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February 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

jn20900

Neo Member
Nintendo Won Feb. 3DS Best-Selling Hardware for February.

I am confused though at how they can combine the whole 3ds family and say the won hardware. The new 3ds is a stronger version so in my opinion it should be separated. Media create keeps them separate i would imagine npd does the same.
 

pixelation

Member
Sony promotes single SKU
Nintendo promotes "3DS family"

Precisely... however everyone seems to be oblivious to that little nugget... the 3DS "family" as in combined sales... not just the N3DS model alone. That makes me think that the PS4 did indeed sell more than the new 3DS model.
 

NateDrake

Member
I am confused though at how they can combine the whole 3ds family and say the won hardware. The new 3ds is a stronger version so in my opinion it should be separated. Media create keeps them separate i would imagine npd does the same.

It is still a 3DS.

Precisely... however everyone seems to be oblivious to that little nugget... the 3DS "family" as in combined sales... not just the N3DS model alone. That makes me think that the PS4 did indeed sell more than the new 3DS model.
Why does that matter? The 3DS outsold the PS4 this month. That's all there is to it.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
If you see the full PR from Sony, they state "leader in cumulative hardware sales worldwide". Doesn't that clash with 3DS' installed base WW? Like, a lot?
 

Ricky_R

Member
Didn't someone in an older NPD thread claim Order pre orders were very high?

Charting at number 9 doesn't seem to back that up....

Difficult to measure since many people cancelled their orders when controversy about lenght and gameplay/cutscenes ratio started to arise.

Not to mention reviews.
 
The order 1886 charted #9 and people saying it bombed? Wtf?

For a new IP that's good. I mean... Lbp3 didn't chart and it has a good community, FH2 didn't chart and SO being a new IP like 1886 didn't either.

I didn't buy the order but I'm impressed it even charted

February typically isn't good game sales. I'm pretty sure in November, all the games that charted 600k. LBP3 wasn't AAA game either.
FH2 sort of bombed but it was helped by overseas sales (Europe is the predominant market for racing)
SO kind of bombed as well.
The Order, while better performance than SO, isn't exactly a high grade mark. it kind of seems like the game that should be over 1 million to profit
 

pixelation

Member
It is still a 3DS.


Why does that matter? The 3DS outsold the PS4 this month. That's all there is to it.

Combining sales of both HW configs though?, they're not the same model, not even the name's the same, sales shouldn't be lumped together as they are not the same. Simple as that...
 

NateDrake

Member
Combining sales of both HW configs though?, they're not the same model, not even the name's the same, sales shouldn't be lumped together as they are not the same. Simple as that...

They are the same. It isn't a new generation of handheld. It's a slightly upgraded model. The DSi was counted with the DS back in the day.
 

jn20900

Neo Member
They are the same. It isn't a new generation of handheld. It's a slightly upgraded model. The DSi was counted with the DS back in the day.

But if it can play a games that are powerful than the other one than i feel like it should. Media Create separates them which is the right thing to do. Couldn't the Ds and Dsi run all the same games? I feel like that is saying back in day you can count gameboy, gameboy color , and gameboy advance and say gameboy won a month. When the hardware is upgraded enough to the point some games can't be used on both it should be separated.
 

Paganmoon

Member
How can that be when the game under it sold 290K?

290k includes digital sales, not counted by NPD, suggesting The Order did less at retail.

Did Sunset Overdrive really not chart? That's surprising to hear

Much busier month when Sunset Overdrive released.

Infamous: SS doing around 690k at launch, for a returning franchise, compared to around 200k (guesstimate) for The Order, numberwise, might not be too bad though, but probably not near what was expected from Sony or RAD.
 
Right now Sony can either drop the price by 30 bucks or IMO just bundle a download code with every system like TLOU

I'm pretty sure they already bundle a TLoU code with every system now.

I don't get this statement...


Is this official? Pretty good month if so.


Is there something wrong with what they said? Am I missing something?

it's a pointless stat. they might as well tell us how many bullets people fired in Halo over the past month.
 

NateDrake

Member
But if it can play a games that are powerful than the other one than i feel like it should. Media Create separates them which is the right thing to do. Couldn't the Ds and Dsi run all the same games? I feel like that is saying back in day you can count gameboy, gameboy color , and gameboy advance and say gameboy won a month. When the hardware is upgraded enough to the point some games can't be used on both it should be separated.

GBA/GBA SP/GBA Micro were counted as one device. GBC was part of the original GB line. The 3DS plays all the same games as the 3DS except for one known exclusive, so far. It remains a 3DS and will be counted as a 3DS product. DSi had exclusive games for it and an exclusive eShop, but was counted as a DS device.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
So what are the excuses for The Order going to be?

- It came out on the 20th
- It was bundled (it wasn't)
- 9th isn't THAT bad
That it came out later in the month definitelly have some impact on the sales, so i'd say that this is a valid reason at least and not really an excuse in that sense. That 9th place isnt that bad is kinda subjective without knowing Sony's expectations for it. In the end, it doesnt really matter outside of these threads though. For the publisher and developer, it is the total number of sales that matters and how much money that they make or lose on something, regardless of how much it did sold in the 1st month or 2nd month etc..
 

CorySchmitz

Junior Member
I am confused though at how they can combine the whole 3ds family and say the won hardware. The new 3ds is a stronger version so in my opinion it should be separated. Media create keeps them separate i would imagine npd does the same.

But how many people bought a non-*new* 3DS last month? Seems like it would be a very small amount.
 

Welfare

Member
Oh wow I did worse in predicting total units compared to last month.

I think I'll get a better ranking this time though :)
 
Thanks for everything Aqua, I truly appreciate all the insight and all the leaks you've provided. :(

I hope everything works out and that you have a wonderful and happy life, take care. :)
 
Well...this is unfortunate.


So long, GAF. It's been a wild ride.


- Aquamarine
xunHghf.gif
s6pcLhN.gif

SHq43SF.gif

SHq43SF.gif

SHq43SF.gif

Pissed beyond words...NPD can go EAD.
 

donny2112

Member
Oh wow I did worse in predicting total units compared to last month.

I think I'll get a better ranking this time though :)

Slightly.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - February 2015

Units

1. Welfare - 159,000
2. Untalkative_Bunny - 180,000
3. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 185,000
4. Gonzo The Great - 188,000
4. Mr. Giggles - 188,000
6. RexNovis - 190,000
7. Final Verdict - 194,000
8. BlackBuzzard - 203,000
9. Brew124 - 208,000
10. Bgamer90 - 213,000
11. RespectThySole - 216,000
11. TheCarrotKiller - 216,000
13. Hammer24 - 222,000
14. Mpl90 - 223,148
15. KillerMan91 - 233,000
16. donny2112 - 235,000
17. monegames - 236,000
18. IAmRandom31 - 238,000
18. Javin98 - 238,000
18. Paxem - 238,000
18. michaelius - 238,000
22. andy_lhc - 240,000
23. WooHooAlex - 243,000
23. jjonez18 - 243,000
25. pip77 - 244,000
26. Ombala - 246,000
27. Rand6 - 248,000
27. allan-bh - 248,000
27. skedar897 - 248,000
30. theprodigy - 250,000
31. Kayant - 252,000
31. Kill3r7 - 252,000
33. archnemesis - 253,000
33. slavesnyder - 253,000
35. astrogamer - 258,000
36. jayu26 - 260,000
37. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 262,000
37. I2amza - 262,000
39. Elfstruck - 263,000
40. Cornbread78 - 268,000
41. doicare - 271,000
42. madp0k - 275,000
42. wachie - 275,000
44. Aquamarine - 276,000
44. Chobel - 276,000
44. Sterok - 276,000
47. Gbpackers31 - 278,000
47. Wildarmsjecht - 278,000
47. Zero-Crescent - 278,000
50. DrWong - 280,000
51. Bruno MB - 285,000
52. TomShoe - 286,000
53. Road - 288,000
54. MasterSheen - 294,000
55. small44 - 295,000
56. Doctor Rover - 298,000
56. Vena - 298,000
56. Xando - 298,000
59. chadskin - 300,000
59. noobie - 300,000
61. Dedication Through Light - 302,000
62. Ushay - 303,000
63. GAF_Agg - 303,400
64. Opt1kon_ - 304,000
65. Prototype Viktor - 307,000
66. Rymuth - 308,000
67. shinra-bansho - 310,000
68. Randolph Freelander - 313,000
68. orfax - 313,000
70. Muzin - 314,000
71. RamzaIsCool - 318,000
72. vinnygambini - 319,000
73. Crimson_Gold - 322,000
74. Elios83 - 323,000
74. freefornow - 323,000
76. SwiftDeath - 327,000
77. Elandyll - 328,000
77. Maxxan - 328,000
77. ascii42 - 328,000
80. jamesinclair - 330,225
81. Nictel - 331,000
82. 1st Course - 333,000
82. Kenzodielocke - 333,000
84. John Bender - 338,000
85. ConfusedGamer - 339,000
85. GamerJM - 339,000
87. Jallopy - 343,000
87. harrisk954 - 343,000
89. Ty4on - 344,000
90. CorporateClown - 346,000
91. Jamix012 - 353,000
91. Soultaker0220 - 353,000
93. prag16 - 363,000
94. Megadragon15 - 368,000
95. aaronwt - 377,000
96. Darth Smurf X - 383,000
96. mejin - 383,000
98. Lexxus - 388,000
98. Radec - 388,000
100. Duxxy3 - 393,000
100. Gamemaster_ca_2003 - 393,000
102. Asd202 - 398,000
102. Conduit - 398,000
104. TheDangerMan - 403,000
105. FATALITY - 408,000
106. Apt101 - 413,000
106. rokkerkory - 413,000
108. yukianderson - 415,000
109. Kysen - 423,000
110. DarthWalden - 428,000
110. bud23 - 428,000
112. Dodecagon - 438,000
113. RobRSG - 448,000
114. hepburn3d - 457,000
115. jroc74 - 473,000
116. perfectchaos007 - 493,000
117. Man-is-Obsolete - 503,000
118. Pachter - 520,000
119. ghost4soul - 538,000
120. GobFather - 565,000


Points
Code:
     February 2015                   Overall 2015 Top (2/2)
01.  Welfare                113.57   Welfare                203.26
02.  Final Verdict           98.98   donny2112              202.61
03.  RexNovis                98.26   astrogamer             199.48
04.  Untalkative_Bunny       97.09   Final Verdict          195.95
05.  Trust me, I'm a PhD     93.05   archnemesis            193.15
06.  Mpl90                   91.82   BlackBuzzard           192.07
07.  Mr. Giggles             91.53   RexNovis               186.27
08.  andy_lhc                91.25   madp0k                 186.24
09.  BlackBuzzard            91.22   Untalkative_Bunny      185.37
10.  RespectThySole          90.94   slavesnyder            184.87
11.  WooHooAlex              90.81   KillerMan91            184.81
12.  allan-bh                90.75   doicare                184.80
13.  Gonzo The Great         89.96   skedar897              184.63
14.  slavesnyder             89.75   allan-bh               184.53
15.  KillerMan91             89.75   RespectThySole         184.51
16.  TheCarrotKiller         89.61   Xando                  182.71
17.  Zero-Crescent           89.51   jayu26                 182.32
18.  skedar897               89.23   Javin98                182.01
19.  Bgamer90                88.97   Zero-Crescent          181.11
20.  jayu26                  88.41   Bruno MB               180.75
21.  michaelius              87.51   wachie                 180.71
22.  doicare                 87.51   Jamix012               180.64
23.  Javin98                 87.26   michaelius             180.27
24.  theprodigy              87.20   shinra-bansho          180.09
25.  Rand6                   86.60   Road                   179.99
26.  Hammer24                86.56   jjonez18               179.12
27.  astrogamer              86.49   Trust me, I'm a PhD    178.35
28.  Gbpackers31             86.34   Gbpackers31            178.29
29.  I2amza                  86.30   Aquamarine             178.11
30.  jjonez18                85.89   GamerJM                178.00
31.  monegames               85.75   Kill3r7                177.83
32.  Bruno MB                85.54   vinnygambini           176.96
33.  Sterok                  85.04   Rymuth                 176.87
34.  small44                 84.55   Crimson_Gold           176.34
35.  shinra-bansho           84.51   Chobel                 175.87
36.  Chobel                  84.31   theprodigy             175.70
37.  DrWong                  84.27   CorporateClown         175.58
38.  Aquamarine              84.10   prag16                 175.49
39.  pip77                   83.93   noobie                 174.86
40.  orfax                   83.87   Muzin                  174.64
41.  Kill3r7                 83.66   John Bender            172.99
42.  wachie                  83.24   Megadragon15           172.97
43.  Road                    82.70   Darth Smurf X          172.81
44.  TomShoe                 82.47   Apt101                 172.07
45.  donny2112               82.33   Ombala                 171.82
46.  Vena                    82.03   Maxxan                 171.77
47.  IAmRandom31             82.00   andy_lhc               171.64
48.  Rymuth                  81.94   ConfusedGamer          171.60
49.  Elfstruck               81.93   TomShoe                171.10
50.  Maxxan                  81.72   Duxxy3                 170.39

Congratulations, Welfare! :D
 

Chobel

Member
Welfare you lucky bastard! Congratulations!

My result was kinda meh, but it's not that bad and we're still in early 2015.

As always, Thanks Donny!
 

Sterok

Member
I got 44th (tied with Aquamarine :(, sad to see her go). Not too terrible for my first prediction. Everything was underestimated heavily this month.
 

donny2112

Member
Everything was underestimated heavily this month.

Some people overshot the XB1. Some people overshot the PS4. Nobody overshot the 3DS! :lol (Highest 3DS prediction was 370K.)

Edit:
Points killed me. Got #16 in units, but #45 in points. Figure it must be because I got the ordering wrong. Seem to find a way to mess that up way too often. :lol
:(
 
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