Support NeoGAF

[Komatsu]

Games just cost way too much to make, far more than films and tv shows and also take far longer. Then the potential audience is far smaller than film streaming.

As you said, they have to compete with COD Warzone, Fortnite, Genshin Impact, Apex Legends and all sorts of other free to play games.

I do not believe that is accurate, though I can understand why you'd think that way given how fast TV production costs have risen recently. Prestige TV tentpoles the likes of which drive stream services subs are vastly more expensive to produce than even the largest AAA games. A single season of The Mandalorian - not the most expensive show ever, mind you - cost only about 10 million less than the whole development budget for GTA V, one of the most expensive games ever made. Not a single piece of electronic entertainment was ever remotely as costly to churn out as the last two seasons of GoT, the total cost of the 2 seasons of Rome, etc. etc. And most streaming platforms finance dozens of expensive shows every quarter. Netflix laid out $17 billion in cash for original programming last year - more than the budget of all Rockstar games ever made put together.

As it currently stands, with EA Play included and the whole slate of Microsoft franchises (Halo, Gears of War, most of the XB360 big hitters, etc.), and major titles from publishers such as SEGA, Square Enix and Ubisoft, GP is the best deal around in gaming and I have been following all subscription models since their inception - I subbed to PSNow within 30 minutes of the service launching. It really is a game changer, which people who don't game on Xbox platforms often can't appreciate.

By my calculations, I have spent about $320 USD last year on games that I would never have played if not for Game Pass. Just Cause 3 and 4? Would not have bought 3 if I hadn't played the third and fourth entries on Game Pass. Senua? Bought it after playing on Game Pass. Attach rates for GP subbers are high and the service does provide incredible value: I replayed the entire Mass Effect trilogy with a buttery-smooth frame rate on XSX for 15 (!) bucks a month. Currently 80h into Dragon Quest XI. How much did it cost? Same 15 bucks of month. Switched back and forth between Knights of the Old Republic on Xbox BC and Doom Eternal. How much was it? 15 dollars a month.

It is very good and getting better. It's also forcing Sony to up their game and I've enjoyed how much Now has improved in the last year or so. But it sill does not hold a candle to Game Pass.

 

[Senua]

Disney+ is wack.

Mandalorian is overrated.

Only good for Simpsons and Old Disney stuff.

 

[SpongebobSquaredance]

But my feeling is that it will slow down at some point in the next few months rather quickly and the curve will flatten out and either hold or drop when promotions start going away. Assuming existing customers will no longer be able to avail of promotions.

You're in for a rude awakening.

 

[Negotiator101]

I know this will likely get brushed aside as a "Sony Pony post", but this can lead to a meaningful discussion.

#1: I don't think MS is going after the AAA industry anymore. Yes, they will produce some AAA games every now and then (especially after that Bethesda acquisition), but take that last-minute Bethesda acquisition out (calling it last-minute, because I don't believe it was in their initial plans, as Matt also said in Nov. 2019 that their focus is now no longer on studio acquisition after all the recent picks), the main focus for MS would be to fill GP with content = AA games. Most of their acquisitions (NinjaTheory, Double Fine, InXile, etc. also validate that theory).

Also, AAA game development costs are too much -- only to have those games day one on a subscription service. I don't see MS producing many $100-$200 million games going forward, like Sony is currently doing.

#2: That's the most interesting point. I can definitely relate to it. Here is how I see it:

I prefer and play high-quality AAA games more often than not. And I know that no AAA third-party games go on GP day one (except for MS's first-party exclusives that are still years away). Like I still have to buy Assassin's Creed, Cyberpunk, Red Dead Redemption 2, etc, despite having GamePass.

This means that I'd be paying $180 per year as a baseline and then $60 or $70 per AAA game when it launches. Yes, GamePass has plenty of awesome games, but does it have the game I want to play right now?

It isn't necessarily a GamePass problem, but it's a problem with most subscription services.

I don't even know where to begin with this one lol, they literally just bought a publisher who only make AAA games. And if some people are to be believed Halo Infinite coming at the end of the year is one of the most expensive games ever made.

The fact is you don't really know what you're talking about do you?

 

[cireza]

I know this will likely get brushed aside as a "Sony Pony post", but this can lead to a meaningful discussion.

#1: I don't think MS is going after the AAA industry anymore. Yes, they will produce some AAA games every now and then (especially after that Bethesda acquisition), but take that last-minute Bethesda acquisition out (calling it last-minute, because I don't believe it was in their initial plans, as Matt also said in Nov. 2019 that their focus is now no longer on studio acquisition after all the recent picks), the main focus for MS would be to fill GP with content = AA games. Most of their acquisitions (NinjaTheory, Double Fine, InXile, etc. also validate that theory).

Also, AAA game development costs are too much -- only to have those games day one on a subscription service. I don't see MS producing many $100-$200 million games going forward, like Sony is currently doing.

#2: That's the most interesting point. I can definitely relate to it. Here is how I see it:

I prefer and play high-quality AAA games more often than not. And I know that no AAA third-party games go on GP day one (except for MS's first-party exclusives that are still years away). Like I still have to buy Assassin's Creed, Cyberpunk, Red Dead Redemption 2, etc, despite having GamePass.

This means that I'd be paying $180 per year as a baseline and then $60 or $70 per AAA game when it launches. Yes, GamePass has plenty of awesome games, but does it have the game I want to play right now?

It isn't necessarily a GamePass problem, but it's a problem with most subscription services.

Keep repeating the same thing again and again, and it will eventually come true !

 

[jufonuk]

Gamepass really bothers people it seems

I like games pass believe it or not. Just for me I don’t have the free time to dedicate regularly to one game. Most games I enjoy are single player so rather than just do that all the time I will watch a film with the wife etc.
So for me having multiple games on the go wouldn’t work in the sense I won’t get enough value for money. I end up “renting” one game as it were and never complete it.

how do I know this ?
I’ve done it before with other services.
But that was also done in conjunction with my buying other physical games at retail.

if I were to rely only on games pass then eh maybe it would work. It could force me into completing games at a regular pace. But I have a lack of free time sometimes and patience with some games. If I can’t see progress I won’t bother with certain games. I hate grindy games

swings and roundabouts

My argument is that stacked up to other passive media. Renting films/tv shows makes sense as over at time period say an evening . if you stick a film/tv show on versus playing a game.
Over a set period of time you would have progressed further in the film or show viewing you could go from say watching the Simpson’s then onto the Mandalorian, top it off with a film. Then not watch tv for a few days come back and do the same thing.
over time you have progressed and completed some series or in the case of the Simpson’s have more to go.
With a game if you followed this way of consuming you would end up jumping between games, that would be ok. But then some games might have points where you get stuck etc. Also if you jump between games but not at regular points you could end up losing track or the flow/rhythm of how to play that game, some big budget AAA games have long run times.
So over a long period of time it just feels like a massive list of games to complete versus the time dedicated to do so. It can feel like a chore.
Doing it this was with TV films works as this is the way television has worked from the start.

you don’t dip in an out of the TV series then at a later date the show demands you do know something before it progresses, or you have to relearn how to watch the show before you continue.

TV/Music/Books have always worked this way.

Certain games are becoming longer and padded out while other games are made harder to keep people playing.

so to my mind renting these games over time doesn’t make sense if you could buy them at a later date at a cheaper one time price and own them.

 

[DavidGzz]

50 million Xboxes out there and 18 million GP subs. That's an amazing ratio and it will only get better once XGS starts rockin'. Meanwhile there are 2.2 million Now subs out of 110 million Playstations. No need to show how concerned you all are. You might mention PC gamers can also have subs, well the same goes for PS Now.

 

[megreotsugua]

Which does lead to the question, are Microsoft going to be happy if gamepass and Xcloud only ever get an audience of a few dozen million people, like Xbox does? Is that financially viable long term? Or was the entire project sold to the higher ups that hold the purse strings, on the idea that this would bring AAA console gaming to the masses, bypassing the need for expensive hardware entirely, and truly being 'the Netflix of gaming'?

I think it was sold to the higher ups with the promise of saturating the non-traditional gamers through streaming. That's where they will fail.

The idea that AAA studios will pump out games day 1 on gamepass for only $15 with only limited audience will start to fall apart one day when it becomes very clear that gamepass is not a type of service you can sell to the casuals.

Will MS reduce the quality of games to fit the budget or will they increase the price at the risk of losing subscribers? It has to find its balance.

 

[carlosrox]

That avatar quote don't make no sense!

 

[Sw0pDiller]

Gamepass surely is a great deal when you allready need Xbox Live gold to play you games online on xbox. And with the 1 dollar upgrade MS is sure to have a whole lot of subs for the next three years. Enough time to make GP attractive to non xbox gamers by adding better and bigger games. I feel that if the situation does not change, GP is setting out to become the GO-TO game sub service in a couple of years. That said, i think the situation WILL change. Sony, Steam, Stadia, Geforce now will see the succes of GP and will try to launch a similar sub. imagine a steam sub where yo can play all the steam games for a fee about the same as GP. Microsoft in changing the landscape and is using it's massive $$ power to hold out during the losses in the early years. it's being number one or bust... curious how much time phil has gotten to make it work.

 

[MilkyJoe]

 

[Heisenberg007]

I don't even know where to begin with this one lol, they literally just bought a publisher who only make AAA games. And if some people are to be believed Halo Infinite coming at the end of the year is one of the most expensive games ever made.

The fact is you don't really know what you're talking about do you?

It's not the most expensive game because it has unique AAA features. It's now the most expensive game because it has been in development hell for years now. The last time we saw the game still looked like shit and became a meme. Anything will accrue cost if you keep it in the oven for years.

That's not really the measure of quality.

 

[hemo memo]

Apples and Oranges

 

[GymWolf]

 

[Negotiator101]

It's not the most expensive game because it has unique AAA features. It's now the most expensive game because it has been in development hell for years now. The last time we saw the game still look liked shit and became a meme. Anything will accrue cost if you keep it in the oven for years.

That's not really the measure of quality.

You said yourself 100m to 200m in terms of a AAA game budget, seems high to me but I don't know. The point I'm making is that Microsoft are not limiting budgets, and the fact they gave 343 an extra year to improve the game shows that.

AA games will be there as well mind, I think it's time more than budget that's the problem for Microsoft. AAA games take a long time, I think we'll have a 50/50 split of the smaller titles and the larger AAA titles, which hopefully gives Microsoft a steady amount of both every year.

 

[Danteyke223]

Can't believe I'm going to react to this but... here we go.

Gaming on TV is not just loading up an app and playing. Streaming is still a huge issue when it comes to gaming, even with Xcloud, Stadia and Amazon's efforts, the tech is still not there. Also there is no Gamepass app on a TV which you can just download. Compression tech, and streaming tech needs to be a bit more advanced before that can happen. In the next couple of years, or maybe even this year you might see a Gamepass App on your tv. That's when subscription numbers should start to go up.

Also I subscribed to Disney+ for a year but that content draught and the lack of mature content is just horrible. Wish HBO MAX existed in the UK.

 

[kyussman]

I really don't think these two are comparable.I think the Xbox numbers are pretty good tbh,Disney is Disney of course it's going to be more popular,and it's TV and movies which is always going to draw bigger numbers than video games.

 

[MonarchJT]

the answer OP deserve : Imagine how must feel Sony with just and only 2.2 millions subs of psnow after so many years

real answer : brainless comparation that doesn't work. all the title mean nothing

 

[Banjo64]

Christ if 18m is ‘struggling’ I wonder what word you’d use for PS Now. But I’m sure you have some tremendous mental gymnastics to explain why PS Now is not a disaster, but actually an amazing service that’s doing very well.

Why does Game Pass take up so much space in people’s minds I wonder?

 

[Stooky]

streaming entertainment and games are both competing in the same space for your time and money. They are the same

 

[v_iHuGi]

TV - Sit, watch, sleep.
Gaming - user input.

It tells everything you need to know.

 

[bitbydeath]

do you know what TAM is? Gamepass tam is that 2 bn + people

Time and materials? Sorry, not sure where you’re going with that?

 

[Stare-Bear]

Disney has spent much more on advertising it. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an ad for game pass.

 

[Heisenberg007]

You said yourself 100m to 200m in terms of a AAA game budget, seems high to me but I don't know. The point I'm making is that Microsoft are not limiting budgets, and the fact they gave 343 an extra year to improve the game shows that.

AA games will be there as well mind, I think it's time more than budget that's the problem for Microsoft. AAA games take a long time, I think we'll have a 50/50 split of the smaller titles and the larger AAA titles, which hopefully gives Microsoft a steady amount of both every year.

Considering the sheer size of XGS now, I don't doubt it. They will be spoiled by the number of games coming out of those studios. I think it will take some time for Microsoft to fully nail down the cadence, once things get rolling -- balancing AAA and AA.

After that, we will see a steady stream of AAA and AA games. I still believe that we will likely see more AA games than AAA (overall, not just from XGS). Moreover, I also expect more live-service and GAAS games (like Sea of Thieves) than one-off single-player experiences (like Hellblade).

 

[Heisenberg007]

Time and materials? Sorry, not sure where you’re going with that?

It's short for Tammy. Tammy Swanson.

 

[Arun1910]

Gamepass is about 90% fodder.

 

[phil_t98]

I know this will likely get brushed aside as a "Sony Pony post", but this can lead to a meaningful discussion.

#1: I don't think MS is going after the AAA industry anymore. Yes, they will produce some AAA games every now and then (especially after that Bethesda acquisition), but take that last-minute Bethesda acquisition out (calling it last-minute, because I don't believe it was in their initial plans, as Matt also said in Nov. 2019 that their focus is now no longer on studio acquisition after all the recent picks), the main focus for MS would be to fill GP with content = AA games. Most of their acquisitions (NinjaTheory, Double Fine, InXile, etc. also validate that theory).

Also, AAA game development costs are too much -- only to have those games day one on a subscription service. I don't see MS producing many $100-$200 million games going forward, like Sony is currently doing.

#2: That's the most interesting point. I can definitely relate to it. Here is how I see it:

I prefer and play high-quality AAA games more often than not. And I know that no AAA third-party games go on GP day one (except for MS's first-party exclusives that are still years away). Like I still have to buy Assassin's Creed, Cyberpunk, Red Dead Redemption 2, etc, despite having GamePass.

This means that I'd be paying $180 per year as a baseline and then $60 or $70 per AAA game when it launches. Yes, GamePass has plenty of awesome games, but does it have the game I want to play right now?

It isn't necessarily a GamePass problem, but it's a problem with most subscription services.

you don’t spend 7.5 billion to not produce AAA games. Plus what they spen on other studios, then can litrally have been games released every 3 to 4 months now they have that many studios. Yes not everyone will be AAA but a lot will

 

[Bumblebeetuna]

Man what is it with GAF and their fucking hate boner for GamePass

I mean... xCloud hasn’t even officially launched and the service hasn’t been put into televisions and media players and shit. 18 million is struggling?

 

[MMaRsu]

What

 

[Kadayi]

Thinks I've learnt reading this thread

Having a third of your user base on subscription is 'struggling'

PSNow only has 2.2 million subs

Amazing

 

[martino]

After that, we will see a steady stream of AAA and AA games. I still believe that we will likely see more AA games than AAA (overall, not just from XGS). Moreover, I also expect more live-service and GAAS games (like Sea of Thieves) than one-off single-player experiences (like Hellblade).

I don't understand the argument when the actual or planned output doesn't show the tendency or any unbalance on that front.
You don't need that much games to become a stream of revenue when you have services already filling that role....(ps+ , gold, gamepass to cite a few)
This is more a third party thing imo.

 

[Shmunter]

OP's comparison is probably not as insane as it first appears (but it really does appear insane until you really think about it).

Sure, traditional AAA console gaming is super niche compared to TV and movies, but that's the entire point of gamepass and, important to bare in mind, Xcloud.

Those two combined are meant, and likely by Microsoft upper management, expected to bring gaming to the same mainstream audience that non interactive streaming subscriptions like Disney Plus do.

And in that context, I would strongly suspect those same upper management types are indeed asking why Gamepass has only sold 18m when Disney Plus has sold 80m.

Of course the real reason it hasn't, and never will get, the mega subscriber numbers that successful streaming services get, is because while the mainstream audience does play games, the games they play are mobile ones. Free time wasters with zero depth or value.

And as good of a value as Gamepass is, it's not free, so it's never going to get that big audience other streaming services need to offset the costs.

Which does lead to the question, are Microsoft going to be happy if gamepass and Xcloud only ever get an audience of a few dozen million people, like Xbox does? Is that financially viable long term? Or was the entire project sold to the higher ups that hold the purse strings, on the idea that this would bring AAA console gaming to the masses, bypassing the need for expensive hardware entirely, and truly being 'the Netflix of gaming'?

I suspect it's the latter, because the numbers involved in the cost and comparative revenue generated by gamepass compared to traditional gaming, given the potential audience of 100% of Xbox owners (being as generous as possible), has never added up.

Add in the hundreds of millions of of normies that are counted as gamers because they play candy crush, that both journalists and executives outside gaming have no idea are a completely different animal to traditional gamers, and suddenly those numbers balance. Except, well, they won't, will they?

Hence why most everyone so far in this thread has looked at this comparison and laughed, because we know it's stupid.

But everyone who thinks Gamepass is a good thing better hope Microsoft (note Microsoft, not the Xbox division) would have laughed too.

Just as you say.

The insane ‘billions’ of people projections are based on mobile streaming. People on mobile aren’t interested in AAA experiences. More so on constantLy streaming those experiences.

The thing will always be capped to lower percentage of Xbox sales. I very much doubt many pc gamers are diving into it as if it were some kind of next coming. Steam backlogs, epic free games. Just too much.

They aimed for the stars, but will splutter out over the ocean and likely dunk eventually once reality comes knocking.

 

[Orta]

What a ridiculous comparison.

Might as well start another detailing why more people drive real cars rather than play Gran Turismo.

 

[The_Mike]

Been waiting for the daily Gamepass hate thread, it came early today.

Why stop at comparing with Disney plus? Why not with Netflix as well?

Just don't mention Google Stadia that's a bad argument.

Theres more people using Netflix and Disney plus that just has a TV or apple TV compared to an Xbox. There's more Disney fans than PlayStation and xbox players together, and Disney fans seem to be just as crazy hardcore Fanboys like some games seems to be.

But let's stretch everything to make your arguments look better so you can win Internet points.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

Christ if 18m is ‘struggling’ I wonder what word you’d use for PS Now. But I’m sure you have some tremendous mental gymnastics to explain why PS Now is not a disaster, but actually an amazing service that’s doing very well.

Why does Game Pass take up so much space in people’s minds I wonder?

PSNow is not a disaster because it charges full price and is profitable. Further, Sony is making money on PSNow while charging full price for 1st party games.

PSNow is a side buisness for Sony. But Gamepass is the only thing Xbox has that they are dependent on for survival. That is the difference. And if you don't understand then nothing I say can change your mind.

 

[Banjo64]

PSNow is not a disaster because it charges full price and is profitable. Further, Sony is making money on PSNow while charging full price for 1st party games.

PSNow is a side buisness for Sony. But Gamepass is the only thing Xbox has that they are dependent on for survival. That is the difference. And if you don't understand then nothing I say can change your mind.

Like clockwork LMAO

You can regularly buy 12 months of Now for £25 in the UK. Is that full price?

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

Thinks I've learnt reading this thread

Having a third of your user base on subscription is 'struggling'

PSNow only has 2.2 million subs

Amazing

18 million is a 3rd? You meant 4th right?
PSnow is terrible as Sony doesn't put any effort.

 

[mejin]

Maybe when MS starts to offer quality games, OP.

 

[MonarchJT]

PSNow is not a disaster because it charges full price and is profitable. Further, Sony is making money on PSNow while charging full price for 1st party games.

PSNow is a side buisness for Sony. But Gamepass is the only thing Xbox has that they are dependent on for survival. That is the difference. And if you don't understand then nothing I say can change your mind.

you are drunk ..psnow is basically a disaster this considering the existence of gamepass or not

 

[Redlancet]

people want fornite,call of duty,fifa and assasins creed (also sony and nintendo exclusives) and gamepass doesnt have any of that,so its simple,most people dont give a fuck about gamepass

 

[Redlancet]

you are drunk ..psnow is basically a disaster this considering the existence of gamepass or not

you havent touched psnow son,its pretty decent and work flawessly but its not sony priority


btw FUCKING LOL at gamepass embassators getting mad at disney plus comparasions when they spend years talking about how gamepass its the netflix of gaming

 

[pasterpl]

Time and materials? Sorry, not sure where you’re going with that?

pit is a business term; Total addressable market (TAM), or total available market, is the total market demand for a product or service, calculated in annual revenue or unit sales if 100% of the available market is achieved. Source; wiki

 

[bitbydeath]

pit is a business term; Total addressable market (TAM), or total available market, is the total market demand for a product or service, calculated in annual revenue or unit sales if 100% of the available market is achieved. Source; wiki

There’s over 3 billion gamers. Phil is trying to trick shareholders into thinking 2 billion is a reachable figure.

 

[Kadayi]

18 million is a 3rd? You meant 4th right?

Take it up with the person who said 50 million Xboxes. I'm PCMR. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[DavidGzz]

18 million is a 3rd? You meant 4th right?
PSnow is terrible as Sony doesn't put any effort.

When did Xbox get to 72 million units? I thought it was 50-55.

 

[LisaMariaMartin]

I think

I'm starting to doubt that

 

[Guilty_AI]

AAA gaming is niche

AAA gaming is niche

I'm starting to doubt that

me too

 

[Rolla]

XBOX is always touting GP's comparison to streaming services, Netflix in particular. So OP's question is indeed valid.

The reason why GP is nowhere near Disney is because, in my opinion of course, they lack compelling content. And also have a huge deficit in terms of "NEW" compelling content to drive interest. Here's a stat some wont like...

It's been over 500 days since XBOX released a AAA game. All while their competition is focused on feeding their respective audiences. The last new AAA game XBOX brought to the fore was??? And when I say new I don't sequel to an existing franchise.

Outside of their core supporters this has built an unfavorable narrative for the service. "It's a Gamepass game" is a term used to denigrate, not inspire. All of you reading this will be fully aware of the memes and accusations that the service has nothing to offer but "fodder." Obviously this isn't true but yet the narrative remains persistent.

XBOX needs content that builds mindshare, builds momentum, diversifies their portfolio and captures mindshare. I keep hearing XBOX youtubers say "Wait till" without realizing that that audience that is left waiting is fertile ground for their competition.

This XBOX guy is saying GP will be viable in 2025.

 

[pasterpl]

There’s over 3 billion gamers. Phil is trying to trick shareholders into thinking 2 billion is a reachable figure.

when designing strategy for new product/service, or when you are new company (startup) you would look at TAM, SAM and TA

All 3 a valid and important when speaking with existing and potential investors.

 

[pasterpl]

XBOX is always touting GP's comparison to streaming services, Netflix in particular. So OP's question is indeed valid.

The reason why GP is nowhere near Disney is because, in my opinion of course, they lack compelling content. And also have a huge deficit in terms of "NEW" compelling content to drive interest. Here's a stat some wont like...

It's been over 500 days since XBOX released a AAA game. All while their competition is focused on feeding their respective audiences. The last new AAA game XBOX brought to the fore was??? And when I say new I don't sequel to an existing franchise.

Outside of their core supporters this has built an unfavorable narrative for the service. "It's a Gamepass game" is a term used to denigrate, not inspire. All of you reading this will be fully aware of the memes and accusations that the service has nothing to offer but "fodder." Obviously this isn't true but yet the narrative remains persistent.

XBOX needs content that builds mindshare, builds momentum, diversifies their portfolio and captures mindshare. I keep hearing XBOX youtubers say "Wait till" without realizing that that audience that is left waiting is fertile ground for their competition.

This XBOX guy is saying GP will be viable in 2025.

GP should be compared to Netflix and it’s early years not disney+