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Ireland has first-in-world national referendum on gay marriage [Update: Yes Wins]

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Sorry for my ignorance, do they do exit polling in Ireland? Is there an idea how things are swinging? Or do we just wait for real results?
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Sorry for my ignorance, do they do exit polling in Ireland? Is there an idea how things are swinging? Or do we just wait for real results?

I guess there are no exit polls. It sounds like counting will begin at 8:30 AM tomorrow

EDIT:

@jqbilbao: As #MarRef polls close voter turnout in Dublin city is put at 62% & Dublin county 63%, reports @IrelandLive
 

ivysaur12

Banned
@jqbilbao: Other #MarRef turnout tallies:
Wexford 55%
Wicklow 50-60%
Galway 40-50%
Cork city 35-38%, Cork county 40%
(All via @IrelandLive)

.

HERE IT IS:

@LukeMartin_DL: Internal #Exitpoll from Dun Laoghaire shows Marriage Referendum will pass by very significant margin: 79% (MOE +/- 5 points) #MarRef
 

Jamie OD

Member
Sorry for my ignorance, do they do exit polling in Ireland? Is there an idea how things are swinging? Or do we just wait for real results?

Not usually. Rumours and guesses can develop over the next few hours but we just have to wait for the official result.

Edit: Welp.
 
@LukeMartin_DL: Internal #Exitpoll from Dun Laoghaire shows Marriage Referendum will pass by very significant margin: 79% (MOE +/- 5 points) #MarRef

This is the tastiest plate of crow I've had in a long time.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Still not official. Will know tomorrow. But, like, even if that exit poll is off by 5-10 points, wow.

Turnout was the only q, but that ended up not being an issue.
 

Dazzler

Member
Still not official. Will know tomorrow. But, like, even if that exit poll is off by 5-10 points, wow.

What makes me think caution about this is it's an exit poll from one constituency, in a liberal part of the country and probably not at all representative of the national figure

I really hope it is, though
 

Vagabundo

Member
Me: Tá.

Wife: Tá.

Feels good man. Very strong turn out in general. Up to 60% I think. Looking forward to the good news tomorrow.

K. That doesn't change my position though.

lol. it doesn;t change that your position is wrong. Referendums and our consitution are one of the strongest pieces of our republic.

But carry on with your position.
 

navanman

Crown Prince of Custom Firmware
Think the good weather this evening & long evenings has helped to bring out the usually reluctant voters. A higher turnout will favour the yes vote IMO.
My polling both (Dublin West) was seeing a good footfall at 9pm.
 
To put it in an American context, the Dun Laoghaire vote is like New York or Massachusetts in a presidential election.

Donegal is our Mississippi or Texas.
 

Kinsei

Banned
Me: Tá.

Wife: Tá.

Feels good man. Very strong turn out in general. Up to 60% I think. Looking forward to the good news tomorrow.



lol. it doesn;t change that your position is wrong. Referendums and our consitution are one of the strongest pieces of our republic.

But carry on with your position.

How would you feel if you had to let a bunch of people vote on whether or not you deserve human rights?

Don't give me that "your position is wrong BS" if you're not one of the ones that would be affected by this.
 
Hahaha, my mind went straight to that question after seeing the poll results. Are we that predictable? Anyway, the detailed excerpts are appreciated. The Globe and Mail article is a depressing read.

I saw some standup of Dara O'Briain's where he says he's an open and avowed atheist but still says he's catholic because it's just a thing you have to do if you're irish.
 

Dazzler

Member
I saw some standup of Dara O'Briain's where he says he's an open and avowed atheist but still says he's catholic because it's just a thing you have to do if you're irish.

Sure it's impossible to have yourself removed from the catholic church in Ireland. I've looked into getting them to remove me and right now it's not possible

I'm an atheist and don't want them counting me in their figures
 

Ithil

Member
Their "No" campaign is massively insulting to more than just gays, what with them trying to push the "All children have to have a mother and father". So apparently single parents, divorcees, widowed parents, etc, also aren't good enough?
 

Jamie OD

Member
Think the good weather this evening & long evenings has helped to bring out the usually reluctant voters. A higher turnout will favour the yes vote IMO.
My polling both (Dublin West) was seeing a good footfall at 9pm.

Also this is the first referendum in ages that the general public understood. Nothing like the Lisbon Treaty that was an absolute nightmare to explain in layman's terms or an election with nothing but anger or apathy aimed at the politicians.
 
How would you feel if you had to let a bunch of people vote on whether or not you deserve human rights?

Don't give me that "your position is wrong BS" if you're not one of the ones that would be affected by this.
Your position is wrong.

And you're not even irish so how does this affect you exactly?
 

RangerX

Banned
Dublin Castle will open its grounds at 9.45 tomorrow morning for 2000 people to hear the referendum result. I might stroll to take in the atmosphere. It will be a great day if we finally afford the same rights to gay and lesbian citizens that the rest of us have. A couple of my cousins are gay so I'll be well happy for them. Can't wait to see the face on that gobshite David Quinn too.
 

Orbis

Member
Their "No" campaign is massively insulting to more than just gays, what with them trying to push the "All children have to have a mother and father". So apparently single parents, divorcees, widowed parents, etc, also aren't good enough?
Also judging by the mentions of sperm donors/surrogacy, a big fuck you to everyone with fertility issues too. It's embarrassing, frankly. Clearly not every 'no' voter has the same reasoning, but there has been a lot of clutching at straws for reasons to support the 'no' vote and a lot of it is down right offensive to, as you say, more than just gay people.

Not to worry though, in years to come people will look at such people in the same way those who opposed female suffrage are looked upon now. Interestingly enough, some similar arguments were used against that.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
How would you feel if you had to let a bunch of people vote on whether or not you deserve human rights?

You do regardless. The only difference is that whether it's judges or the general public voting.
 

gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
Nervous now. But kind of hopeful and optimistic. Twitter and facebook might be a bubble of liberalism but it's hard not to think positively reading them. Certainly found lots of support in old friends I didn't expect.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
To those pro referendum. is divorce illegal? Are sterile people allowed to marry?
The referendum is good but this could have been done judicially

The physical and moral capacity arguments have always been BS.

Laws have to be consistent. If logic does not apply to laws then nothing does.
 
You're an interesting one to claim someones position is wrong.

I'm a minority and I'd be fucking terrified if my rights were put up to popular vote.
Once again you are not Irish. Our history, and how we got to a place that we can have our own constitution absolutely affects our views on the entire process.

Me personally, I'm hugely in favour of having a say in all these issues. I have faith in the Irish majority vote, and it looks like that faith is once again being proven right with the yes vote.

The referendum is going to pass almost assuredly so what exactly is the issue? This is good news.

As for your first point I'm not even gonna respond to that.
 

Dazzler

Member
It'd be easier to swallow the No campaign if they just came out and admitted they pretty much just don't like gay people
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
Once again you are not Irish. Our history, and how we got to a place that we can have our own constitution absolutely affects our views on the entire process.

Me personally, I'm hugely in favour of having a say in all these issues. I have faith in the Irish majority vote, and it looks like that faith is once again being proven right with the yes vote.

The referendum is going to pass almost assuredly so what exactly is the issue? This is good news.

As for your first point I'm not even gonna respond to that.

There was nothing in the constitution banning SSM right?

Referendum not necessary
 

Kinsei

Banned
Once again you are not Irish. Our history, and how we got to a place that we can have our own constitution absolutely affects our views on the entire process.

Me personally, I'm hugely in favour of having a say in all these issues. I have faith in the Irish majority vote, and it looks like that faith is once again being proven right with the yes vote.

The referendum is going to pass almost assuredly so what exactly is the issue? This is good news.

As for your first point I'm not even gonna respond to that.

Well yes, misplaced patriotism does tend to affect our views.

Yes this passing will be wonderful, but the issue is how they;re going about it and the nasty precedent it sets for other less popular minorities.
 

gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
To those pro referendum. is divorce illegal? Are sterile people allowed to marry?
The referendum is good but this could have been done judicially

Divorce is legal and yes, infertile couples can marry.

But judicially the courts to date always interpreted marriage as man and woman only. Not sure if one judge can overturn precedents like that.

Government could have legislated but it would have been very vulnerable to challenge based on above precedents.

A constitutional change would make it watertight. Only way here to do that is by vote.
 

RangerX

Banned
To those pro referendum. is divorce illegal? Are sterile people allowed to marry?
The referendum is good but this could have been done judicially

The physical and moral capacity arguments have always been BS.

Laws have to be consistent. If logic does not apply to laws then nothing does.

Divorce was legalized through a referendum here in 1995. It was precisely because marriage has the protection of the constitution that we are having the referendum. Civil partnership has significantly less legal protections than Marriage here. The wording of article 41 is very specific, only a man and a woman can get married. Judicial review happens when there is a level of ambiguity to the wording. That isn't the case here. Also Laws can be repealed by future governments.

Edit: Just reviewing the relevant article and it actually doesn't define marriage at all, so apologies for the error but in the Irish courts Marriage has been upheld as being between a man and a woman. So that is the position in common law.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Yes this passing will be wonderful, but the issue is how they;re going about it and the nasty precedent it sets for other less popular minorities.

Why is the precedent any worse than a judicial one? You assume that legal challenges will definitely be successful. That's by no means guaranteed to be the case. Most judges in such matters tend to find interpretations that fit their particular biases - look at Scalia in the United States! If every judge was a Scalia, gay marriage would still be illegal in the United States right now. The reason it isn't is because some judges are favourable to the idea, because of a long process of social dialogue about these issues that has over time persuaded a fairly large amount of judges as a class. This is no different to how referendums work, except you don't restrict the set of voters to judges and the social dialogue happens at a wider level.

Given that the average voter is *more liberal* than the average judge, you're actually more likely to succeed this way.
 
Hopefully to nip this in the bud, Irish, gay here and having to vote on my right is the most terrifying thing going. Tomorrow, hopefully when it has passed I can look on with pride at the people of the country but the No sides dishonesty and attacks have been some of the worst things I've had to witness.
 

Herne

Member
Hopefully to nip this in the bud, Irish, gay here and having to vote on my right is the most terrifying thing going. Tomorrow, hopefully when it has passed I can look on with pride at the people of the country but the No sides dishonesty and attacks have been some of the worst things I've had to witness.

The shower of bastards at Iona can be blamed for a lot of that. The gall of them, to call themselves an institution. I can't wait for tomorrow's result.
 
N

NinjaFridge

Unconfirmed Member
That's great news, sadly.


Don't get me wrong, Donegal is beautiful, the people are nice, and it's not some equivalent bastion of conservatism. It's just more rural and much more traditionally Catholic.

I hear Bundoran is becoming popular with the gay community.
 
Once again you are not Irish. Our history, and how we got to a place that we can have our own constitution absolutely affects our views on the entire process.

Me personally, I'm hugely in favour of having a say in all these issues. I have faith in the Irish majority vote, and it looks like that faith is once again being proven right with the yes vote.

The referendum is going to pass almost assuredly so what exactly is the issue? This is good news.

As for your first point I'm not even gonna respond to that.

I think the US has a better system. They require a three-fifths supermajority(this currently equates to 38 states) of state legislatures or state conventions to ratify any amendment to the constitution. This requirement places an extra safeguard against fast-moving emotionally driven populist movements.

For matters that do not require an amendment then a court case covering the relevant topic will eventually rise to the Supreme Court which will simply make a ruling and set the precedent. This is how a lot of social changes happen in the US(etc Brown v Board of Education, Roe v Wade). The legislative and executive branches usually don't enact much meaningful social change. Good example would be marriage equality. The Supreme Court will almost certainly be the final word on marriage equality in the US.

Of course this whole business could have been avoided had the Irish constitution not made mention of marriage as being between a male and female only. Thanks ould Éamon.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...ve-high-turnout-will-carry-yes-vote-1.2222949

Campaigners for same-sex marriage believe the referendum will be carried on the back of high turnouts in urban centres and massive engagement by younger voters.

Minister for Agriculture Simon Coveney, Fine Gael’s director of elections, told The Irish Times he was hopeful the proposition would be carried when votes were counted on Saturday.

Mr Coveney also said there was a sense as people voted of Ireland “letting something negative go, leaving a prejudice we know is there as part of our history behind us”.

Also a few no proponents basically admitting they probably the lost.
 
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