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Geoff Keighley: Big video game deals in final stages of negotiations

Helghan

Member
They need profit, there are investors and it's a business not charity.
Old games/games that won't sell on the platform on day 1 I get it, this is how games get there, they won't sell enough on Xbox so the payment upfront is enough to cover the "loss of not selling there".

But on exclusives that no one on that platform will buy? And remember, 15USD down the line, as most people are on 2 years plan for xbox live + one buck.
How long can you afford to lose money (yeah, they didn't break even with gamepass yet)? And even so, how will this be profitable if each game costs millions to make?
This is where the indie like/MTX/GaaS comes into play.

It's not a big brain moment, it's logic.
You aren't explaining why 9 billion isn't enough to create those games.
 

Faithless83

Banned
You need games to attract your console. If you dont have killer lineups, people wont spend that much on your console. Xbox one suffered badly from this.

Right now, their console have gamepass, a ludicrous deal. and good line up, compared to xbox one. This would encourage people to buy xbox.

Once they own the device, they will be able to buy 3rd party games.

That is how business work. You need to give a reason to customers, to spend money on your system,
The funny part is that people who are buying are doing because of gamepass in order to save money.
It isn't that hard to understand. I agree with you that a bigger installed base is what drives sales, but gamepass is different and the third party games sales show that.
Its what people want. People play those games, spend their money on those games.

Look at movies. before it was cinema. Then disc movies come out. And now its streaming movies. People change the industry. The industry go to where people spend money on.

If you wanna fight those mtx games, then go fight against those people who spend money on those games.
That was my problem with mobile games back then. It gave publishers bad ideas.
Guess what will happen with a gamepass world where you can buy a game for $70, or wait and see if it will eventually come into the $15/Month service.

Publishers will be like "our games aren't selling as much. We'll need to make cheaper games".
 

Toots

Gold Member

no girl-boyz is safe from that stud

Anyway, there was a time when "big video game deal" meant there would be bangers to play on the horizon, like two entities fusing their strengh to become a tremedously powerful being (think dbz fusions - first thing coming to mind is the Square-Enix merger).
Nowadays it seems it's only for obscure fiscal optimization reasons, and of course for twitards to suck themselves off think about how much money moved from one fat pocket to another.
 

RevGaming

Member
You aren't explaining why 9 billion isn't enough to create those games.

$9B from gamepass, plus mtx, plus some individual sales in profits every year would be enough for 30 plus studios (40 because I think MS ain't done lol) assuming each game costs $50-200m budget

but I predict that's not what they will end up earning.
 

kingfey

Banned
Here you go
Steve Harvey Reaction GIF



^ Xbox Digital sales not included
 

Faithless83

Banned
You aren't explaining why 9 billion isn't enough to create those games.
Because gamepass isn't profitable by itself, let alone to sustain development.
It's basic math, but I'll help you out:

If you earn a billion annually, but you spend 100 million monthly, what is your next step to fix this situation?
Spend more or cut expenses?
 

Interfectum

Member
In your dreams.

Stadia is a total failure to the point they did shut down their internal game development team, and MS also has a shit on of money and 20 years after the release of the first Xbox, Sony continues to outperform them.


Apple makes more money from gaming than MS or Nintendo (in fact, only Tencent and Sony make more money than them from gaming) whitout having a console and without making their own games. They may do a console, but I highly doubt they would buy any dev or publisher.
They need developers and content though.

Across their services they can't keep up with Netflix, Disney+, etc with what they have. If they want to continue down the services path they'll have to eventually start buying bodies and IP to keep up. WB is a good buy for them in this regard.
 

Helghan

Member
Because gamepass isn't profitable by itself, let alone to sustain development.
It's basic math, but I'll help you out:

If you earn a billion annually, but you spend 100 million monthly, what is your next step to fix this situation?
Spend more or cut expenses?
You said that almost every game would need MTX and be transformed in a GaaS for Game Pass to be profitable. I'm showing you that they could easily earn 9 Billion a year somewhere in the next 5 years. And your response is that they are still spending more than 9 Billion. Tell me how. How are they spending more than 9 Billion a year. Show me the cost per studio, per employee, whatever makes you think that 9 Billion isn't enough to create games and fund all of their studios without MTX.
 

kingfey

Banned
The funny part is that people who are buying are doing because of gamepass in order to save money.
It isn't that hard to understand. I agree with you that a bigger installed base is what drives sales, but gamepass is different and the third party games sales show that.
Not every game is on gamepass. Also the money saved from gamepass, goes to other games.

When people have enough money, they will spend it. Its human nature.

That was my problem with mobile games back then. It gave publishers bad ideas.
Guess what will happen with a gamepass world where you can buy a game for $70, or wait and see if it will eventually come into the $15/Month service.
15$ monthly service generates billions of dollars. They generate enough money to make games, developers wants.

You also cant sustain a service like that, with shit mtx games. WOW would have had more success, compared to ff14. Difference is, ff14 spent money on making contents, and people subscribed to that game, while people left wow slowly.

Publishers will be like "our games aren't selling as much. We'll need to make cheaper games".
Depends on where they sell, or if the game is even good.

The market is crowded, and not enough space for everyone. Services like gamepass allows people to find the games they are looking for. Indie games thriving on that service, because they found audience.


You need to understand about buying concept. This year, there is 3 big games right now. Arceus, which was released 6 days ago, HFW, and Elden ring. 3 big games. if people buy 1 one of these 3 games, they wont see other game sales, since they are busy playing those games. You wont have success, if your game is released next to these big guys.
 

Faithless83

Banned
You said that almost every game would need MTX and be transformed in a GaaS for Game Pass to be profitable. I'm showing you that they could easily earn 9 Billion a year somewhere in the next 5 years. And your response is that they are still spending more than 9 Billion. Tell me how. How are they spending more than 9 Billion a year. Show me the cost per studio, per employee, whatever makes you think that 9 Billion isn't enough to create games and fund all of their studios without MTX.

Not every game is on gamepass. Also the money saved from gamepass, goes to other games.

When people have enough money, they will spend it. Its human nature.


15$ monthly service generates billions of dollars. They generate enough money to make games, developers wants.

You also cant sustain a service like that, with shit mtx games. WOW would have had more success, compared to ff14. Difference is, ff14 spent money on making contents, and people subscribed to that game, while people left wow slowly.


Depends on where they sell, or if the game is even good.

The market is crowded, and not enough space for everyone. Services like gamepass allows people to find the games they are looking for. Indie games thriving on that service, because they found audience.


You need to understand about buying concept. This year, there is 3 big games right now. Arceus, which was released 6 days ago, HFW, and Elden ring. 3 big games. if people buy 1 one of these 3 games, they wont see other game sales, since they are busy playing those games. You wont have success, if your game is released next to these big guys.

Saves me time to say it in one reply, so I'll say it more time:

Gamepass is not profitable.
What does that mean?
Every dollar it makes, it goes to paying the publishers/gamedevs.

So no, the gamepass "9 zillion money" doesn't pay development, it doesn't even pay the games that are there currently.
That's why MS is buying devs, to try to make it profitable.

Are we all on the same page now?
 
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kingfey

Banned
Gamepass is not profitable.
in your dreams.

Psnow with 3m users can get RD2, and other monthly games, yet gamepass who charges more than that service isnt profitable?

What kind of dumb shit do you guys spew?

What does that mean?
Every dollar it makes, it goes to paying the publishers/gamedevs.
It doesnt. Devs dont get $100m. At most, their deal wont reach 70m per drop for all the games. Look at epic giveaway games. That is how much games worth to put them in your platform.

So no, the gamepass "9 zillion money" doesn't pay development, it doesn't even pay the games that are there currently.
That's why MS is buying devs, to try to make it profitable.
Those are already being paid.
Every month, gamepass gets certain money. MS negotiates with devs to put their games on the service. That month income from gamepass pays those devs. at 18m users from last year, at average of 10$, they gain $180m.

But here 1 key thing you are ignoring. Those devs sell their games on xbox. and only gamepass users get those games. None gamepass users have to buy those games. This gives MS a better negotiation offer. 80m for all of these games (it should cost higher than $30m to begin with) ,They are left with $100m after that.

Those left over money are used to bring big games to the service.

Are we all on the same page now?
You arent even close to it.
 

RevGaming

Member
in your dreams.

Psnow with 3m users can get RD2, and other monthly games, yet gamepass who charges more than that service isnt profitable?

What kind of dumb shit do you guys spew?


It doesnt. Devs dont get $100m. At most, their deal wont reach 70m per drop for all the games. Look at epic giveaway games. That is how much games worth to put them in your platform.


Those are already being paid.
Every month, gamepass gets certain money. MS negotiates with devs to put their games on the service. That month income from gamepass pays those devs. at 18m users from last year, at average of 10$, they gain $180m.

But here 1 key thing you are ignoring. Those devs sell their games on xbox. and only gamepass users get those games. None gamepass users have to buy those games. This gives MS a better negotiation offer. 80m for all of these games (it should cost higher than $30m to begin with) ,They are left with $100m after that.

Those left over money are used to bring big games to the service.


You arent even close to it.

You do know Netflix has 228m subs and they're losing money right? There aren't that many gamers compared to movie/series watchers and even less because mobile gamers aren't interested in Halo or DOOM. The only way they make up for that are MTx and people will be spending them on the few games they like, not each one of them.

We'll see, but if you have absolutely no concern that it may not work, then idk what to tell you. We provided some evidence to at least get some concerns.

It may work, maybe.
 
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Corrik

Member
In reality FTC will probably accellerata the things
there's a rumor that the Activision deal will go faster than anyone expect and will close at the end of 2022. meanwhile Ms can setup next one (assuming Geoff and Jeff aren't already talking about ms)
This was always the case. When they said it would close in 2023 it was Fiscal Year 2023. Which runs from July 2022 to June 2023.
 

Faithless83

Banned
in your dreams.

Psnow with 3m users can get RD2, and other monthly games, yet gamepass who charges more than that service isnt profitable?

What kind of dumb shit do you guys spew?
Find one article where it says that Gamepass is profitable.

I have one from November 2021 that says it isn't:


Sorry to bring the bad news, but what you think isn't reality.
Glad we sorted it out. :messenger_sunglasses:
 

Helghan

Member
Saves me time to say it in one reply, so I'll say it more time:

Gamepass is not profitable.
What does that mean?
Every dollar it makes, it goes to paying the publishers/gamedevs.

So no, the gamepass "9 zillion money" doesn't pay development, it doesn't even pay the games that are there currently.
That's why MS is buying devs, to try to make it profitable.

Are we all on the same page now?
Not really, you're just saying stuff without backing it up with any sources...
 

kingfey

Banned
Find one article where it says that Gamepass is profitable.

I have one from November 2021 that says it isn't:


Sorry to bring the bad news, but what you think isn't reality.
Glad we sorted it out. :messenger_sunglasses:
I have my own article too
 

yurinka

Member
They need developers and content though.

Across their services they can't keep up with Netflix, Disney+, etc with what they have. If they want to continue down the services path they'll have to eventually start buying bodies and IP to keep up. WB is a good buy for them in this regard.
Yes, but the thing is that their Stadia platform and concept may make sense in 10 or 20 years from now but as of now the internet infrastructure required isn't there, so their potential market is too small enough to get the interest of the devs and their business model isn't appealing enough for players and devs.

They would have to buy a shit ton of big publishers to be something appealing, not only WB. But also EA, Take 2, Bandai Namco, Square, Capcom and Sega, Ubi and Embracr or something like that and to put all of them to make Stadia exclusive games. Something I thtink won't happen at all.
 

Faithless83

Banned

kingfey

Banned
The link is there, so it have source.

English is my second language, so let's look it up together:

nhDPgsN.png


YGrD3R8.png


It looks like it means two different things to me. :messenger_sunglasses:
How do you have a profit, if you cant sustain your business? What kind of backassward logic is this?
 

kingfey

Banned
Yes, but the thing is that their Stadia platform and concept may make sense in 10 or 20 years from now but as of now the internet infrastructure required isn't there, so their potential market is too small enough to get the interest of the devs and their business model isn't appealing enough for players and devs.
Its appealing to people now. Especially with chip shortages, and expensive gpu.

They would have to buy a shit ton of big publishers to be something appealing, not only WB. But also EA, Take 2, Bandai Namco, Square, Capcom and Sega, Ubi and Embracr or something like that and to put all of them to make Stadia exclusive games. Something I thtink won't happen at all.
$70b showed what it takes to have certain IPs.

With enough money, they can buy those studios. They dont need to make it exclusively. just put those games on the system, and people will find value there. MS is publishing their games on steam, and windows store, while putting it on their system.
 
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Faithless83

Banned
How do you have a profit, if you cant sustain your business? What kind of backassward logic is this?
School failed you, man. I'm sorry for that.

Let me help you:

Imagine that you earn "5000 moneys" a month.

Some months you spend 6000 moneys, as your parents sometimes help you with the bills, (Xbox division and it's parent company Microsoft).
In order to pay them back, you spend 4000 next month.

Based on that, it's sustainable, but not profitable for you, as you're spending everything you earn.
 

kingfey

Banned
School failed you, man. I'm sorry for that.
Come On Reaction GIF by MOODMAN


Imagine that you earn "5000 moneys" a month.

Season 9 Ok GIF by The Office


Some months you spend 6000 moneys, as your parents sometimes help you with the bills, (Xbox division and it's parent company Microsoft).
In order to pay them back, you spend 4000 next month.
How much do you think games on gamepass cost? Do you think MS takes games from devs, and puts store known as gamepass store?
What happened to xbox store? or Windows store? Do these thing not exist?

This is what happens, when you dont take economic classes. we get pretty takes like this.

Games still exist on the xbox store. Gamepass doesnt pay anything to have those games on their service. Its like google having youtube on their chrome. That is 1 cost down.

then you have the cost of games. These work in monthly basis.

Epic spent at least $11.6 million on free games and gained 5 million new users in return​

here is the chart for these games

A0nJVFA.png



You see how much these games cost? Gamepass only has 1 year contract, and they arent giving away the games for free. The cost would be less than, what Epic/Playstation pay the developers, to put their games on their service. The remaining money goes to xbox 1st party studios, to help them fun the next project.

Based on that, it's sustainable, but not profitable for you, as you're spending everything you earn.
Based on the chart I gave you here, its sustainable and profitable.

Your example isnt even sustainable example.

Sustainable means depending on your money, not outside help. If you get outside help, you dont sustainable income.

Profit means gaining more money, which you dont need to invest it back. Gamepass is investing business. It cant report profits, because it goes to investing mode.
 
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Helghan

Member
The link is there, so it have source.

English is my second language, so let's look it up together:

nhDPgsN.png


YGrD3R8.png


It looks like it means two different things to me. :messenger_sunglasses:
We are talking about something in 5 years time. Currently it's sustainable, obviously when you have more subscribers it will be profitable. Without any MTX involved. Not to say that no games will have MTX, obviously some of them will, but not that many. We'll still have great SP experiences without any MTX.
 

Faithless83

Banned
Come On Reaction GIF by MOODMAN




Season 9 Ok GIF by The Office



How much do you think games on gamepass cost? Do you think MS takes games from devs, and puts store known as gamepass store?
What happened to xbox store? or Windows store? Do these thing not exist?

This is what happens, when you dont take economic classes. we get pretty takes like this.

Games still exist on the xbox store. Gamepass doesnt pay anything to have those games on their service. Its like google having youtube on their chrome. That is 1 cost down.

then you have the cost of games. These work in monthly basis.

Epic spent at least $11.6 million on free games and gained 5 million new users in return​

here is the chart for these games

A0nJVFA.png



You see how much these games cost? Gamepass only has 1 year contract, and they arent giving away the games for free. The cost would be less than, what Epic/Playstation pay the developers, to put their games on their service. The remaining money goes to xbox 1st party studios, to help them fun the next project.


Based on the chart I gave you here, its sustainable and profitable.

Your example isnt even sustainable example.

Sustainable means depending on your money, not outside help. If you get outside help, you dont sustainable income.

Profit means gaining more money, which you dont need to invest it back. Gamepass is investing business. It cant report profits, because it goes to investing mode.
Were you even paying attention?
If it's not profitable, it's not making money.

How are you developing games with gamepass money, if it doesn't make money?
We are talking about something in 5 years time. Currently it's sustainable, obviously when you have more subscribers it will be profitable. Without any MTX involved. Not to say that no games will have MTX, obviously some of them will, but not that many. We'll still have great SP experiences without any MTX.
At least you understood the definitions. So, Gamepass cannot generate development money, because it isn't profitable.
Game development money can come from somewhere else, but not from Gamepass.

See, it just took a long time, but we got to the same point.
giphy.gif
 
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DrAspirino

Banned
Because gamepass isn't profitable by itself, let alone to sustain development.
It's basic math.
So, by that logic, has Satya Nadella made a gargantuan mistake backing GamePass and moving his entire company (a "for profit" bussiness by the way) towards a subscription model?????

I mean... EA has their own service added to GamePass Ultimate, so they're also making a huge mistake, and let's not even talk about Ubisoft and their new subscription service, which makes them lose money.

Sure, pal... you know waaaay more how to make money than these people that milk us out for a living. /s
 

kingfey

Banned
Doubt we would ever see Halo Infinite sales.

It really didn't do good in the overall sales charts.
another idiot post just pop up now.

Xbox+steam+gamepass. That is huge sales which xbox did. But you guys will ignore it anyway.
 

kingfey

Banned
He asked about sales and I told him the truth.

Stop getting defensive.
there is no defense their. you literally said the sales is shit.

It really didn't do good in the overall sales charts.
This is what you said.

There is the xbox console, which xbox fans have been waiting for master chief, then you have gamepass users, and then you have Steam users who bought the game day1.

Are you the guy who asks about disc sales, when the game has digital sales. because that is what you sound like.
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
there is no defense their. you literally said the sales is shit.
I looked at the sales charts and they weren't good.

This is what you said.

There is the xbox console, which xbox fans have been waiting for master chief, then you have gamepass users, and then you have Steam users who bought the game day1.

Are you the guy who asks about disc sales, when the game has digital sales. because that is what you sound like.

Game Pass users aren't sales.

I looked at all the game charts and the sales were poor.

Stop it.
 

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Doubt we would ever see Halo Infinite sales.

It really didn't do good in the overall sales charts.
Halo was 2nd in sales in December NPD but for some reason didn’t even chart in the top 20 of the year.

hWucYFl.jpg


Forza barely made it. Behind back4blood. Mlb the show, a baseball game is at number 9. Miles, a 2020, $40-50 game is at 7.

It’s clear people don’t buy these games now that they are on gamepass. MS made $250 mill from gamepass subs in December. That’s 4 million sales at $60. I guess that’s all they care about now.
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
Halo was 2nd in sales in December NPD but for some reason didn’t even chart in the top 20 of the year.

hWucYFl.jpg


Forza barely made it. Behind back4blood. Mlb the show, a baseball game is at number 9. Miles, a 2020, $40-50 game is at 7.

It’s clear people don’t buy these games now that they are on gamepass. MS made $250 mill from gamepass subs in December. That’s 4 million sales at $60. I guess that’s all they care about now.

I looked at the sales charts a few weeks ago in Europe.

Spain
It made the Top 10 Xbox Series Charts for the month of December in Span. It didn't reach the top 10 on the Xbox One charts.

Swizterland
It debuted at 6 and never made it to the top 10 again.

Italy
It didn't chart in the top 10 for the week.

Belgium
Didn't make the top 5.

France
Not in the top 5

Australia and New Zealand
Appeared 1 and 2 the first week. No data for the following week. It disappeared from the top 3 after the second week.

United Kingdom
04 (NE) HALO INFINITE (MICROSOFT)
20 (04) HALO INFINITE (MICROSOFT)
34 (20) HALO INFINITE (MICROSOFT)

Failed to make the top 40.

That only leaves US and Steam sales charts. Overall, yes, I don't think it performed those good sales wise.

On one end they say sales don't matter and it's about Game Pass. However, when you bring up Game Pass bringing down physical + digital sales, people tend to get really defensive.
 

Faithless83

Banned
So, by that logic, has Satya Nadella made a gargantuan mistake backing GamePass and moving his entire company (a "for profit" bussiness by the way) towards a subscription model?????

I mean... EA has their own service added to GamePass Ultimate, so they're also making a huge mistake, and let's not even talk about Ubisoft and their new subscription service, which makes them lose money.

Sure, pal... you know waaaay more how to make money than these people that milk us out for a living. /s
It's a fact, not logic. Gamepass is not profitable, period.
EA has old games in EA play, not day one releases and even so, they are multiplatform, same as Ubisoft.

A lot of streaming services start trying to break even, most die without doing so.
source please.
Enjoy:

Do you guys have any article that says "Gamepass is profitable" with numbers and all or is it just wishful thinking?
No? Yeah... thought so.
 

Dane

Member
Halo was released at December 8th and still managed to secure a second place at the all platform month, Forza Horizon 5 was released in November and got into the Top 20 year overall, for comparison, Forza Horizon 4 which was released in October 2018 didn't chart on that category.
 
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