Your estimates are way off.
The 3 billion dollars was only for 2020, 2021 was way bigger with Black ops cold war and Vanguard, but let's continue with the figure. As for mobile, here is monthly revenue of CoD mobile from activision and statista. for 2021, CoD mobile would probably generate 380 million usd revenue
In 2021 it's known that Vanguard underperformed vs previous CoD games. In the PS Blog PSN rankings (a majority of PS sales are digital, not physial) It didn't get the top 1 spot for USA/CA or EU, in PS4 or PS5 for December or 2021. As an example in 2020 CoD got top 1 in 3 of these 4 rankings (missed in PS4 EU) and got top 1 in December 2019 too.
Back in May Activision announced that CoD Mobile achieved 500M downloads and $1B in revenue in a year and a half:
As part of its financial filings, Activision Blizzard has announced that Call of Duty: Mobile has been downloaded 500 million times, and generated over $1 billion in revenue. In total, the C...
www.pocketgamer.biz
And it continues growing. Remember that before CoD Mobile and Warzone CoD was more like this:
SuperData has released their full review of the gaming industry results from 2018 and revealed how much revenue some of the most popular games made in
charlieintel.com
Now I think I don't understand is when activision reports a game revenue, does it include the 30% for Sony? or not?
It depend what are they announced. When they announced what a game has generated in general, it includes both revenue shares. If they announce the revenue it generated for Activision (as in a fiscal report) then they don't include the platform holder revenue share.
You number also ignores indirect revenue to Sony for gamers who are willing to pay for PS plus to play CoD or who prefer to invest in network subscription where they prefer to play multiplayer games.
Ok let's say that instead of generating directly around $1% of the yearly revenue that Sony earns in the PS game division revenue every year with all the CoD content (which would include CoD games included in PS Plus or Now if it would be the case), they indirectly generate more like requiring PS Plus for the online, and that since these users buy an average of over 14 games per console a portion of these paid for that year fees would be because of CoD. Let's say that instead of up to around $1% is up to $1.1%, or even $1.5% if you want, or even 2%. It' still a tiny portion of their PS game division yearly revenue.
How money Sony customer would stop paying for PS plus because they can't play yearly CoD? 1 million? 2? 5? at 30 usd a year? (cheapest offer I know of)
On average PS players buy over 14 games for console and CoD only generates around 1% of their revenue, and each yearly CoD game (which sales around 20-30M total in all 3 platforms) is bought by around 10% of their PS active userbase. I estimated that around half of these are on PS, so each game would sell around 10-15M copies on PS.
If CoD would leave PS, according toActivision, Microsoft and Spencer which wouldn't, I estimate that a majority of these 10-15M users would continue on PS (so paying Plus) because there are more games on PS they like to play, maybe don't care to play other games instead or aren't big fans of CoD and simply bought it via Sony's marketing deal ads (special featuring in the store/PS event/PS youtube channel/PS tv ad/PS blog etc) so if CoD would leave it would get replaced by some other games he may like and buy in the future. The players who would remain in PS buying Plus if CoD would include a big majority of those who also have an Xbox or PC gaming in addition to a PS, so they would play CoD elsewhere but would continue playing other games on PS. So I estimate that under 3-5M (a third of these CoD PS players who buy a yearly CoD) would leave.
Let's be very generous say 5M leave for CoD (not the case at all) and that ALL of them pay $50/year for Plus (not the case at all) instead because don't live in countries where it's cheaper/they didn't use any discount or promotion/they weren't using free Plus promotions/didn't buy it dirt cheap in cd key stores (not the case at all), and that Sony doesn't pay any taxes for PSN, and that doesn't have transactions costs, and that doesn't have refunds or chargebacks. So being totally unrealistically generous, that would bee $250M, 1% of their Game Division yearly revenue. Being more realistic pretty likely would be way under half of that. To put $250M PS Plus yearly revenue in context, they make almost $1B/quarter in their game division's 'network services' (Plus+Now).
Sony understood that! that is why they maded sure to have these exclusive marketing and deals with activision. why pay money for it if it was not going to matter at the end?
Sony pays marketing deals to dozens of 3rd party games released every year. Multiple games released per month. They market their console by mostly showcasing its multi and exclusive games, because the revenue they get from games, specially 3rd party games. Sales split between thousands of games. I assume focused their marketing deals on those games they estimated would generate more revenue, so obviously CoD was one of their priority every year.
But at the same time, since they generate $25B/year, the revenue of each individual game, even the top ones, represents a very small part of it since the top selling games (with I assume the exceptions of F2P, Minecraft and GTAV) for their console sold maybe around 15M copies each on PS4 while all games combined sold over 1700M games (so again, under a 1% of the total).
Obviously Sony would prefer to keep CoD or any other big seller on PS (and their publisher too) but if one of them leave Sony won't go bankrupt or something like that. They will simply spend their marketing deals with someone else, their division will continue growing and they won't barely lose marketshare or market volume if that happens.
But again, these are only assumptions because MS still has to release a single Xbox exclusive game from the big seller (on PS) IPs they purchased from Mojang, Zenimax or ABK and they said they plan to do the same with ABK and to continue supporting these -already existing on non-MS consoles- big communities on these consoles, Spencer specifically mentioned that want to keep CoD on PS and MS+ABK mentioned Miinecraft as example of this, plus even the top 1 Sony haters, liers and FUD spreaders that are Bloomberg mentiioned that at least the next 3 CoD games would be on PS.