Mark my words when I say this but I would honestly keep expectations on the lower end here - simply because COVID has really messed things up. I would argue that E3 2022 is really where its going to be at. I hate saying this, but I will be 100% transparent with you, I think most people will walk away disappointed with Microsoft's showing this year. I know we all have been waiting, but I might have to ask you to wait 1 more year.
Disclaimer - Despite me working in the Industry and heavily working with Microsoft in the past for many years, this is a PERSONAL prediction and only based on educational and logical guesses. I do NOT actually know anything inside-wise. So, please do not claim that I've said this and that.
You will most likely see
Halo Infinite SP/MP - Much More Improved with November Release Date
Forza Horizon 5 With September Release Date set in Mexico
Starfield Blowout
Forza Motorsport 8 for 2022
State of Decay 3 is a possibility
Perfect Dark - Possible gameplay snippet and a 2022 Holiday game
Everwild Update
1 New IP
More Game Pass stuff/surprises
Elden Ring (From Software mostly shows their stuff at Microsoft pressers, Dark Souls II, Dark Souls III, Sekiro and Elden Ring all were world premiers at Microsoft E3 stages)
You will most likely NOT see
Gears 6 - Too early and a 2024/2025 game (E3 2023 most likely)
Fable - Too early and a 2023/2024 game (E3 2022, 100% shown)
Hellblade 2 - Too early and a 2023/2024 game (E3 2022, 100% shown)
Awoved - Too early and another 2023/2024 game (E3 2022, 100% shown)
Multiple New IPs (E3 2022/E3 2023)
DOOM 3 - Too early (E3 2022 possible)