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March 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
slavesnyder
Member
True. I love Gaf for the quality of insight I get from voices like yourself and others here in these threads, but sometimes the sheer extremity and insular nature of the community is a bit amusing, and disheartening all at once.
I just try to not invest into any arguments, and just sit back to read more and respond less so I can make more measured responses for when I do speak up in heated topics.
How Ratchet&Clank is shaping up your district?
Primethius
Banned
It's okay guys. I'm still unbanned. And that's what matters, right?
Thanks for the insight as always Abdiel. I'm hoping that QB pulls good enough numbers for Remedy. Love the studio and it's a shame they botched the PC version so badly as I was willing to shell out full price for it, but couldn't support them given the state of the game.
I think about 200k would be pretty good for QB. Especially as, it seems to me, the game didn't really get that big of a marketing push. But that might just be me spending too much time on GAF. If I hadn't known the release dates, I would've thought UC4 was releasing soon and QB was May.
Hopefully Chobel and Rex are back soon.
Thanks for the insight as always Abdiel. I'm hoping that QB pulls good enough numbers for Remedy. Love the studio and it's a shame they botched the PC version so badly as I was willing to shell out full price for it, but couldn't support them given the state of the game.
I think about 200k would be pretty good for QB. Especially as, it seems to me, the game didn't really get that big of a marketing push. But that might just be me spending too much time on GAF. If I hadn't known the release dates, I would've thought UC4 was releasing soon and QB was May.
D
Deleted member 471617
Unconfirmed Member
[3DS] 120K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 280K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 280K
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Why u single me out?
Because your prediction will not be counted if it is not in the format shown in the OP. They are trying to give you a heads up^^
Why u single me out?
because the one that make the counting for the ranking probable use a custom script to do the grunt work... and your entry will be ignored for being in the wrong format.
slavesnyder
Member
Why u single me out?
Just teasing, don't worry.
You have to use the brackets [...], otherwise donnie's magical automata can't read your prediction. Just copy the format from someone els and put in you numbers. Okay?
Damn, who would have thought so many people posted all over sudden...
If ~200K was a bomba for The Order I think it has to be for QB also. I mean, Quantum Break might be the most expensive exclusive so far this gen. Although Remedy is a small team the game has been in the oven for a long time, plus all of the live action stuff.
I'm also disappointed about the PC version because it was going to be the first thing I picked up when I get a Pascal card when they're available. If it isn't fixed by then I'll probably just forget about it.
slavesnyder
Member
Quantum Break PC version was the biggest support the Xbox division got from Microsoft in a long time.
Isn't it also MS's first attempt at a 1H 1st party exclusive I believe?(although that might be more due to having pushed the title out from the 2015 Q4 graveyard with all the juggernauts in the way).
Seems that in general this gen at least MS's strategy is to have a big 3rd party shooter marketing deal/ exclu in any given Q1 (TF, Evolve, The Division)
? In the QB PC performance thread?
Primethius
Banned
On one hand, I agree that 200k does kind of scream "bomba" for QB.
But as I recall, Alan Wake didn't really open to big numbers in NPD either (sub 150k wasn't it?). And with how little fanfare QB's release got, I'm just not sure what MS can realistically expect the title to do at retail. Surely MS can't have expectations higher then that, right?
I think the bigger problem for QB is that the PC version is god awful and unlike AW, they aren't getting those PC sales anytime soon.
But as I recall, Alan Wake didn't really open to big numbers in NPD either (sub 150k wasn't it?). And with how little fanfare QB's release got, I'm just not sure what MS can realistically expect the title to do at retail. Surely MS can't have expectations higher then that, right?
I think the bigger problem for QB is that the PC version is god awful and unlike AW, they aren't getting those PC sales anytime soon.
Playstation Store top downloads thread may be useful for those that like software predictions.
Sony always annunced the 10m mark for PS4.
10 million in August 2014
20 million in march 2015
30 million in November 2015
It was 35.9 million by end of December 2015. 4.1 million in 3 months is crazy, even for PS4. Should break 40 million soon anyway, most likely 1/2 weeks after Uncharted 4 release, and Sony should annunce it already, or wait for the E3...
Welfare
Member
I'd say the PS4 is due to pass the 40 million mark this month.
Let's see.
Next week should be at ~400,000 YTD in Japan, and as for February is 636,000 in USA. I expect 375,000 this month, so, by end of March i expect a bit over one million.
Seem likely anyway predict between 1.00 and 1.05 million in USA as for end of March.
So ~1.40 million in Japan+USA YTD... Japan is by end of 2015 ~6.5% of PS4 market, and USA is ~35%. Which mean Lifetime sales from those two market are >40% of worldwide sales.
Of course lifetime sales doesn't mean all, since USA marketshare since launch is dropped by not a small margin, and in Japan was released 3 months after USA and Europe.
But i think that ~40% should be close to the actual situation more or less, imo.
Now, about April, it's always an huge drop compared to March / February.
With a 400K territory in USA during March and February is almost sure the PS4 was selling over one million a month in March and February Worldwide, maybe even 1.2 million or more.
For sell 4.1 million in 4 months (January to April) it need to sell 1.02 million per month, but of course January and April won't be as big as February and March
So in conclusion... Now that i thought about this, end of May seem too late, i agree with this.
Gonna change my prediction with end of April / starting May, then.
Thanks Ryng.
Appreciate the response.
Nothing
AnthonypUK
Member
You think they hired B list actors to accept the order/ sunset over drive numbers?
This has to do something like 500k in my mind not to be a bomb, this is the Xboxes main territory, with circa 60% of their user base, they produced a video game AND A TV show, which can't be cheap, its been in development for ages, it has to perform.
If you want your entry counted, please use the format in the OP.
slavesnyder
Member
They should have included sports, though.
Yeah, I agree with Welfare. I think the PS4 will pass the 40 million mark sometime this month. So I'm going to go with a rough estimation again. It's in no way very accurate but it gives us a good idea of what to expect. So we know the sales in the US are roughly a third of the global sales. The PS4 did 230K in January and 407K in February. If we add them up we get 637K. Now if we assume the US:WW ratio remains, I think it's safe to say the PS4 sold ~1.9 million in the first two months. I don't think it's too far fetched that 2.2 million more will be sold by the end of April. Again, just my rough estimations.
Edit: Whoops, saw your later post. Guess we all agree, then.
ethomaz
Banned
I know It is download only but MK XL was in the last place for PS4.
I hold my prediction... it won't enter in TOP10 retail.
slavesnyder
Member
I think you are right.
Also: let's see if microsoft PR manages to mention Windows10 more often than XboxOne in their statement.
200k debut for QB would be awful.
If TO 1886 was about there and considered a flop, I fail to see how a much more hyped XB1 exclusive can be considered any different.
With no MP too, it'll maybe be a one and done deal for customers, with retail prices tumbling in the following months.
If TO 1886 was about there and considered a flop, I fail to see how a much more hyped XB1 exclusive can be considered any different.
With no MP too, it'll maybe be a one and done deal for customers, with retail prices tumbling in the following months.
3rdamention
Member
That does seem to be the case recently! I am also wanting a return to the glorious MAU update. It has been a few months since we have had a full updated MAU overall number.
It seems that since Microsoft moved to that metric, they have only mentioned it twice (I believe?).
MAU is getting too long in the tooth. She's getting a hip-replacment soon.
Watch her be replaced by her younger, sexier sister...DAU.
Bitch Pudding
Member
[3DS] 100K
[PS4] 300K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 250K
[PS4] 300K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 250K
Graphics Horse
Member
(CosmicQueso
Member
Mmmm whatcha say
Mmm that you only meant welllll
That actually paints a really good picture of the console market. Had that graph started in 2011 it would be much more bleak.
slavesnyder
Member
The mobile gold rush goes on. There's only winners.
Would like to see a statistic like:
X% of all mobile games make y% of the total money.
CosmicQueso
Member
They included this kinda vague pie chart
Buttons for on the go gaming apparently not such a big deal for the mass market.
ConfusedGamer
Member
[PS4] 333K
[XB1] 245K
[3DS] 125K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 245K
[3DS] 125K
[WIU] 60K
slavesnyder
Member
Fake NX controller pics weren't fake.
Nintedo on to something.
thank you.
I wonder how the mobile money is split between free to play, low-price and full price apps.
archnemesis
Member
[3DS] 155k
[PS4] 360k
[WIU] 55k
[XB1] 235k
[PS4] 360k
[WIU] 55k
[XB1] 235k
Bioshocker
Member
[PS4] 355K
[XB1] 260K
[WIU] 65K
[3DS] 100K
[XB1] 260K
[WIU] 65K
[3DS] 100K
They included this kinda vague pie chart
Is that pie chart even remotely accurate ?
Jack The Nipper
Banned
[3DS] 145K
[PS4] 334K
[WIU] 42K
[XB1] 185K
[PS4] 334K
[WIU] 42K
[XB1] 185K