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News PS5 Sales Expected to ‘Significantly Outperform’ Xbox Series X, Says DFC Intelligence

KungFucius

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Microsoft also knew this, that’s why they tried to go in another direction because they can’t compete in the console market.

This is not accurate. They can't win the console market but they can certainly compete for some market share. They also have PC and whatever they get from streaming.

I am curious how many millions of playstations are bought by predominantly PC games like me that collect dust for years, only to be brushed off for a big exclusive.... which they buy used on ebay 6 months after release.
 

kruis

Exposing the sinister cartel of retailers who allow companies to pay for advertising space.
Dec 11, 2008
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This! Sony has no where near as much cash on hand as Microsoft. What fanboys need to understand is that this is business. Xbox does not have access to "the largest war chest of cash" I don't understand why they think Xbox has free reign on that cash?!?! They read that Microsoft is has moved past 1 Trillion and some how they are bolstered by it, like if Xbox wanted to they could just buy up the industry... no, they can't. In all honesty, Playstation might have a longer leash, in terms of spending, with Sony than Xbox has with Microsoft strictly based on the fact of how important Playstation is to Sony's bottom line.

For Microsoft gaming is just a side business it can get out of at any moment if the ROI isn't worth it, for Sony gaming is one of the pillars the current company is built on and increasingly relies on. That's a crucial difference.
 

Vaelka

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This is not accurate. They can't win the console market but they can certainly compete for some market share. They also have PC and whatever they get from streaming.

I am curious how many millions of playstations are bought by predominantly PC games like me that collect dust for years, only to be brushed off for a big exclusive.... which they buy used on ebay 6 months after release.

'' Winning '' the console market is really just a matter of ego and bragging rights that mostly only people on forums care about.
There are A LOT more PC players and mobile gaming is a force of its own.
All that Microsoft really needs to do if they're dipping so hard into the PC and mobile market is to dip a little bit into the console market too.
So what if Sony sells a lot more consoles?
In the end it's not actually what matters.


I have to laugh at the fanboys who have set to attempt redefining the rules of success as no longer being about hardware but subscribers and monthly active users

Deep in that MS kool aid

Hardware can be sold at a loss.
It's the games that make money and console gaming is a niche in comparison with the PC and mobile market.

Selling the most consoles is like a pointless dick measuring contest, there's more nuance to this which is also why Microsoft are doing what they're doing.
If Microsoft genuinely wanted to rule the console market they could, they could even just buy Sony if they wanted to.
People aren't trying to redefine anything, we never even agreed on a definition to begin with people are just disagreeing with you.
 
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mejin

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Aladin

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Does DFC Intelligence have a good reputation ? did it correctly predict current gen sales ?
Till then, there is an equal probability that sales could be 3:1 or 2:1 or 1:1.
 

Aladin

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How is xbox gaming revenue so high ? Despite not selling that many consoles ? I always wondered.
 

oldergamer

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How is xbox gaming revenue so high ? Despite not selling that many consoles ? I always wondered.
Its high for the simple reason is that Xbox does a better job of selling games then sony. They have made gaming "snackable" with game pass, and in general gamers on Xbox purchase a higher percentage of games.
 
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Hezekiah

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Well here In Europe the Xbox is literally a non existant machine.
Haven't met a single person owning an Xbox one to this date.
Back in 360 days that wasn't the case, the brand is damaged beyond repair as a console, that's why it gets a soft facelift and will take off as a service.
RROD and Microsoft's habit of not supporting their consoles much in the final third of their life didn't help.
 

Humdinger

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I am pretty sure with the latest data we have, Playstation's Profit in the last financial year is more than Xbox's revenue in the same period. But carry on. Don't let me stop you.

I once followed a long, complex thread on GAF regarding Xbox profitability. The conclusion I came to, as did several other members of that thread, was that it is really an impenetrable question, because of the way MS accounts for costs. A lot of the indirect costs of running Xbox are offloaded to other sectors. These costs don't show on the Xbox budget, but on some other budget. I'm not saying it's deceptive. It's just a reflection of how MS budgets things, in a large company with so many overlapping services. Another problem is that the way they account for things often shifts around, so that it's not always clear what cost is being absorbed by which department.

Bottom line, you can't take Xbox division financial statements at face value. A lot of the costs just don't show up there, because they are accounted for by other departments.
 

FStubbs

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Does it matter? The 360 didn't do much outside of English speaking countries either. Still sold 90 million.

Did it actually ever reach 85-90 million?

The 360 was also helped by Sony shooting themselves in the foot at every opportunity (and in the end, the PS3 still outsold it), along with Microsoft coming out of the gate strong with (timed) exclusives and a year's head start. So basically, in order for the Xbox Series X to actually get close to PS5 numbers, they have to hope Sony completely falls on their face so they can run up the score in a handful of English speaking countries, along with having a really strong start. Neither of which at this point are happening.
 
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Derktron

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And I believe it, plain and simple the Xbox brand is a dead brand for other countries. PlayStation is the lead brand along with Nintendo being the other lead. I’d be pleasantly surprised if Microsoft manages to get enough momentum with Xcloud in other countries where PlayStation and Nintendo are key players.
 
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Here is what a ‘perfect storm’ might look like. This assumes the Xbox launch is lackluster without launch window first party next-gen software, while the PS5’s price is very competitive, has launch window first party next generation software, and major timed exclusives:




Such a scenario would be highly unlikely unless Microsoft has truly sabotaged itself with the mismanagement of launch window next generation software and promoted a business strategy that offends major 3rd party publishers and studios. The PS5 has lifetime sales of around 170 million, while the Xbox only sells around 25 million, a ratio of over 6:1. PS6 launches in 2025-2026.

Previous Playstation lifetime sales records were around 150 million, so 10-15% more may not be crazy.

EDIT: Corrected a typo in the chart’s title.
 
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Craig of War

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I would be shocked if Xbox's sales are that high next gen
It said 2 to 1 so if PS5 sell 100-110 mill than Xbox will do 50-60 mill it basic math really and you underestimate Xbox they basically sold 50 mill this gen after they had 1 of the worst new console announcement ever and this time around there is no major fuck up so yeah interpret that how you will.
 
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Xplainin

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The Japanese gaming market is pathetic nowadays.
The PS4 only sold 9 million consoles.
Europe and English speaking countries are where the action is.
The Xbox One sold around 50 million units so far.
That is after a shit console launch, $100 more expensive and a less than stellar first party showing.
This gen they have the most powerful console, have invested in new studios and games, has got gamepass and x cloud rolling out. They do better than last gen.
If the PS5 sells 100 million, and the XSX 75 million, MS jumps for joy and makes a ton of cash.
 
Mar 27, 2020
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Uncharted bunghole
Here is what a ‘perfect storm’ might look like. This assumes the Xbox launch is lackluster without launch window first party next-gen software, while the PS5’s price is very competitive, has launch window first party next generation software, and major timed exclusives:



Such a scenario would be highly unlikely unless Microsoft has truly sabotaged itself with the mismanagement of launch window next generation software and promoted a business strategy that offends major 3rd party publishers and studios. The PS5 has lifetime sales of around 170 million, while the Xbox only sells around 25 million, a ratio of over 6:1. PS6 launches in 2025-2026.

Previous Playstation lifetime sales records were around 150 million, so 10-15% more may not be crazy.

Where does the chart come from?
 

Tschumi

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We can't deal in predictions, a man who eats only predictions dies farting dreams, to pervert a phrase~ that said, this whole thread OP is based on predictions so i feel i can make this prediction: an apparently likely continued consistency in game quality and technology will sustain PS5's model.

Xbox is trying to formulate a narrative whereby generations are suboptimal.. it's not borne out in the real world. PS4 has dominated this generation, Sony are going to repeat their playbook and dominate the next, because for some reason Xbox are shying away from a direct pound-for-pound fight in content and power.

Xbox seem to be feinting away from direct confrontation, seeking to tie down their fans and lock them in with addictive micro-transaction stuffed gameplay.. and bring in new young fans with their game subscription model (easier to ask your parents for a year of free games than Doom Eternal) and addict them too.

Disclaimers.. this is a dark prediction, I'm not trying to say Xbox is the Empire and PS5 the Jedi.. i know that PS5 gets most of its money from addictive mobile phone games in Japan, apparently, I'm just framing the premium console status quo as i think it might develop.
 
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I mean what data did you use to make your predictions with.

I considered a few things like a recent upper estimate of 170 million PS5 sales in only 5 years (I extended it to 7+), Sony’s manufacturing capacity, projected PS5 production for 2020, a few polls suggesting a very lopsided mindshare, major timed exclusives, the current size of the Xbox customer base, (almost halved under a ‘perfect storm’ scenario), rapid falloff of sales with market saturation and the launch of the next generation. Aside from that, I just quickly estimated the figures, so like I said, do not put too much stock into this.

Back in January, I was shocked at what Microsoft revealed to be their console strategy going into the next generation, because of the incredible risks involved. Who would willingly launch a new console generation without dedicated software, unless there had been major problems with development, or key decisions made too late? While many just assumed that this was just a bit of inspired brilliance on MS’s part, I thought it looked more like the result of gross mismanagement years in the making. It is not like we have not seen this pattern with MS before in the past two decades.

Anyway, what has happened still shocked me, and it sounds like there is a lot more to come. I am definitely not optimistic about MS’s market position, and I think they will lose customers, but I do not know to what extent.

I hope that answers your question.


...PS5 shipments may reach 120 – 170 million units during its five years, beating the PS4’s 110 million. That would put it close to, or even beat, the PS2, which sold over 155 million.

 

BattleScar

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According to the articles to which the links below lead, Microsoft is worth one trillion dollars and Sony is worth 78.7 billion dollars. So, wouldn't Microsoft have over 900 billion dollars left?


Market Capital is the total value of a business' shares.
Its a purely theoretical number. A company being worth $1 trillion, doesn't mean they literally have $1 trillion.
 

Vroadstar

Good chance I'm crying about MS or misquoting people.
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'' Winning '' the console market is really just a matter of ego and bragging rights that mostly only people on forums care about..
So what if Sony sells a lot more consoles?
In the end it's not actually what matters.
It's the games that make money and console gaming is a niche in comparison with the PC and mobile market.
If Microsoft genuinely wanted to rule the console market they could, they could even just buy Sony if they wanted to.
People aren't trying to redefine anything
, we never even agreed on a definition to begin with people are just disagreeing with you.

Joined July 20, 2020 and already so much kool aid and truckload of salt and probably an alt burn account too.
 

BattleScar

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'' Winning '' the console market is really just a matter of ego and bragging rights that mostly only people on forums care about.
Sure.

There are A LOT more PC players and mobile gaming is a force of its own.

Sure

All that Microsoft really needs to do if they're dipping so hard into the PC and mobile market is to dip a little bit into the console market too.

They've been dipping pretty hard since the original Xbox.

So what if Sony sells a lot more consoles?
In the end it's not actually what matters.

It definitely matters. Its called brand presence. PlayStation is a very powerful brand. Everywhere except America, consoles are usually just called "PlayStations".
That can kind of brand presence can do a lot for a company.

Hardware can be sold at a loss.
Yes it can. But that didn't go so well for Sony with the PS3.

It's the games that make money and console gaming is a niche in comparison with the PC and mobile market.
Which is why having a powerful brand and high volume is important in this business. You also don't dump money into a loss-leading product in a niche market. That's abject foolishness.

Selling the most consoles is like a pointless dick measuring contest, there's more nuance to this which is also why Microsoft are doing what they're doing.
If Microsoft genuinely wanted to rule the console market they could, they could even just buy Sony if they wanted to.

Measuring Market Capitalisation and Cash-in-hand is also a pointless dick measuring contest.
And no, Microsoft can't just buy Sony if they wanted to. I mean I'm sure they'd love to own all of Sony's film and TV intellectual property. I'm sure they'd love to own Sony's imaging business, which is widely considered to be the best in the world by a significant margin. I'm sure they'd love to own the PlayStation brand. But they can't buy dick if Sony doesn't want to sell.

Microsoft have a lot of money, but that doesn't mean Xbox has a lot of money.
 

Shmunter

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Aug 25, 2018
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Hopefully PS5 install base maintains a Sony baseline for dev specs. Especially important with a Lockheart Xbox rumour potentially causing watered down visuals where higher end is not taken advantage off except resolution.
 
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Oct 16, 2017
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Hopefully PS5 install base maintains a Sony baseline for dev specs. Especially important with a Lockheart Xbox rumour potentially causing watered down visuals where higher end is not taken advantage off except resolution.
There is nothing to worry about. The baseline is not set by the cheapest console; the baseline is set by the biggest install base. PS5 would win that easily.
 
Oct 26, 2018
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Here is what a ‘perfect storm’ might look like. This assumes the Xbox launch is lackluster without launch window first party next-gen software, while the PS5’s price is very competitive, has launch window first party next generation software, and major timed exclusives:



Such a scenario would be highly unlikely unless Microsoft has truly sabotaged itself with the mismanagement of launch window next generation software and promoted a business strategy that offends major 3rd party publishers and studios. The PS5 has lifetime sales of around 170 million, while the Xbox only sells around 25 million, a ratio of over 6:1. PS6 launches in 2025-2026.

Previous Playstation lifetime sales records were around 150 million, so 10-15% more may not be crazy.
PS5 will sell 170 million units (20 million more than PS2 and 50 million more than PS4)

SeX and Lockhart combined will sell 25 million units (half of Xbox One)

Got it. But I wouldn't put too much stock into a chart titled 2022-2027 when the bars are 2020-2027.
 
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GymWolf

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How do I get to be a financial analyst? I think I got this! Ahem, here goes...

"Saturday expected to follow Friday"
"People like puppies and kittens"
"A pat on the head is preferable to a kick in the nuts"

I can do this all day!
Not all peoples love cats and dogs, also an eunuch would prefer a kick in the nuts compared to a condescending head pat... you are fired.
 

DavidGzz

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Jan 7, 2018
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SeX and Lockhart combined will sell 25 million units (half of Xbox One)

1. XSS will be the cheapest console
2. The XSX will not be $100 more expensive than PS5 like Xbox One was compared to PS4
3. PS5 will not have the power advantage
4. Game Pass will be there at launch instead of 4.5 years after launch
5. Messaging is way better than with Xbox One
6. Launching with a Halo
7. BC from the get go, didn't it take a couple years for Xbox One to get it?
8. Much better looking future exclusives like Avowed, Fable, Scorn, etc

With that said can you explain how this would be possible because it seems pretty laughable.
 
Oct 16, 2017
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1. XSS will be the cheapest console
2. The XSX will not be $100 more expensive than PS5 like Xbox One was compared to PS4
3. PS5 will not have the power advantage
4. Game Pass will be there at launch instead of 4.5 years after launch
5. Messaging is way better than with Xbox One
6. Launching with a Halo
7. BC from the get go, didn't it take a couple years for Xbox One to get it?
8. Much better looking future exclusives like Avowed, Fable, Scorn, etc

With that said can you explain how this would be possible because it seems pretty laughable.
1. We don't know Series S would even launch at this point. This is August, if it exists we would have seen hardware leaks by now with production ramping.

2. We absolutely don't know the price difference. Especially since historically this forum under-estimate price of Xbox hardware while over-estimate the price of Playstation hardware.

3. Playstation never needed the power advantage to win. It only had power this gen by pure accident.

4. Good luck gambling your all on Gamepass.

5. I would say lying about Halo Infinite "being built from the ground up for Series X" is very bad messaging.

6. Good luck launching with an Xbox One game as your crowning jewel for next gen.

7. BC only matters to make it harder for existing customers to leave, it doesn't get you new customers.

8. None of them are available for 2 years after launch.
 

martino

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1. XSS will be the cheapest console
2. The XSX will not be $100 more expensive than PS5 like Xbox One was compared to PS4
3. PS5 will not have the power advantage
4. Game Pass will be there at launch instead of 4.5 years after launch
5. Messaging is way better than with Xbox One
6. Launching with a Halo
7. BC from the get go, didn't it take a couple years for Xbox One to get it?
8. Much better looking future exclusives like Avowed, Fable, Scorn, etc

With that said can you explain how this would be possible because it seems pretty laughable.
I agree with this (if advantages are really there in the end) but there is something i was not thinking about until recently.
All existing F2P bringing lot of cash are locked to sony platform (and i understand now why)
Even if MS offer the cheapest or better version of them next gen, current progress and content is locked to sony account.
You can only change platform for new games or if you accept to loose all content in this case.
The question now is what role this will play in next gen transition but it will weight more or less in people decision
 
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DavidGzz

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1. We don't know Series S would even launch at this point. This is August, if it exists we would have seen hardware leaks by now with production ramping.

2. We absolutely don't know the price difference. Especially since historically this forum under-estimate price of Xbox hardware while over-estimate the price of Playstation hardware.

3. Playstation never needed the power advantage to win. It only had power this gen by pure accident.

4. Good luck gambling your all on Gamepass.

5. I would say lying about Halo Infinite "being built from the ground up for Series X" is very bad messaging.

6. Good luck launching with an Xbox One game as your crowning jewel for next gen.

7. BC only matters to make it harder for existing customers to leave, it doesn't get you new customers.

8. None of them are available for 2 years after launch.

1. Where were the leaks for PS5 and XSX?

2. You think MS would let Sony have a $100 price advantage again?

3. Power isn't required but it is a nice bonus and they don't have it this time.

4. Game Pass is a bonus, has 12 million+ subs(estimate going by 10+ in April), They are still releasing games like normal. It's still a fact that it's launching with this Bonus and I forgot Xcloud which will be just as much of a factor.

5. Nowhere near as bad as E3 2013 FACT. Only meme spreading fanboys in this console war bubble care as much as you.

6. Graphics aren't everything. Zelda had terrible graphics at launch compared to the best games on PS4 and Xbox One. Gameplay matters more or else Fortnite wouldn't be stomping a mudhole in every online shooter. Besides, what other FTP online shooter looks better? Maybe you'd like their art style more, but Halo is no slouch when compared to the competetion.

7. BC absolutely matters when a new console is considered especially when Game Pass is factor. Immediate access to 300+ games for $15 a month. Forza Horizon will be the prettiest racer, Gears 5 the best looking TPS, Ori the prettiest side scroller, etc

8. And when are PS exclusives coming? MS will have just as many.

Also, your whole argument seems to be based on me saying it will sell better than PS5. No, my argument is that there is no way it sells half as much as Xbox One.
 
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Blade2.0

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Dec 3, 2018
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They predicted 45 million consoles sold by 2020? Maybe they drank the consoles are dead kool aid back then?
They were basically going with PS3 and Xbox 360 projections, but reversed the PS4(Xbox 360) and Xbox one (PS3) sales projections. That's pretty much on the money where that gens hardware ended up with PS3 actually overcoming 360s lead by the end of it.

Looks like they forgot to take into account that the console market is erratic in the best of times.

The Japanese gaming market is pathetic nowadays.
The PS4 only sold 9 million consoles.
Europe and English speaking countries are where the action is.
The Xbox One sold around 50 million units so far.
That is after a shit console launch, $100 more expensive and a less than stellar first party showing.
This gen they have the most powerful console, have invested in new studios and games, has got gamepass and x cloud rolling out. They do better than last gen.
If the PS5 sells 100 million, and the XSX 75 million, MS jumps for joy and makes a ton of cash.

This is why you don't get paid for your business analysis.
 
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Oct 16, 2017
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1. Where were the leaks for PS5 and XSX?

2. You think MS would let Sony have a $100 price advantage again?

3. Power isn't required but it is a nice bonus and they don't have it this time.

4. Game Pass is a bonus, has 12 million+ subs(estimate going by 10+ in April), They are still releasing games like normal. It's still a fact that it's launching with this Bonus and I forgot Xcloud which will be just as much of a factor.

5. Nowhere near as bad as E3 2013 FACT. Only meme spreading fanboys in this console war bubble care as much as you.

6. Graphics aren't everything. Zelda had terrible graphics at launch compared to the best games on PS4 and Xbox One. Gameplay matters more or else Fortnite wouldn't be stomping a mudhole in every online shooter. Besides, what other FTP online shooter looks better? Maybe you'd like their art style more, but Halo is no slouch when compared to the competetion.

7. BC absolutely matters when a new console is considered especially when Game Pass is factor. Immediate access to 300+ games for $15 a month. Forza Horizon will be the prettiest racer, Gears 5 the best looking TPS, Ori the prettiest side scroller, etc

8. And when are PS exclusives coming? MS will have just as many.

Also, your whole argument seems to be based on me saying it will sell better than PS5. No, my argument is that there is no way it sells half as much as Xbox One.
1. Well there was that photo of PS5 in a chinese factory that was accidentally released. So there are leaks. Really, at this point Series S is more wishful thinking than reality. There is no time to reveal it now.

2. It doesn't matter what MS wants, MS always over-prices their hardware above what game forum expected. You can talk about warchest all you like, that never worked out.

3. Playstation didn't have a power advantage historically, it doesn't stop past Playstations from dominating. So my point is that it barely matters.

4. Gamepass is not that profitable and most claims of its importance comes from future expectations, not current success. Either way, Xbox has hitched to wagon to Gamepass and it lives or dies by it now. The fate is sealed either way.

5. The fact is Xbox PR has basically destroyed all trust. No one really believe anything they say anymore, because they already lied too much. The only difference is that an Xbox fan would assume Xbox PR is hiding something good (like the mythical Series S/Lockhart), rather than hiding something bad (like the lack of Series X exclusive 1st party games for 2 years).

6. If Graphics aren't everything, then maybe Series X shouldn't be over-engineered to the point that they couldn't use it for the Showcase, despite it being 4 months away from launch.

7. We will see if any of that is true, once we actually see Series X running games. Because I am sure no one has seen it do that yet outside of game studios.

8. You remind me of a fan last year, who claim that Sony not announcing what they are doing for so long must mean they are not doing anything at all. That if Playstation isn't constantly reporting to the media about their projects that it means they must not have any projects.

Finally, yes, there is a way for Series X to sell worse than Xbox One. Because i have seen many console companies die by this point, I saw what had happened before can happen again. Your assumption that Xbox can live forever holding onto its current install base, is not realistic. Nintendo worked really hard to get the lost fans to return for Switch after wiiU, it didn't occur by itself for nothing. There is no baseline; if you mess up, your customer base will drop further.
 

DavidGzz

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1. Well there was that photo of PS5 in a chinese factory that was accidentally released. So there are leaks. Really, at this point Series S is more wishful thinking than reality. There is no time to reveal it now.

2. It doesn't matter what MS wants, MS always over-prices their hardware above what game forum expected. You can talk about warchest all you like, that never worked out.

3. Playstation didn't have a power advantage historically, it doesn't stop past Playstations from dominating. So my point is that it barely matters.

4. Gamepass is not that profitable and most claims of its importance comes from future expectations, not current success. Either way, Xbox has hitched to wagon to Gamepass and it lives or dies by it now. The fate is sealed either way.

5. The fact is Xbox PR has basically destroyed all trust. No one really believe anything they say anymore, because they already lied too much. The only difference is that an Xbox fan would assume Xbox PR is hiding something good (like the mythical Series S/Lockhart), rather than hiding something bad (like the lack of Series X exclusive 1st party games for 2 years).

6. If Graphics aren't everything, then maybe Series X shouldn't be over-engineered to the point that they couldn't use it for the Showcase, despite it being 4 months away from launch.

7. We will see if any of that is true, once we actually see Series X running games. Because I am sure no one has seen it do that yet outside of game studios.

8. You remind me of a fan last year, who claim that Sony not announcing what they are doing for so long must mean they are not doing anything at all. That if Playstation isn't constantly reporting to the media about their projects that it means they must not have any projects.

Finally, yes, there is a way for Series X to sell worse than Xbox One. Because i have seen many console companies die by this point, I saw what had happened before can happen again. Your assumption that Xbox can live forever holding onto its current install base, is not realistic. Nintendo worked really hard to get the lost fans to return for Switch after wiiU, it didn't occur by itself for nothing. There is no baseline; if you mess up, your customer base will drop further.

I'm not going step by step again. The Chinese factory picture was AFTER the reveal. You just posted how Nintendo came back from Wii U which did way worse than the Xbox One. If they can come back, so can MS. You can keep hoping S doesn't exist. It would be a blow to Playstation. MS can and will sell more XSX+XSS than Xbox One. It will be 50% more if not more not 100% less like you guys want to believe. And if you don't believe that, then why quote me in the first place?