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Will Nintendo Switch reach the sales of the Sony PS2?

Will the Nintendo Switch reach the sales of the Sony PS2?

  • Yes

    Votes: 127 58.0%
  • No

    Votes: 92 42.0%

  • Total voters
    219
The Switch has a few things going for it in reaching PS2 lifetime sales

  • Cheaper than other major gaming platforms that could possibly take away sales, both $500.
  • Lack of a price drop, the Switch has yet to have a major price drop outside a rare temporary discount to $250 at select retails. A $199 Switch could extent sales life.
  • No competition in the handheld field, No PSP, No Nokia, No Vita gives Nintendo total domination with nothing nipping at its heels.
  • Demo targeting, OLED for the enthusiast, Regular for everybody, Lite for the kids or the train rider.
  • Plenty of stock, Switch is easy to produce and had stock before the shortages occurred, allowing it to be the most prominent gaming product on shelves and easy to find.

But there are also numerous things working against it

  • Weak graphics, as time goes on the limitations of the Switch become more obvious and certain ports are no longer possible in either of its two modes.
  • Battery life, it still had a short battery life that will always keep a certain group of consumers from buying the console, a minority but a major sales contributor.
  • Confusion, with 3 Switches out in stores, the average parent or ignorant buyer may have trouble picking out what they want.
  • Sales slowing down, https://www.engadget.com/nintendos-...ped-significantly-last-quarter-103810604.html
  • Lack of games in genres that are popular on home consoles will leave free money on the table that Nintendo doesn't seem interested in grabbing.
  • Poor features, there's a lack of features to enjoy other than games on your switch, and what is there is limited or badly implemented, like online.

When you consider that the Switch despite the pros and cons, is at 111 million units sold, it becomes difficult to determine whether the Switch can make it. We are talking about a difference of 44 million units.

Depending on who you ask the answers are similar to those who agree it will reach it and those who don't. Those who do say that the Switch has at least another two years of selling 10 million or more for each year, which would put it at 131 at the low, and then a decline to 6 or 5m, then 1-2 million after that allowing it to reach the legendary finish line.

For those that don't, they make note of the Switch being down across the year and don't see anything that would pick up sales for another 3 years to reach the finish line. They believe the outdated technology and a lack of audience expansion will hurt Switch sales sooner than later starting with this year.

Where do you place your prediction? Will the Nintendo Switch reach PS2 sales? Or will it manage to fall short like its cousin, the Nintendo DS?
 

Woopah

Member
I think it finishes at between 145 million and 155 million so just below. Once the successor is out Nintendo will want to focus production capacity on that, so supply of Switch will dry up fairly quickly.
 

BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
Definitely. Only because they will take too long to make a new one. And people will still buy them after the new one comes out for a while.
 

Yoboman

Member
If they keep selling it and people keep buying after its successor rolls around sure

It was a very slow climb to that number for PS2 after 120 million mark helped by continuing to release in markets that were essentially a gen behind
 

Fahdis

Member
Switch to me is not a Console. Do you guys consider the Deck a Console or PC? Its a new entity all on its own as a hybrid. So for what it is, its massively successful and has its own tier. Generally if the question is answered; it may fall short of 5-10 million units.
 
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TurnOneYeti

Gold Member
I think they have 2 or 3 more hardware revisions left in this console cycle that new and old Switch owners will buy into. "New Switch Lite OLED", Switch Pro, etc ... Nintendo fans are serial double and triple dippers. I think it eventually outsells ps2 but I still think PS2 was overall a much better generation. And I don't think the Switch so far holds a candle to the Wii.
 

CatLady

Selfishly plays on Xbox Purr-ies X
I think it will. Switch is a beast that still hasn't slowed down very much. I think it's just going to keep rolling on, especially when botW 2 releases.
 

Topher

Gold Member
More than likely. If it finishes the gen along with PS and Xbox definitely. It had the benefit of a mid-gen launch so if/when the next gen of Switch comes around then obviously the sales will taper down. The real question in my mind at this point is when does the Switch generation end?
 

Nautilus

Member
Considering the pace it is selling at, its very likely that it will pass the PS2 and DS and bevome the best selling console of all tine.
 
They might do? But dose it matter, surely the bigger question is whether is if people will upgrade to the switch 2 or not. I have the switch, the switch 2 will have to be a big upgrade for me to consider buying it, as will be very expensive.
 

StormCell

Member
Switch to me is not a Console. Do you guys consider the Deck a Console or PC? Its a new entity all on its own as a hybrid. So for what it is, its massively successful and has its own tier. Generally if the question is answered; it may fall short of 5-10 million units.
Does the Deck output to a TV and let you play using a comfortable gamepad? That's really all a console is. That's what Switch does -- I mean the dock is not "sold separately" (comes included), and the Switch is intended for TV play as much as it is for handheld.
No. I know people that had 3 PS2. Who has 3 Switches?
Married people. Families. There are lots of reasons for every gamer in a household to want their own Nintendo Switch. I own a Switch. My wife owns a Switch. My father-in-law has a Switch and my mother-inlaw has a Switch. My brother-in-law and sister-in-law each have Switches. I cannot remember any other piece of gaming hardware achieving this level of adoption. Not even the Nintendo DS was this heavily adopted, although its worldwide numbers will be near impossible to surpass.

Furthermore, I have sold my original Switch and bought a newer Switch, and my father-in-law has already upgraded from an OG Switch to an OLED Switch. It's friggin' crazy how this thing sells.
Easily. There‘s not really a reason to upgrade to the next generation, so why should they?
In spite of everything I said above, though, this marks the year where I've basically quit playing Nintendo Switch and almost nothing they announce or release has my interest. I've played Switch so dang little that I gifted my Switch away to our friend's 7 year old for his birthday so that the money he saved for it could go towards games.

To say that there's not really a reason to upgrade is short-sighted pure folly because I'm a rather diehard fan and I've dropped the system. It's not new or exciting. The system doesn't wow. The system chugs -- fact. I don't enjoy blurry visuals and choppy animation. All I really want is the ability to enjoy the system's best software played optimally, meaning at minimum 720p and 60 fps. I would even settle for 720p and 30 fps docked for games such as Xenoblade Chronicles 2. In the case of Breath of the Wild, the enemy pop in was bad enough to sour me on the system by the time I finally stopped playing the game.

As I said, this notion that the hardware is good enough just because it sells is shortsighted. This thing can go on to sell another 45 million units, but the longer we go on like this the more bridges there will be burned on account of hardware that was inadequate for the games since day one.
 
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FStubbs

Member
It has an outside chance, but that's it, an outside chance. It still has to get 44 million more and it's on the far side of its lifespan.

I don't think it'll make it.
 

Ogbert

Member
Still 3 PS2s. Lol
No, it’s not the same thing.

I will assume you are not being wilfully obtuse. There is an enormous difference between someone replacing hardware as opposed to someone choosing to buy an additional version of the same hardware, in tandem.

Nintendo (and Apple) are obsessed with getting people to buy multiple versions of the same machine, hence the small, iterative updates to the Switch that offer *just* enough to tempt a purchase.
 

Deerock71

Member
I think a $50 price cut across all three models before the holidays will ROCKET the Switch to a Christmas win.

EDIT- With no 'maybe' option, I voted yes.
 
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Ogbert

Member
I tell you what though, if Nintendo release Mario Kart 9, I can definitely see them struggling.
 

rodrigolfp

Gold Member
Married people. Families. There are lots of reasons for every gamer in a household to want their own Nintendo Switch. I own a Switch. My wife owns a Switch. My father-in-law has a Switch and my mother-inlaw has a Switch. My brother-in-law and sister-in-law each have Switches. I cannot remember any other piece of gaming hardware achieving this level of adoption. Not even the Nintendo DS was this heavily adopted, although its worldwide numbers will be near impossible to surpass.

Furthermore, I have sold my original Switch and bought a newer Switch, and my father-in-law has already upgraded from an OG Switch to an OLED Switch. It's friggin' crazy how this thing sells.
Cool. Still 1 system per person. Not 3.
 

rodrigolfp

Gold Member
No, it’s not the same thing.

I will assume you are not being wilfully obtuse. There is an enormous difference between someone replacing hardware as opposed to someone choosing to buy an additional version of the same hardware, in tandem.

Nintendo (and Apple) are obsessed with getting people to buy multiple versions of the same machine, hence the small, iterative updates to the Switch that offer *just* enough to tempt a purchase.
Replaced hardware is still sale counted. Or do you think there are 150+mi PS2 still working out there?
 

Bragr

Member
It's gonna hit 120 million by Christmas, it needs 38 million more to top the PS2.

The Switch 2 will not release until at the earliest 2024, so if BOTW 2 and Pokemon can keep the console popular, and a price drop hits next year, it might have a tiny chance. I don't expect it to sell 20 million a year anymore after this year.
 

StormCell

Member
Cool. Still 1 system per person. Not 3.
Unless you think multiple people in a family had multiple PS2's. What do you think the average number of PS2's in a single household was? I would say closer to 2 (one in the living room and one in a separate room for the kids).
 

Ogbert

Member
It's gonna hit 120 million by Christmas, it needs 38 million more to top the PS2.

The Switch 2 will not release until at the earliest 2024, so if BOTW 2 and Pokemon can keep the console popular, and a price drop hits next year, it might have a tiny chance. I don't expect it to sell 20 million a year anymore after this year.
A ‘tiny chance’?

Even if a Switch 2 comes out, games will likely be fully BC. Mario Kart 9, Odyssey 2, BoTW 2, the next four to five years of Pokémon are all going to be available on Switch.

I think it will still be chugging along in 2026.

Funnily enough, what I *do* think will be slower in sales is the Switch 2, for the same reasons.
 

Ogbert

Member
Wrong. Of course his 2 Switches counts for a single person. Lol
Ok then. So, for me, I have purchased three Switches for me and my family.

I have purchased one PS5.

Yes, if the PS5 breaks, I will replace it (although, tbh, I’d hardly miss it considering the lack of games).

My simple point is that as a product, Nintendo has designed a gadget that people buy multiple instances of , to be played at the same time and in the same house. Not to be replaced. To be added to.

This isn’t controversial. And it’s part of the reason why they have sold so many Switches.
 

rodrigolfp

Gold Member
Ok then. So, for me, I have purchased three Switches for me and my family.

I have purchased one PS5.

Yes, if the PS5 breaks, I will replace it (although, tbh, I’d hardly miss it considering the lack of games).

My simple point is that as a product, Nintendo has designed a gadget that people buy multiple instances of , to be played at the same time and in the same house. Not to be replaced. To be added to.

This isn’t controversial. And it’s part of the reason why they have sold so many Switches.
Yes. No one said otherwise.
 
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