforms.
 

Captain Toad

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It's suddenly not a console when it's selling well. ;)
Well, it's difficult if you're comparing it to normal home consoles. The Switch is definitely more handheld. Do you count Switch Lite sales in the comparison if you're only comparing home consoles? It literally can't be hooked up to a monitor at all.

And if the Switch is a home console, was the PSP as well? That, unlike the Switch Lite, could be hooked up and played on your television monitor.
 

MrA

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When did it ever sell poorly? It’s a handheld through and through. That’s what it’s marketed as and that’s what majority of the people use it for. They aren’t competing in the console space.
It clearly functions as both quite clearly marketed as both a quick watch of Nintendos marketing emphasizes that superior versatility with people switching between handheld and console mode
According to any available data the system is used about 50/50 docked/undocked and even early adaptors 30% handheld 20% console 50% both,
 

NeoIkaruGAF

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The trolling ITT is beyond belief, lol.


The Switch has a real chance of surpassing the PS2. The PS2 and Switch launched at the same price ($299), but the PS2 price had been cut in half by this point in its lifecycle. Nintendo has somehow managed to keep sales momentum without having to reduce the price. Most of the PS2's sales happened after the price was reduced, and I we could see the same for the Switch. The Switch will REALLY take off once it inevitably hits $149 in a few years.

A price drop is the biggest card any manufacturer can play, and Nintendo still hasn't needed to use it. I don't think people fully understand just how unprecedented the Switch is.
I’m almost sure the age of sub-200 (be it $ or €) dedicated gaming hardware from the top players is over, outside of specific sales. 199 is possible at the very end of a platform’s lifecycle, but 149? I don’t see it. I’ve waited a long time for the PS4 to get there, and it never did. Nintendo’s found a way to sell people a Pokémon machine for double the price they used to charge when they had dedicated handhelds. I don’t see them conceding too much there.
 

Hezekiah

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The Switch has a real chance of surpassing the PS2. The PS2 and Switch launched at the same price ($299), but the PS2 price had been cut in half by this point in its lifecycle. Nintendo has somehow managed to keep sales momentum without having to reduce the price. Most of the PS2's sales happened after the price was reduced, and I we could see the same for the Switch. The Switch will REALLY take off once it inevitably hits $149 in a few years.

A price drop is the biggest card any manufacturer can play, and Nintendo still hasn't needed to use it. I don't think people fully understand just how unprecedented the Switch is.
155m? No chance. One of the main reasons being that the PS2 had an awesome library of first and third-party games.
 
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MrA

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The trolling ITT is beyond belief, lol.



I’m almost sure the age of sub-200 (be it $ or €) dedicated gaming hardware from the top players is over, outside of specific sales. 199 is possible at the very end of a platform’s lifecycle, but 149? I don’t see it. I’ve waited a long time for the PS4 to get there, and it never did. Nintendo’s found a way to sell people a Pokémon machine for double the price they used to charge when they had dedicated handhelds. I don’t see them conceding too much there.
the ps4 and xbone have both spent time at 199.99 in the US as months-long holiday price points in 2017,18, and 19 so like 40% of sales occurred during this price point for

the ps4 getting cheaper might have been possible but the whole chip/manufacturing shortage definitely messed with it last year sony was likely forced to choose between getting more ps4s out the door and ps5 production, given the ps5's demand they obviously made the right choice, but it effectively killed all ps4 momentum. IF there had been more ps4s available I bet sony would have done 199.99 again if not 149.99 last year
 

jufonuk

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Switch will end up as the #3 all time console. It's inevitable. It will never reach PS2 and NDS though, because those two were insanely cheap. Nintendo is not dropping the price anytime soon, especially not to 99 dollars or so.

Revenue wise, Switch is likely already the #1 console of all time, btw. If not, it's very close. Probably by next year.
Maybe when the new switch drops they will reduce the original switch price.
 

MrA

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This surge of sales will simmer down pretty soon; I'm calling it right now.

Don't expect the Switch to even sniff 120 million.

Once the inventories for the XSS and PS5 start to meet critical demand, it's game over for Nintendo.
well, at least you admit the switch is competing with the ps5 and xsx unlike some, but I doubt the demand for ps5 and xsx are nearly as high as you imagine they are; they are performing comparably to last gen, but in more market and with less availability while enjoy the demand boom created by lock downs and such, all covid restrictions are gone without a threat of a return and supply stabilizes I'm going to bet ps5 continues at +/- 10% of the ps4s performance and the xsx performs better than the xbone but below the 360
furthermore, the switch has software and versatility neither of those offers so I doubt there are many people walking into stores going "Hey do you have any ps5s" No, well I guess I just have a switch then, this isn't getting something for lunch,
if the ps5s software and features are what is selling someone on one on it at the current price point, then the switch's substantially different software and feature set aren't going to be a substitution, the same applies in the opposite, nobody walks into a store and goes I can't wait to play mario kart, give me a switch, oh sold out, i'll just take a ps5 then
the only cases in which one console's sales cannibalize another is 1. a person looking to buy any game console, so maybe a gift-giver 2. someone looking for either an xsx or ps5 that finds both to be acceptable in terms of software (aka, fifa, assassin's creed, cod casuals that don't care about first-party) and features at the same price
the switch will likely hit 102 million by the end of December, the system is likely to be on shelves for 3 to 5 more years, which would mean it would have to have a substantially worse than Wii collapse to fail to reach 120 million (Wii sold about 20 million units in its from 2011 to 2015)., 120 million is in the bag
 

Mozza

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When did it ever sell poorly? It’s a handheld through and through. That’s what it’s marketed as and that’s what majority of the people use it for. They aren’t competing in the console space.
Totally agree, but all the consoles seem to get compared sales wise.
 
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Mozza

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This surge of sales will simmer down pretty soon; I'm calling it right now.

Don't expect the Switch to even sniff 120 million.

Once the inventories for the XSS and PS5 start to meet critical demand, it's game over for Nintendo.
You keep on posting the same insanity in every thread, not sure if you are being serious anymore.
 
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Mozza

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I'm dead-ass serious. Look at how the Wii's sales plummeted in 2019. Expect the same thing to happen with the Switch fairly soon.
Totally different situation, the Switch is attracting a much wider audience than the Wii's casual crowd, but we will see.
 
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Kjtc1979

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Totally different situation, the Switch is attracting a much wider audience than the Wii's casual crowd, but we will see.

It isn’t a serious comparison. Wii peaked in Year three with 25.95 million units, then dropped by double digit percentages every year. Switch peaked in Year Five with 28.8 million, and is on track for 25 million this year. But if it did start to drop like the Wii, it would still get to 120 million quite easily.
 

FStubbs

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Not a surprise. Will the switch become the best selling console in history? I won't be surprised if that happens.
PS5 has a better chance of pulling that than the Switch does. Switch is still a little more than halfway to the top but more than halfway through its life cycle.
 

yurinka

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Not a surprise. Will the switch become the best selling console in history? I won't be surprised if that happens.
No, because Nintendo consoles have a shorter lifespan than PS consoles. The chart in the OP doesn't show the complete life of the consoles and is only representative of their first years, it doesn't show the whole picture.

If you look at it and don't know how these consoles ended, seems that Wii was going to be the best selling console ever. But PS1 outsould it, PS4 and specially PS2 destroyed it. Even PS3 and 360 ended relatively way closer to it than what the graph leds you to think if you don't know the whole picture.

If you include DS in the graph, it also made a huge peak, in fact bigger than the Wii and Switch are doing. But PS2 ended outselling DS even if it didn't had this monster peak, beause PS consoles keep selling for longer. Sony basically stopped PS4 production due to lack of enough chips and to make room for the PS5 gaming history record production launch, but pretty likely may resume it once they get enough chips and are able to increase production enough. They plan to support it for at least a couple of extra years, since it has like almost 90M MAU and is still generating a ton of money selling software, so pretty likely still can sell a good amount of hardware (specially if price cutted, but since they are supply demaded I think they won't price cut).
 
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Kjtc1979

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No, because Nintendo consoles have a shorter lifespan than PS consoles. The chart in the OP doesn't show the complete life of the consoles and is only representative of their first years, it doesn't show the whole picture.

If you look at it and don't know how these consoles ended, seems that Wii was going to be the best selling console ever. But PS1 outsould it, PS4 and specially PS2 destroyed it. Even PS3 and 360 ended relatively way closer to it than what the graph leds you to think if you don't know the whole picture.

If you include DS in the graph, it also made a huge peak, in fact bigger than the Wii and Switch are doing. But PS2 ended outselling DS even if it didn't had this monster peak, beause PS consoles keep selling for longer.
Switch isn’t following the normal sales curve of Nintendo devices, which usually peak in their first three years. Switch has (so far) peaked in year five, and is conservatiely projected to sell 25 million units in Year six.

Usually by this point in a Nintendo life cycle, first party development has moved on to preparing for the next handheld and next home console. Nintendo is still giving massive first party support to Switch.

This is all unprecedented in Nintendo history, and makes historical comparisons irrelevant.
 
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arvfab

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Switch isn’t following the normal sales curve of Nintendo devices, which usually peak in their first three years. Switch has (so far) peaked in year five, and is conservatiely projected to sell 25 million units in Year six.

Usually by this point in a Nintendo life cycle, first party development has moved on to preparing for the next handheld and next home console. Nintendo is still giving massive first party support to Switch.

This is all unprecedented in Nintendo history, and makes historical comparisons irrelevant.

I agree, but I still think Switch and PS4 will be neck and neck once Nintendo launches their next system.
 

Kjtc1979

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I agree, but I still think Switch and PS4 will be neck and neck once Nintendo launches their next system.
I think this would happen if PS4 was having a normal end to its lifecycle, but Sony seems to be cutting production dramatically to support PS5 production. The market is still there to sell a few million more PS4 units, but it doesn’t look like Sony is going to produce them.
 

Eddie-Griffin

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Keep in mind we dont know 360's ltd. 84 million was in 2914 and was after Sony stopped reporting numbers after 2013 (until they discontinued it 4 years later).

Microsoft for some reason hasn't out the warz to bed yet.
 

yurinka

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Switch isn’t following the normal sales curve of Nintendo devices, which usually peak in their first three years. Switch has (so far) peaked in year five, and is conservatiely projected to sell 25 million units in Year six.

Usually by this point in a Nintendo life cycle, first party development has moved on to preparing for the next handheld and next home console. Nintendo is still giving massive first party support to Switch.


This is all unprecedented in Nintendo history, and makes historical comparisons irrelevant.
Switch peaked a year later than expected surprising even to Nintendo due to the covid bump and happening at the same time their competition was (and still is) in the lowest part of their consoles sales curve while they are also suffering chips shortage, that's all. Nintendo DS peak was way bigger.

Until that bump Switch was doing pre-peak part of its sales curve very similar to Wii or specially -if excluding its extra years at the start and the alternating Christmas- the PS4. To the point that Nintendo's yearly predictions for Switch were what PS4 did that launch aligned fiscal year.

Wii had a strong peak faster than usual, and Switch got it later than usual, on the 5th year like the DS. Now Nintendo expects it to follow a post peak part of the sales curve more similar to the DS, something you'll notice if for the next year of Switch you draw 25M:



As you may notice in this graph the successful recent Nintendo devices as Wii and DS have a higher peak than the PS consoles, but after them they stop more strongly and faster than the PS consoles, the ones that even having a less taller peak they keep a decen amount of sales for many more years and keep in the market for longer. So at the end of the run the PS consoles end selling more. Notice PS2 outsold DS and PS1, PS2, PS4 outsold Wii (and PS3 ended relatively close).

Nintendo said somewhere on its 4th year that Swich was in the middle of its lifetime. Which means that maybe a couple of year later or so they will release its successor and a couple of years later more or so they will discontinue Switch. So they plan that it will like more or less like their previous devices, around 8 or 9 years, probably 10.

Maybe the problem is that you are only comparing Switch to Nintendo's home consoles, when its curve is more similar to its portables specially DS and GBA (I don't have the GB and GBC graphs, but these were other times), in fact maybe it's a Nintendo portable+Nintendo home console curve since they are adressing both markets with a single device and now they have the monopoly of the portables, meaning that the portion that PSP or Vita had now goes to Switch.

When comparing Switch and PS4, I think that -other than the unexpected and huge late peak- the pre-peak was pretty similar, but I was expecting that as always PS4 would have a way longer road than Switch looking at how long Nintendo and Sony devices live. But due to the chips shortage and the crazy PS5 launch, Sony almost stopped producing PS4s when they could still be selling them to make room to produce more PS5s with the available resources they have. They said they plan to continue supporting PS4 for at least a couple of years more, but the question now will be when are their chips shortage issues will end and if they will continue making room to PS5 production (super supply constrained) when they have way more chips available. Or if they will want to sell more profitable PS4s.

I think this may make PS4 hardware production to end faster than expected, and not due to lack of demand, but instead to sell PS5s instead because even if less profitable per hardware SKU, they generate more revenue because are sold more expensive and they have a longer life to live so more games/DLC/IAP/services per console to sell/sofware revenue to generate. And Sony gets more of its money/revenue/profits from software, so I think they will prioritize to sell PS5s over PS4.

Considering PS4 has even room to apply price cuts, it could still be sold for several years more specially in emerging markets that can't afford a high end, expensive console. But it will depend on Sony's production resources: if they have enough chips and if their factories aren't too full of PS5 and in a year or two, PSVR2.
 
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Bodomism

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Switch peaked a year later than expected surprising even to Nintendo due to the covid bump and happening at the same time their competition was (and still is) in the lowest part of their consoles sales curve while they are also suffering chips shortage, that's all. Nintendo DS peak was way bigger.

Until that bump Switch was doing pre-peak part of its sales curve very similar to Wii or specially -if excluding its extra years at the start and the alternating Christmas- the PS4. To the point that Nintendo's yearly predictions for Switch were what PS4 did that launch aligned fiscal year.

Wii had a strong peak faster than usual, and Switch got it later than usual, on the 5th year like the DS. Now Nintendo expects it to follow a post peak part of the sales curve more similar to the DS, something you'll notice if for the next year of Switch you draw 25M:



As you may notice in this graph the successful recent Nintendo devices as Wii and DS have a higher peak than the PS consoles, but after them they stop more strongly and faster than the PS consoles, the ones that even having a less taller peak they keep a decen amount of sales for many more years and keep in the market for longer. So at the end of the run the PS consoles end selling more. Notice PS2 outsold DS and PS1, PS2, PS4 outsold Wii (and PS3 ended relatively close).

Nintendo said somewhere on its 4th year that Swich was in the middle of its lifetime. Which means that maybe a couple of year later or so they will release its successor and a couple of years later more or so they will discontinue Switch. So they plan that it will like more or less like their previous devices, around 8 or 9 years, probably 10.

Maybe the problem is that you are only comparing Switch to Nintendo's home consoles, when its curve is more similar to its portables specially DS and GBA (I don't have the GB and GBC graphs, but these were other times), in fact maybe it's a Nintendo portable+Nintendo home console curve since they are adressing both markets with a single device and now they have the monopoly of the portables, meaning that the portion that PSP or Vita had now goes to Switch.

When comparing Switch and PS4, I think that -other than the unexpected and huge late peak- the pre-peak was pretty similar, but I was expecting that as always PS4 would have a way longer road than Switch looking at how long Nintendo and Sony devices live. But due to the chips shortage and the crazy PS5 launch, Sony almost stopped producing PS4s when they could still be selling them to make room to produce more PS5s with the available resources they have. They said they plan to continue supporting PS4 for at least a couple of years more, but the question now will be when are their chips shortage issues will end and if they will continue making room to PS5 production (super supply constrained) when they have way more chips available. Or if they will want to sell more profitable PS4s.

I think this may make PS4 hardware production to end faster than expected, and not due to lack of demand, but instead to sell PS5s instead because even if less profitable per hardware SKU, they generate more revenue because are sold more expensive and they have a longer life to live so more games/DLC/IAP/services per console to sell/sofware revenue to generate. And Sony gets more of its money/revenue/profits from software, so I think they will prioritize to sell PS5s over PS4.

Considering PS4 has even room to apply price cuts, it could still be sold for several years more specially in emerging markets that can't afford a high end, expensive console. But it will depend on Sony's production resources: if they have enough chips and if their factories aren't too full of PS5 and in a year or two, PSVR2.
Switch is a different beast for Nintendo. Wii was falling off the cliff with dry support from Nintendo while there are many big sellers ready to launch at the end of this year and next year.


10-15 million seller


15-20 million seller


15-20 million seller


10 million seller


20-25 million seller


3-5 million sellers



New model


Switch isn't going to collapse like Wii.
 
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89.04 million Switches (including Lite) as of June 30 (let's just say July), 2021. 4 years (and 3.5 months to be close to the actual release) console generation (till when the sales data was taken), which is a hybrid of their home/handheld markets.

116.26 million PS4's (including Slim and Pro) as of August (16?), 2021. 7 years (and 9 months, going to be 8 years old in less than 80 days), of their home console market only.

The Switch is really impressive for it did, combining both their markets for maximum penetration, using low cost BoM, earning on the hardware side as well. They know that the home console markets belong to Sony and Microsoft. They took the risk with Wii U, failed at it and laid the foundation for the Switch at the expense losing a 100 million customers from the Wii + DS generation which was their peak at 255 million. Whatever customer numbers they lost, they are gaining their revenue (potential) through software sold (and microtransactions).

This is what the power of brand name and absolute true exclusivity of high profile IP's can get you.

Don't know how the PS5 will have performed by the end of this gen, but if there's any console(s) getting close to PS2 lifetime sales, as of now in 2021, it's these two.
 
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155m? No chance. One of the main reasons being that the PS2 had an awesome library of first and third-party games.
The PS2 archived that accomplishment not during the lifespan of the 6th gen, but deep into the PS3 gen, partially because the PS3 had a very slow start and the PS2 was a very cheap alternative with a good selection of games. Depending on how long the Switch is on the market and depending on how it is supported after the Switch 2 it could absolutely reach 155m.
 
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Mozza

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PS5 has a better chance of pulling that than the Switch does. Switch is still a little more than halfway to the top but more than halfway through its life cycle.
well considering the hardcore market shared by Microsoft and Sony is around 180 million consoles per generation, the PS5 would have to dominate that space even more than it did with the PS4, not saying it's impossible to get a 150 million sales out of the 180 million, but it's very unlikely.

So in that case I would say the only current console with a chance of getting to PS2 numbers is the Switch.
 
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Mozza

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Jun 1, 2018
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Switch is a different beast for Nintendo. Wii was falling off the cliff with dry support from Nintendo while there are many bug sellers ready to launch end the end of this year and next year.


10-15 million seller


15-20 million seller


15-20 million seller


10 million seller


20-25 million seller


3-5 million sellers



New model


Switch isn't going to collapse like Wii.
When people on here say they think Switch sales will collapse, what they really mean is they hope they will. ;)
 
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