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[Mibu no ookami]

Believe it or not, I'd still take Epic over all 3 combined.

Sony's already got ties with Kadokawa and From, so more exclusive games seem to be incoming.

Anyways, like I mentioned earlier, I think it's far more realistic that if Sony decides to go for another large purchase it'll probably be Square Enix

I can't stress enough how poor of a purchase Square Enix would be.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

After Nine Quarters

PS4: 37.8 million
PS5: 32.1 million
PS1: 29.5 million estimate (32.82 million after 10 Quarters)
PS2: 28.68 million
PSP: 22.3 million
PS3: 21.1 million
PSV: 7.5 million estimate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2_sales
https://web.archive.org/web/2013092...i.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_sale_e.html

 

[Baki]

It can make sense if you can improve the margin on the GAAS revenue and if you are concerned that other platforms could have a GAAS that takes people away.

The fixed margin from 3rd party gaas games on Sony is 30% minus whatever cost to do the transaction.
If Sony can beat that 30% margin, then they are making more money.

I think a 30% margin is hard to beat.

Add on content is the biggest revenue segment for PlayStation. It makes sense that Sony would want to take a crack at their own GAAS games.

So many reasons not to buy Epic Games.

First, the cost at this point is untenable. Second, as you mentioned is Tencent. You'd have to somehow buy them out, which again is $$$$.

Epic doesn't really have much gaming IP and fortnite isn't worth it. You'd have to immediately start using Unreal Engine across all internal teams for it to be even somewhat worth it and that itself comes at a cost of the benefit of using a custom engine.

All the things Epic gives you, you could get elsewhere for cheaper. This doesn't even touch the regulatory risk of it being blocked, which it almost certainly would be.

Square Enix is such a poor buy that it makes no sense. They aren't the Square or Enix of old and the current relationship is probably the most reasonable one.

You take that 10 billion left over, you borrow a bit more, and then you could for a stock swap for the rest.

Square Enix does 2.5B in revenue and is only valued at 5B. Pretty good value for money and provides Sony with trans media IPs that there other divisions can exploit (movies, anime, mobile gaming). To put that into context, Sony can immediately grow their full year PlayStation earnings by 10% for the cost of 2.4x revenue. Not bad at all.

Also keep in mind that Unreal is becoming a commonly used tool in the film and TV production world, which is massively important to Sony. Not only would they be able to use Unreal for their own game , TV and film production, but they'd be earning revenue from all the others in those 3 industries who also use it.

Unreal is the real prize with the Epic purchase, extras like Fortnite would just be nice bonuses.

Unreal is not the real prize. In 2019, unreal only brought in $90m revenue compared to Fortnite $5B. Even more concerning, that was a decline from $120m 2018 revenue. Unreal has been around for a while, it’s a real concern to see a SAAS product decline year on year. For a $30B purchase, Unreal Engine needs to bring in $3-4B and demonstrate a 30% growth rate.

Not sure if that's worth 30+ billion dollars.

It isn’t

Believe it or not, I'd still take Epic over all 3 combined.

Sony's already got ties with Kadokawa and From, so more exclusive games seem to be incoming.

Anyways, like I mentioned earlier, I think it's far more realistic that if Sony decides to go for another large purchase it'll probably be Square Enix

All 3 companies would be much better value than 1 Epic.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

You're still living in 2012 with this mentality.

PlayStation (rightfully) is focused on 2025+, and videogames as a medium is a multiplayer centric medium.

The revenue delta between SP and MP already strongly favors MP and there isn't an analyst alive who doesn't see that delta widening over the next 10 years. Relying on SP is essentially chaining your company to the floor as the forest grows high above you.

You still think like a Third Party studio.

What you said would be true, if you were talking about SEGA. But as a platform holder Sony gets paid 30% for every third party micro-transaction... while doing NOTHING. So it doesn't matter if MP games become 99% of the game market, Sony still gets paid for it. They are the store front, they get paid regardless. However the SP market still exists and is neglected so Sony is targeting them to balance the library.

Having your own closed garden and charging 30% on all sales is the entire point of selling a console.

 

[Wulfer]

I don't engage in console warring, buddy, but I am old enough to appreciate MS shenanigans. I honestly could not care less about MS buying publishers, on the condition that they don't get to take franchises away from the rest of the market willy-nilly.

Remember that pain I was talking about earlier? This is what I meant when you box with the big boys. Now if Sony does honor the judge with some or any of these requests we'll have a interesting fight on our hands. Round 2 Fight!

Actual PDF DOCKET NO. 9412

Microsoft's new requests for Sony in court!

We have more info about what MS is requesting:

- 45 distinct document requests, 13 of which have multiple subparts, for a total of more than 120 separate document requests.

- These requests demand all documents related to nearly all aspects of SIE's business, as well as extensive sets of sales, financial, and personal user data (e.g., user date of birth, user country, user gender, covering what will likely be millions of users).

- Ten of these requests seek materials going back more than 11 years to January 2012.

- Sony estimates that providing the response to MS will cost approximately $2 million or more in fees and expenses and demand weeks of intense work and substantial efforts and involvement of SIE personnel.

- MS is requesting all documents related to performance reviews and evaluations of all Sony gaming leadership or management, all documents relating to SIE's gaming business sent to, received from, or exchanged with other Sony entities, and executed copies of every content licensing agreement SIE has entered into with any third-party publisher over the past 11 years, among others.

- Sony is not happy with the unrealistically short deadlines and irrelevant requests from MS.

- In any case, Sony anticipates that this will be its last request for an extension to the motion to quash deadline and that they will either reach final agreement or narrow any impasse by February 10, 2023. Microsoft disagrees with the relief requested in this motion.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

You still think like a Third Party studio.

What you said would be true, if you were talking about SEGA. But as a platform holder Sony gets paid 30% for every third party micro-transaction... while doing NOTHING. So it doesn't matter if MP games become 99% of the game market, Sony still gets paid for it.

They'll get paid for it as long as they have the leverage...and their leverage weakens by the year as mobile, PC, and streaming eat up more and more marketshare.

Sony doesn't want to be big fish in a small pond. They want to be the biggest fish in the ocean. MP gets them there. SP doesn't.

They are the store front, they get paid regardless.

Fortnite is the storefront. Genshin Impact is the storefront. League of Legends is the storefront...

You can't operate like it's 2000 anymore. There used to be 3 big stores on the block. Now there are 3 big stores and 10 (growing) mid sized stores...with tons more showing up readying their grand opening.

PlayStation has correctly read the market and understands that games are the platform.

However the SP market still exists and is neglected so Sony is targeting them to balance the library.

Having your own closed garden and charging 30% on all sales is the entire point of selling a console.

The SP market is capped. It's not growing. PlayStation has recognizing this and is allocating the appropriate resources into smarter projects (big AAA with brand IP attached).

A closed garden is only valuable as long as there aren't competing gardens nearby.

 

[Thirty7ven]

Remember that pain I was talking about earlier? This is what I meant when you box with the big boys. Now if Sony does honor the judge with some or any of these requests we'll have a interesting fight on our hands. Round 2 Fight!

I’m sure the judge will agree to it all. Did you think MS was judge jury and executioner?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

You still think like a Third Party studio.

What you said would be true, if you were talking about SEGA. But as a platform holder Sony gets paid 30% for every third party micro-transaction... while doing NOTHING. So it doesn't matter if MP games become 99% of the game market, Sony still gets paid for it. They are the store front, they get paid regardless. However the SP market still exists and is neglected so Sony is targeting them to balance the library.

Having your own closed garden and charging 30% on all sales is the entire point of selling a console.

It's fair to argue that Sony gets 0 dollars for MP games sold on PC or Xbox or their relative MTX there.

I don't think it's just multiplayer that Sony needs to concern itself with, but multiplatform, particularly PC, Android, and iOS.

 

[Wulfer]

I’m sure the judge will agree to it all. Did you think MS was judge jury and executioner?

Did you some how miss "Now IF Sony does honor"?

Sony went on and on how their business can't survive without COD. Now MS is asking them to proof it. Don't box if your not ready! (Not you Thirty7ven)

 

[Hobbygaming]

You guys are missing the point I think. Sure the S was for people with less money (plus Game Pass) but it's also for people that don't care about the best graphics and are not as Hardcore. Do you think Switch owners are all poor? I know several people with cheapo phones that do everything they need and they make six figures. People have different priorities. It also makes for a great secondary console introducing more people to the brand.

There's a different conversation that can be made for why the S is bad and that is, the S being a lot more work for developers and it limits your stronger console

Is it really worth it in the end

 

[Thirty7ven]

Did you some how miss "Now IF Sony does honor"?

Sony went on and on how their business can't survive without COD. Now MS is asking them to proof it. Don't box if your not ready! (Not you Thirty7ven)

But why are you assuming whatever it is that you are assuming. For starters it will be completely illegal for them provide info on users outside the USA. So that leaves them with COD country user data, for example. Guess what the data will show?

Because this is basically data for a judge to see, and determine what is relevant to the case of MS buys AB.

 

[Fafalada]

Unreal is the real prize with the Epic purchase, extras like Fortnite would just be nice bonuses.

Fortnite is the only reason Epic's valuation would be in 10s of Bilions.
Before Fortnite - they were in low-single digits, just like other engine competitors, and it still wasn't considered a good buy.

 

[El Pistolero]

Did you some how miss "Now IF Sony does honor"?

Sony went on and on how their business can't survive without COD. Now MS is asking them to proof it. Don't box if your not ready! (Not you Thirty7ven)

How about you stop foaming at the mouth, and watch things unfold. MS requests are, frankly, ridiculous. They want to have access to Sony's innards...Not gonna happen, as most of what is asked is not remotely germaine to the case.

 

[Poltz]

There is no way Sony buys Epic Games.

 

[Poltz]

Oh and the 19m sales forecast revision has now been confirmed R reksveks

 

[reksveks]

Oh and the 19m sales forecast revision has now been confirmed R reksveks

Yeah, heard it at the end of the earnings call.

Going to be crazy Q4, they are basically forecasting a 59% growth across all GNS(PlayStation) revenue

 

[Poltz]

Yeah, heard it at the end of the earnings call.

Going to be crazy Q4, they are basically forecasting a 59% growth across all GNS(PlayStation) revenue

It’s hard when you hear something on a call and you can’t rewind it so you have to wait to see if it was correct. Q4 would be a console record if they sell 6.2m I’m sure.

 

[Ronin_7]

New Sony co CEO is obsessed with growth

I smell a more aggressive SONY moving forward.

 

[Poltz]

New Sony co CEO is obsessed with growth

I smell a more aggressive SONY moving forward.

They are selling officially in China now but due to restrictions on the consoles there I think people prefer to import but still.

 

[Ronin_7]

They are selling officially in China now but due to restrictions on the consoles there I think people prefer to import but still.

What are those restrictions? Any idea what games are available on Chinese Store?

 

[John Wick]

Thats basically what i said last year. If sony wants to stay in this business, they simply cannot afford to lose cod. And GTA will be their break out of jail card.

The only problem is that Take2 was worth $18 billion but then they bought zynga for $12 billion. so if sony wants to buy take2, they will need to pay around $30 billion and face stiff competition from microsoft who will undoubtedly bid to raise the price.

But it's something Sony must do. CoD is the most played game on consoles with 55% of all console players playing it. gta is second at 45%.

There is no way MS will be allowed to bid for Take Two after buying ABK. Just won't happen.

 

[MasterCornholio]

I’m sure the judge will agree to it all. Did you think MS was judge jury and executioner?

Sorry couldn't resist.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

If PS5 can reach 19 million this fiscal year then it will beat PS2 and PS4's second full year and just be behind PS1's.

* Q4 remaining, forecast to ship 19 million

 

[Zekra Dezivad]

I can't stress enough how poor of a purchase Square Enix would be.

Well, they fit each other perfectly. Square seems a natural fit with their historical relationship in game development since 90s, however they have such very close ties I do not think they "need" an acquisition. They both already can manage to have what they want.
I think that the only reason behind a merger between Sony and Square would be the manga and anime publishing arm. They have a lot of IPs that would be very important for Sony's efforts in animation industry where they invested a lot for Crunchyroll. Gaming? Nah, I don't think they want to expand their eastern development area.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

Yeah, heard it at the end of the earnings call.

Going to be crazy Q4, they are basically forecasting a 59% growth across all GNS(PlayStation) revenue

Frankly I don't see what's so shocking. Sony is assuming most customer had been delaying their purchases. So unless everyone had already become Xbox customers without us looking, they are expecting the delayed purchases to happen all at once in the same coming year. Not so much because the console is extra desirable but because of pent up demand.

 

[Unknown?]

Did you some how miss "Now IF Sony does honor"?

Sony went on and on how their business can't survive without COD. Now MS is asking them to proof it. Don't box if your not ready! (Not you Thirty7ven)

The fact that MS is asking for proof just shows how disingenuous they are about keeping it on PlayStation. As soon as contracts are up, they'll pull it immediately and claim they are bring it to more gamers. Rofl

 

[El Pistolero]

Well, they fit each other perfectly. Square seems a natural fit with their historical relationship in game development since 90s, however they have such very close ties I do not think they "need" an acquisition. They both already can manage to have what they want.
I think that the only reason behind a merger between Sony and Square would be the manga and anime publishing arm. They have a lot of IPs that would be very important for Sony's efforts in animation industry where they invested a lot for Crunchyroll. Gaming? Nah, I don't think they want to expand their eastern development area.

Square would be a waste of money. What Sony could, and should do, is to invest in two specific teams, seeing as Square made their intentions clear regarding future financing: The main FF team, and the MMO-RPG team. That's it. The rest is an unecessary burden. Why pay $10 billions, when you could secure the most important assets to you for a tenth of that? The rest of whatever capital they have left until March of next year, use wisely to acquire close partners, fund XDEV new alliances, grow your teams, and inject into publishers such as Capcom to prevent MS from buying them at some point in the future. Smart, strategic moves, as you are neither as rich, nor as desperate as your competitor. But knowing how slow Sony is, I expect them not to be as proactive as they should be, given the changing landscape.

 

[mckmas8808]

If PS5 can reach 19 million this fiscal year then it will beat PS2 and PS4's second full year and just be behind PS1's.

* Q4 remaining, forecast to ship 19 million

It still shocks me that Sony may have their best 2nd year of all time with the PS5.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

The 4th Quarter earnings report is on Friday April 28th. All the available sales data from North America, Europe and Japan points to hardware numbers this quarter being abnormally high which was expected due to supply being plentiful for the first time. Based on this data I am predicting 5.8 million PS5's shipped in Q4.

 

[TheGodfather07]

The 4th Quarter earnings report is on Friday April 28th. All the available sales data from North America, Europe and Japan points to hardware numbers this quarter being abnormally high which was expected due to supply being plentiful for the first time. Based on this data I am predicting 5.8 million PS5's shipped in Q4.

Sony increased their forecast and are gonna need 6.2m to hit it.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

Sony increased their forecast and are gonna need 6.2m to hit it.

I think they will just miss it. Sony sets forecasts that are very difficult to meet for example last fiscal year their forecast was 14.9 million and they shipped 11.5 million. This time they will actually beat their original forecast of 18 million but 19 million will be tough. I wonder what forecast they will set in the upcoming FY? This should be the peak year for PS5 and i think 23 to 24 million could be their forecast.

 

[Poltz]

I think they will just miss it. Sony set forecast that are very difficult to meet for example last fiscal year their forecast was 14.9 million and they shipped 11.5 million. This time they will actually beat their original forecast of 18 million but 19 million will be tough. I wonder what forecast they will set in the upcoming FY? This should be the peak year for PS5 and i think 23 to 24 million could be their forecast.

19m did seem very ambitious at the time.

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

I think they will just miss it. Sony sets forecasts that are very difficult to meet for example last fiscal year their forecast was 14.9 million and they shipped 11.5 million. This time they will actually beat their original forecast of 18 million but 19 million will be tough. I wonder what forecast they will set in the upcoming FY? This should be the peak year for PS5 and i think 23 to 24 million could be their forecast.

Considering most sony studios have yet to release anything, I can’t imagine this next year to be its peak tbh. This gen isn’t even 3 years old and it’s going to go fir quite a while and for longer than the ps4

 

[TheGodfather07]

I think they will just miss it. Sony sets forecasts that are very difficult to meet for example last fiscal year their forecast was 14.9 million and they shipped 11.5 million. This time they will actually beat their original forecast of 18 million but 19 million will be tough. I wonder what forecast they will set in the upcoming FY? This should be the peak year for PS5 and i think 23 to 24 million could be their forecast.

Sony have never had problems meeting projections apart from the major stock issues from the PS5. They raised the forecast knowing they will have the stock to meet it this time around. I think they may even exceed 6.2m

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

Sony have never had problems meeting projections apart from the major stock issues from the PS5. They raised the forecast knowing they will have the stock to meet it this time around. I think they may even exceed 6.2m

Besides...the 6.2M is production numbers right? It's not sold-through.

 

[reksveks]

Besides...the 6.2M is production numbers right? It's not sold-through.

Basically, shipments but there isn't likely to be a big difference

 

[onQ123]

I expect to wake up to about 10 pages in the morning when the report hit

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

calling it now:

colt,tim,jezz:

Play Station's sucess is actually bad for Play Station.

 

[onQ123]

Releasing in about a hour & a half

https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/

 

[mckmas8808]

Releasing in about a hour & a half

https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/

So one more hour to go?.....

 

[Snake29]

So one more hour to go?.....

 

[Heisenberg007]

PlayStation is gonna set new records today!

 

[lh032]

hopefully some good news on the result.

 

[Heisenberg007]

So one more hour to go?.....

More like ~45 minutes to go.

 

[Zok310]

Here we go…. Shits about to be crazy.

 

[mckmas8808]

More like ~45 minutes to go.

And now 20 minutes to go. So lets backtrack a bit to see where we are in this new timeline.

1. MS' latest big 1st party game is found out to not have a 60 fps mode, even though it was always said to have it. And now will come with a ghetto sticker that says 60 fps will be coming soon because the box has a lie of 60 fps on it.
2. MS releases their latest earnings report showing that console hardware revenue is down -30% in the latest quarter.
3. MS loses the right to own ABK due to the CMA shutting down the deal.
4. Sony releases their latest earnings report showing record hardware sales.
5. Sony announces its showcase will be happening in May of 2023?.....
6. A renewed Sony now can finally show us what they have been working on for the past 18 months of being quite due to not being afraid that if they show too much the CMA would have allowed the MS\ABK purchase to happen????
7. ??????
8. Domination!

 

[Heisenberg007]

And now 20 minutes to go. So lets backtrack a bit to see where we are in this new timeline.

1. MS' latest big 1st party game is found out to not have a 60 fps mode, even though it was always said to have it. And now will come with a ghetto sticker that says 60 fps will be coming soon because the box has a lie of 60 fps on it.
2. MS releases their latest earnings report showing that console hardware revenue is down -30% in the latest quarter.
3. MS loses the right to own ABK due to the CMA shutting down the deal.
4. Sony releases their latest earnings report showing record hardware sales.
5. Sony announces its showcase will be happening in May of 2023?.....
6. A renewed Sony now can finally show us what they have been working on for the past 18 months of being quite due to not being afraid that if they show too much the CMA would have allowed the MS\ABK purchase to happen????
7. ??????
8. Domination!

Or in summary.

 

[Varteras]

We making a new thread for this or just hanging here?

 

[reksveks]

We making a new thread for this or just hanging here?

Got it in draft but waiting for the slides/data