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Business GamingBolt: Sony and PS5's performance in Japan is becoming a grave concern

Marty-McFly

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Those devs from Japan are going to ignore the console where they most likely get their most sales? Not a chance

I'm on the PS5 store right now and there's already a ton of those same Japanese niche games
Niche Japanese titles have generally been selling better on Switch than PS4 for years at this point, and PS4 actually had a Japanese userbase to speak of.
 
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On Demand

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Sony is not worried nor cares about Japan when the majority of their sales are outside that market.

PS5 is still breaking sales records and selling faster than PS4. Still getting all the major 3rd party support. The world is much bigger than Japan for Sony. This is a non issue.

And LMFAO at people saying in the same sentence that Xbox is doing well there while PlayStation is struggling. That’s some delusional bullshit.
 

Bryank75

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The problem with current Sony is their lack of care for the details.... they don't care about losing ground in Japan, they don't care about losing a few million to PC, they don't care about losing a few million because of Zenimax, they dont care about losing a few million because of Gamepass, they don't care about losing customers due to losing exclusives..... they don't care about communicating to their hardcore or about losing them either.

How many millions will it add up to in the end?

What type of moron is in charge?

Edit: They also don't care about losing people due to censorship.
 
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Marty-McFly

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Sony is not worried nor cares about Japan when the majority of their sales are outside that market.

PS5 is still breaking sales records and selling faster than PS4. Still getting all the major 3rd party support. The world is much bigger than Japan for Sony. This is a non issue.

And LMFAO at people saying in the same sentence that Xbox is doing well there while PlayStation is struggling. That’s some delusional bullshit.
Sony definitely cares about Japan, they just ultimately cannot feasibly compete against Switch in this territory. They attempted to go against Nintendo in the handheld sector and were beaten out of that space.
 
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NonPhixion

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Last Gen Nintendo had the Wii U and PlayStation had the PS4. How well did that go for each of them in Japan? The PS5 will do fine. 9months vs 4 years and we got people in here “concerned”

we know you’re not really concerned at all tho.
 

bender

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The problem with current Sony is their lack of care for the details.... they don't care about losing ground in Japan, they don't care about losing a few million to PC, they don't care about losing a few million because of Zenimax, they dont care about losing a few million because of Gamepass, they don't care about losing customers due to losing exclusives..... they don't care about communicating to their hardcore or about losing them either.

How many millions will it add up to in the end?

What type of moron is in charge?

They'll be fine as long as they have you, Bryank75 Bryank75
 

PropellerEar

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The problem with current Sony is their lack of care for the details.... they don't care about losing ground in Japan, they don't care about losing a few million to PC, they don't care about losing a few million because of Zenimax, they dont care about losing a few million because of Gamepass, they don't care about losing customers due to losing exclusives..... they don't care about communicating to their hardcore or about losing them either.

How many millions will it add up to in the end?

What type of moron is in charge?
Bean counters without vision usually sort to this...
All about maximising the short term profit.
 

yurinka

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No, as of now Switch has been outselling the PlayStation brand for 3 years running and is doubling their sales this fiscal year WW.

Launch sales numbers are merely PR optics for who ships the most.
Obviously Switch has been outselling because it has been on the peak of its sales cycle while the PS ones have been in their low part of the sales cycle.

This is why launch aligned sales is the most fair way to compare sales. And if for one of them we only have its launch window we only can compare that, and the logical would be to compare it with the same period of ofther consoles. It isn't PR, it's just that you're a fanboy who doesn't accept facts.

To cherrypick a period where Switch has the sales peak every console has, while the other ones are in the low part of their sales cycle would be as dumb/fair as to say PS is killling Switch because their current consoles sold 126.5M consoles until now when Switch sold 89.04M. Or to compare years when it's a PS the one that is on its peak while the Nintendo ones are in the lower part of their sales curve without launch aligning.

Fair comparisions would be all the PS5 period vs the same launch aligned Switch period, and all Switch period vs the same launch aligned PS4 period. And if not at least to look at the whole picture looking what all both sold since the start and put it into context of in which point each one is on their sales curve.

It's dumb to say ha! ha! This console that just released has low sales compared to this one that released 3 or 4 years ago! It's obvious, one is starting so it has lower sales, after 3 or 4 years will be on its peak and will be selling a lot. And that one that is now in the peak has this sales now but when it was on its launch also had that low sales, because it's how sales curves work and why it's important to launch align to compare.
 
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Hobbygaming

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Niche Japanese titles have generally been selling better on Switch than PS4 for years at this point, and PS4 actually had a Japanese userbase to speak of.
Are there any comparisons to back your claims? Not saying you're wrong but 3rd party titles tend to sell way less than 1st party Nintendo exclusives on Nintendo consoles like the Switch
 
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Brigandier

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Damn we've not had a Concerny/Sony is teh dOOmed thread for a very long time......... Always leads to arguing over which company sells the most plastic boxes, Must be a lot of shareholders here.

Tired Cat GIF
 

Marty-McFly

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Obviously Switch has been outselling because it has been on the peak of its sales cycle while the PS ones have been in their low part of the sales cycle.

This is why launch aligned sales is the most fair way to compare sales. And if for one of them we only have its launch window we only can compare that, and the logical would be to compare it with the same period of ofther consoles. It isn't PR, it's just that you're a fanboy who doesn't accept facts.

To cherrypick a period where Switch has the sales peak every console has, while the other ones are in the low part of their sales cycle would be as dumb/fair as to say PS is killling Switch because their current consoles sold 126.5M consoles until now when Switch sold 89.04M. Or to compare years when it's a PS the one that is on its peak while the Nintendo ones are in the lower part of their sales curve without launch aligning.

Fair comparisions would be all the PS5 period vs the same launch aligned Switch period, and all Switch period vs the same launch aligned PS4 period. And if not at least to look at the whole picture looking what all both sold since the start and put it into context of in which point each one is on their sales curve.

It's dumb to say ha! ha! This console that just released has low sales compared to this one that released 3 or 4 years ago! It's obvious, one is starting so it has lower sales, after 3 or 4 years will be on its peak and will be selling a lot. And that one that is now in the peak has this sales now but when it was on its launch also had that low sales, because it's how sales curves work and why it's important to launch align to compare.
I'm just going to chop your argument down at the knees in the first paragraph.

Switch sold

21 million in FY 2019,
28.8 million in FY 2020
and is on pace to sell over 20 million again this year

PS4's best year ever in sales after 8 years on the market was 20 million.


It's not because of the "point of the cycle", Switch is just outselling Playstation and it's best years period.
 
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On Demand

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Obviously Switch has been outselling because it has been on the peak of its sales cycle while the PS ones have been in their low part of the sales cycle.

This is why launch aligned sales is the most fair way to compare sales. And if for one of them we only have its launch window we only can compare that, and the logical would be to compare it with the same period of ofther consoles. It isn't PR, it's just that you're a fanboy who doesn't accept facts.

To cherrypick a period where Switch has the sales peak every console has, while the other ones are in the low part of their sales cycle would be as dumb/fair as to say PS is killling Switch because their current consoles sold 126.5M consoles until now when Switch sold 89.04M. Or to compare years when it's a PS the one that is on its peak while the Nintendo ones are in the lower part of their sales curve without launch aligning.

Fair comparisions would be all the PS5 period vs the same launch aligned Switch period, and all Switch period vs the same launch aligned PS4 period. And if not at least to look at the whole picture looking what all both sold since the start and put it into context of in which point each one is on their sales curve.

It's dumb to say ha! ha! This console that just released has low sales compared to this one that released 3 or 4 years ago! It's obvious, one is starting so it has lower sales, after 3 or 4 years will be on its peak and will be selling a lot. And that one that is now in the peak has this sales now but when it was on its launch also had that low sales, because it's how sales curves work and why it's important to launch align to compare.

Yep yep yep yep yep yep!

Launched aligned, PS5 is selling faster than PS4 and every other console including Switch. I have no idea what nonsense people in this thread are talking about. Stop focusing on exaggeratory doom articles and look at the bigger picture.
 
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yurinka

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Yep yep yep yep yep yep!

Launched aligned, PS5 is selling faster than PS4 and every other console including Switch. I have no idea what nonsense people in this thread are talking about. Stop focusing on exaggeratory doom articles and look at the bigger picture.
Yes, that's exactly what I said. I even provided the related facts and graphs in this thread.
 
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ReBurn

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1. PS5 is selling faster than PS4 in Japan (Week 39)

PS5 953,733

PS4 773,497



2. PlayStation is the breadwinner for japanese publishers

Where's the data for the year ended March 2021? Would be interesting to see how things did during covid.
 

yurinka

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I'm just going to chop your argument down at the knees in the first paragraph.

Switch sold

21 million in FY 2019,
28.8 million in FY 2020
and is on pace to sell over 20 million again this year

PS4's best year ever in sales after 8 years on the market was 20 million.


It's not because of the "point of the cycle", Switch is just outselling Playstation and it's best years period.
Why are you failing to acknowledge that Switch is selling better over the last three year stretch than any Sony console in history?

You continue with dumb unfair cherrypicking comparision. It's like of I'd say PS4 is destroying Switch because PS4 sold 116.4M and Switch 89.04M without taking into consideration PS4 has been more years in the market.

Or to say that Nintendo was doomed in 2018 because Switch only sold less than 10M consoles during its first months while PS4 during its peak years was selling many millions. Back then Switch and WiiU(or 3DS) were in the low side of their sales curve while PS4 was leaving its peak, same that happens now in the opposite way.

Switch just passed its peak and now every year its yearly sales will decrease as happened with all the previous console. It won't be selling over 20M per year forever. Even Nintendo didn't expect that last fiscal year was going to be Switch's peak year, they (and us the ones who look at consoles sales cycles) expected to be the previous one. But the combination of the covid bump with great AC sales while the competition was in an intergenerational transition and getting fucked by chips shortage made this peak wider so it lasted for longer.
 
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Marty-McFly

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You continue with dumb unfair cherrypicking comparision. It's like of I'd say PS4 is destroying Switch because PS4 sold 116.4M and Switch 89.04M without taking into consideration PS4 has been more years in the market.

Or to say that Nintendo was doomed in 2018 because Switch only sold less than 10M consoles during its first months while PS4 during its peak years was selling many millions. Back then Switch and WiiU(or 3DS) were in the low side of their sales curve while PS4 was leaving its peak, same that happens now in the opposite way.
Seriously enough with this bullshit.

You like to quote launch aligned sales only when it suits your narrative and is completely irrelevant like launch window sales.

Let's look at the bigger picture.


 
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yurinka

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Seriously enough with this bullshit.

You like to quote launch aligned sales only when it suits your narrative and is completely irrelevant like launch window sales.

Let's look at the bigger picture.


Yes, what Daniel say is true. But this is the updated graph that included Switch getting more distance from PS4 and PS5 having a better launch window than Switch:



Sadly even if his graphs are great to compare the first months, his graphs aren't complete and they don't show the entire cycle of the consoles, so they are a bit misleading:

Because watching the entire picture you see things like Wii going down abruptly after its great start, or PS home consoles having a way longer sales curve than the Nintendo ones, which helps them to end selling more in the long run. In that graph seems DS was going to outsell PS2 by far when at the end of the race PS2 outsould DS, or that Wii was going to outsell PS1 when PS1 outold Wii at the end of the race.

But yes, they are fair to compare the launch months.
 
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Marty-McFly

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Yes, what Daniel say is true. But this is the updated graph that included Switch getting more distance from PS4 and PS5 having a better launch window than Switch:


Sadly his graphs aren't complete showing the entire cycle of the consoles. Because watching the entire picture you see things like Wii going down abruptly after its great start, or PS home consoles having a way longer sales curve than the Nintendo ones, which helps them to end selling more in the long run.
Lol my dude, Switch is on track to be the best selling platform ever about to hit 100 million,

and you're here bragging about PS5's first several months of launch sales.

I have a newsflash for you, Switch was sold out for years and the only reason PS5 is ahead in the early stages is because Sony shipped more during the holiday and Switch launched in March. That will change in a few months. Still at that, Switch is doubling PS5 in sales in the first fiscal quarter of this year.

You have a rude awakening coming if you think PS5 is going to start selling like the Switch when supply is no longer constrained.
 
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TLZ

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Lol my dude, Switch is on track to be the best selling platform ever about to hit 100 million,

and you're here bragging about PS5's first several months of launch sales.

I have a newsflash for you, Switch was sold out for years and the only reason PS5 is ahead in the early stages is because Sony shipped more during the holiday and Switch launched in March. That will change in a few months. Still at that, Switch is doubling PS5 in sales in the first fiscal quarter of this year.

You have a rude awakening coming if you think PS5 is going to start selling like the Switch when supply is no longer constrained.
I hope the moment comes when you realise, accept or admit the Switch is a portable that outputs to TV and you're doing an unfair comparison with home only consoles. You'd save us all this unnecessary warring. I hope a lot of people understand this actually.

If you want to do a fair comparison, compare it to other handhelds. Or at least, a handheld and console combined, since this is what Nintendo is trying to achieve with this thing sales-wise. They know their portables are their money makers. It doesn't need a genius to see it. Look at their sales history. It's all there.

Stop winding people up.

Give me a Nintendo non-portable, home-only console, then we can talk. Gotta compare apples to apples.
 
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Marty-McFly

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I hope the moment comes when you realise, accept or admit the Switch is a portable that outputs to TV and you're doing an unfair comparison with home only consoles. You'd save us all this unnecessary warring. I hope a lot of people understand this actually.

If you want to do a fair comparison, compare it to other handhelds. Or at least, a handheld and console combined, since this is what Nintendo is trying to achieve with this thing sales-wise. They know their portables are their money makers. It doesn't need a genius to see it. Look at their sales history. It's all there.

Stop winding people up.

Give me a Nintendo non-portable, home-only console, then we can talk. Gotta compare apples to apples.
Here comes the goal post moving right on schedule.

How about you follow up with telling us that Switch is not the same generation or something else to deflect Nintendo being the market leader.
 

Demon2blades

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Lol my dude, Switch is on track to be the best selling platform ever about to hit 100 million,

and you're here bragging about PS5's first several months of launch sales.

I have a newsflash for you, Switch was sold out for years and the only reason PS5 is ahead in the early stages is because Sony shipped more during the holiday and Switch launched in March. That will change in a few months. Still at that, Switch is doubling PS5 in sales in the first fiscal quarter of this year.

You have a rude awakening coming if you think PS5 is going to start selling like the Switch when supply is no longer constrained.
You remind me of that kenshin fella that was banned awhile back he was a right Nintendo sales nut aswell ... Of course the switch was gonna sell loads it's the perfect side console even without Japan numbers are gonna be huge world wide but the gaming market as a whole is getting bigger it wouldn't surprise me if all previous gen sales records get broken for all consoles .
 

Marty-McFly

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Oh i guess he didnt read the neogaf rules which state “anyone who says anything even slightly negative about playstation is a concern troll, sony can do no wrong and we wont tolerate it any bad news about them”
Too true, but I don't even consider the truth me saying anything bad about Sony.

They're going nuts just being presented mere facts. 😂
 
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yurinka

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Lol my dude, Switch is on track to be the best selling platform ever about to hit 100 million,

and you're here bragging about PS5's first several months of launch sales.

I have a newsflash for you, Switch was sold out for years and the only reason PS5 is ahead in the early stages is because Sony shipped more during the holiday and Switch launched in March. That will change in a few months. Still at that, Switch is doubling PS5 in sales in the first fiscal quarter of this year.

You have a rude awakening coming if you think PS5 is going to start selling like the Switch when supply is no longer constrained.
Regarding achieving the 100M mark yes, Switch is on track to beat the PS4 gaming history record of being the fastest console ever to achieve 100M even if it will continue way behind PS4 in other records like games sold for the console, subscriptions, etc.

PS5 has been outselling Switch launch aligned since launch until now. Due to the swapped Christmas I explained before once they announce the next quarter, during a quearter or two Switch will be ahead launch aligned, but once Sony announces their numbers for the end of this fiscal year if they achieve their target (and seems they will do, they claimed to secure the chips needed to do it) PS5 will go back to continue outselling Switch launch alinged after 6 quarters as it has been after the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarter.

This combined with the fact PS home consoles have a longer life than the Nintendo ones (see what I said before in my comments about the chart, you can compare also Wii and PS4 and consider PS4 already outsold Wii) looking at the sales curves paterns of each side make PS5 and not Switch the one in track to be the best selling console ever, specially considering how fast new PS5 shipments get sold out worldwide as never happened before, leading to think PS5 sales will skyrocket as soon as chip sortage get fixed. But obviously it's too soon, everything can happen in the next 10+ years or so that PS5 will pretty likely be in the market if we consider it lasts something similar to the previous PlayStations.
 
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th4tguy

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I can remember all of the negative view points the Japanese had for Xbox due to its size. The ps5 is massive and I can imagine a lot of Japanese gamers look at that compared to the switch and decide to wait for a smaller revision.
Not like the switch has any struggles with software content right now.
 
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Hobbygaming

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Too true, but I'm don't even consider the truth me saying bad about Sony.

They're going nuts just being presented mere facts.
I think you're trying to paint this picture of a dire situation for Sony when in reality they're making more money than they ever have

I would never have a Nintendo console as my only way to game but I think they make great complimentary consoles and they make great games just like Playstation
 

Marty-McFly

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Regarding achieving the 100M mark yes, Switch is on track to beat the PS4 gaming history record of being the fastest console ever to achieve 100M.

PS5 has been outselling Switch launch aligned since launch until now. Due to the swapped Christmas I explained before once they announce the next quarter, during a quearter or two Switch will be ahead launch aligned, but once Sony announces their numbers for the end of this fiscal year if they achieve their target (and seems they will do, they claimed to secure the chips needed to do it) PS5 will go back to continue outselling Switch launch alinged after 6 quarters as it has been after the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarter.

This combined with the fact PS home consoles have a longer life than the Nintendo ones (see what I said before in my comments about the chart, you can compare also Wii and PS4 and consider PS4 already outsold Wii) looking at the sales curves paterns of each side make PS5 and not Switch the one in track to be the best selling console ever. But obviously it's too soon.
Right and PS5 doesn't belong anywhere near best selling console ever status conversation until it's proven itself for years on the market like the Switch. This launch window stuff is merely PR.

I mean, do you honestly ever see it selling 28.8 million in a year like Switch when the best the PS4 could muster is 20 million?
 
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Marty-McFly

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I think you're trying to paint this picture of a dire situation for Sony when in reality they're making more money than they ever have

I would never have a Nintendo console as my only way to game but I think they make great complimentary consoles and they make great games just like Playstation
I never once said the PS5 situation is dire in this entire thread. Actually, I said I expect it to do well, but it's finished in Japan and everyone with a brain can see this.

You guys are basically attacking me for what was written by Gaming Bolt, and they made some good points, but I think calling it a "grave" concern is a bit over the top.
 
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Three

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Wow this is getting a lot of exposure. The internet is on fire regarding PS5's troublesome hardware and software sales in their native territory, and the damage it's doing to Sony worldwide.
I mean I agree that nintendo is killing it in Japan but "damage it's doing worldwide"? You're going to have to explain that one. If low sales in Japan meant "damage worldwide" wouldn't that mean xbox has been run over by a truck already? Would PS5 somehow not end up as the fastest selling console ever?

They will all be fine. You're overreacting.
 
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Marty-McFly

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I mean I agree that nintendo is killing it in Japan but "damage it's doing worldwide"? You're going to have to explain that one. If low sales in Japan meant "damage worldwide" wouldn't that mean xbox has been run over by a truck already? Would PS5 somehow not end up as the fastest selling console ever?

They will all be fine. You're overreacting.
Xbox has never been a player in Japan so bringing it up is irrelevant. Sony is literally a Japanese company and was once a force in that region.

Yes, missing out on the japanese market is damaging to its position worldwide.

In fact, if Sony had Nintendo's power in Japan they'd probably wind up being the worldwide hardware market leader or close to it.
 
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yurinka

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Right and PS5 doesn't belong anywhere near best selling console ever status conversation until it's proven itself for years on the market like the Switch. This launch window stuff is merely PR.
In this case let's say Switch doesn't belong anywhere near best selling console ever because as shown in Daniel's chart many other Nintendo consoles had a great start but later got outsold by PlayStations.

I mean, do you honestly ever see it selling 28.8 million in a year like Switch when the best the PS4 could muster is 20 million?
I think they won't be able to secure enough chips next fiscal year to achieve it, but it would be possible the next after it if the chips shortage ends in 2022. But again, going back to the sales curves: the console that had the biggest peak here was DS (higher than the Switch one btw, not sure but as I remember it was 30M), but the one that ended as the best selling one was PS2. Because as I mentioned the PS home console have a longer curve that helps them selling more once all it's done.

If Nintendo instead follows the pattern of their previous modern handhelds (and Wii If I remember correctly) they would release the Switch successor in 2 or 3 years from now and would discontinue Switch a couple of years after that or so later, lasting a total of around 8 or 9 years.



I mean I agree that nintendo is killing it in Japan but "damage it's doing worldwide"? You're going to have to explain that one. If low sales in Japan meant "damage worldwide" wouldn't that mean xbox has been run over by a truck already? Would PS5 somehow not end up as the fastest selling console ever?

They will all be fine. You're overreacting.
This is the 'damage it's doing worldwide':
-PS5 is having the best console launch worldwide any console ever had in gaming history, beating the PS4 gaming history record
-PS4 is the console that sold more games worldwide (including the boxed games that dont' appear in the rankings, and the digital ones) than any other console in gaming history
-Sony exclusives dominated the GOTY awards in the last decade
-PlayStation is generating more revenue worldwide than any other console platform holder ever did in gaming history
 
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Three

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Xbox has never been a player in Japan so bringing it up is irrelevant. Sony is literally a Japanese company and was once a force in that region.

Yes, missing out on the Japan market is damaging to its position worldwide.

In fact, if Sony had Nintendo's power in Japan they'd probably wind up being the worldwide hardware market leader or close to it.
Ok but how is that damage worldwide? If there is damage to my house I can't say there is worldwide damage because my house is part of the world.
Loss of Japan sales is loss of Japan sales. It has little effect on the worldwide market just as it hasn't for the almost non-existent xbox in Japan. They will all be fine.
 
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zedinen

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They can't compare PS5/XBS, so they're trying to use a portable console (facepalm), which accounts for 24% of consumer spend in the console industry.

I wonder what will they try when PS5 outsells NSW + XBS combined in FY22.



FY00

GB 18.86 M

PS2 9.20 M



FY01

PS2 18.07 M

GB 4.70 M



Millions of consoles unsold at the end of Q1









Consequences

 

Marty-McFly

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In this case let's say Switch doesn't belong anywhere near best selling console ever because as shown in Daniel's chart many other Nintendo consoles had a great start but later got outsold by PlayStations.


I think they won't be able to secure enough chips next fiscal year to achieve it, but it would be possible the next after it if the chips shortage ends in 2022. But again, going back to the sales curves: the console that had the biggest peak here was DS (higher than the Switch one btw, not sure but as I remember it was 30M), but the one that ended as the best selling one was PS2. Because as I mentioned the PS home console have a longer curve that helps them selling more once all it's done.

If Nintendo instead follows the pattern of their previous modern handhelds (and Wii If I remember correctly) they would release the Switch successor in 2 or 3 years from now and would discontinue Switch a couple of years after that or so later, lasting a total of around 8 or 9 years.

So what separates the PS5 and PS4 to the point where you think it could sell 8.8 million better than PS4's best year?

We know Switch is selling to an expanded market.

This seems like blind optimism to me based on launch PR.
 
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Abriael_GN

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Tales of Arise: multiplat
King of Fighters XV: multiplat
Scarlet nexus: multiplat
Final Fantasy VII Remake: ps4
The Idolmaster: multiplat and the 1st game was a xbox 360 exclusive
Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris: multiplatand on switch
Code Vein: multiplat
Guilty Gear Strive: the pc player base in japan is higher then the ps4 and ps5 audience combined and thats before the arcade port.
Oneechanbara: switch, xbox and pc
So you list about 5 multiplat games and 1 exclusive

Are you able to read what you quote or it's hard? 🤔

"There are still a ton of Japanese games that aren't launched on Switch at all" That was never a list of PS4 exclusives. It's some example of the many, many third party games the Switch doesn't get from Japan.

The point is exactly that the Japanese third-party gaming industry isn't suddenly abandoning PS for Nintendo. It's simply going more and more multiplatform because that's where the money is (and that's a very healthy trend). And for many developers, it makes a lot more sense to go PS/Xbox/PC than to spend additional money to downport to Switch. Basically, the picture painted by this "article" is pure console war clickbait bollocks.

Incidentally, you're also wrong because Oneechanbara Origin is on PS4 and PC and the series has never been on Switch.

I know reading is hard, but do try harder next time. or perhaps you're another of the "Gravely concerned?" 😂
 
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noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
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They can't compare PS5/XBS, so they're trying to use a portable console (facepalm), which accounts for 24% of consumer spend in the console industry.

I wonder what will they try when PS5 outsells NSW + XBS combined in FY22.



FY00

GB 18.86 M

PS2 9.20 M



FY01

PS2 18.07 M

GB 4.70 M



Millions of consoles unsold at the end of Q1









Consequences



Despite being 21.7% down, Switch outsold PS5/XSX combined in a slow quarter where the biggest software seller was Monster Hunter Rise(3M+) launched last Quarter & New Pokemon Snap. Compared to last year I expect next Quarter to also be down by a similar amount but for the OLED, Pokemon Remakes, Metroid, Mario Party, Wario and a slate of third party titles to ensure overall growth, especially on the software side. Hardware might end up flat but I anticipate once again dedicated forums underestimating OLED and the slate of games Nintendo have secured for the holidays and beyond.

In terms of Software despite stacking up against New Horizon's 10 million last year Software was only down 10%.
Next Quarter Software will be up YoY - Skyward Sword, Wario, MH Stories 2 a bunch of third party games vs SM3D Allstars & Paper Mario.
While the Fall is where we are looking to really accelerate things YoY, after all we are stacking it up against last year when the only notable releases were Pikmin 3 Deluxe & Age of Calamity. This year we have Pokemon Remakes, Mario Party, SMTV, Metroid - software is what moves hardware end of the day and the competing consoles have Halo and I'm not sure what's Sony's big fall game this year.

Nintendo has secured around 30 million units to be produced this fiscal year. https://screenrant.com/nintendo-make-30-million-switch-consoles-2021/
What percentage of these 30 million units are OLED? This will give you the answer as to why hardware is down as most of Nintendo's strategy for selling those 30 million units have to do with the OLED launch later in the year. That's the reason they have both 1st and 3rd Party exclusives cramped in the fall compared to last year - where for most of the year New Horizon & Ring Fit were the major hardware sellers.

Next year has Breath of the Wild Sequel, Splatoon 3 and Pokemon Legends, it's pretty certain that Switch unlike the other two console makers has the needed manufacturing capacity in place to supply 25 million units; chip shortages will continue - so it's difficult to envision PS5 managing anywhere near 25 million considering PS4 never got close to that number. So basically all you've posted is wishful thinking, we've been hearing about the Switch cliff pretty much since it launched but when you look at the actual things that sell hardware - Nintendo has an abudance of it - GAMES... next year is the software peak so the hardware might be down but not enough for PS5 to catch up.

There are things like planning when we look at these giant corporation - Switch was sold out for years because Nintendo needed time to build up the capacity in their supply chain to actually produce and ship 30 million units; as well as the confidence they would sell-out. PS5 is in a similar situation but chip shortages have only gotten worse and they are competing with not only Microsoft to scale their production. Even in a best case scenario you are looking at 24 million for Sony's next FY which would be unprecedented amount for them historically and a big risk if demand suddenly slows down. This is the main thing to consider for Sony and Microsoft it's actually better to not meet demand and be in a similar situation to the Switch for as long as possible slowly scaling up compared to their initial targets. There is a reason why you don't usually peak in the first two years and do it gradually. Forecasting and meeting internal targets is key and for Sony as long as they are ahead of PS4 and Microsoft things are good, things are even better if PS5 remains supply constrained and selling out as soon as it hits store floors for multiple years like the Switch.
 
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yurinka

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Jan 19, 2007
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So what separates the PS5 and PS4 to the point where you think it could sell 8.8 million better than PS4's best year?

We know Switch is selling to an expanded market.

This seems like blind optimism to me based on launch PR.
Many reasons:
  • Every generation the console market as a whole grows a bit
  • Early record sales beating the PS4 record of biggest amount of consoles sold after its first 3 quarters
  • PlayStation is working to expand their top IPs to PC, mobile, cinema and tv shows, so can grow here
  • Its main competitor console since launch will have all its games day one on PC and people with PC gaming won't even need to buy them, with a small game pass fee will have them. So some of these players who played on a gaming PC+an Xbox now may move to PC+PS5, can grow here
  • Sony exclusives selling better than ever in the recent years and their exclusives dominated GOTY awards for the last decade, and Sony will have a way bigger output of big exclusives during the first couple of years than MS (who will still need a year or two more to have many of the big games from the people htey have been buying), many Xbox fans can move to PS5 when upgrading to the next gen for that reason, can grow here
  • PS5 will get during the first couple of years a bigger than usual amount of great rated huge seller games (many of them exclusive), which may make people want to migrate to next gen faster
  • Sony also wants to grow in (non Japan) Asia, and the 2 top grossing PC games of the last decade worldwide (in China too) will pretty likely debut on consoles via fighthing games. One made by the EVO founders that now work with Sony, League of Legends so pretty likely will give Sony some kind of console exclusive. The other one is Dungeon Fighter Online, being developed by ARC System Works, who has a tradition of Sony console exclusives and is rumored to be acquired by Sony, so may get some kind of console exclusive too. These 2 IPs have insanely big fanbases, can grow here
  • Sony also mentioned to be interested on growing in Asia (not only in Japan) partnering with local companies both with 3rd party and 2nd party games (XDEV is hiring people for that), can grow here
  • Around 90 million MAU still on PS4 almost 8 years after launch, pretty likely many of them will upgrade when possible
  • Unprecedented demand of consoles selling out worldwide in a few minutes even if shipments are being made in gaming history records level launch aligned, so sales can explode once they solve the chips shortage issue that is blocking them to increase manufacturing beyond their currently planned numbers
  • Jimbo said PS5 has bigger player engagement than PS4, which would result on more games sold per console. And maybe more word of mouth so more consoles sold
  • PSVR2 seems that will fix most of the issues PSVR1 had, if tech specs are as good as leaks say, if it's less annoying with cables, weight etc as experience, solves dizziness issue and as it seems runs AAA games it would be more mainstream friendly if not too expensive so it would perform better than PSVR1 and could help a bit too
  • On average the over 116 million PS4 players have over a dozen games in addition to many more on their PS Plus library, since PS5 has full BC many of them will want to choose a PS5 instead of a Xbox as next gen device to keep this library
  • Many of these things combined may create a snowball effect of people getting enough reasons to buy it or to reccomend it to friends
 
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"There’s a reason that where once, smaller games would become huge on PlayStation before maybe migrating over to other systems, the opposite is happening now – there’s a reason that Hollow Knight and Hades were big on Switch before they were on any other console, and that reason is that Nintendo has created an ecosystem where developers and customers alike are likelier to have an affinity for broad, varied software across the spectrum, rather than just sticking to the next big blockbuster".

Both of those games were timed exclusives...