-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Fully Autonomous (Level 4) Vehicles on Roads 2020, say multiple industry reps
- Thread starter Kinitari
- Start date
- Status
Probably a lot less than at the moment.
shadowsdarknes
Member
Truck driving is to be a profession of the past I imagine. That's good. It's an unhealthy profession.
Car enthusiasts are going to be extinct soon. Save the manuals? Nah, there are bigger problems on the horizon. Just wait until the government forces everybody to have autonomous cars, just like all cars need to have airbags in order to save lives. As much as I love cars, public safety is way more important than my fun, but that's just me. Race cars and race racks will still exist, so win-win?
shadowsdarknes
Member
I think there are 3 million truck drivers in the US. If a mass layoff of truck drivers doesn't make us re-evaluate our concept of labor, nothing will.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
you'll probably see both.
for taxi (uber/etc) surcharges on your per-ride (depending on the area you are in)
for car manufacturers, rolled into a "subscription service" that offers updates to your car and other value-added services.
thats as long as we have car ownership. we are going to be going in the direction where we aren't even going to have car ownership anymore as a common thing. similar to how not everyone owns a horse anymore.
leases will probably be reformed into essentially transportation subscriptions.
I cannot see this being a full nationwide thing. I can still think of too many instances, while not every time I drive, that are common enough a computerized vehicle would have issues dealing with it. Mostly, snow related situations where there are no visible markers on the road and lane configurations have changed due to snowbanks/space. Somehow a computer is going to have to figure all of this out dynamically only from other traffic around it and completely ignore internal/gps maps. I can't even begin to think of how hard that would be to program, and how to program when it's appropriate and safe to do so. So yeah, good luck to them. They've got their work cut out for them.
This isn't going to ever happen. You still have pedestrians to worry about and 1000+ pound piece of metal will never be able to instantly stop (nor will the passengers survive such a stop). Speed limits changes will be a lot less impressive than people think. Again, sure the computer may be able to instantly react at about 10ms vs a human at 250ms to a deer suddenly on the road, but it's not going to matter when your autonomous vehicle cannot physically move itself away and you plow into it at 100mph. You're more dead than ever.
This isn't going to ever happen. You still have pedestrians to worry about and 1000+ pound piece of metal will never be able to instantly stop (nor will the passengers survive such a stop). Speed limits changes will be a lot less impressive than people think. Again, sure the computer may be able to instantly react at about 10ms vs a human at 250ms to a deer suddenly on the road, but it's not going to matter when your autonomous vehicle cannot physically move itself away and you plow into it at 100mph. You're more dead than ever.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
which happens a lot anyway with humans driving. far more than it should.
DonasaurusRex
Online Ho Champ
we dont have horses anymore becase we buy cars , not subscribe to a service that allows us to use one, We can go anywhere freely on any open road or road we pay to travel on. Who will own the car and decide your travel when things become autonomous subscribe to drive? Will car" companies" pay for the roads since the avg "user" is just paying to use a vehicle as a service and owns nothing?
Evolved1
make sure the pudding isn't too soggy but that just ruins everything
If drivers weren't such shit, maybe you'd have a case to make. Eventually the numbers, safety and efficiency, will overwhelm any argument. Eventually.
DrGonzo615
Banned
Going 100mph in a city?
Evolved1
make sure the pudding isn't too soggy but that just ruins everything
Insurance. With much lower premiums, btw.
I disagree, cars could be built far more safely if they didn't have to be made with the driver in mind. Just like the Model S is the safest car in a collision because there is no huge, metal engine a driverless car can also do away with dangerous but necessary things such as steering wheels and tons of windows for visibility. Furthermore, autonomous cars would be able to predict collisions before they occur and trigger airbags and other safety devices before or immediately at impact.
It probably makes driving that even easier and faster because a slow mofos will not be able to clog the traffic lol
crazygambit
Member
This is a slow transition obviously, it's not like we should outlaw human driving by 2020. 2050 though? Maybe. Just like cars without catalytic converters are no longer allowed, classic cars will be just phased out in time, until they make up such an insignificant portion of total cars that they could be banned without causing much of a stir.
I would really like to outlaw cyclists, I think they're a huge danger on the road, but that's for another thread. Who's to say though, that by that time bicycles will also steer themselves, or at least be connected to the "grid" and aware of other automated cars and signal them to slow down in its presence.
Even if we were to keep traffic lights for a while longer, just picture the time it takes since the light turns green to when you can start going if you're at the back of the line. I've timed it and sometimes it can be over 10 seconds. If all cars are automated, they will all start at full speed the instant the light turns and they will keep a constant distance between themselves. That change alone should really speed up traffic.
Also just putting the seats rear facing like infant seats should have a major impact in safety. Something only possible with fully autonomous vehicles.
AtomicShroom
Member
You better believe that sooner or later it's going to be illegal to manually drive a vehicle on public roads. The safety hazard of a manual driver will no longer be tolerated as transportation accidents and casualties dwindle down to almost-zero.
DrGonzo615
Banned
Its going to be 'later'....as in much much much later.
Elitist1945
Member
I can't wait for the future. Amazing stuff.
https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961#.o27qlbj14
That's not including secondary employment from truck stops, motels etc serving truckers.
Absolutely, thanks for catching that. When self driving CARS are in the majority and humans keep causing accidents, then we'll potentially see changes to the law regarding it.
PeskyToaster
Member
it's incredible how big this industry is. the roll out of autonomous vehicles will probably take forever, especially to commercial trucking, but i wonder where the people will drift off to? it'll be something that they have to deal with at some point in their lives, even if it's not till 2030
Evolved1
make sure the pudding isn't too soggy but that just ruins everything
The government will have to do something. But idk what.
You tell a shipper they can ship cheaper, not having to pay a driver (of course there will be other cost) and faster, because robots don't have to stop and sleep for hours of mandatory downtime... yeah there's real incentive for change there.
unholyrevenger72
Banned
Yeah the laws won't change but drivers will be priced out of driving by their insurance.
Eh, I can see it both ways.
I also love driving... Though to be fair, it would be amazing to have a self driving car when I'm stuck in bumper-bumper traffic.
I'm sure it will be like the transition to smartphones, at first it's "why would I wan't one" and quickly it goes to "how did I live without this"
Probably fined and had his license suspended by the DMV/ State.
I live driving, but if this gets my girlfriend from out behind the wheel I'd say it can't come soon enough. It will be a game-changer on so many more levels than just the personal driving experience level.
We've had shifts that people had to adapt to before, but I don't know if any were as big or fast as this has he potential to be. 8m truck drivers and supporting services, maybe another 8m who rely significantly on those drivers for their livelihood. Then add in 250,000 taxi drivers, and all the local companies impacted by the loss of that income being spent.
How many of these shifts will it take before people start to seriously consider the need to move away from the concept of full employment and start working on what replaces it?
You can buy a cheap(ish) ford now that'll parallel park itself probably better than you can.
The transportation industry is likely going to see a quick enough revolution that lots of people will be taken aback, if not completely left in the dust. Logistics companies regularly replace their vehicle inventories due to wear and tear. The second a new model of automated truck is capable of transporting goods cheaper and more reliable than any human it's going to be a no-brainer to make the switch. The entire industry could transition within the span of a few years if there's money to be saved.
- Status