Explosive Zombie
Banned
It's also easier to expect 5-6 million copies for such a long, storied franchise that is releasing on every platform.
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NPD July 2020, Ghost of Tsushima #1, Call of Duty: MW #2, Paper Mario #3
- Thread starter Kenji Ramon
- Start date
It's also easier to expect 5-6 million copies for such a long, storied franchise that is releasing on every platform.
Hezekiah
Banned
Where is this evidence of staggering escalation of development costs, any hard figures?
Shawn Layden says the typical AAA game costs $80 - $150m in development costs. Maybe tens of millions on top in marketing costs.
I don't see how $600m in revenue isnt enough to generate significant profits. This isn't Red Dead Redemption 2.
Fake
Member
But was TLOUS2 the most expensive first party game from Sony to make? Lets not forget the COVID problems and some employers whining about not being paying/extra while doing homework at ND.
We can't be sure until ND or Sony give us the real dev cost, but is kinda unlikely they will.
Hezekiah
Banned
Maybe it was their most expensive game. Not anywhere near ~$600m though.
Fake
Member
IDK, we can only work with what they gave us. Is like Sony saying 'no ND employers leaked the game'. Well, nobody did an investigation, so we are trusting Sony that this is actually true.
Hezekiah
Banned
I can answer it for you - they're already in profit. As would virtually any publisher be at this point.
TheSadRanger
Banned
Rean no Kiseki
Banned
TheSadRanger
Banned
Give it some more time, all the normies who I work with that don't pay attention to video game news who were fans of the first hated the game and what they did with Joel.
Normies got tricked basically.
Normies got tricked basically.
CitizenX
Banned
Yea anytime someone bragging about 2-3 million, there is CoD months after release, sometimes years, still selling like hotcakes. Funny everytime on a CoD release all you see is "Im not buying it", "I havent played it for years". I actually havent touched MP in a decade but i always buy the game when on a deep sale for the Sp campaign. At least they try to do one not a lot of FPS AAA campaigns anymore.
Explosive Zombie
Banned
holy fuck i can't open this thread any more because 2 different videos of Joel flamethrowering Jerry play at once
Unknown?
Member
That's why COD is more impressive than GTA5 imo. I doubt GTA could do 20M every year if it released a new game once a year.
ZZZZ
Member
Boy that's gonna take a while.Wonder what the excuses will be if/when Sony announces 10 million sold
Scotty W
Member
Stop whining about Paper Mario. Mario RPG is the important one.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
MLB The Show is beast! Expect it to move up the list next year.
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jimbojim
Banned
Someone leaked numbers on REE
Switch up +35%, X1 down -84%, PS4 down -19%
www.resetera.com
For raw numbers, 2019 was: Switch 252k, PS4 185k, XB1 109k. So Switch is +88k, PS4 - 35k and XB1 -82k YoY.
So :
Switch 340k
PS4 150k
XB1 17k
Switch up +35%, X1 down -84%, PS4 down -19%
NPD July 2020 - Ghost of Tsushima #1 - CoD MW #2 - Paper Mario #3 Sales
So they removed those from the list completely? I still don't understand it.
www.resetera.com
For raw numbers, 2019 was: Switch 252k, PS4 185k, XB1 109k. So Switch is +88k, PS4 - 35k and XB1 -82k YoY.
So :
Switch 340k
PS4 150k
XB1 17k
H-I-M
Member
CrysisFreak
Banned
10% Platinum trophy rate in GO(A)T.
Well deserved, great game.
Well deserved, great game.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Someone leaked numbers on REE
Switch up +35%, X1 down -84%, PS4 down -19%
NPD July 2020 - Ghost of Tsushima #1 - CoD MW #2 - Paper Mario #3 Sales
So they removed those from the list completely? I still don't understand it.
For raw numbers, 2019 was: Switch 252k, PS4 185k, XB1 109k. So Switch is +88k, PS4 - 35k and XB1 -82k YoY.
So :
Switch 340k
PS4 150k
XB1 17k
OMG!!!! How is it possible for MS to only sell 17,000 consoles in America in a summer month?
mejin
Member
Someone leaked numbers on REE
Switch up +35%, X1 down -84%, PS4 down -19%
NPD July 2020 - Ghost of Tsushima #1 - CoD MW #2 - Paper Mario #3 Sales
So they removed those from the list completely? I still don't understand it.
For raw numbers, 2019 was: Switch 252k, PS4 185k, XB1 109k. So Switch is +88k, PS4 - 35k and XB1 -82k YoY.
So :
Switch 340k
PS4 150k
XB1 17k
Fake
Member
PR is the key my friend and lets be honest I never saw a PR doing an amazing job like this to downplay they our product.
nowhat
Member
It's a great game? My WiiU ended up being pretty much a dedicated Mario Kart machine. Zero regrets.
Amiga
Member
A company projects profits from products, they announce these to stock holders. when the balance gets hit the next time they release financials they will have to explain why a product under-performed.
Thirty7ven
Banned
Clearing stock most likely, transitioning to Series S and X.
But the launch is in November so.... yeah, the X1 is ending on a worse note than it started with. Which is incredible in itself, and makes you wonder how in the hell any xbox gamer has faith in MS.
manfestival
Member
I remember when NPD used to give us hard numbers. Those were the days. NPD is truly a shadow of its former self.
ReBurn
Gold Member
NPD hasn't been good in like a decade. I don't know why we bother. I guess speculating is fun.
Le Big Mac
Member
Does it not stand to reason that investors in Sony have similar if not higher projections? In fairness, unlike SE, Sony's products are more diversified and the average investor is more likely to be interested in their more profitable divisions (sensors).
My point came across poorly. Sales of 6 mil is great no matter which way it's observed, my point was that whilst it's not going to stop there - I assume that their internal expectation is that the sales probably should be higher given the costs.
I remember someone used a Shawn layden quote earlier and I remembered that he also said that tripA development is unsustainable - TLoU2 is more divisive of a game that just isn't going to carry with word of mouth. Hence why I think it probably won't be as successful as they expected.
Amiga
Member
I'm actually agreeing with you. I was trying to explain your point.
Sony project ahead to investors what the investment on TLOU2 would return. that projection would take into account the growth of the fan-base based on the sales of TLOU1, the previous high esteem for ND as superstar developers, PlayStation owners preference for single player games and the current size of the market.
so it's not about breaking even or making a profit. if those projections are not met Sony would need to explain to investors why they missed the target. and they could be pushed to make up the loss by defunding other projects. the loss could be $100-$200 million in one year. that's the budget for a big AAA game.
Bioshock Infinite sold 11 million as of 2015. even though it probably returned double the investment made it was still considered a failure that led to the downsizing of the studio.
DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
A big bulk of their sales after the first months of sales are going to come from the multiplayer. This is assuming that 1) They even release it and 2) it's popular as the first.
They wanted to make a divisive game so they likely took into consideration how the sales may be impacted.
EdGalTBR
Banned
Switch 2017 x 2018 x 2019 x 2020
Code:
+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|Month| 2017| 2018| 2019| 2020|
+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| JAN | | 270k| 284k| 270k|
| FEB | | 279k| 363k| 350k|
| MAR | 906k| 308k| 385k|1000k|
| APR | 281k| 171k| 225k| 808k|
| MAY | 165k| 166k| 215k| 529k|
| JUN | 216k| 323k| 329k| 513k|
| JUL | 222k| 263k| 252k| 340k|
| AUG | 205k| 203k| 241k| 504k|
| SEP | 309k| 259k| 432k| |
| OCT | 280k| 255k| 309k| |
| NOV | 775k|1356k|1428k| |
| DEC |1500k|1770k|2036k| |
+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| TOT |4859k|5623k|6500k|4314k|
+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
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Justin9mm
Member
Considering we know CP2077 is Nov 19th release and we pretty much know both next gen consoles should be out around same time if not before, rumour for PS5 is Nov 20th and CDPR already said they have a supported PS5 version which will be free upgrade, If you are buying PS5 Day 1, I would highly recommend to wait to play that PS5 version whenever the patch drops. I would assume it should be around the same time or not very long after.
If it was the original September release I would not have waited but I'm so glad they delayed until late November.
IbizaPocholo
NeoGAFs Kent Brockman
Ghost of Tsushima sold 1.9m digital units in July
Ghost of Tsushima hit a number of milestones in its launch month: it sold 2.4 million copies in three days, was the bes…
www.gamesindustry.biz
EDMIX
Member
errrr not really man. I think you seem to want it to seem as if "the drop off has been tremendous" when this is typically normal with single player titles like this. Selling something wild like 7 million units in a month (that we know of mind you) isn't normal. Its not something to really be trying to spin as this doom and gloom when very little evidence really points to that, this game is currently the fastest selling Playstation game in history, based on this so called "tremendous" drop, it shouldn't even fucking be in July's NPD top 10, yet....its number 4.
What other games have released were the "drop off has been tremendous" ?
Fallout 4 drops 80% as they "tumble" to Battlefront 1 (lets just ignore it moved record units and is the best selling Fallout title in history)
UK: Star Wars Battlefront has record launch, Fallout 4 sales drop 80%
Fallout 4 sales tumble as Battlefront has best Star Wars launch to date. Star Wars Battlefront had the best ever launch for a Star Wars game in the UK to date. It’s the fourth highest launch of the…
www.gamesca.com
Uncharted 4 drops 78% well R.IP to that game (lets just ignore it moves 15 million units)
https://www.gamesradar.com/uncharted-4-sells-27-million-copies-in-its-first-week/
GTAV 83% drop as it "unfortunately plummeted 83 percent" and as Fifa "knocks GTAV OFF ITS HIGH HORSE" Looks like death to GTA here folks. /s
https://www.neoseeker.com/news/23895-chart-track-fifa-14-knocks-gta-v-off-its-high-horse-in-uk/
Sir....when one of the best selling games of all time has such a drop and then clearly goes on to keep selling, maybe, just maybe we shouldn't put too much stock in % dropped as that doesn't really tell you whats going to happen to a game in terms of overall sales.
Why Uncharted 4's 78% sales drop isn't as troubling as it sounds
Here's how it compares to other major releases.
www.videogamer.com
I remember when folks tried making a "tremendous" deal about Battlefront 2015 dropping in sales thinking they could desperately hold on to the gloom wishes......the game went on to become the best selling Star Wars game in history. So much for that "tremendous" drop.
Reindeer
Member
Never said it didn't sell well, but the drop off is huge when you consider that this is the biggest game Sony released this gen. Context is needed here. I also pointed out that the game was riding on the hype of the original and was always likely to sell very well, but the drop off has been massive if you look how poorly it fares compared to other Sony exclusives when it comes to player retention. People are already forgetting about it and hardly anyone is talking about it, something completely different to the original that was on everyone's lips for a while after release.
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DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
People are still talking about it. lol.
A game like Uncharted 4 was popular in the UK, but dropped after the first month in the US. It was also carried by massive bundles. Only people who are saying the sales are poor are haters while people who actually report sales stay otherwise.
The game was built to be divisive and it wasn't made to make everyone happy. The title (which includes MP) will likely be their most successful title this gen.
Reindeer
Member
Never said the sales are poor smh, I said the game's sales are not that impressive for the biggest game Sony ever released. Everyone expected the game to sell well anyway, but nobody was expecting it have one of the worst player retention rates among Sony exclusives this gen. The game would have likely had much longer legs on retail if it wasn't so divisive.
Eliciel
Member
Maybe let's take a considerate look at maths for a moment:
If a game that sells 4m first month and doesn't drop by 80%, but just by 20% it would mean that it sells >7M after 2 months vs. ~5M after 2 months.
Can we please first try to align on what makes more sense to you, individually? -
That a game sells:
>7 after 2
>10 after 3
and >11 after 6++months?
or
>5 after 2,
>5.5 after 3
and >7-8 after 6++ monhts?
I sometimes don't understand what people do expect here.
Even "system sellers" don't "just" sell 10-20m units over night...it takes months and years to even come close to these numbers for a regular title. GTA 5 is just something else....and Nintendo Switch games are something else as well, but that is also due to the reason that basically any person on planet earth is playing Nintendo Switch. this is from 6-99 console...lol
If a game that sells 4m first month and doesn't drop by 80%, but just by 20% it would mean that it sells >7M after 2 months vs. ~5M after 2 months.
Can we please first try to align on what makes more sense to you, individually? -
That a game sells:
>7 after 2
>10 after 3
and >11 after 6++months?
or
>5 after 2,
>5.5 after 3
and >7-8 after 6++ monhts?
I sometimes don't understand what people do expect here.
Even "system sellers" don't "just" sell 10-20m units over night...it takes months and years to even come close to these numbers for a regular title. GTA 5 is just something else....and Nintendo Switch games are something else as well, but that is also due to the reason that basically any person on planet earth is playing Nintendo Switch. this is from 6-99 console...lol
DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
Yes, even compared to other Sony exclusives, its not.
Game is one of the most completed titles of Sony's biggest games out there.
Reindeer
Member
Has one of the worst player retention rates.
DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
You mentioned this several times after I just posted the number. Want to provide data? You have a strange habit of just repeating stuff and just hope it sticks.
Reindeer
Member
Dude, there was a whole thread about it here on GAF, thought you would have seen it. Just search for it. No need to make baseless accusations.
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DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
Already did. Want to tell me how it has a very high completion rate but somehow the worst retention rate?
Reindeer
Member
No you didn't.
TLOU2's player count after 45 days vs other Sony games in the same timeframe
TLOU2 7 days - 4.04M 45 days - 5.83M = +1.79M new players Spider-Man 7 days - 4.33M 45 days - 7.86M = +3.53M new players GOW 7 days - 3.38M 45 days - 6.23M = +2.85M new players It doesn't surprise me if Ghost Of Tsushima will overtake TLOU2 player count and sales at the end with that harsh...
DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
No you didn't.
TLOU2's player count after 45 days vs other Sony games in the same timeframe
TLOU2 7 days - 4.04M 45 days - 5.83M = +1.79M new players Spider-Man 7 days - 4.33M 45 days - 7.86M = +3.53M new players GOW 7 days - 3.38M 45 days - 6.23M = +2.85M new players It doesn't surprise me if Ghost Of Tsushima will overtake TLOU2 player count and sales at the end with that harsh...www.neogaf.com
I posted in the thread. I was in that conversation. lol
Why did you ignore my question?
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Reindeer
Member
You seem like this game's fanboy, going to any length to validate your opinion.
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DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
And that's your response after I asked for you to explain why the trophy numbers were that high?
Looks like you just repeat what others tell you. Doesn't surprise me and that's exactly what I expected. If you're going to come on TLOU thread just hating on the game, at least research things for yourself.
Reindeer
Member
Big corporations lie all the time lol. That trophy data can easily be manipulated and lied about by Sony to limit damage control for the game, but you believe what you wanna believe.
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DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
Now you're accusing them of manipulating stats.
This was fun. I cant believe you actually went there, but you did.
Yes, you said "can" but you know that's what you believe.. I'm done. lol
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Reindeer
Member
Oh you didn't know big companies lie all the time? Ah shame, how naive of you.