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[zeshakag]

I think Passengers is bombimg bc of Pratt
Who likes this guy seriously? He is generic af. When jurassic shit did well, i knew it was bc of dinos, nobody cares about him. Boom, gtfo pratt

Edit: to develop my thoughts a little more, it just makes me sad that Hollywood used to have interesting, great actors such as dustin hoffman, de niro, pacino, etc. As mainstream leads and now there is CHRIST PRATT

fucking hell

While I disagree with the sentiment "who likes this guy?", you did help me realize something. I like Chris Pratt, but I don't care about a movie just because Chris Pratt is in it. If I hear the movie is GOOD and it also has Chris Pratt, I am happy.

I absolutely love him in Parks and Rec and GotG, but he didn't get me to see Jurassic World and he won't get me to see this. His casting just doesn't have the sway that others have, despite his name being so big.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

With r1 reaching 550+ Whats the floor for viii? Jurassic World?

The "two sides" reception of Rogue One and the eventual 'we're over it' backlash to TFA will probably suppress episode VIII greatly, and there is the matter of what will happen to Carrie Fisher. As insensitive as it is to say it, what happens to her will be a big impact on whether people will consider episode 8 in poor taste or not. The marketing is going to have to tip-toe around that, since currently it's one bad news posting and bye-bye consumer engagement (or goodwill, or whatever you want to call it, or it is called within the industry).
They're probably just going to not talk about at all and avoid the topic during the marketing campaign.

Because just talking about it, like I'm doing now, feels insensitive by default.

edit: in my personal, based on nothing, speculation, of course.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

Maybe because SLOP was a disappointment.

Not in the box office. It made over $100 million in its first weekend.

 

[broncobuster]

I like Pratt as part of an ensemble but he doesn't have the range to be a good leading man.

 

[Iceternal]

The "two sides" reception of Rogue One and the eventual 'we're over it' backlash to TFA will probably suppress episode VIII greatly, and there is the matter of what will happen to Carrie Fisher. As insensitive as it is to say it, what happens to her will be a big impact on whether people will consider episode 8 in poor taste or not. The marketing is going to have to tip-toe around that, since currently it's one bad news posting and bye-bye consumer engagement (or goodwill, or whatever you want to call it, or it is called within the industry).
They're probably just going to not talk about at all and avoid the topic during the marketing campaign.


Because just talking about it, like I'm doing now, feels insensitive by default.

Actors dying before the film releases is often beneficial for its success : The dark knight , fast and furious 7 ...

If Carrie passes away, Disney will probably create a beautiful send off for Princess Leia in episode VIII.

 

[ElBoxyBrown]

We're still getting that Watch Dogs movie, right?

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Episode 8 is likely going to benefit from the 40th Anniversary shit that I'm sure Lucasfilm & Disney will be pushing all year long.

Obviously the new-car smell isn't a factor, so chances it replicates TFA's performance are pretty low, but I do think Episode 8 will get closer than Rogue One will.

 

[Ridley327]

Man, Sony Pictures just cannot do anything right. What was the budget on Passengers?

BOM lists it at $110 million. IIRC, the version with Keanu was going to be around half that, but as I understood it, that version wasn't nearly as elaborate with the special effects as this one turned out to have.

I really don't know what Sony was thinking about trying to turn it into a tentpole, especially with the story idea that it revolves around.

 

[Iceternal]

Episode VII is likely going to benefit from the 40th Anniversary shit that I'm sure Lucasfilm & Disney will be pushing all year long.

Obviously the new-car smell isn't a factor, so chances it replicates TFA's performance are pretty low, but I do think Episode VII will get closer than Rogue One will.

You mean VIII right ?

I know these roman numbers are confusing .

 

[Branduil]

Personally I'd bet on Episode VII making almost exactly the same amount as TFA, like within a few dollars of each other.

 

[ReBurn]

So Passengers was no good?

I thought it was just ok. I thought the first half went on too long, forcing the second half to go too fast.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

You mean VIII right ?

I know these roman numbers are confusing .

Yeah, I meant 8.

I'm just using 8 from now on.

Fuckin' Roman numerals.

 

[Branduil]

Adrian's Revenge is the best Star Wars movie.

 

[ElBoxyBrown]

I think Passengers is bombimg bc of Pratt
Who likes this guy seriously? He is generic af. When jurassic shit did well, i knew it was bc of dinos, nobody cares about him. Boom, gtfo pratt

Edit: to develop my thoughts a little more, it just makes me sad that Hollywood used to have interesting, great actors such as dustin hoffman, de niro, pacino, etc. As mainstream leads and now there is CHRIST PRATT

fucking hell

Nothing was gonna save Passengers with that sketchy ass plot.

 

[Cheebo]

If Carrie passes away, Disney will probably create a beautiful send off for Princess Leia in episode VIII.

Dude. This sort of stuff when she is trying to recover from a major heart attack? Come on.

Oh and it's LUCASFILM not Disney.

 

[mreddie]

Yeah, I meant 8.

I'm just using 8 from now on.

Fuckin' Roman numerals.

I'm so glad the Super Bowl is at the Ls (50s) now

 

[Cheebo]

'we're over it' backlash to TFA will probably suppress episode VIII greatly

There is no TFA backlash. GAFs reaction to turn on popular movies isn't a real thing. TFA was overwhelmingly and universally loved. It had some of the best word of mouth of any movie in modern history.

 

[Schlorgan]

There is no TFA backlash. GAFs reaction to turn on popular movies isn't a real thing. TFA was overwhelmingly universally loved. It had some of the best word of mouth of any movie in modern history.

Correct. Episode VIII will do extremely well.

 

[Cheebo]

The amount of people who saw TFA and will decide "you know what I really don't care to see what happens with that cliffhanger Luke ending and the Rey mystery" are going to be few and far between. They set up making people want to come back with how TFA ended pretty damn flawlessly.

Add that to the 40th anniversary marketing craziness and the fact a spin-off can go past 500 mil domestic...the movie is going to do crazy numbers. Will it do over 900 mil domestic again? Unlikely. But it should easily hit 700.

 

[Schlorgan]

The amount of people who saw TFA and will decide "you know what I really don't care to see what happens with that cliffhanger Luke ending and the Rey mystery" are going to be few and far between. They set up making people want to come back with how TFA ended pretty damn flawlessly.

Add that to the 40th anniversary marketing craziness and the fact a spin-off can sail past 500 mil domestic...the movie is going to do crazy numbers. Will it do over 900 mil domestic again? Unlikely. But it should easily hit 700.

If WOM is great, I can see it beating TFA's domestic numbers, even if it's only by a little.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

We're still getting that Watch Dogs movie, right?

Oh god. I can see the trailer now: "Sir, we're being hacked!" "Hack everything!"

You would think it's probably more suitable for a movie though, considering people are trying to mimic Mr. Robot already, and Blade Runner 2 is looking decent, so maybe trench coats are temporarily back in style.
Soooo, wen Deus Ex movie? Just include JC denton blowing up an annoying Asian kid with a rocket launcher, and I'm good. Because fuck that little shit, that's why. It's been nearly two decades since I first played the game and I would still waste a perfectly good rocket and blowing up that little bastard. I think he was an orphan anyway, he wasn't missed. *

* video game logic everyone

God, I love that game though. I did pick Gunther's password as my original username for a reason. Because I'm a prick.

"You bastard, you blew up my bionic girlfriend! I'll kill you with this helicopter!"
"Laputan Machine"
"oh no, mah kill code!" *dies violently in helicopter crash and explosion*

/offtopic
edit: goddammit.

There is no TFA backlash. GAFs reaction to turn on popular movies isn't a real thing. TFA was overwhelmingly and universally loved. It had some of the best word of mouth of any movie in modern history.

So I take it you haven't seen South Park latest season or even Mike in RLM's Rogue One review admitting he oversold TFA because he was a fan dying of thirst after the prequels? It's not "this sucks now", but there is a 're-evaluation' of it.
The thirst has been quenched by two SW movies in two years now. The momentum is definitely not going to be as strong as it was for TFA.

Also, a proud supporter of the "Suicide Squad sucks!" word of mouth group, I think that term doesn't mean that much. On smaller things, yes, but the big marketing machine films? Fuck no. See Transformers.

 

[CaviarMeths]

I think Passengers is bombimg bc of Pratt
Who likes this guy seriously? He is generic af. When jurassic shit did well, i knew it was bc of dinos, nobody cares about him. Boom, gtfo pratt

Edit: to develop my thoughts a little more, it just makes me sad that Hollywood used to have interesting, great actors such as dustin hoffman, de niro, pacino, etc. As mainstream leads and now there is CHRIST PRATT

fucking hell

The most interesting leading man in Hollywood right now was also in a movie this weekend that bombed even harder than Passengers.

 

[Dan]

Oh god. I can see the trailer now: "Sir, we're being hacked!" "Hack everything!"

You would think it's probably more suitable for a movie though, considering people are trying to mimic Mr. Robot already, and Blade Runner 2 is looking decent, so maybe trench coats are temporarily back in style.
Soooo, wen Deus Ex movie? Just include JC denton blowing an annoying Asian kid with a rocket launcher, and I'm good. Because fuck that little shit, that's why. It's been nearly two decades since I first played the game and I would still waste a perfectly good rocket and blowing up that little bastard. I think he was an orphan anyway, he wasn't missed. *

* video game logic everyone

God, I love that game though. I did pick Gunther's password as my original username for a reason. Because I'm a prick.

"You bastard, you blew my bionic girlfriend! I'll kill you with this helicopter!"
"Laputan Machine"
"oh no, mah kill code!" *dies violently in helicopter crash and explosion*

/offtopic

Ah, you mean "up" though, right?

 

[cdyhybrid]

I think the return of Luke will be big for VIII.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

Ah, you mean "up" though, right?

... edited.

Also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gDiSTtABuE

 

[FTF]

With r1 reaching 550+ Whats the floor for viii? Jurassic World?

Yeah probably. I'm thinking a $200m ow, $650m Dom total. Something like that. Maybe $215m/$700m if it's really good.

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

If WOM is great, I can see it beating TFA's domestic numbers, even if it's only by a little.

Nah, no chance.

Yeah probably. I'm thinking a $200m ow, $650m Dom total. Something like that. Maybe $215m/$700m if it's really good.

Nah, I'm thinking it will still have a colossal near-$250m weekend, but repeat business will be down a lot, so it will have weaker legs.

 

[Vault Dweller 111]

The most interesting leading man in Hollywood right now was also in a movie this weekend that bombed even harder than Passengers.

Daniel Day Lewis was in a movie?

 

[CaviarMeths]

Also, a proud supporter of the "Suicide Squad sucks!" word of mouth group, I think that term doesn't mean that much. On smaller things, yes, but the big marketing machine films? Fuck no. See Transformers.

People really need to stop using Transformers as an example for things. They're not typically performing films by any metric. Bad movies that open big almost always fall more towards the BvS or Twilight side of things and have massive drops the following weeks. Suicide Squad had unusually good legs too for a movie that bad, but it also opened in a very quiet time of the year. It had virtually no competition for two months.

Daniel Day Lewis was in a movie?

Hard to use "right now" to describe a guy who only acts once every 40 years.

 

[Gentleman Jack]

So Passengers was no good?

It's the perfect date movie!

Spoiler

If by date you mean you kidnap and condemn your woman to a slow, lonely death because you selfishly wanted to bang the hottest person in hypersleep

It's crap with good VFX work.

 

[Boke1879]

Oh god. I can see the trailer now: "Sir, we're being hacked!" "Hack everything!"

You would think it's probably more suitable for a movie though, considering people are trying to mimic Mr. Robot already, and Blade Runner 2 is looking decent, so maybe trench coats are temporarily back in style.
Soooo, wen Deus Ex movie? Just include JC denton blowing up an annoying Asian kid with a rocket launcher, and I'm good. Because fuck that little shit, that's why. It's been nearly two decades since I first played the game and I would still waste a perfectly good rocket and blowing up that little bastard. I think he was an orphan anyway, he wasn't missed. *

* video game logic everyone

God, I love that game though. I did pick Gunther's password as my original username for a reason. Because I'm a prick.

"You bastard, you blew up my bionic girlfriend! I'll kill you with this helicopter!"
"Laputan Machine"
"oh no, mah kill code!" *dies violently in helicopter crash and explosion*

/offtopic
edit: goddammit.



So I take it you haven't seen South Park latest season or even Mike in RLM's Rogue One review admitting he oversold TFA because he was a fan dying of thirst after the prequels? It's not "this sucks now", but there is a 're-evaluation' of it.
The thirst has been quenched by two SW movies in two years now. The momentum is definitely not going to be as strong as it was for TFA.

Also, a proud supporter of the "Suicide Squad sucks!" word of mouth group, I think that term doesn't mean that much. On smaller things, yes, but the big marketing machine films? Fuck no. See Transformers.

There is no re-evaluation for it. The movie had people going back 4-5 times. It made a shitload of money and the general consensus among audiences is that it's a good movie.

 

[Vault Dweller 111]

Hard to use "right now" to describe a guy who only acts once every 40 years.

That's what makes it interesting

I'd still put Leo and maybe a couple other ahead of Fassbender, but point taken.

 

[AndersK]

People really need to stop using Transformers as an example for things. They're not typically performing films by any metric. Bad movies that open big almost always fall more towards the BvS or Twilight side of things and have massive drops the following weeks. Suicide Squad had unusually good legs too for a movie that bad, but it also opened in a very quiet time of the year. It had virtually no competition for two weeks.

Its also worth considering, that while SS opened nearly 40 million larger that Guardians, its fell a bit short of it domestically, 8 mil or so. Which could be an indication that WOM has definite effect, when you consider that both movies opened in august 2 years apart, in the same genre and with a similar 'hook'. (Look at these criminals and miscreants doing heroic stuff while we serve you a bunch of decent pop songs).

 

[Bronx-Man]

Don't forget Ubisoft also has Ghost Recon and Splinter Cell movies in the works.

 

[Nategc20]

I thought for sure Sing was going to be a huge bomb.

Lol

 

[MoeDabs]

There is no re-evaluation for it. The movie had people going back 4-5 times. It made a shitload of money and the general consensus among audiences is that it's a good movie.

It seems you are all knowing and speak for everyone. Carry on.

 

[twinturbo2]

Someone is unprepared for La La Land cleaning house during awards season.

https://twitter.com/filmfatale_nyc/status/813148709378805762
https://twitter.com/filmfatale_nyc/status/813150223115624448

She thinks Moonlight should win Best Picture. Even though Oscars voters love those love letters to themselves.

 

[Messofanego]

So Passengers was no good?

If you're into rapey stories played sentimental, it's quite good!

 

[CaviarMeths]

Its also worth considering, that while SS opened nearly 40 million larger that Guardians, its fell a bit short of it domestically, 8 mil or so. Which could be an indication that WOM has definite effect, when you consider that both movies opened in august 2 years apart, in the same genre and with a similar 'hook'. (Look at these criminals and miscreants doing heroic stuff while we serve you a bunch of decent pop songs).

Your small edit of my post made me look up what opened Aug 19.

Biggest new movie opened <$15m. The top 10 movies combined made less than Suicide Squad did in its opening weekend.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Someone is unprepared for La La Land cleaning house during awards season.

https://twitter.com/filmfatale_nyc/status/813148709378805762
https://twitter.com/filmfatale_nyc/status/813150223115624448

She thinks Moonlight should win Best Picture. Even though Oscars voters love those love letters to themselves.

This is a super ignorant view, probably, but La La Land just looks to me like a movie about famous people telling each other just how hard theyve had it to get where they are

 

[Diprosalic]

Cranston/Lawrence/Pratt/Fassbender all in bad movies is sad.

 

[Busty]

As I'm feeling in a generous Holiday mood with the festive season filling me with happy, happy, joy-joy thoughts I'll say that AssCreed is probably doing better than I thought but Passengers is doing much, much worse that I thought.

If Passengers doesn't work internationally to mop up some of that red ink I feel like JLaw and Rothman (who never wanted to make the apparently) are going to bear the brunt of the blame.

I like Pratt as part of an ensemble but he doesn't have the range to be a good leading man.

I feel like Pratt was horribly miscast in this (either that or JLaw was) and that as a pair these two just don't work as romantic leads.

But in saying that it's worth remembering that he was playing to type in the Mag Seven remake and that didn't click with younger audiences either.

 

[Escape Goat]

As I'm feeling in a generous Holiday mood with the festive season filling me with happy, happy, joy-joy thoughts I'll say that AssCreed is probably doing better than I thought but Passengers is doing much, much worse that I thought.

If Passengers doesn't work internationally to mop up some of that red ink I feel like JLaw and Rothman (who never wanted to make the apparently) are going to bear the brunt of the blame.



I feel like Pratt was horribly miscast in this (either that or JLaw was) and that as a pair these two just don't work as romantic leads.

But in saying that it's worth remembering that he was playing to type in the Mag Seven remake and that didn't click with younger audiences either.

The entire marketing for this movie was based on Chris and JLaw being such great buddies. They're so wacky and best friends.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

People really need to stop using Transformers as an example for things. They're not typically performing films by any metric. Bad movies that open big almost always fall more towards the BvS or Twilight side of things and have massive drops the following weeks. Suicide Squad had unusually good legs too for a movie that bad, but it also opened in a very quiet time of the year. It had virtually no competition for two months.

Well, technically we're debating semantics here anyway. Obviously I am not a number cruncher here, and if I were I would still be unable to describe effects as part of regression models. As is anyone here (so basically Kwinston), because that would be way too nerdy for a common board. Because then we would be talking about word-of-mouth as an effect size, but suppressed or amplified by other factors, under certain assumptions and confidence intervals, etcetera, etcetera.

I am not saying it doesn't exist, it's just that I have little idea of estimating the range of movies that are or aren't influenced by word of mouth as a factor.
I also think we don't really have a good working definition of what that means, since I know some people who think Transformers is great, whereas others, like most of gaf, think its the worst. So clearly there would be a subdivision under that one too, and at that point we're going full academic. As much fun as that would be, I haven't seen much 'yay science' response to that on the internet.

But it's interesting to note the assumption that "movie quality" (indicated by RT / MC?) should always influence the behavior of audience responses. Personally I don't consider RT alone much of an indicator (see Jurassic World and many other example of movies that rank good, but are really not... Ghostbusters 2016 comes to mind) of quality, but comparing imdb ratings to the MC score does pretty well for me in terms of precision. But the imdb rating takes years to cool off and become reliable, so that only works for older movies.
But I do find that imdb ratings tend to represent quality after some years quite well, even when the RT / MC scores are completely different. However, as a predictor for the short term of the first four to eight weeks following release, there seems to be little overlap between quality and outcome to me. So if someone is doing this prediction game professionally, I wouldn't use those as indicators in a prediction model, since you're always explaining in reverse, not forward. Which is not just a quick jab at statistics, I mean that they have no predictive power towards release where it matters.
For the sake of an online discussion that's obviously 'good enough' though, but still. Not sure if there's a point here, just trying to clarify my thoughts.

Its also worth considering, that while SS opened nearly 40 million larger that Guardians, its fell a bit short of it domestically, 8 mil or so. Which could be an indication that WOM has definite effect, when you consider that both movies opened in august 2 years apart, in the same genre and with a similar 'hook'. (Look at these criminals and miscreants doing heroic stuff while we serve you a bunch of decent pop songs).

This is an interesting example of possible ranges (and effect sizes) where that might work anyway.
As someone who swings towards 'GotG=good, SS=bad' I certainly did my part. (redemption at last! )
But I never thought of them as the same hook. Somehow they strike me as waaaay too different, despite that I now see it too.

Don't forget Ubisoft also has Ghost Recon and Splinter Cell movies in the works.

Actually I did, I do, and so should you!
I think these will be quietly 'reshelved' after AC's lucklaster performance. They seem to come out and put back every few years anyway.
edit: unless they're already filming?

 

[Slayven]

Cranston/Lawrence/Pratt/Fassbender all in bad movies is sad.

Pratt got bills and wifey ain't bringing home Scary Movie money anymore

 

[CrichtonKicks]

People really need to stop using Transformers as an example for things. They're not typically performing films by any metric. Bad movies that open big almost always fall more towards the BvS or Twilight side of things and have massive drops the following weeks. Suicide Squad had unusually good legs too for a movie that bad, but it also opened in a very quiet time of the year. It had virtually no competition for two months.



Hard to use "right now" to describe a guy who only acts once every 40 years.

Transformers shouldn't be used as an example, too, because the series is on a big downward trajectory domestically. I'm not sure if Transformers 5 is even guaranteed to do $200 million domestically.

Pratt got bills and wifey ain't bringing home Scary Movie money anymore

$125k per episode isn't chicken scratch.

 

[igordennis]

Also, a proud supporter of the "Suicide Squad sucks!" word of mouth group, I think that term doesn't mean that much. On smaller things, yes, but the big marketing machine films? Fuck no. See Transformers.

Dude, grossing 750m worldwide versus grossing over 900m on just domestic are very different things. One of these needs at the very least great word of mouth, the other one doesnt.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

I think Passengers is bombimg bc of Pratt
Who likes this guy seriously? He is generic af. When jurassic shit did well, i knew it was bc of dinos, nobody cares about him. Boom, gtfo pratt

Edit: to develop my thoughts a little more, it just makes me sad that Hollywood used to have interesting, great actors such as dustin hoffman, de niro, pacino, etc. As mainstream leads and now there is CHRIST PRATT

fucking hell

Those guys are still around. There are plenty of great male lead actors, you are just mistaken in how you are viewing the past. Guys like Hoffman, DeNiro and Pacino were hardly ever the kind of guys cast in big tentpole movies. It's not like Dustin Hoffman was the lead in The Towering Inferno or JAWS 2.

 

[Bronx-Man]

This is a super ignorant view, probably, but La La Land just looks to me like a movie about famous people telling each other just how hard theyve had it to get where they are

I honestly came up with a idea for a film the other week. Basically a parody of "man, old hollywood was so great" movies like La La Land and The Artist. The whole premise would be how much it sucked trying to be minority actor breaking out into Hollywood in the good ol' days.

Even typed up 2 pages of it! Right until I realized that's the exact premise of Hollywood Shuffle.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

I think the whole idea of "leading man" and "star power" have eroded to the point of near irrelevance in modern pop cinema. We don't really have "movie stars" anymore in the Golden Age of Hollywood way. We certainly have famous actors who show up in films that do a bit of business, but by and large the idea of the star vehicle is dead and buried. Visual effects, genres, source novels, franchises, those are the movie stars of today. The pretty people playing them are just the frosting on the box office cake.