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February 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
QuixoticNeutral
Member
I've been away from this forum and missed the developments on this thread until today, but in case Aquamarine is lurking, I should hope I'm not too late to leave a salute. Thanks for making this place more colourful.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
sales GAF stop being so pessimistic. Off by 100k on PS4 and 3DS....
I overestimated so much last year I'm over compensating with under estimates.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Number 3????!!! As a representative of "Overly optimistic Gaf" I would like to thank last month's horrible outing that made this placement possible^^
Also congrats to Welfare and thanks to Donny and the Retail heroes who make these threads possible^^
Also congrats to Welfare and thanks to Donny and the Retail heroes who make these threads possible^^
theprodigy
Member
3DS: -28.35%
PS4: -26.61%
XB1: -26.81%
WIU: -28.42%
at least we suck equally on every system!
lol
wow I just was casually re-reading the thread and saw that Aquamarine post. goddamn that sucks, thank god she still has her job but damn I feel like she's going to be under suspicion there for ages and it'll be uncomfortable environment for her. I hope she can move past this. I wish NPD would just share some basic data with numbers for the hardware and the top ten at least 
There's a number of discussions where I told other users to mark my post when I was arguing The Order was going to dramatically underperform, sell less than 300k first month which is really bad for a game with a AAA budget. What's the exact number for The Order at #9, or do we not have that? A range at least?
Either way, it's clear it's not going to have any legs either given the critical lashing it's received from reviewers and gamers alike. I just hope Ready At Dawn is given the chance to get beyond this, because now they have a great engine maybe they can focus on gameplay. But as I said in the Order Review topic, my fear is that poor reviews PLUS poor sales is gonna make justification in Sony's eyes difficult. Wouldn't be surprised if Sony, who is trying to cut fat where it can, isn't as open to revisiting a big budget game with them.
There's a number of discussions where I told other users to mark my post when I was arguing The Order was going to dramatically underperform, sell less than 300k first month which is really bad for a game with a AAA budget. What's the exact number for The Order at #9, or do we not have that? A range at least?
Either way, it's clear it's not going to have any legs either given the critical lashing it's received from reviewers and gamers alike. I just hope Ready At Dawn is given the chance to get beyond this, because now they have a great engine maybe they can focus on gameplay. But as I said in the Order Review topic, my fear is that poor reviews PLUS poor sales is gonna make justification in Sony's eyes difficult. Wouldn't be surprised if Sony, who is trying to cut fat where it can, isn't as open to revisiting a big budget game with them.
KillerMan91
Member
Top 15. Solid.
wow I just was casually re-reading the thread and saw that Aquamarine post. goddamn that sucks, thank god she still has her job but damn I feel like she's going to be under suspicion there for ages and it'll be uncomfortable environment for her. I hope she can move past this. I wish NPD would just share some basic data with numbers for the hardware and the top ten at least
There's a number of discussions where I told other users to mark my post when I was arguing The Order was going to dramatically underperform, sell less than 300k first month which is really bad for a game with a AAA budget. What's the exact number for The Order at #9, or do we not have that? A range at least?
Either way, it's clear it's not going to have any legs either given the critical lashing it's received from reviewers and gamers alike. I just hope Ready At Dawn is given the chance to get beyond this, because now they have a great engine maybe they can focus on gameplay. But as I said in the Order Review topic, my fear is that poor reviews PLUS poor sales is gonna make justification in Sony's eyes difficult. Wouldn't be surprised if Sony, who is trying to cut fat where it can, isn't as open to revisiting a big budget game with them.
I'm sure RaD will be fine. Few studios have hits all the time and their overall record remains solid with Sony. Also to be blunt neither Sony nor RaD is going to want to waste that engine I'd imagine.
TBH I'm not even sure overall sales will be bad enough to kill the IP itself. Looks like it was around 150K to 180K in US for Feb (if I'm judging the more likely guesstimates in this thread right) and it very probably did better than that outside US,
It is going to tank in US - way out of top 100 on amazon - but in Europe it seems to have held better (number 29 in UK Amazon just checking).
I could see it being 500K plus WW at this point which means while it's surely disappointed it may be given another chance if RaD can convince they can improve the key and consistent areas of complaint (too little gameplay, too many QTE, too much hand holding).
Even the negative reviews praise the concept so far as I've seen. Properly handled the IP could clearly sell well; Alternative Victorian London with weapons from Tesla, Ancient Society of Knights of Round Table, Werewolves and meaty TPS mechanics is a terrific idea. It's clear to me the market wanted the thing to do well, even early on poor impressions were worded such that you sensed the desire for it to be good due to the core concept.
Personally I think RaD need to read everything damning the gameplay (and narrative) carefully, step back from how close they presumably are to the current game, and consider how they'd apply the consistent constructive criticisms? The Order could still work if RaD can produce a clear design for how they'd improve a sequel for Sony.
Or maybe Sony will just say try something else with the same engine - there's no doubt it supports terrific TPS combat as well as visceral damage and superior animation. They also have very solid bullet time variant (always popular) as well as clever mechanics (that were poorly utilized) for use of environment.
You will be upset When EU numbers come in. Sony is fortunate To have a large Worldwide install base.
Slightly.
NeoGAF Prediction Results - February 2015
...
Congratulations, Welfare!
I know I was really bad this month, but why am I not on the overall list? I'm sure my prediction was in time.
Did you miss my post?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=155238247&postcount=405
I know I was really bad this month, but why am I not in the overall list? I'm sure my prediction was in time.
Did you miss my post?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=155238247&postcount=405
It needs to be formatted like in the OP for the program to pick it up. He doesn't manually pick out all the predictions
You have to use the format stated in the OP.I know I was really bad this month, but why am I not in the overall list? I'm sure my prediction was in time.
Did you miss my post?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=155238247&postcount=405
So you should have posted it like this (ordering doesn't matter):
[3DS] 266K
[PS4] 255K
[WIU] 66K
[XB1] 225K
slavesnyder
Member
#10 overall. No clue, but happy as long as it lasts.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Can any of our retail insiders comment on pre order interest for Battlefield Hardline? With Type 0 HEAVILY leaning PS4 and Bloodborne approaching, Hardline looked to be the only big mover for XB1, but Amazon is not painting a pretty pre order picture...
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Any thoughts on Smash Wii U's performance this month? Given the numbers from Nintendo, it seems like the title may have sold another 100K? Or are they rounding a lot? I'd assume most of w/e sales would be retail as well because the game is 22GB.
Welfare
Member
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
this so many random deals by retailers are really throwing my predictions off...
Final Verdict
Member
Wow, hod no Idea I did so well (comparatively).
When I saw the sales a while back results I immediately knew that I had undershot once again.
Gratz welfare!
When I saw the sales a while back results I immediately knew that I had undershot once again.
Gratz welfare!
Nightengale
Member
Daily, so they claim.
If true then Type-0 HD must have completely bombed out on XB1 then.
Nightengale
Member
Welfare
Member
I'm going to make so many "Typo" jokes.
Yeah which is why I questioned when they do their updates.
#179 currently, #16 in XB1 games, in the hourly rankings.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
I think a vita port might have actually done better, what was SE thinking.
They couldn't sell a XV demo with a Vita version :V
I assume they are hoping for a massive increase on FFXV oherwise they might as well stop putting resources towards the XBO version of Kigndom Hearts.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
That's true but i think it would have sold on Vita without that incentive or maybe add a Saga demo. I think a split of 80+% on PS4 is really not out of the realm of possibility.
Japanese publishers will really be looking at at these sales numbers.
I'm leaning more towards 90%+ at this point. The PS4 version is 5 on the monthly
Appollowexx
Member
I think that is a strong possibility. They likely haven't even started work on the XB1 version of KH3 yet.
You're joking right? The FFXV demo has 114 pages on this forum. People are buying the game, they're just not buying the Xbox version.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
I meant instead of the Xbox One version if that was not clear. Its very obvious the PS4 version is selling really well.
How did I miss the Aqua ban/explanation.
NPD sucks a fat one. Greedy punks.
I understand not giving everything out for free, but there's a sort of tradition among gamers across the world gathering to see sales at NPD time.
Oh well
Guess I'll have a little LTTsadP by myself.
NPD sucks a fat one. Greedy punks.
I understand not giving everything out for free, but there's a sort of tradition among gamers across the world gathering to see sales at NPD time.
Oh well
Guess I'll have a little LTTsadP by myself.
michaelius
Banned
Yeah with xbox version doing around 20% even in UK then Vita version would have sold better especially in Asia and Japan.