RCU005
Member
While the deal for Activition is still not closed yet, it’s extremely likely it will. Microsoft now owns more than half of the gaming industry (something many people predicted when they announced they would enter the gaming industry with the Xbox).
Microsoft doesn’t know how to compete, they only know hot to buy and remove the competition. However, that’s what’s going to affect them in the not-so-long-term.
They claim that they want all of the industry to have content for GamePass (although it’s was clear that they only wanted to fuck up the competition), but GamePass is a service that is going to be very hard to maintain profitable.
Just look at streaming services. Disney+ is bleeding money, Netflix keeps raising prices, HBO Max had to combine with Doscovery, other smaller services are irrelevant.
Video games streaming is on another level of complexity. They are not just a file that you upload to the servers. Games need to be constantly updated, add content, etc and everything needs resources. A movie just needs a license.
Then, the most important part: Comsumers!
Why do people like Game Pass? They say the games are practically free. Well, many users got their subscription for $1 so I guess that part is true. The normal price is $150 a year, I believe, which is just the cost of 2 games!
However, that won’t last long, specially now that Microsoft is in a “monopoly” position for now. They will start raising prices, let’s just see how fast and how soon.
The other important thing: Content!
Well, Microsoft now owns a shitload of studios, but is that enough? They have proven time and time again that they have a huge management problem when ot comes to their studios since before Xbox One. Will they be able to deliver great content from all (most) of them?
Another issue is their Market share. They removed Starfield from PlayStation, which is to be expected. Will the game sell enough to be successful for GamePass? How much will it sell physically/digitally vs GamePass?
Games like Call of Duty will probably remain on PlayStation, and maybe others too, but that only means that they sell more on the competition. In order for Microsoft to be successful with GamePass, they need to increase their Market Share ASAP and by a lot!
This is where I think they’ll fail. They don’t have the patience, otherwise, they would’ve used the 70 billion to build studios, not buying them. They are like how DC and WB wanted to have Marvel’s success from the first movie, and of course they crashed and burned.
I believe they will add GamePass everywhere, Smart TVs, Mobile, etc. that could help them, but they still need reasons for people to use it. There’s a reason why Mario Mart sells 50 million, or Spider Man game sold more then 20 million. People want to play those games, and they buy the platform they are in to play them.
Do you believe that Microsoft could sell even half of what Call of Duty is selling if they make it exclusive right now and put it just on GamePass and Xbox?
If Microsoft don’t increase consumers, will publishers and developers want their game on GamePass? Will Microsoft be able to pay them huge amounts of money every time just for the sake of it? They have a lot of money, but it’s still a business.
In that regard, the moment they add GamePass to a PlayStation or Nintendo console, they effectively became third party. However, I still believe they could become a full third party by next gen.
If Microsoft had sold 100 million + consoles like the PS4 or Switch is doing, then this would be another story entirely.
TL : DR: Microsoft will become third party because they won’t be able to reach enough consumers to make GamePass as successful as they want, therefore having to either put it on PlayStation and Nintendo consoles, or become full third party. Xbox will not explode next gen to become as big as PlayStation or Nintendo and will begin to have issues with developers and publishers to put content on GamePass.
Microsoft doesn’t know how to compete, they only know hot to buy and remove the competition. However, that’s what’s going to affect them in the not-so-long-term.
They claim that they want all of the industry to have content for GamePass (although it’s was clear that they only wanted to fuck up the competition), but GamePass is a service that is going to be very hard to maintain profitable.
Just look at streaming services. Disney+ is bleeding money, Netflix keeps raising prices, HBO Max had to combine with Doscovery, other smaller services are irrelevant.
Video games streaming is on another level of complexity. They are not just a file that you upload to the servers. Games need to be constantly updated, add content, etc and everything needs resources. A movie just needs a license.
Then, the most important part: Comsumers!
Why do people like Game Pass? They say the games are practically free. Well, many users got their subscription for $1 so I guess that part is true. The normal price is $150 a year, I believe, which is just the cost of 2 games!
However, that won’t last long, specially now that Microsoft is in a “monopoly” position for now. They will start raising prices, let’s just see how fast and how soon.
The other important thing: Content!
Well, Microsoft now owns a shitload of studios, but is that enough? They have proven time and time again that they have a huge management problem when ot comes to their studios since before Xbox One. Will they be able to deliver great content from all (most) of them?
Another issue is their Market share. They removed Starfield from PlayStation, which is to be expected. Will the game sell enough to be successful for GamePass? How much will it sell physically/digitally vs GamePass?
Games like Call of Duty will probably remain on PlayStation, and maybe others too, but that only means that they sell more on the competition. In order for Microsoft to be successful with GamePass, they need to increase their Market Share ASAP and by a lot!
This is where I think they’ll fail. They don’t have the patience, otherwise, they would’ve used the 70 billion to build studios, not buying them. They are like how DC and WB wanted to have Marvel’s success from the first movie, and of course they crashed and burned.
I believe they will add GamePass everywhere, Smart TVs, Mobile, etc. that could help them, but they still need reasons for people to use it. There’s a reason why Mario Mart sells 50 million, or Spider Man game sold more then 20 million. People want to play those games, and they buy the platform they are in to play them.
Do you believe that Microsoft could sell even half of what Call of Duty is selling if they make it exclusive right now and put it just on GamePass and Xbox?
If Microsoft don’t increase consumers, will publishers and developers want their game on GamePass? Will Microsoft be able to pay them huge amounts of money every time just for the sake of it? They have a lot of money, but it’s still a business.
In that regard, the moment they add GamePass to a PlayStation or Nintendo console, they effectively became third party. However, I still believe they could become a full third party by next gen.
If Microsoft had sold 100 million + consoles like the PS4 or Switch is doing, then this would be another story entirely.
TL : DR: Microsoft will become third party because they won’t be able to reach enough consumers to make GamePass as successful as they want, therefore having to either put it on PlayStation and Nintendo consoles, or become full third party. Xbox will not explode next gen to become as big as PlayStation or Nintendo and will begin to have issues with developers and publishers to put content on GamePass.
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. I'd be interested in that. I have no use for a second current gen console but I'd be open for more steamdeck style devices.
