Yeah I think somewhere between $200m and $300m should be the cutoff. Unless it'll have a GTA5 Style GAAS or the console total is over 100 million.
For instance, if TLOU3 cost $350 million to make that's fine because it'll come out after the PS5 is over 100 million sold.
By that logic the next gen games should have a small budget which wouldn't make impressive games to help sell the hardware.
I think their strategy moving forward is wise.
Keep making single player AAA games. Launch on PC after about a year.
Make GAAS games internally and with partners that will launch on PS and PC (and Xbox and Nintendo for Bungie).
Build out the PC experience with the launcher, store, full trophy integration etc.
Launch PS+ premium through TVs and streaming sticks etc.
Cosy up to developers and publishers who are making GAAS games so Sony get 30% for each transaction for minimal effort (Genshin etc)
Work with 3rd party publishers to breathe life into older dormant PlayStation IP (Japanese publishers are doing this for Sony AA IP)
Work with specialists in untapped markets to build PlayStation IP (potentially into new genres) - e.g Horizon with NCSOFT etc
Build out on Mobile (development of IP and PS+ integration)
Raise the profile of all IP by leveraging PlayStation Productions.
Long term that looks sustainable. It keeps the console and AAA IP at the core of what they do while building out multiple revenue streams.
From a Sony/Microsoft perspective, Microsoft have repeatedly failed to make a dent in Sony's console business and will likely continue to flounder. The above represents Sony making some stronger steps into Microsoft's back yard.
From a Sony/Nintendo perspective, Sony would be getting out well in front of Nintendo, but it is worth remembering that currently Nintendo just need to be Nintendo as they are brilliantly successful. However, when the tide changes they may find themselves unprepared.