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Fully Autonomous (Level 4) Vehicles on Roads 2020, say multiple industry reps

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K

Kinitari

Black Canada Mafia
Nissan: 2020
http://phandroid.com/2016/01/16/nissan-ceo-self-driving-cars/
by 2020 we’ll have fully autonomous driving cars. Highways, cities, traffic- all of it.

...

In my opinion, this is a transition of 3 to 4 years, for a totally autonomous drive. Not an autonomous drive on the highway, or one lane: this is easy, we can do it now. But autonomous drive in all conditions – highway, downtown, cities, etcetera: this is 4 years. This is 4 years, in my opinion, down the road.”
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Tesla: 2018 (for a cross country trip - not necessarily full rollout)
http://www.fastcompany.com/3055336/...drive-across-the-country-autonomously-by-2018
Musk Twitter: In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY
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Ford: 2020 - Type 4 Autonomous (types below)
http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/ford-self-driving-cars-2020
From a technology standpoint, certainly by 2020 we can foresee what we call Level 4 autonomy, which is fully autonomous driving

...

I think it’s going to be more around transportation services as opposed to individual ownership. I think from that point going forward you’ll see more and more prevalence of these types of services, but I would imagine that a consumer’s first experience with autonomous vehicles would be as part of a ride service, for instance.
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Google - 2020 (I think - I see many people referencing a 2020 goal, but can't find a direct quote).

Google and Ford have also recently partnered up, which would align with that 2020 goal.

With the US government also working to legalize unmanned autonomous vehicles federally, I really think we'll see a completely different landscape in transportation globally in less than 5 years.


GM/Toyota/Lexus/Delphi/**Apple and more: 2020ish

All these companies either have come out with tentative possible dates around 2020 or are rumoured (*cough* Apple *cough*) to be working on self driving cars around that date.

It's a full on race at this point, with everyone realizing this shit is happening.

Google however seems to be far beyond anyone else so far in quality self driving systems, going by some stuff I read - for example:

http://robohub.org/googles-detailed-intervention-rates-reveal-the-real-unsolved-problem-of-robocars/


...
Google is now having one once every 74,000 miles
...

Delphi reports 405 disengagements in 16,600 miles — but their breakdown suggests only a few were system problems. Delphi is testing on highways where disengagement rates are expected to be much lower.

Nissan reports 106 disengagements in 1485 miles, most in their early stages. For October-November, their rate was 36 for 866 miles. They seem to be reporting the more serious ones, like Google.

Tesla reports zero disengagements, presumably because they define their vehicle as not having a fully autonomous mode.

VW’s report is a bit harder to discern, but it suggests 5500 total miles and 85 disengagements.

Google’s lead is overwhelming.
Click to expand...

This article goes into good detail about safety goals and realistic numbers, and I would recommend it as a read - but the take away I want to highlight here is that Google seems far and away, the furthest ahead.

Classification System:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Classification
In the United States, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has proposed a formal classification system:[10]

Level 0: The driver completely controls the vehicle at all times.
Level 1: Individual vehicle controls are automated, such as electronic stability control or automatic braking.
Level 2: At least two controls can be automated in unison, such as adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping.
Level 3: The driver can fully cede control of all safety-critical functions in certain conditions. The car senses when conditions require the driver to retake control and provides a "sufficiently comfortable transition time" for the driver to do so.
Level 4: The vehicle performs all safety-critical functions for the entire trip, with the driver not expected to control the vehicle at any time. As this vehicle would control all functions from start to stop, including all parking functions, it could include unoccupied cars.
Click to expand...


I don't want to go on forever, I just want to highlight the stark progress being made. Some common questions people have are being answered - like what about driving in snow? Some testing has already happened, and more is starting this winter - seems positive so far. One question I still have is, will there be some sort of new car-upgrading service that will turn old cars into autonomous cars, or will all autonomous cars have to be newly manufactured?
 
rokkerkory

rokkerkory

Member
They will never take away my enjoyment for driving cars myself. I can see his for the handicapped or disabled however.

But if I cannot have control of my own car then forget it.
 
M

MayMay

Banned
Ill have a hard time trusting that stuff. I already hate if someone else that isn't me is driving the car - so trusting the computer wouldn't be easy even though it'd technically be safer.

I gotta control the car myself to make me feel safe.. Lol.
 
K

Kinitari

Black Canada Mafia
DECK'ARD said:
All this has happened a lot faster than I thought it would, it's a massive game-changer.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think people have been a bit jaded when it comes to cool society changing tech actually moving forward at a reasonable pace - I think enough signs are out there now though that have people feeling more confident about self driving vehicles being on all roads in just half a decade.
 
G

GoldenEye 007

Member
Well as long as my car can be retrofitted for it for little to no cost. Because fuck that as I just bought one. I plan on having it for at least 10 years.
 
M

methodman

Banned
GoldenEye 007 said:
Well as long as my car can be retrofitted for it for little to no cost. Because fuck that as I just bought one. I plan on having it for at least 10 years.
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This is why I leased last year for 3 years. In 2018, I can trade my 2015 Ford Fusion hybrid electric in and get whatever the best electric / closest to autonomous vehicle available.
 
D

daveo42

Banned
Sounds good to me as long as they work as intended. 2020 is about the time I'll need to get a new car anyway. I'll keep my current one this time around though so I can still have a little fun.

I wonder how Geohot's car is coming along after that article about his system last month.
 
C

ClosingADoor

Member
Sounds very quick. Hope they don't push it out too soon, since only an accident or two will set back regulation and trust in this a whole lot.
 
K

Kinitari

Black Canada Mafia
ClosingADoor said:
Sounds very quick. Hope they don't push it out too soon, since only an accident or two will set back regulation and trust in this a whole lot.
Click to expand...

I know Google has talked a -loooot- about safety, probably for this very reason. I imagine federal governments will start drafting standardized tests for self driving systems, and they'll have to go through the ringer before they're street legal.

I think what will happen is someone will make the 'best' system, and car companies will license it out while still working on their own, around 2020. Eventually by 2025, you'll probably see a diverse offering of different autonomous systems.
 
D

Despera

Banned
The one being driven by these autonomous vehicles should still be capable of responding if things go awry. It would be an amazing solution for the disabled and elderly, but they should play it safe the first few phases at least.
 
S

Sulik2

Member
Four years to replace tens of millions of transportation jobs that are about to disappear. This should be a major concern for the global economy. No one is going to do a thing about it though. Planning ahead isn't humanity's strong suit.
 
C

CitizenVectron

Member
*In sunny conditions in states without lots of rain or any snow, and also clear road markings.

Autonomous driving is not coming to the northern states in winter, or Canada, any time soon. Often enough a 2-lane road turns into 1-lane for the winter once snow falls due to snow piles along the side, and then you have ruts in the snow/ice which stay all winter.
 
H

How About No

Member
I'm still baffled at how this will work with the infrastructure we currently have. And I'm concerned with how this will work with the millions of manual vehicles still on the roadways.
 
D

DECK'ARD

The Amiga Brotherhood
Despera said:
The one being driven by these autonomous vehicles should still be capable of responding if things go awry. It would be an amazing solution for the disabled and elderly, but they should play it safe the first few phases at least.
Click to expand...

I agree with Google's argument that the time needed for someone to take over and respond is already too late, and possibly more dangerous. Better to develop the best system all-round than rely on that as a fallback.
 
G

GoldenEye 007

Member
methodman said:
This is why I leased last year for 3 years. In 2018, I can trade my 2015 Ford Fusion hybrid electric in and get whatever the best electric / closest to autonomous vehicle available.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I had a 2004 Hyundai with over 100 miles and at the time a 50 mile commute to work one way. It was a matter of time and I just decided to act before something went wrong with it. Those leasing fees would have murdered me given how much I drove. So financing made much more sense for me.

I also heard leasing is more of a benefit for higher end/expensive vehicles. I couldn't imagine leasing a Mazda 3, which is what I bought.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
My current car is pretty much dying and I need to get a new one, so hopefully this is the last human-driven car I'll have to buy.
 
K

Kinitari

Black Canada Mafia
TheGreatPotato said:
*In sunny conditions in states without lots of rain or any snow, and also clear road markings.

Autonomous driving is not coming to the northern states in winter, or Canada, any time soon. Often enough a 2-lane road turns into 1-lane for the winter once snow falls due to snow piles along the side, and then you have ruts in the snow/ice which stay all winter.
Click to expand...

Read up on some recent advances - testing in snow is going forward, and has shown success! You can even see an example video from NVidia's CES presentation. Ford is starting to test on snow roads, Google has already started - it's happening. They want it to work -better- than people in even the worst conditions.
 
P

PeskyToaster

Member
Will it work in this though?

tumblr_nit5ahFHAF1s1vn29o1_500.jpg
Click to expand...

Because that is what I need.

I'll add this as well. Autonomous cars are like #1 on my list of possible future things that I could obtain during my lifetime. Can't wait.
 
A

AstroNut325

Member
And people were saying we wouldn't be seeing this for another 3-4 decades just last year on GAF. I still think by 2020 there will be a lot of L4 autonomous cars on the road.
 
-COOLIO-

-COOLIO-

The Everyman
TheGreatPotato said:
*In sunny conditions in states without lots of rain or any snow, and also clear road markings.

Autonomous driving is not coming to the northern states in winter, or Canada, any time soon. Often enough a 2-lane road turns into 1-lane for the winter once snow falls due to snow piles along the side, and then you have ruts in the snow/ice which stay all winter.
Click to expand...
They're still worth having for the other 8 months of the year.
 
D

daveo42

Banned
PeskyToaster said:
Will it work in this though?

Because that is what I need.
Click to expand...

I would assume so if they want to pass Level 4 tests in all conditions.

ClosingADoor said:
Sounds very quick. Hope they don't push it out too soon, since only an accident or two will set back regulation and trust in this a whole lot.
Click to expand...

My big worry is that the fail safes put into the car at first will give driverless cars a bad rap due to operator error from intervening when it isn't necessary.
 
A

Alexlf

Member
TheGreatPotato said:
*In sunny conditions in states without lots of rain or any snow, and also clear road markings.

Autonomous driving is not coming to the northern states in winter, or Canada, any time soon. Often enough a 2-lane road turns into 1-lane for the winter once snow falls due to snow piles along the side, and then you have ruts in the snow/ice which stay all winter.
Click to expand...

You assume these challenges aren't being considered, which I can assure you they are. Look at it this way: Humans navigate their vehicles almost entirely by 2 front facing cameras with huge blind spots that are easily obscured and only pick up a tiny amount of the light spectrum. We can handle those conditions just fine, so why not a computer with constant 360 degree vision crossing multiple spectrums (in addition to a plethora of other detectors)?
 
E

evilromero

Member
I'm so ready for this. Morning commutes, long trips to the vet. I can just relax, listen to music and read a book. Sounds like paradise.
 
G

Gallbaro

Banned
Until individual ownership goes away, this is going to increase Vehicle Miles Traveled and congestion. A lot of zero passenger trips.

As in people going to work and sending their car back home, etc...
 
S

Sulik2

Member
How About No said:
I'm still baffled at how this will work with the infrastructure we currently have. And I'm concerned with how this will work with the millions of manual vehicles still on the roadways.
Click to expand...

It will finally be time to progress with technology and stop making cars with manual transmission.
 
DOWN

DOWN

Banned
We're all screaming YAAASSSSS inside right? I bet it won't be that soon that they are ready tbh but by 2022 maybe
 
J

John Kowalski

Banned
I hope i can drive my own cars until i become physically incapable of doing it. I'm really not looking forward to having to deal with robot cars on the road.
 
N

Neo C.

Member
Sulik2 said:
Four years to replace tens of millions of transportation jobs that are about to disappear. This should be a major concern for the global economy. No one is going to do a thing about it though. Planning ahead isn't humanity's strong suit.
Click to expand...

They won't disappear immediately, but rather downgraded. Long distance bus drivers are already responsible for cleaning the car, they'll probably be mainly assistants for disabled people and jack-of-all-trades (cleaning, selling drinks, entertainment manager etc.)
 
A

Angelus Errare

Banned
2020 is when it began
2020 is where it shall end
First cars then all
It marks mankind's fall
Our hubris oh so great
Our demise oh so quaint.
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Gallbaro said:
Until individual ownership goes away, this is going to increase Vehicle Miles Traveled and congestion. A lot of zero passenger trips.

As in people going to work and sending their car back home, etc...
Click to expand...

why would you do that? You'd drive to work and then the car would just go and park itself somewhere convenient (which may not be on-site due to expensive real estate - maybe a 5-10 minute drive away)

But yes, this will probably go hand in hand with transitioning away from ownership to a model more like Uber but without the driver. And of course trucks etc. Are there any articles showing research for self-driving trucks? You'd think there would be good money to be made from trucks that don't need rest stops every X hours

I'm curious that so many car companies are jumping in - won't it eventually lead to a massive reduction in the number of car sales? if we aren't all buying a car each, but simply buying access to cars, then you don't need as many on the road.
 
DOWN

DOWN

Banned
TheGreatPotato said:
*In sunny conditions in states without lots of rain or any snow, and also clear road markings.

Autonomous driving is not coming to the northern states in winter, or Canada, any time soon. Often enough a 2-lane road turns into 1-lane for the winter once snow falls due to snow piles along the side, and then you have ruts in the snow/ice which stay all winter.
Click to expand...
You act like they can't teach it to go around correctly, consider other cars and narrowing difficult terrain. They are doing great with this stuff. It's the beautiful extreme of video game AI where they teach it how to find a safe path if there is one.

PeskyToaster said:
Will it work in this though?



Because that is what I need.

I'll add this as well. Autonomous cars are like #1 on my list of possible future things that I could obtain during my lifetime. Can't wait.
Click to expand...
It will work even better than your eyes
 
K

Kinitari

Black Canada Mafia
mrklaw said:
why would you do that? You'd drive to work and then the car would just go and park itself somewhere convenient (which may not be on-site due to expensive real estate - maybe a 5-10 minute drive away)

But yes, this will probably go hand in hand with transitioning away from ownership to a model more like Uber but without the driver. And of course trucks etc. Are there any articles showing research for self-driving trucks? You'd think there would be good money to be made from trucks that don't need rest stops every X hours
Click to expand...

https://medium.com/basic-income/sel...-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961#.vx6kl1yxa

Pretty good read.

I'm curious that so many car companies are jumping in - won't it eventually lead to a massive reduction in the number of car sales? if we aren't all buying a car each, but simply buying access to cars, then you don't need as many on the road.
Click to expand...

Imagine you're a car company with a bit of forethought, thinking of this - what is the game plan? If you read what Ford has been saying about this transition, they're basically saying "cars as a service are going to be THE thing, and we want to be the company that is making all these specialized cars, first".

Basically - if you're not first, you're fucked because the market may eventually shrink, and only the cars with the best systems are going to be purchased.
 
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