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[Duchess]

Arcade gaming went the way of the dodo cause console/PC gaming overtook what most arcade games could. That all started with the Dreamcast showing the arcade experience could be replicated in the home.

It started sooner than that. I knew a guy who ran an arcade back in the 80s / 90s. I had noticed the number of patrons dwindling and he told me that the PlayStation was killing them. Why keep shoving 50p into Tekken constantly, when you can get around your mate's house and play it for free on Sony's little grey box.

 

[Topher]

Article from yesterday, Xbox Subs "Approximately 20 million"- Jeff Grubb

https://venturebeat.com/2021/09/28/xbox-is-lowering-the-price-of-game-pass-in-chile-hong-kong-and-israel/amp/?__twitter_impression=true "In the United States, Xbox Game Pass Ultimate remains $15 per month. Game Pass is Microsoft’s key strategy for gaming moving forward, but it is far from...

www.neogaf.com

Dabaus from the future? Vindicated.


funny how Banjo64 was quick to comment before but nowhere to be found now

That 30 million sub thread was a bit over the top. Common sense tells us we would have know of Game Pass progress will before it got to 30 million when we had already heard official reports of 10, 15, and 18 million subscribers. That and the silly narrative that somehow Strauss Zelnick knows internal confidential Xbox data was a bit absurd especially considering Zelnick was clearly asking a question in which he didn't know the answer to.

 

[Dabaus]

Article from yesterday, Xbox Subs "Approximately 20 million"- Jeff Grubb

https://venturebeat.com/2021/09/28/xbox-is-lowering-the-price-of-game-pass-in-chile-hong-kong-and-israel/amp/?__twitter_impression=true "In the United States, Xbox Game Pass Ultimate remains $15 per month. Game Pass is Microsoft’s key strategy for gaming moving forward, but it is far from...

www.neogaf.com

Dabaus from the future? Vindicated.


funny how Banjo64 was quick to comment before but nowhere to be found now

Thank you for pointing that out.

 

[XXL]

Thank you for pointing that out.

Why in the hell was that thread locked? That seems strange considering the amount of "Jeff Grubb says" threads that are on here.

 

[Topher]

Why in the hell was that thread locked? That seems strange considering the amount of "Jeff Grubb says" threads that are on here.

Probably to prevent a tsunami of "I told you so" posts.

 

[xiseerht]

These are fun headlines. You can report it as bad news or good news depending on how you want to type it out. Here are the facts. MS had a goal of 48% growth. And they, in fact missed that. They ONLY had a growth of 37% . Now is Microsoft really going to complain about that.... NO. Gamepass is doing just fine. Microsoft stock is up 2.25% this week. And 3.46 for the month. And Microsoft is fully all in on the Xbox brand. But to be honest....Sony , Nintendo , Apple Arcade , PC gaming and Xbox are all eating good right now. No one is doing bad at all.

 

[Lognor]

That 30 million sub thread was a bit over the top. Common sense tells us we would have know of Game Pass progress will before it got to 30 million when we had already heard official reports of 10, 15, and 18 million subscribers. That and the silly narrative that somehow Strauss Zelnick knows internal confidential Xbox data was a bit absurd especially considering Zelnick was clearly asking a question in which he didn't know the answer to.

Yesh, 30m was a bold claim. But I don't think it was completely unreasonable that the CEO of Take Two wouldn't know the number. If MS approached them to put their games on Game Pass isn't it a valid question of how many subscribers to see if the games will have the reach T2 would want? Granted, T2 would need to sign an NDA but confidential information like that can be shared. I sign NDAs for my job fairly frequently.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

These are fun headlines. You can report it as bad news or good news depending on how you want to type it out. Here are the facts. MS had a goal of 48% growth. And they, in fact missed that. They ONLY had a growth of 37% . Now is Microsoft really going to complain about that.... NO. Gamepass is doing just fine. Microsoft stock is up 2.25% this week. And 3.46 for the month. And Microsoft is fully all in on the Xbox brand. But to be honest....Sony , Nintendo , Apple Arcade , PC gaming and Xbox are all eating good right now. No one is doing bad at all.

The funny thing is, this was a two-year forecast. They wanted to grow 152% in two years. They grew 155%. This means that Gamepass is doomed, or something.

 

[Jaysen]

I don’t doubt it. Their biggest game was delayed a year, and almost a year since release, they still can’t get Series X consoles onto shelves.

 

[XXL]

Probably to prevent a tsunami of "I told you so" posts.

But they would have been 100% accurate. Again, everything Jeff Grubb says get a thread on here.

 

[TheGodfather07]

Right now, gamepass is mostly being used by the already existing xbox audience. They will find it difficult to expand beyond that limit without the real big games that casuals play. Gamepass can only do so much. You need exciting content and that is going to take a long time for Microsoft as they pretty much only just started on building their own first party.

 

[GhostOfTsu]

Article from yesterday, Xbox Subs "Approximately 20 million"- Jeff Grubb

https://venturebeat.com/2021/09/28/xbox-is-lowering-the-price-of-game-pass-in-chile-hong-kong-and-israel/amp/?__twitter_impression=true "In the United States, Xbox Game Pass Ultimate remains $15 per month. Game Pass is Microsoft’s key strategy for gaming moving forward, but it is far from...

www.neogaf.com

Dabaus from the future? Vindicated.


funny how Banjo64 was quick to comment before but nowhere to be found now

He probably reported the thread also. We all know how sensitive he can be

 

[XXL]

The funny thing is, this was a two-year forecast. They wanted to grow 152% in two years. They grew 155%. This means that Gamepass is doomed, or something.

If this is how you feel then why did you post a laughing emoji at Jeff Grubb saying it was at 20M subs...6 months ago......

Article from yesterday, Xbox Subs "Approximately 20 million"- Jeff Grubb

https://venturebeat.com/2021/09/28/xbox-is-lowering-the-price-of-game-pass-in-chile-hong-kong-and-israel/amp/?__twitter_impression=true "In the United States, Xbox Game Pass Ultimate remains $15 per month. Game Pass is Microsoft’s key strategy for gaming moving forward, but it is far from...

www.neogaf.com

 

[Topher]

Yesh, 30m was a bold claim. But I don't think it was completely unreasonable that the CEO of Take Two wouldn't know the number. If MS approached them to put their games on Game Pass isn't it a valid question of how many subscribers to see if the games will have the reach T2 would want? Granted, T2 would need to sign an NDA but confidential information like that can be shared. I sign NDAs for my job fairly frequently.

But now we are talking about MS sharing non-public internal data with the CEO of another company when this information had only previously been given out in an earnings call to stockholders. We are also talking about data that this specific filing from the OP refers to as information that results in "substantial shareholder value creation". Giving out information like this outside of the earnings call to entice another company to effectively invest into Game Pass would not be viewed very favorably by the SEC, I would think.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

If this is how you feel then why did you post a laughing emoji at Jeff Grubb saying it was at 20M subs...6 months ago......

Article from yesterday, Xbox Subs "Approximately 20 million"- Jeff Grubb

https://venturebeat.com/2021/09/28/xbox-is-lowering-the-price-of-game-pass-in-chile-hong-kong-and-israel/amp/?__twitter_impression=true "In the United States, Xbox Game Pass Ultimate remains $15 per month. Game Pass is Microsoft’s key strategy for gaming moving forward, but it is far from...

www.neogaf.com

This has been the lamest gotcha in the history of gotchas, maybe ever. Dabaus gets a laughing emoji for almost everything, because he's a very entertaining console warrior.

Just deal with the fact that your thread title is wrong. Not your fault though, you copied the title from the article.

 

[XXL]

This has been the lamest gotcha in the history of gotchas, maybe ever. Dabaus gets a laughing emoji for almost everything, because he's a very entertaining console warrior.

Just deal with the fact that your thread title is wrong. Not your fault though, you copied the title from the article.

 

[Chukhopops]

Right now, gamepass is mostly being used by the already existing xbox audience. They will find it difficult to expand beyond that limit without the real big games that casuals play. Gamepass can only do so much. You need exciting content and that is going to take a long time for Microsoft as they pretty much only just started on building their own first party.

Is there any source or shred of evidence for literally any of those claims? All we know is GP is getting around 450k new subs per month but nobody (except MS itself) knows if it comes from Cloud gaming or PC or console, from emergent markets or established ones.

If you think you know when there is zero data about it then it’s just your confirmation bias talking.

 

[Banjo64]

He probably reported the thread also. We all know how sensitive he can be

Wow, you really hurt my feelings with that one (and no, I didn’t)

 

[Riky]

How do we know the employee bonus target is anything to do with how Microsoft thought the service would actually grow in reality? In my previous business you had targets that would net you a range of bonuses but some of them were basically unachievable.
I don't think this means what some people are pretending it does.

 

[Lognor]

But now we are talking about MS sharing non-public internal data with the CEO of another company when this information had only previously been given out in an earnings call to stockholders. We are also talking about data that this specific filing from the OP refers to as information that results in "substantial shareholder value creation". Giving out information like this outside of the earnings call to entice another company to effectively invest into Game Pass would not be viewed very favorably by the SEC, I would think.

It really is a moot point because we know it didn't happen, but you seem to not know how NDAs work. I sign NDAs for my job fairly frequently and there is information I receive that I could use to make money. But that would be illegal. Yes, this information can be shared, but the individual cannot use that insider information to make investments. Pretty standard stuff.

 

[Topher]

It really is a moot point because we know it didn't happen, but you seem to not know how NDAs work. I sign NDAs for my job fairly frequently and there is information I receive that I could use to make money. But that would be illegal. Yes, this information can be shared, but the individual cannot use that insider information to make investments. Pretty standard stuff.

I understand how NDAs work perfectly fine. I don't know that they allow for disclosure of information that has been reserved for stockholders though. If you say they allow for such things then sure, I could be wrong about that. As you say, it is moot. Zelnick factually did not know the actual number so the assumption by others that he would was wrong.

 

[DGrayson]

So the 2 year target is met but the revised target from this year is not.

Lets all tone it down beyond that. We can discuss like adults.

 

[kyliethicc]

A missed target reveals Game Pass' growing pains | Opinion

Game Pass is Microsoft's game changer -- or at least, that's the plan. It entered this generation with a grand ambition…

www.gamesindustry.biz

"The subscription service may be beloved for its back catalogue - but even more so than Xbox itself, it desperately needs high-profile new software to drive growth."

...

"There are two ways to look at the undershoot. One is that the predicted 47% figure was already conservative, given that it achieved 86% growth in the previous year, so the numbers Microsoft failed to hit were already reflective of significantly dialled-down expectations; not great. The other way to look at it, however, is that this was naturally going to be a year in which numbers dipped after the artificially high growth caused by pandemic lockdowns, so Microsoft arguably just underestimated the steepness of the curves this unprecedented event would cause. It's consistent in this at least: it underestimated the upside last year, and the downside this year. This more optimistic approach calls for averaging out the performance of the past couple of years, and would lead to an expectation that growth will revert to a comfortable mean in the coming year."

...

"Don't underestimate the struggle Game Pass faces in this regard: Microsoft's first-party game operation is gathering pace, but right here, today, it still isn't capable of holding a candle to rivals Sony and Nintendo, which is going to be a major problem given that with Game Pass and its ambitious growth plans, it has created a challenge for itself that exceeds anything those companies need to accomplish with their first-party publishing efforts."

 

[Chukhopops]

. One is that the predicted 47% figure was already conservative, given that it achieved 86% growth in the previous year, so the numbers Microsoft failed to hit were already reflective of significantly dialled-down expectations;

How can you write for a site named gamesindustry and not have a basic understanding of percentage bases? The 47% increase represents more new subscribers than the 86% increase of previous year.

 

[kyliethicc]

How can you write for a site named gamesindustry and not have a basic understanding of percentage bases? The 47% increase represents more new subscribers than the 86% increase of previous year.

That sentence you quoted is about the growth rate, not the nominal increase of subs. Different things.

 

[reksveks]

A missed target reveals Game Pass' growing pains | Opinion

Game Pass is Microsoft's game changer -- or at least, that's the plan. It entered this generation with a grand ambition…

www.gamesindustry.biz

The thing is, I'm not entirely convinced that a supposed dip in demand after the pandemic really does explain everything about this plummet from 86% to 37% growth -- not least since plenty of other game companies seem to be experiencing an ongoing boom rather than a post-pandemic slide in their revenues.

I think he has a couple of things wrong in this opinion piece but this one stands out as particularly bad.

 

[Chukhopops]

That sentence you quoted is about the growth rate, not the nominal increase of subs. Different things.

I understand that’s the author’s reasoning but then you can’t say « dialed down expectations » if the expectations are that you’ll get even more net new subs than previous year. Looks dishonest to me from a statistical point of view.

 

[KungFucius]

I didn't sub on PC and plan to eventually. There are not enough must play new games on it now. Halo should change that for some. I might still wait for games like Stalker.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

I understand that’s the author’s reasoning but then you can’t say « dialed down expectations » if the expectations are that you’ll get even more net new subs than previous year. Looks dishonest to me from a statistical point of view.

Microsoft should expect 86% growth rate every year, which means seven billion Gamepass subscribers in ten years.

 

[kyliethicc]

I understand that’s the author’s reasoning but then you can’t say « dialed down expectations » if the expectations are that you’ll get even more net new subs than previous year. Looks dishonest to me from a statistical point of view.

They dialed down expectations of the growth rate. That's all the writer said and its true.

 

[mejin]

A missed target reveals Game Pass' growing pains | Opinion

Game Pass is Microsoft's game changer -- or at least, that's the plan. It entered this generation with a grand ambition…

www.gamesindustry.biz

"The subscription service may be beloved for its back catalogue - but even more so than Xbox itself, it desperately needs high-profile new software to drive growth."

...

"There are two ways to look at the undershoot. One is that the predicted 47% figure was already conservative, given that it achieved 86% growth in the previous year, so the numbers Microsoft failed to hit were already reflective of significantly dialled-down expectations; not great. The other way to look at it, however, is that this was naturally going to be a year in which numbers dipped after the artificially high growth caused by pandemic lockdowns, so Microsoft arguably just underestimated the steepness of the curves this unprecedented event would cause. It's consistent in this at least: it underestimated the upside last year, and the downside this year. This more optimistic approach calls for averaging out the performance of the past couple of years, and would lead to an expectation that growth will revert to a comfortable mean in the coming year."

...

"Don't underestimate the struggle Game Pass faces in this regard: Microsoft's first-party game operation is gathering pace, but right here, today, it still isn't capable of holding a candle to rivals Sony and Nintendo, which is going to be a major problem given that with Game Pass and its ambitious growth plans, it has created a challenge for itself that exceeds anything those companies need to accomplish with their first-party publishing efforts."

A good and reasonable piece.

 

[reksveks]

PS plus YoY changes

Ignore the absolute percentage growth cause no one is expecting ps+ to grow like gamepass cause its a more mature product offering.

But have a look at the trend in the last two quarters and more importantly the Q2 numbers as those are the ones that match the Microsoft calendar years. It's go from 22% growth to 5% growth.

Xbox GP numbers (pretty boring cause we have 3 data points)

YoY Revenue growth for fun

The 0% growth on the xbox line in the bottom chart is due to the lack of data. I will update this revenue chart in the next 2/3 weeks.

 

[Papacheeks]

Spoken like a true gamer, like gives a flying ass about that, as long as the service is going and not going to be discontinued then why should YOU worry about some damn sale numbers? I mean if it does then sure by all means worry about it. But I sure wish I had your type of worrying. I wish I was you bro because lol this is funny. Why not go and ask Microsoft and you have to ask nicely okay if not they won't give you the numbers, and tell them Derktron sent you. My uncle works at Microsoft

So we should not have sales threads then if Numbers don't matter? Microsoft's so called change into how they operate XBox division and add it to things like teams/365/exchange as sub/services needs to be shown. Because of these new avenues they are going in they need to show to people that numbers are healthy, and it needs break downs to show people outside of developers what their games are tracking engagement wise and retention wise.

Thats any company with a service either it be entertainment/business. Got to show this if your a publicly traded company. It also helps out information wise for indie developers who want to maybe make a deal and be on their service. It's not like if you've got a game and want to make a deal Microsoft will give you info on another Developers game in how it faired unless behind closed doors and under NDA.
Having some information about how many people played games released during certain times will be crucial for Developers to use as ammo for getting the best deal possible with Microsoft or any other company that has a service/incentive program like Gamepass.

This goes for PS+/PSNOW as well.
These metrics are important to talk about as the industry is slowly consolidating, and if the future for big AAA games gets determined by sub retention numbers that could have negative or positive effects depending on what the landscape looks like, and those metrics look like.

 

[-hadouken]

Not sure I agree with peeps here that Halo will be a “big hitter” that grows GP. Once they’re done with the campaign, players won’t require a sub to access the F2P PVP. I keep an Xbox around for Halo - I won’t even need gold to get my fix going forwards.

 

[sinnergy]

But it doesn’t miss my wallet

 

[StreetsofBeige]

PS plus YoY changes

Ignore the absolute percentage growth cause no one is expecting ps+ to grow like gamepass cause its a more mature product offering.

But have a look at the trend in the last two quarters and more importantly the Q2 numbers as those are the ones that match the Microsoft calendar years. It's go from 22% growth to 5% growth.

Xbox GP numbers (pretty boring cause we have 3 data points)

YoY Revenue growth for fun

The 0% growth on the xbox line in the bottom chart is due to the lack of data. I will update this revenue chart in the next 2/3 weeks.

Amazing thing about GP growth rates too is that it's on a much smaller unit base and the growth in console units is definitely much lower than PS4/PS5 unit sales growth rates, so Sony systems has bigger runway for PS Now sub growth. There was a point in that 2018-2020 kind of range Xbox systems barely sold. Only lately with Series systems have sales perked up again, which GP spikes seem to coincide with.

 

[Havoc2049]

Not sure I agree with peeps here that Halo will be a “big hitter” that grows GP. Once they’re done with the campaign, players won’t require a sub to access the F2P PVP. I keep an Xbox around for Halo - I won’t even need gold to get my fix going forwards.

I'm sure there will be perks for Gamepass Ultimate subscribers when it comes to Halo Infinite. Microsoft won't pass up the opportunity to promote Gamepass through Halo Infinite. Microsoft already has Gamepass Ultimate perks for other 1st and 3rd party GAAS, MMO and multiplayer games on XB and PC.

The campaign in Halo Infinite isn't going to be a one and done static event either, as I'm sure it will be incorporated into the season pass and leveling up. I'm sure Microsoft will have hooks to get the F2P gamers into the complete Halo Infinite game. The campaign will be expanding as well. It will probably be something along the lines of episodic chapters like Spartan Ops from Halo 4 or seasonal expansions like Destiny 2 and Sea of Thieves.

 

[reksveks]

I'm sure there will be perks for Gamepass Ultimate subscribers when it comes to Halo Infinite. Microsoft won't pass up the opportunity to promote Gamepass through Halo Infinite. Microsoft already has Gamepass Ultimate perks for other 1st and 3rd party GAAS, MMO and multiplayer games on XB and PC.

They have already announced there will be perks for the multiplayer section of the game

 

[ZehDon]

Not sure I agree with peeps here that Halo will be a “big hitter” that grows GP. Once they’re done with the campaign, players won’t require a sub to access the F2P PVP. I keep an Xbox around for Halo - I won’t even need gold to get my fix going forwards.

Microsoft’s strategy is to use its first party titles as the bait. Come for cheap access to Halo, stay for the deep list of decent rotating content. Microsoft is sitting around 22m subscribers… and they haven’t actually started releasing their big titles yet. I suspect the subscriber count increases quite a bit over the next year.

 

[GhostOfTsu]

Microsoft should expect 86% growth rate every year, which means seven billion Gamepass subscribers in ten years.

It's not really about the "target". Isn't 20 millions a disappointment after being sure it was way higher for months? I don't know why the conversation is about percentages and targets instead of the actual number. We had tons of articles saying it was higer.

 

[reksveks]

20 millions a disappointment

Disappointment for who?
Consumers without shares? They really shouldn't care that much.
Investors with shares? Probably yes but given that it had no meaningful impact on the share price, I would say no.
Executives with 5% of bonuses based on that metric? Yes but again, I would be more annoyed about the 'underperformance' of Teams

 

[StreetsofBeige]

20 million sounds great to me. How many Xbox One's and Series systems are out there? Maybe 60M combined? And some of these gamers are duplicate users buying One, One X and Series X like me. So I count as 3. Although who knows how many PC gamers there are buy Game Pass. GP came out in 2017.

PS4/PS5 install base is around 130M. Google articles say May 2021 sub count is at 3.2M. So by now maybe it's at 3.5M. Similar to GP, there will be some of these subbers being pure PC gamers, and the true number of gamers on PS will be duplicated with multiple system purchases. Came out in 2014.

 

[Chukhopops]

It's not really about the "target". Isn't 20 millions a disappointment after being sure it was way higher for months? I don't know why the conversation is about percentages and targets instead of the actual number. We had tons of articles saying it was higer.

But we know more or less what MS' target was in terms of subscribers, assuming they had 20M in June 21 their expectation was: (20 000 000 / 1.37) * 1.48 = 21.6M

They never expected to have 23 or 30 million, it was just rumors that were way off. And for the record I believed the rumors too, but they were never MS' expectations.

 

[Dr Bass]

It started sooner than that. I knew a guy who ran an arcade back in the 80s / 90s. I had noticed the number of patrons dwindling and he told me that the PlayStation was killing them. Why keep shoving 50p into Tekken constantly, when you can get around your mate's house and play it for free on Sony's little grey box.

Absolutely. Getting arcade perfect Soul Edge/Blade at home at the time was amazing.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

It's not really about the "target". Isn't 20 millions a disappointment after being sure it was way higher for months? I don't know why the conversation is about percentages and targets instead of the actual number. We had tons of articles saying it was higer.

It is about the target. I don't care about rumors as much as about actual targets.

 

[Hendrick's]

You Xbox guys need to chill with those accusations on why people want Gamepass numbers.

MS are the ones who were consistent with disclosing those numbers to us so we got a habit of constantly being updated with those numbers. They were giving us the impression that this was the most important metric to them, not hardware or software sales. Consistency is key. We didn't ask for this information but instead, wanted actual hardware, software, and profits made, like the rest of their competition . But they shoved Gamepass numbers to our throats instead.

So all of a sudden, when they stopped being consistent and they stopped updating the press on these Gamepass numbers, something tells me they are ashamed of these numbers now.

They only announced GP numbers twice. That’s hardly habitual. Nice try, but this thread actually is full of trolls.

 

[kyliethicc]

They only announced GP numbers twice. That’s hardly habitual. Nice try, but this thread actually is full of trolls.

April 2020 - 10 million
September 2020 - 15 million
January 2021 - 18 million

 

[Hendrick's]

April 2020 - 10 million
September 2020 - 15 million
January 2021 - 18 million

Okay, three times. My point still stands. Continue trolling though if it makes your life worthwhile.

 

[MrFunSocks]

So many people in here don't understand how bonus targets work. As someone that gets paid a bonus rate based on revenue and profit targets, to get the full bonus it is generally not what you actually expect to get, but they're lofty goals. You get your full bonus if you help get results above your projected targets.

That's how it is in my business. We might be expecting amd budgeting for 700mil revenue, but to hit our full bonus we might need to hit 725mil revenue. If the business hit 710mil - 10mil above the budgeted revenue - I don't get my full bonus even though the results were great and above expectations.

 

[kyoji]

So the 2 year target is met but the revised target from this year is not.

Lets all tone it down beyond that. We can discuss like adults.

Agreed, 20 million subs as of june, up from 18 reported in january. No other imaginary numbers as floated around