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March 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
The barrier of entry for the top ten will at least be SFV's launch sales. Not happening.
ethomaz
Banned
That will put in check the Ubisoft claim about best selling new IP because outside US it sold way less than Destiny... so it needs to do really well in US.
Feeling much better about my XB1 split prediction now
So we are in agreement on the sales split then. Not comfortable predicting a sales ceiling for The Division myself.
Agree on the bottom 10 placing but I do think Twilight Princess has a chance to sell 300k and I think it will chart higher than Pokken
Oh I see how this is gonna be. Well then this is gonna be interesting
How would we know the answer to this? Its doubtful ti will rank. Are you counting on getting LTD sales info from cream or something?
Let's talk about what will happen in March
- Division will do less than 2.5m and PS4 will sold the most including bundles... my range is 2.0m to 2.3m.
- MLB The Show 16 will do over 200k but less than 250k
- The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess will do less than 250k
- Pokkén Tournament will do less than 200k
- Mortal Kombat XL is out of TOP10
Edit - Checking others predictions... lol am I going crazy with hw?
Happy that others are participating in the predictions this time around
I don't agree with your last three predictions. I think the Pokemon brand is too strong to see Pokken sell sub 200k and ditto for MKXL being unranked.
As far as Twilight Princess goes what were the debut figures for Windwaker HD? DO we have any indications to how well it sold? That should give us a base for our predictions on the Twilight Princess' sales potential
Welfare
Member
Hoping we get an update when this happens.
Like an official update from MS? That seems .... unlikely.
If this was adressed at my prediction I am as far from a SFV hater as any rational person could possibly be but I am also not deluding myself about its popularity/sales potential. Its just not feasible no matter how much I wish it was.
You seriusly expect less than Watch Dogs?
Alright, my predictions:
- The Division around 2.5m, 1.32m on PS4, 1.18m on XB1.
- Zelda Twilight princess over 300K at retail.
- Pokkén almost 250K at retail.
- Mortal Kombat XL less than 100K
- Hyrule Warrios Legend less than 80K
Wasn't < 150K you'r first prediction?
Have you changed you'r predictions after saw the PAL chart?
- The Division around 2.5m, 1.32m on PS4, 1.18m on XB1.
- Zelda Twilight princess over 300K at retail.
- Pokkén almost 250K at retail.
- Mortal Kombat XL less than 100K
- Hyrule Warrios Legend less than 80K
Wasn't < 150K you'r first prediction?
Have you changed you'r predictions after saw the PAL chart?
Nope. Release date was March 29th.
CosmicQueso
Member
SFV will be in the top 10 what? Surely you don't mean sales?
Take the over. Bet the house. Forget that, bet the planet.
Take the over. Bet the house. Forget that, bet the planet.
Welfare
Member
No, that'll never happen. Like an unofficial update through ovens and windows.
All I need is for it to be below thatWasn't < 150K you'r first prediction?
Habe you changed you'r predictions after saw the PAL chart?
I swear I'm going to get screwed by yet another adventure game in March, but you know what? I'm fine with it if it happens.
All I need is for it to be below that
I swear I'm going to get screwed by yet another adventure game in March, but you know what? I'm fine with it if it happens.
Well i just see unlucky Zelda under that number with the Europe charts we have...
Was something like 30-40K first week in Germany alone (outsold the second week of FC Primal), and France should not be much difference, is true that the legs were crap, but with that strong first week i see very possible >235k not only in USA, but even in Europe since we talk about 5 weeks...
...And you know, USA is way bigger than Europe for Nintendo.
And YES, Amazon is another point, cause ok, if a game sells "great" on Amazon doesn't mean it's gonna sell great, but if sells like BEASTING, i hardly see it to flop. I mean, it outsold The Division for Xbox one in the yearly chart... how much gonna sell The Division for Xbox one, over 1 million? No way Zelda will be close to this, but only because in one store Zelda was bigger, i mean, i just don't see those small numbers in an intere month...
But hey, guess we will see! Like i said, i'm pround to have a bet with one of the best GAF predictor.
Guess it released in March after all
HAHA wow holy shit people are really underestimating MKXL. Like seriously guys. Prepare to be surprised..
Seems I'm also in the minority expecting XB1 to be the sales leader for The Division with bundles included. Should be a fun month this month. Lots of differing opinions.
Welfare
Member
It is in March. It released on the 29th.
Gotcha. I try to keep my predictions tied to the NPD month in question because it seems far likelier that we will actually get the needed info.
CosmicQueso
Member
Totally. Could crack top 3.
ethomaz
Banned
It is not a new game release... it is a GOTY Edition like.
TOP3 is close to impossible.
Division
COD
GTA
I think it will do less than 100k.
Welfare
Member
Is this based on how "GOTY" editions perform in a percentage difference to the original release or is this hype because it's MKX?
It's already sold over 2.4m, will such a large amount of people actually pick up MKX XL now?
DriftingSpirit
Member
I got a 160K gap.
CosmicQueso
Member
All these years and y'all still doubt me lol.
correction "some of y'all." I detect no doubt on my part.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
thanks Welfare
[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 230K
[3DS] 130K
[WIU] 65K
[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 230K
[3DS] 130K
[WIU] 65K
There is a PC version of The Division that did very well by PC sales standards. Destiny didn't have a PC version, and Watch Dogs didn't do that well on PC.
slavesnyder
Member
Shouldn't we?
CosmicQueso
Member
That's a deep question. Probably? But what are all of us if not metaphysical mysteries, traveling on the cosmic dust through never ending space?
FTFY.
This is why we won't see +3m in March NPD. But 1.7 million is insanity low, let alone 1.5 million.
PC version was huge, but nothing of crazy. Digital sales are surely better than Watch Dogs, but Watch_Dogs bigger market was the Europe, where it outsold Destiny. In USA you should compare The Division with Destiny which sold ~2.9 million first month. And not only we know the launch was bigger, we also know the legs are better.
In other words, no way The Division sell less than Watch Dogs first month which was 1.87m, even with huge digital sales.
theprodigy
Member
[PS4] 400k
[XB1] 250k
[3DS] 135k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 250k
[3DS] 135k
[WIU] 70k
My goodness. Did you cover everything...
I am surprised the PS4 is selling so well when it has no games.
[PS4] 380k
[XB1] 230k
[3DS] 135k
[WIU] 65k
slavesnyder
Member
This meme has to end.
It has Bubble Bobble!
Call of Duty sold more on XB1! Those advertising dollars at work. LOLz
seriously this one is by far my biggest pet peeve. Every single NPD thread: "bundles are not included" has to be reiterated ad naseum. It's straight up maddening
CosmicQueso
Member
Awww I'm sorry. I'm sure it is. That was just a throwback to the insanity months ago where that one poster was saying that Xbox One could never ever catch up to the PS4 primarily because it couldn't get "heavy hitters" from Koei. No offense to you or Nights of Azure meant!
slavesnyder
Member
Do we have any early retail impressions for QB?
slavesnyder
Member
Lost the link to the cool site with release dates. Can someone help me out?
Haha. I know. I remember the silliness of that whole string of comments. "Heavy hitters" my ass. Hence the dramatic T_T for effect. I know you weren't being offensive.
It's a lower end GUST Jrpg, that will likely sell a low end number of copies but still meet what they need to continue producing/selling games. My own impressions were very positive and the others I know that picked it up shared that perspective.
Heavy Hitter though, it most assuredly is not. Rofl.
Someone asked about QB's initial performance: Um. It's doing okay. Seems to have landed without much fanfare. As I expected, the people picking up the bundle were those wanting the white model, not really much for new customers. Plenty of Remedy faithful picked up copies though over the course of the release.
I mean, it's not really setting anything afire - our website has 14 ratings for the game... Somehow, only 2 ratings ahead of the as-yet to be released PSVR Launch Bundle (I love our stupid ratings system), and 4 behind Uncharted 4, also yet to be released, so, take that how you will. (sigh)
Basically, I can't really say anything about Quantum Break from the Best Buy perspective that makes it seem like it's anything but underwhelming. But maybe it's doing great at Gamestop. My friend who works in a local walmart had nothing positive to say, but that's a single store and I didn't press him for any actual data.
As much info as I can condense.
Thanks for the update Abdiel, great info as usual.
Wonder what'll be the chance that MS in their April PR would double up the number of AB licences sold by counting the free PC version separately... (Granted it would only inflate the sales so much, given that the offer was MS store only afaik).
Wonder what'll be the chance that MS in their April PR would double up the number of AB licences sold by counting the free PC version separately... (Granted it would only inflate the sales so much, given that the offer was MS store only afaik).
slavesnyder
Member
CosmicQueso
Member
That there is a long running rivalry.
Threads have been a little testier than normal lately. Not enough games coming out I guess.
The quantum break pc thread quickly became a graveyard... It's a shame, so many people accusing people of having agendas for being upset at poor performance, etc.
But guys, you know what does make me happy? Better than anticipated preorders of no man's sky. It's chugging away with solid numbers and people seem genuinely excited about it. It feels like the assumption of it being some small indie title like the vitriol I saw in threads on here over the price were way over blown. I'm probably going to snag it digitally though.
CosmicQueso
Member
You know how it works. If threads say that "thing" is the worst thing ever and will fail then it'll be awesome and successful. Same goes the other way. The 4k threads are no better.
I think that guy that was proclaiming MAU to be the greatest thing to ever happen got under some skins.
Obliterator
Member
Rex and Chobel both banned? SalesGAF whats going on...
slavesnyder
Member
I wonder what happens when VR support is announced. Or was it already? Or won't it happen?
I just hope the game will be good. Expectations in both directions are so extreme.
who's next to die? It's like Throne of Games.