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Series x could cost $400

Undercutting Sony on PS5 by $100 and essentially going for their throat does not line up with MS’s current Xbox strategy of “play Xbox games wherever you like on multiple platforms”.

Would be a hell of a move if they were to do it though.
 

sircaw

Banned
But how much of a loss can they afford to eat per box? At 399 bucks are we expecting them to eat 200+ bucks per console sold?

I am not good with maths but a quick estimate.
Say at a minimum the xbox costs 600 to make they sell it at 400.
that's a 200 dollar lose per each unit.

Lets say they sell thirty million consoles in the first 5 years.
200 lose x 30 000 000
6.000.000.000

That a sink of 6 billion dollars on a £200 lose.
If my math is wrong please feel to correct me.

2 things, yes price's will come down over time when their are better yields and improved engineering procedures.

But that's is also assuming that 600 dollars is the cost creating the box to begin with, it could be more, alot more, 700, 750.

Thats a crazy cost sink if i think about it like that, i am sure there are many more things to consider, this is very basic.

I just don't want xbox fans to get to excited at a 400 dollar price, or they might end up being really disappointed.
 
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darkinstinct

...lacks reading comprehension.
That whole "play wherever you want" is a con. Why would Spencer talk about winning next gen? What they actually mean is play the games you bought on Xbox everywhere, because xCloud. They have already said there won't be future Switch games. It's all Xbox/ Windows 10.
Undercutting Sony on PS5 by $100 and essentially going for their throat does not line up with MS’s current Xbox strategy of “play Xbox games wherever you like on multiple platforms”.

Would be a hell of a move if they were to do it though.
 
Its never worth it to buy a new console day 1. You get neutered sports games from previous years, lower budget intro games that any developer in their right mind won't sink too much into development for such a small user base and the worst build of parts in that generation.

Black Friday 2021 maybe if they prove its worth the purchase.
That’s simply not true, depends on how much money you have. Paying $100 extra to play a new console six months before it goes to a more discounted price is completely worth it if you are a working professional. And there is always at least 2 or 3 good games at launch imo.
 
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DaGwaphics

Member
But that's is also assuming that 600 dollars is the cost creating the box to begin with, it could be more, alot more, 700, 750.

The break-even is probably about $600 max. The components just don't add up to more than that, a lot of the moves they've made are focused on cost cutting (even the tower design is cheaper to produce and cool than the more traditional dev-kit variant). I expect $499 with anywhere from $50 - $100 loss on early units. Production costs will drop considerably faster than the retail price (the PS4 is still $300), so, things even out after the first 12-18 months.
 

sircaw

Banned
The break-even is probably about $600 max. The components just don't add up to more than that, a lot of the moves they've made are focused on cost cutting (even the tower design is cheaper to produce and cool than the more traditional dev-kit variant). I expect $499 with anywhere from $50 - $100 loss on early units. Production costs will drop considerably faster than the retail price (the PS4 is still $300), so, things even out after the first 12-18 months.

I agree with your your point, if that is construction, i wonder how research and development is a factor in end cost. I would imagine that's not cheap too and Microsoft would like to recoup some of its cost.
 

Danjin44

The nicest person on this forum
well if US is gonna cost $400 then it gonna be $500 in Canada, that still good price for me.
 
Comes from per-unit marketing, distribution costs added on top. Admittedly though I was quoting a reference from a video from a few days ago which is the last time the BOM even popped up on my radar.

Regardless, it does show they've had at least some time in their console history where they didn't mind losing $100 + on each system sold if it meant getting early marketshare. XBO was sold with a different pricing strategy in mind mainly because it was designed with a different vision altogether and not something specifically tuned to the core gaming market. The business mentality they had with XBO can't be absolutely used as a barometer for how they will approach next-gen.
For one, getting market-share using predatory pricing is a crime. If the pricing is within sustainable parameters, then Sony will match it. There is nothing wrong in loss-leading pricing, but pricing cannot be used to kill competition(taking market share / driving competitor into losses).

“From what I’ve seen, Sony’s going to have to charge $500 for their PS5, and Microsoft has a big balance sheet,” Pachter said, “if they want to cut the price by $100, just price below and subsidize the first ten million, they will.”

Now if MS does this, Sony will file an Anti-Trust suit. Headlines will read "a 1.4 trillion Microsoft trying to kill a small 80 billion enterprise".
 

sircaw

Banned
For one, getting market-share using predatory pricing is a crime. If the pricing is within sustainable parameters, then Sony will match it. There is nothing wrong in loss-leading pricing, but pricing cannot be used to kill competition(taking market share / driving competitor into losses).

“From what I’ve seen, Sony’s going to have to charge $500 for their PS5, and Microsoft has a big balance sheet,” Pachter said, “if they want to cut the price by $100, just price below and subsidize the first ten million, they will.”

Now if MS does this, Sony will file an Anti-Trust suit. Headlines will read "a 1.4 trillion Microsoft trying to kill a small 80 billion enterprise".

I wish i knew more about law to comment. but very interesting take on it.
 
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DaGwaphics

Member
For one, getting market-share using predatory pricing is a crime. If the pricing is within sustainable parameters, then Sony will match it. There is nothing wrong in loss-leading pricing, but pricing cannot be used to kill competition(taking market share / driving competitor into losses).

Predatory pricing will never stick in a US court for any product in a razor and blades situation. It would have to be proven that the pricing practice was unsustainable and implemented with the sole intention of removing competition. As soon as you make the case that you are looking to build a base with "razors" and recoup on "blades", that's a case closed situation. A very credible argument too. MS could give XSX away for free and not have to worry about predatory pricing.

Someone selling alarm clocks is a bit different, if you're selling alarm clocks at a loss, why are you doing that? What argument can you make for that.
 
MS actually compared the system with a 2080 not a 2080ti. I'm not sure why people are defensive or even surprised by that result. Look at the 5700XT vs. the 2080, now factor in the performance gains from the increased compute and any gains from RDNA1 > RDNA2.
Because they compared the two in gameplay, then dropped the resolution for the series X, ran a benchmark, and compared the two without stating they dropped the resolution, in comparison to the pc version. That's a bit disingenuous if you ask me. It's like comparing native 4k to checkerboard 4k.
 

DaGwaphics

Member
Because they compared the two in gameplay, then dropped the resolution for the series X, ran a benchmark, and compared the two without stating they dropped the resolution, in comparison to the pc version. That's a bit disingenuous if you ask me. It's like comparing native 4k to checkerboard 4k.

Where'd this nugget come from?
 

Bernkastel

Ask me about my fanboy energy!
Bernkastel Bernkastel Bernkastel Bernkastel Nope, MS doesnt make even a billion dollars frm Xbox.

I am not taking this news seriously. 10 million consoles * 100$ loss = 1 billion $. you can develop 20 AAA games using that money. This loss is bigger than Xbox's profit margins from their best years.

Microsoft is least interested in attracting Playstation customers. 100 million PS owners are minuscule compared to 1.3 billion PC gamers ( even this no is widely under-representing PC ). PC gamers are mostly frm developing countries who want cheaper console and even cheaper games. Lockhardt and Gamepass is the way for MS.
I'm just adding it all together with gamepass and stuff the constant sales on everything etc.. It's hard to think how they're making that 10 billion but I guess it's all planned out by peeps much smarter than me it has to be working for them.
The Xbox division does make 10 billion dollar a year
Still less than Sony, but they dont operate at loss but are very profitable, unlike many people on GAF think they are. And yes, hardware does not make any money.
 
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Where'd this nugget come from?
There was a write up on here in the digital Foundry thread somewhere. They compared the game running at native 4k on pc and it's benchmarks, then compared it to series X. There was no way to get near 100fps in a benchmark compared to running 60fps in game, without dropping below 4k resolution. If you've messed with the graphics settings in Gears 5 or Gears tactics, you would see how obvious this was.
 
For one, getting market-share using predatory pricing is a crime. If the pricing is within sustainable parameters, then Sony will match it. There is nothing wrong in loss-leading pricing, but pricing cannot be used to kill competition(taking market share / driving competitor into losses).

“From what I’ve seen, Sony’s going to have to charge $500 for their PS5, and Microsoft has a big balance sheet,” Pachter said, “if they want to cut the price by $100, just price below and subsidize the first ten million, they will.”

Now if MS does this, Sony will file an Anti-Trust suit. Headlines will read "a 1.4 trillion Microsoft trying to kill a small 80 billion enterprise".

Uh...I'd just like to remind you that a certain Atari president made a very similar claim about Sony back in the mid '90s when they were competing with the Jaguar. They basically accused Sony of price-fixing if they sold the PS1 for $299 in America and (IIRC) would take them to court over it.

Well, PS1 released in America for $299, and nothing happened :LOL: . Truth of the matter is anti-competitive practices like predatory pricing are only a crime when the company is proven to 1: pricing severely lower than manufacturing and production costs and 2: actively stifling/preventing competitors from being able to fairly compete in the same marketplace.

This is why MS went to trail in the late '90s over things like Internet Explorer vs Netscape Navigator; since they owned the OS (Windows), they also bundled in IE for free and conducted practices where 3rd-party web browsers either couldn't get full access to Windows APIs or could not realistically offer their alternative on a platform Microsoft owned. THAT is predatory pricing and business tactics, not selling XSX for $399 (and that's even considering they can justify pricing it that low), because they don't own the retail chains, they don't own Sony's online distribution network, and nothing really stops Sony from pricing PS5 at $399 either other than financial reasons tied to their own vested interests and forecast market performance.

By your notion any company that prices their hardware well below production costs even if to liquidate stock is effectively doing some form of predatory pricing, since it is effectively them losing money on hardware sales. SEGA basically gave the Dreamcast away in late 2000/early 2001 by throwing in some years of SEGANet for free that cancelled out the cost of the hardware through rebates, don't think you can claim such is predatory pricing or business practices however. Likewise, SEGA could've accused Sony of predatory pricing and business practices during the '90s since Sony leveraged their in-house chip fabrication, optical disc drive production and various hardware from their other divisions (plus their vast distribution network) against SEGA and Nintendo..but they didn't.

In fact the only time a video game company has been found guilty of any type of widespread predatory pricing or anti-competitive business practices was Nintendo of America when they were taken to the US courts and found guilty of anti trust violations in 1991. They had to offer rebates to NES owners of some amount (I don't remember the actual amount) due to them leveraging their near virtual monopoly at the time against competitors like SEGA, NEC and Atari. So basically, the one time any company has done anything to a near equivalent of what you're suggesting in the gaming industry, wasn't even Microsoft, but Nintendo of America xD.

If a corporation has the financial means to basically fight with money, they have the legal freedom to do so. So long as they don't break any laws and, again, pricing a console with a possible BOM of $500 for an MSRP of $400 is nowhere near skirting the line of predatory pricing or any other illegal business practices.

There is nothing wrong in loss-leading pricing, but pricing cannot be used to kill competition(taking market share / driving competitor into losses).

Just noticed this part and have to add: Sony arguably did this to SEGA. They leveraged the fact they didn't need to pay licensing fees for CDs (and later DVDs), plus the fact they could just take CD and DVD drives made in-house through other divisions and product lines, into managing costs of PS1 and PS2 in a way SEGA could not do with Saturn and Dreamcast. So again where is the outcry that Sony drove SEGA out of the console market as a platform holder?

Now the sensible side could frame it as SEGA drove themselves out and that's mostly true (sadly), but if a company like Sony took SEGA's circumstances and played off them to gain market advantage and push SEGA into taking even bigger losses, does that suddenly not qualify as a practice of predatory pricing on their end? Either you apply that type of stuff across the board with everyone, or you realize the definition you have in mind for the idea in question is way too loose and would indite a LOT of other gaming companies as being guilty of such practice.
 
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Hydroxy

Member
The break-even is probably about $600 max. The components just don't add up to more than that, a lot of the moves they've made are focused on cost cutting (even the tower design is cheaper to produce and cool than the more traditional dev-kit variant). I expect $499 with anywhere from $50 - $100 loss on early units. Production costs will drop considerably faster than the retail price (the PS4 is still $300), so, things even out after the first 12-18 months.
I agree. I also see it costing $499. Unfortunately outside US, Its gonna cost much more due to taxes and duties. So both PS5 and Xbox gonna be expensive consoles to own initially atleast outside the US.
 

DaGwaphics

Member
There was a write up on here in the digital Foundry thread somewhere. They compared the game running at native 4k on pc and it's benchmarks, then compared it to series X. There was no way to get near 100fps in a benchmark compared to running 60fps in game, without dropping below 4k resolution. If you've messed with the graphics settings in Gears 5 or Gears tactics, you would see how obvious this was.

Gears 5 runs naturally better on AMD (obvious) and marching 5700XT results forward from a similar test based on the compute and bandwidth improvements, it doesn't look out of line to me.
 

Dabaus

Banned
1: No.

2: Lockheart exists for a reason.

3: If it isn’t apparent from Thursday’s shit show, and previous E3s, Xbox doesn’t have the infinite budget some of you think they have. Every new quarterly report we get 50 percent declines here, no percentage growth there. Quarter, after quarter, after quarter. The bean counters at Microsoft aren’t giving Phil a blank check.
 

AGRacing

Member
Give me a launch Forza that is more fun than 7 and 399 and there’s no way you can keep me away from this box.

And by more fun I mean don’t force me to drive cars I don’t want to drive.
 

Andodalf

Banned
For one, getting market-share using predatory pricing is a crime. If the pricing is within sustainable parameters, then Sony will match it. There is nothing wrong in loss-leading pricing, but pricing cannot be used to kill competition(taking market share / driving competitor into losses).

“From what I’ve seen, Sony’s going to have to charge $500 for their PS5, and Microsoft has a big balance sheet,” Pachter said, “if they want to cut the price by $100, just price below and subsidize the first ten million, they will.”

Now if MS does this, Sony will file an Anti-Trust suit. Headlines will read "a 1.4 trillion Microsoft trying to kill a small 80 billion enterprise".

will that do better than the lawsuit XB1 had vs PS4? What about the Galaxy S20 Ultra being outperformed by a 400$ iPhone? There’s got to be HUGE Lawsuit about that, right?
 
Gears 5 runs naturally better on AMD (obvious) and marching 5700XT results forward from a similar test based on the compute and bandwidth improvements, it doesn't look out of line to me.
Ummmm... What? Where did you find that nugget?! Look at the very bottom of the benchmarks.


4CPaSzw.png
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
I am not good with maths but a quick estimate.
Say at a minimum the xbox costs 600 to make they sell it at 400.
that's a 200 dollar lose per each unit.

Lets say they sell thirty million consoles in the first 5 years.
200 lose x 30 000 000
6.000.000.000

That a sink of 6 billion dollars on a £200 lose.
If my math is wrong please feel to correct me.

2 things, yes price's will come down over time when their are better yields and improved engineering procedures.

But that's is also assuming that 600 dollars is the cost creating the box to begin with, it could be more, alot more, 700, 750.

Thats a crazy cost sink if i think about it like that, i am sure there are many more things to consider, this is very basic.

I just don't want xbox fans to get to excited at a 400 dollar price, or they might end up being really disappointed.
It's been a roller coaster of pricing over the decades.

I don't think NES, Genesis and SNES sold at a loss. Not sure about PS1 and N64, but I think Saturns were sold at a loss. The PS2/Xbox and PS3/360 eras had big losses the first few years, but every console maker smartened up and sold PS4s and Xbox Ones at around break even I think at launch.

Don't know what kind of appetite console makers have going back in the red $100-200 again.

But they surely know that a $400-500 price is basically as far as it goes for big sales. $400 is the big one. Even if these systems were 15TF+ beasts, I still don't see them selling gangbusters at $500 even though on paper the tech specs show great value.

Gaming has a hard stop mindset at that $400 or less price bracket. You could have a 3080Ti jammed in for a $500 system and most console gamers and mom and pops would still say forget it. Wait till it goes on sale for $400.

BUT we;ve never seen both PS and Xbox systems both at $500. So if they stick to this, gamers might be desperate enough just to dive in at $500 and set a new price threshold going forward. Generations ago the price threshold was Nintendo $200, PS/XBox $300. Then it creeped up to Wii $250 and 360 $300-400 and PS3 launching at $500-600. Both systems settled down with peak sales years at that $300-400 range. PS4/Xbox One $400 (or $500 with Kinect). So prices have slowly edged up the past 20 years. It might be that time to edge it up again.

I'm going to take a guess and say whatever SeX costs are, MS will sell it for $50-100 less. They've been aggressive the past few years and since they now make $10 billion in profits per quarter, they can funnel some money to Xbox and not blink.
 
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Interesting could sworn I was getting 60fps max settings on rtx 2080 my memory is getting poor.
I'm not sure what cpu was paired with these gpu's, as my fps were much better on 2k than what was stated, as I'm running between 2k and 4k (3440 x 1440 ultrawide), and getting better frames than stated 2k resolution. Maybe MSAA is maxed out for these?
 
DaGwaphics DaGwaphics US is not the only market. Google being fined for monopoly, is just the begining. Big Tech is increasingly being looked at suspiciously.

thicc_girls_are_teh_best thicc_girls_are_teh_best There is no objective yardstick to measure a predatory price. If a competitor is forced to go into losses trying to match your price ( when both of you are below manufacturing/servicing cost ) that is an unsustainable pricing. British Vodafaone was one of the recent victims of this.

Leveraging internal R&D to reduce prices reduces BOM or BOS itself. There is a limit to how much one can cook books. Anyways why go deep into this ?

There was a recent article, about the prospects of MS buying Walmart. There was a caveat that it would be best if MS bought a smaller player like Costco to avoid Anti-Trust Law. MS is projected to make 45-50bn$ PROFIT in FY20. It can raise billions by pledging its shares as collateral. Now if it uses this money to play around with prices, it is financial manipulation not investment. I am an employee at a big tech, even i would be opposed to such power being in the hands of few corporations.
 

Andodalf

Banned
I'm not sure what cpu was paired with these gpu's, as my fps were much better on 2k than what was stated, as I'm running between 2k and 4k (3440 x 1440 ultrawide), and getting better frames than stated 2k resolution. Maybe MSAA is maxed out for these?

Does their “Ultra” include insane settings? Iirc just setting the game to Ultra excludes those
 
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nikolino840

Member
If it’s 400 then Nvidia have mugged people off charging 1200 for 2080 ti when it’s around the same performance as the series x ,which DF proved in their gears 5 face off.

At least the price should drop ,by half hopefully of that card
Maybe we should compare amd tech and their price
 

Jayjayhd34

Member
Doesn't make much sense from my perspective... why make a series S AND underprice your premium device?
The result will be that everyone will buy Series X and not S.

No they wouldn't they could have an even lesser gap and casual/parents will mostly go for the cheaper one,
 
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im on a 9700k
For the Digital Foundry video, they used an older threadripper cpu (of all cpu's?!) to benchmark the pc version :messenger_tears_of_joy: :messenger_tears_of_joy: .

You have nothing to worry about, great cpu!

Does their “Ultra” include insane settings? Iirc just setting the game to Ultra excludes those
That I'm not sure of, I'll have to go back and check it out when I get home. I remember gears 4 having insane as a setting, but I'd have to check for 5.



But regardless, this is why I think Series X will be $499 at least. There's no way AMD and Nvidia could continue to sell their pc hardware for "so much", if consoles are sold for $399 or less like some speculate. This would include a full case, cooling, motherboard, cpu/gpu, vram, storage, controller, wifi and other i/o controllers, packaging, logistics, and marketing.

Don't get me wrong, I would love Series X to be as cheap as possible, as this would disrupt things on the pc side, and Nvidia could sell the 3080 TI much cheaper than the 2080 TI. It would be a domino effect for Sony, PC's, and many other things in the industry. Would suck if games start being sold at 69 bucks in a few years though...
 

Jayjayhd34

Member
For the Digital Foundry video, they used an older threadripper cpu (of all cpu's?!) to benchmark the pc version :messenger_tears_of_joy: :messenger_tears_of_joy: .

You have nothing to worry about, great cpu!


That I'm not sure of, I'll have to go back and check it out when I get home. I remember gears 4 having insane as a setting, but I'd have to check for 5.



But regardless, this is why I think Series X will be $499 at least. There's no way AMD and Nvidia could continue to sell their pc hardware for "so much", if consoles are sold for $399 or less like some speculate. This would include a full case, cooling, motherboard, cpu/gpu, vram, storage, controller, wifi and other i/o controllers, packaging, logistics, and marketing.

Don't get me wrong, I would love Series X to be as cheap as possible, as this would disrupt things on the pc side, and Nvidia could sell the 3080 TI much cheaper than the 2080 TI. It would be a domino effect for Sony, PC's, and many other things in the industry. Would suck if games start being sold at 69 bucks in a few years though...

Nvidia not change there prices by a large margin if at all they will just release a beast for the rtx 3xxx series
 
They can take the loss I believe... Remember that MS has to aquire lots of potential new customers and use their services like Gold and Gamepass to take in the $$. After all that's what makes profit.. not the console after all so $399.99 might be realistic.
 

Andodalf

Banned
Because they compared the two in gameplay, then dropped the resolution for the series X, ran a benchmark, and compared the two without stating they dropped the resolution, in comparison to the pc version. That's a bit disingenuous if you ask me. It's like comparing native 4k to checkerboard 4k.

There was a write up on here in the digital Foundry thread somewhere. They compared the game running at native 4k on pc and it's benchmarks, then compared it to series X. There was no way to get near 100fps in a benchmark compared to running 60fps in game, without dropping below 4k resolution. If you've messed with the graphics settings in Gears 5 or Gears tactics, you would see how obvious this was.

What video is this in reference to? In their dedicated Gears 5 XSX video the only Benchmark Screen they show is the 2080TI, which they say scored a bit better than the SX, and in the end compare the SX more closely to a base 2080



They Show 62 FPS here for the 2080 Ti., and in this video they say they don't have a screencap of the XS bench.
 
Mmm.... I think they would love those 100mil ps owners business what you smoking ?
They want everyone from everywhere
PC /ps/Nintendo/android/apple etc all up for grabs .
Boss, wrong choice of words of mine. I apologize.

See a while ago, Phil Spencer said that Xbox saw Google and Amazon as their main competitors. How did the games news outlets frame it ? We all thought that he was speaking about Xcloud. There were memes on this.

We all know PS owners are spoilt by their exclusives. Why would you not put your best effort into capturing new prospective console owners ? Console gamers are deeply integrated into the ecosystem, they are difficult to get back. Entice the potential 1.3 billion PC gamers, dont slug it out with Sony. This is the market that Google and Amazon are targetting.

Analyst: 20 million PC gamers will jump to consoles by 2022
20 million is less than 2% of the current PC gaming population

Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/65720/analyst-20-million-pc-gamers-jump-consoles-2022/index.html
 
The Xbox division does make 10 billion dollar a year
Still less than Sony, but they dont operate at loss but are very profitable, unlike many people on GAF think they are. And yes, hardware does not make any money.

I'm not comparing them to Sony just curious but thanks for the info anyhow .
 

Jayjayhd34

Member
Boss, wrong choice of words of mine. I apologize.

See a while ago, Phil Spencer said that Xbox saw Google and Amazon as their main competitors. How did the games news outlets frame it ? We all thought that he was speaking about Xcloud. There were memes on this.

We all know PS owners are spoilt by their exclusives. Why would you not put your best effort into capturing new prospective console owners ? Console gamers are deeply integrated into the ecosystem, they are difficult to get back. Entice the potential 1.3 billion PC gamers, dont slug it out with Sony. This is the market that Google and Amazon are targetting.

There is not 1.3 billion pc gamers lol
 

kingpotato

Ask me about my Stream Deck
All the people thinking this price could happen are the mirror Microsoft versions of the Sony zealots who believed ps5 was going to be 15 Teraflops before it was announced. It's unrealistic.
 

Vawn

Banned
Its never worth it to buy a new console day 1. You get neutered sports games from previous years, lower budget intro games that any developer in their right mind won't sink too much into development for such a small user base and the worst build of parts in that generation.

Black Friday 2021 maybe if they prove its worth the purchase.

Of course it is. Not everyone is in the same financial bracket as you. I'd much rather have the console a year earlier than to save $100-$200.
 
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