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March 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 12th

D

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD March 2016 retail period (February 28-April 2, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, April 12th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: February 28-April 2, 2016 (5 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, April 14th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in March:
Easter sales (iffy for hardware) (Mar. 27) - week or two before Easter
Xbox One "temporary" price drop to $299 (March 21) - 17 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

February's Results (used for predictions)
1. PS4 - 406K
2. XB1 - 249K
3. 3DS - 176K
4. WIU - 70K

February 2015 NPD thread
March 2015 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
[PS4] 375,000
[XB1] 240,000
[3DS] 135,000
[WIU] 65,000

The Division gonna sell insane numbers like 2/3 million.
 
J

jjonez18

Member
[PS4] 390k
[XB1] 265k
[3DS] 125k
[WIU] 60k

Division 2m
Pokken 200k
MLB 300K

PS4 continues its strong YoY increase. XB1 in sleep mode till the playoffs. Division moved some consoles on both ends. XB1 helped out by the GameStop trade-in deals. Doesn't have much of an affect, but is enough to stave off a YoY decline. 3DS and WiiU are slowly, but surely being lowered into the ground by Ninty.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Everyone, please keep in mind that the rumors of the PS4K signify the death of consoles.
Click to expand...

Yes. Clearly the numbers should have fallen off cliffs.

All the cliffs.

So many cliffs!

Also, ps4 was easy leader this month as per usual.

Cosmic, your snark about Nights of Azure being a heavy hitter was not appreciated. It's a lovely game.

T_T
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
I have done awful so far this year so why not keep the streak going.

[PS4] 372,000
[XB1] 233,000
[3DS] 128,000
[WIU] 62,000
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Abdiel said:
Yes. Clearly the numbers should gave fallen off cliffs.

All the cliffs.

So many cliffs!
Click to expand...

Fortunately, the sales of gaming PCs will skyrocket, as everyone abandons the far too complex modern console environment.

Unfortunately, this will lead to a further inundation of digital sales of SW, making NPD even less useful in understanding the landscape.

May MAU bless you all in these turbulent times.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Alright, so this wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of February and March. This is where the weekly average aspect of this comparison is better than simple month to month, because March is a 5 week month while February is only 4. Putting this out for those that might wonder how consoles will perform this month.

Code: 
2010

Xbox 360 February: 422K / 4 = 105,500
Xbox 360 March: 338K / 5 = 67,600

Weekly average down 36%

PS3 February: 360K / 4 = 90,000
PS3 March: 314K / 5 = 62,800

Weekly average down 30%

Wii February: 398K / 4 = 99,500
Wii March: 558K / 5 = 111,600

Weekly average up 12%

Code: 
2011

Xbox 360 February: 535K / 4 = 133,750
Xbox 360 March: 433K / 5 = 86,600

Weekly average down 35%

PS3 February: 403K / 4 = 100,750
PS3 March: 365K / 5 = 73,000

Weekly average down 28%

Wii February: 455K / 4 = 113,750
Wii March: 290K / 5 = 58,000

Weekly average down 49%

Code: 
2012

Xbox 360 February: 426K / 4 = 106,500
Xbox 360 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200

Weekly average down 30%

PS3 February: 347K / 4 = 86,750
PS3 March: 337K / 5 = 67,400

Weekly average down 22%

Wii February: 224K / 4 = 56,000
Wii March: 175K / 5 = 35,000

Weekly average down 37%

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 February: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Xbox 360 March: 261K / 5 = 52,200

Weekly average down 31%

PS3 February: 262K / 4 = 65,500
PS3 March: 211K / 5 = 42,200

Weekly average down 36%

Wii February: 99K / 4 = 24,750
Wii March: 91K / 5 = 18,200

Weekly average down 26%

Wii U February: 66K / 4 = 16,500
Wii U March: 67K / 5 = 13,400

Weekly average down 19%

Code: 
2014

Xbox 360 February: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Xbox 360 March: 111K / 5 = 22,200

Weekly average down 22%

Xbox One February: 258K / 4 = 64,500
Xbox One March: 311K / 5 = 62,200

Weekly average down 4%

PS3 February: 102K / 4 = 25,500
PS3 March: 68K / 5 = 13,600

Weekly average down 47%

PS4 February: 269K / 4 = 67,250
PS4 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200

Weekly average up 10%

Wii February: 30K / 4 = 7,500
Wii March: 28K / 5 = 5,600

Weekly average down 25%

Wii U February: 82K / 4 = 20,500
Wii U March: 70K / 5 = 14,000

Weekly average down 32%

Code: 
2015

Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and no numbers were leaked for Feb-Oct) 

Xbox One February: 276K / 4 = 69,000
Xbox One March: 236K / 5 = 47,200

Weekly average down 32%

PS4 February: 342K / 4 = 85,500
PS4 March: 340K / 5 = 68,000

Weekly average down 20%

Wii U February: 95K / 4 = 23,750
Wii U March: 85K / 5 = 17,000

Weekly average down 28%

2016 February Weekly averages

Xbox One: 249K / 4 = 62,250
PS4: 406K / 4 = 101,500
Wii U: 70K / 4 = 17,500

Some notes:

- March is after the huge tax returns month of February. Even with an additional week, March is often a lower sales month than February, and demand drops heavily as we go into the slow spring and summer months.

- The average weekly drop from February to March is around 30% for Xbox and PS, while Nintendo can be a bit random, spanning between 20-40%. Only twice has the weekly average increased from February to March this decade, and that was with the Wii in 2010 and the PS4 in 2014. Why the Wii? I don't know really. A final push of sales now that the system had a price drop ($249 > $199 back in October 09) and stock being readily available? PS4 can be explained easily, as a sufficient amount of stock had been sent and launch demand was fulfilled.

- The biggest March ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 721k back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 601k back in 2009.

- No price cut happened in March during the 7th gen in the US, and the XB1 is the first console since the Xbox to receive one during the month, which is this year.

[PS4] 380K
[XB1] 271K
[3DS] 140K
[WIU] 57k
 
2

2thepoint

Junior Member
CosmicQueso said:
Fortunately, the sales of gaming PCs will skyrocket, as everyone abandons the far too complex modern console environment.

Unfortunately, this will lead to a further inundation of digital sales of SW, making NPD even less useful in understanding the landscape.

May MAU bless you all in these turbulent times.
Click to expand...

I foresee a complete collapse in console sales because of this, and a knock-on of NPD also collapsing.

Nintendo may even be reconsidering releasing NX in these turbulent, multi SKU console times.*

*April fools....I would buy a PS4K, as well as NX and Xbox 1.5
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
I would love predict 140-160K for 3DS, but i fell like after that amazing February sales are gonna drop like a rock :(

Maybe that Pokèmon bundle the last week of February will help in March too but i doubt it...
 
R

Raylan

Banned
Just for shits and giggles:

Amazon March
em7N1UT.png


Amazon Hourly
FfpGnBC.png
 
D

DieH@rd

Banned
[PS4] 402K
[XB1] 243K
[WIU] 71K
[3DS] 119K



Just to add US Amazon rankings for March:

HW
#17 PSVR Launch bundle [$500 SKU]
#21 PS4 Blops2 bundle [$349]
#58 Xbone Gears Ultimate bundle [$299]
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Alright alright let's get this party started! First my predictions

[PS4] 346k
[XB1] 244k
[3DS] 137k
[WIU] 62k

Welfare said:
Mad digits
Click to expand...

Cheers as always for the breakdown Welfare. Much appreciated.

Now for
RexNovis' Bold NPD Predictions
March 2016 Edition​

1. Mortal Kombat XL will rank in the top five for the month and at least double the debut sales for last month's SFV. To clarify, I'm speaking strictly of the standard SKU for SFV which does not include Special Edition sales. This would mean MKXL would need to sell >360k.

2. The Division will sell more copies at retail on PS4 but the when counting the bundle it will sell the most on XB1

3. GTAV will continue its reign as the unstoppable juggernaut and rank in the top four titles for the month but, for the first time ever, (unless I'm mistaken) it will sell the most copies on XB1 thanks to the bundled retail physical copy on offer at many outlets following the release of The Division.

4. UFC will outrank Black Ops 3 on the NPD charts as the number two release for the month.

5. Pokken will rank and will sell more than Street Fighter 5 did last month. The latter will not chart this month.​
 
C

Conduit

Banned
[PS4] 370k
[XB1] 260k
[3DS] 70k
[WIU] 30k

Curious to see will Xbone go up in March because of that trade-in deal for more than 2 weeks. If not, then surely it won't have any impact against PS4 in April either.

And also i see Division at No1. with sales split 60% PS4, 40% XB1
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
[PS4] 350K
[XB1] 270K
[WIU] 60K
[3DS] 140K


RexNovis said:
Now for
RexNovis' Bold NPD Predictions
March 2016 Edition​

1. Mortal Kombat XL will rank in the top five for the month and at least double the debut sales for last month's SFV

2. The Division will sell more copies at retail on PS4 but the when counting the bundle it will sell the most on XB1

3. GTAV will continue its reign as the unstoppable juggernaut and rank in the top four titles for the month but, for the first time ever, (unless I'm mistaken) it will sell the most copies on XB1 thanks to the bundled retail physical copy on offer at many outlets following the release of The Division.

4. UFC will outrank Black Ops 3 on the NPD charts as the number two release for the month.

5. Pokken will rank and will sell more than Street Fighter 5 did last month. The latter will not chart this month.​
Click to expand...

So you're saying the sales of PS4/XBO versions will be practically the same, since I doubt The Division bundle is gonna sell that much.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Here's a breakdown of my bold predictions from last NPD

RexNovis said:
RexNovis' Bold Predictions Feb 2016:

1. Digimon Stories Cyber Sleuth will chart.
In a just world it would anyway... Let me dream!
Click to expand...

This one was unfortunately wrong but the game did sell relatively well so... all is not lost!


2. SFV will sell 300k or more
Click to expand...

*Sigh* Wrong again. This one really hurts. Hopefully it will defy the odds and go on to sell well following the promised support.


3. One Fire Emblem Fates SKU will rank and will rank higher than SFV (T_T) which will also rank
Click to expand...

Wrong! One Fire Emblem SKU did rank but it failed to outrank SFV which is fairly surprising given how poorly the latter performed.


4. Far Cry Primal will sell the most on XB1 in NPD
Click to expand...

Wrong again. Primal appears to have sold better on PS4 albeit I'd wager by a smaller margin than the HW gap would imply thanks to it being in a genre and franchise that has historically done well on Xbox.


5. PS4 will outsell XB1 by at least 150k.
Click to expand...

Correct. PS4 managed to outsell XB1 by a whopping 157k units in February. This was actually one of the predictions I was most worried about. I thought 150k was really high balling it.


6. PS4 will sell more than 7x the number of WiiUs sold.
Click to expand...

Wrong. WiiU actually performed a lot better than I anticipated in February. Even still PS4 managed to sell almost 6x the number of units as the WiiU this month.


7. GTAV will rank #3 or higher on the software chart
Click to expand...

Nailed it. GTAV ranked in at #3 this month proving once again that it is an absolute sales monster.


8. Seige will rank in at 8 or higher and continue to sell the most on XB1
Click to expand...

Wrong again. Siege was not ranked in February NPD which given the low sales bar kinda surprises me to be honest. Find myself wondering how close it was.


9. Minecraft will sell more than Fire Emblem
Click to expand...

Correct. Minecraft was exactly one rank higher than Fire Emblem in February NPD. It was actually much closer than I thought it would be.


So it looks like I'm sitting at 4 out of 9 with my bold predictions. Not exactly the best batting average but hey it wouldnt be fun if it wasnt risky!


Chobel said:
So you're saying the sales of PS4/XBO versions will be practically the same, since I doubt The Division bundle is gonna sell that much.
Click to expand...

Yea I think it will be pretty close. It hits a lot of the notes that really seem to appeal to the XB1 user base. Couple that with the advertising and timed DLC and I think retail will be very very close. Close enough that the minimal bundle sales might give it the edge.

But it is far from garuntreed. It's a risky prediction. It wouldn't be bold if it wasn't :)
 
C

Conduit

Banned
RexNovis said:
Yea I think it will be pretty close. It hits a lot of the notes that really seem to appeal to the XB1 user base. Couple that with the advertising and timed DLC and I think retail will be very very close. Close enough that the minimal bundle sales might give it the edge.

But it is far from garuntreed. It's a risky prediction. It wouldn't be bold if it wasn't :)
Click to expand...

I think The Division bundle didn't do shit. Even with that trade-in deal.
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
RexNovis said:
Correct. Minecraft was exactly one rank higher than Fire Emblem in February NPD. It was actually much closer than I thought it would be.


So it looks like I'm sitting at 4 out of 9 with my bold predictions. Not exactly the best batting average but hey it wouldnt be fun if it wasnt risky!
Click to expand...

But you just said "Fire Emblem", not a specific one.

Cause combined it was higher. ;)

I don't I have any bold predictions for march. The Division will do a lot.
 
S

Sterok

Member
RexNovis said:
Correct. Minecraft was exactly one rank higher than Fire Emblem in February NPD. It was actually much closer than I thought it would be.
Click to expand...

Minecraft sold more than each Fire Emblem SKU, but combined Fire Emblem sold a lot more in February.

I assume all the PS4K talk is mostly invisible to your average consumer right?
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Mory Dunz said:
But you just said "Fire Emblem", not a specific one.

Cause combined it was higher. ;)

I don't I have any bold predictions for march. The Division will do a lot.
Click to expand...

Sterok said:
Minecraft sold more than each Fire Emblem SKU, but combined Fire Emblem sold a lot more in February.

I assume all the PS4K talk is mostly invisible to your average consumer right?
Click to expand...

I was referring specifically to the NPD rankings. So since that was split by SKU that's what I counted.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
For the fun, if someone forgot it, there is currently a bet about Twilight Princess sales between me and Welfare.

Under 235,000 i lost, he won, over 235,000 i won, he lost.

Good luck and you will be always my favourite friend on GAF. :p

Chobel said:
Avatar bet?
Click to expand...

Yes.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
For the fun, if someone forgot it, there is currently a bet about Twilight Princess sales between me and Welfare.

Under 235,000 i lost, he won, over 235,000 i won, he lost.

Good luck and you will be always my favourite friend on GAF. :p
Click to expand...

Avatar bet?
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
For the fun, if someone forgot it, there is currently a bet about Twilight Princess sales between me and Welfare.

Under 235,000 i lost, he won, over 235,000 i won, he lost.

Good luck and you will be always my favourite friend on GAF. :p



Yes.
Click to expand...

Yeah no way TP is below 235,000.

I feel like Pokken could be near 200...and TP....I'm not even sure. But my very least is 250. They both did well on Amazon at least.
 
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