I agree that the sequel was a disappointment for many fans...though a lot of journalists and Twitter people seemed to like it.
Now, whether they said that because they felt that, at least in their fevered and deranged minds, it was a blow for the oppressed and voiceless, only they know.
It definitely wasn't well received by the fans who loved the original and, perhaps, it was a way for them to rile those fans up and allow the scoring of cheap points against those they perceive as bigots and homophobes.
Either way, there was a disconnect between the fan reaction, and the wider "gaming community", and the mainstream activist types who pose as journalists at places like Kotaku and IGN.
My point being, it got 9s and 10s across the board, did well financially, has a huge fanbase built largely on the affection for the first game, and the work of Naughty Dog, and has a t.v show in production.
We both know any hint of a third game will generate huge interest and concrete confirmation will guarantee tons of press.
It would sell very well, I really don't think that's unfair to say...especially if it was revealed to have some genuinely interesting new gameplay mechanics, a beautiful setting, and utilising the power of the ps5.
I'm not with you on the reasons why the game underperformed and your focus on "activist types"
Did I like it as much as the 1st game? No. Did I think it was a masterpiece in gamemaking? Yes. I think my score for it was like a 7.5/10 or an 8. I thought it had problems with pacing especially, but I digress.
The fundamentals aren't there for the Last of Us. The Game sold 7 million copies on PS3 and the remaster sold 10 million copies. I think there was a lot of assumption that these were brand new players, when in reality there was a lot of overlap. I know I bought both. There aren't 17 million LOU players. There's probably closer to 10 million, maybe 12.
Ultimately, LOU2 probably sold like 5-6 million copies, which is somewhat in line with the first game, but when Uncharted 4, God of War, Horizon, and Spider-Man are all doing 15-20 million, the expectations shift for a studio that size.
LOU3 isn't going to sell 15 million copies that just isn't in the franchise DNA, unless the TV show brings in a tremendous number of new players.
We'll see how Uncharted Lost Legacy performs over the next couple months and whether the movie helped it at all, but my guess is they're done with LOU and will move on to more tentpole-type games.
It's not just a question of whether it will sell, it's a matter of opportunity cost. Naughty Dog is going to want their next big titles to sell 15-20 million copies. They're not looking to lag behind Bungie, Santa Monica, Guerrilla, and Insomniac. And now they have to keep an eye on Sucker Punch as well.