TOTK is very hard to beat, but if there is one game that can snatch that award from it, then its Starfield.
However.. There needs to be something extra for it to win.
If its like any other Bethesda title, then thats great, it means the open world is great and the sandbox gameplay is addictive which means the purchase is definitely worth it and the game has long standing legs.
But but but... This is not enough to win GOTY in 2023.
The first and biggest X factor that Starfield can have over Zelda is the Story.
If the writing is good and the story is memorable and interesting and leaves a mark on people then thats a huge plus in its favor, since Zelda doesnt do this thing good and the journalists who hand over awards will sympathize with you if the story is good, thus having higher chance of winning the award.
The second biggest X factor is the Presentation.
Zelda presentation is good but nothing impressive, so if Starfield can come up with some neat high quality presentation it can also increase its chances of topping TOTK, we can see from previous GOTY winners that presentation and good quality production values help a lot. Starfield budget is probably bigger so that should land in its favor, but it needs to go beyond the average AAA quality. It needs to be in the tier of RDR2.
The third biggest X factor is the Open World.
Zelda nailed the open world, its masterclass, but Bethesda has been a veteran in open world design, and i have no doubt their open world is going to be fun and good to explore, but this time they need to crank it up all to 11, they do have the potential because Space is amazing and has so much amount for creativity that this should be possible. So yeah, if they surpass its open world then the chances are even higher.
The fourth and the last X factor is the Polishing.
If the game is a buggy mess this time it will not be nice, this is not 2011 anymore and games with bugs and lots of jank are getting flacked, so Todd and his friends need to make sure the game is polish as much as possible and near bug-free so that it could compete with TOTK which is already bug free.
4 Factors, if they nail them all, then i would say its EASY win for Starfield, if they nail 2/4 then its possible, if they fail to nail 2 or more then there is NO CHANCE. the more they nail the higher the chance to win GOTY.