Support NeoGAF

[Northeastmonk]

There will be around 120m switch owners by the time BOTW 2 comes out

Yea, no kidding. Nintendo is going to spend millions on marketing because this is a premium game made by Nintendo.

 

[anothertech]

GTAV remake

 

[Negotiator101]

This.

Most players, fewest sales.

Don't mean that negatively, it's my most anticipated game, but I won't be buying it due to gamepass lol

It will be the biggest selling game ever on Steam that's for sure. Obviously Gamepass will take sales away but it will still sell over 20m.

 

[NeoIkaruGAF]

I’m a poor prophet, but my gut instincts say Spidey. The character stays popular through the ages, the series is currently one of the strongest in the PlayStation lineup, the previous game did very well. I think the IP has actual growth potential still, and there’s more PS5s around now.

BOTW2 seems a safe bet, but I feel that people overestimate Zelda’s potential. BOTW was the absolute outlier of the series, and it’s safe to say not a few people who tried it won’t be coming back for the sequel if there aren’t some significant gameplay changes. BOTW likely sold a good chunk of copies to people who pretty much had nothing else to play on their Switch, or to people completely new to Zelda.

I haven’t been following HP for a long time now. The Fantastic Beasts movies were pretty ho-hum, and the main series movies took a nosedive in quality after Goblet of Fire. I have no idea how strong the IP still is these days, so I can’t fathom how well the game could do.

Starfield? Not interested in the game, no idea how it’ll do.

One thing is sure, sales threads for these four games will be pure fire.

 

[TheGodfather07]

It could be close between botw2 and spider-man 2 but I'll give the edge to zelda because there's never any real 3rd party competition on switch. You buy Nintendo systems for Nintendo games.

 

[remember_spinal]

I’m a poor prophet, but my gut instincts say Spidey. The character stays popular through the ages, the series is currently one of the strongest in the PlayStation lineup, the previous game did very well. I think the IP has actual growth potential still, and there’s more PS5s around now.

BOTW2 seems a safe bet, but I feel that people overestimate Zelda’s potential. BOTW was the absolute outlier of the series, and it’s safe to say not a few people who tried it won’t be coming back for the sequel if there aren’t some significant gameplay changes. BOTW likely sold a good chunk of copies to people who pretty much had nothing else to play on their Switch, or to people completely new to Zelda.

I haven’t been following HP for a long time now. The Fantastic Beasts movies were pretty ho-hum, and the main series movies took a nosedive in quality after Goblet of Fire. I have no idea how strong the IP still is these days, so I can’t fathom how well the game could do.

Starfield? Not interested in the game, no idea how it’ll do.

One thing is sure, sales threads for these four games will be pure fire.

I think the IP i still pretty huge. I think it took a hit with the JK Rowling controversy and the movies because of Johnny Depps involvement at the time. Also, I dont think a lot of people in general associate Harry Potter with Fantastic Beast.

I think people want Harry Potter for Hogwarts, and the mystery and coming of age themes, quidditch, etc Fantastic Beast just felt like an aimless spinoff with some fan service thrown in.

 

[Elysion]

If BotW 2 is a launch title for the Switch 2 next year (alongside the regular Switch version), then it has good chances to be the best selling game of 2023. If there‘s no Switch 2 next year, and BotW is Switch only, then I predict that it will sell less than the first game.

Direct sequels to big Nintendo games usually sell less than the first game on the same system. I have no doubt that a Mario Odyssey 2 would also sell less than Odyssey 1 if it came out on Switch. Same with a new Mario Kart etc. Most people are fine with only buying one game for each big Nintendo IP per generation.

 

[Shiny Pepe]

Hogwarts Legacy Reveal Trailer 29 mil. views/ 783k likes
Spiderman 2 Reveal Trailer 24 mil. views/ 835k likes
BOTW First Look Trailer 14 mil. views/ 425k likes
Starfield Teaser Trailer 17 mil. views/ 77k likes lol

Starfield is definetly overhyped.

 

[STARSBarry]

I'm going to gamble here, I think Harry Potter has a chance, but the issue is it needs to be good and we don't know that yet while BotW 2 is just a derivative of BoTW and if there's one thing Nintendo don't screw up it's making the exact same game again, so it's an easy win.

Essentially if Harry Potter is good it's going to dominate... if not well... yeah easy BotW victory, but picking that is for boring risk adverse loses, go go Harry Potter vote.

 

[Robb]

I feel I must have missed something with the Harry Pottter game because I didn’t even consider it being in competition with the rest of the list.

Why would this game sell insane amounts all of a sudden? It’s not like Lego Harry Potter or any previous Harry Potter games have set the world on fire, despite being on every system available (?).

What’s the best selling Harry Potter game to date?

 

[mansoor1980]

spider-man 2

 

[DavidGzz]

Spiderman sold to what, 20% of PS4 owners? What is 20% of PS5 owners? Let's say people are hungrier for a sequel at this point and it sells to 30% of them, that's still low(6 million?) compared to the potential sales of the other games with a MUCH higher install base. When it comes to PC, and when Sony can produce more PS5s it will be another story but I don't see the game having as much support as Hogwart's or Starfield into the future(updates, expansions, etc,) so I doubt it will have the legs. I choose BoTW2 winning initially and Starfield in 10 years.

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

Botw2.
Spider-Man 2 if the pc release doesn't take 4 years.

 

[dezzy8]

I would say starfield but a long shot if it doesn’t end up on gamepass day one.

 

[Chukhopops]

it will get boosted by Across the Spider-verse movies

It’s possible, maybe I’m biased against Spider-Man because I find it boring and bland compared to the other ones.

Another factor to consider is that BotW 2 is not likely to be discounted more than 30% for years, while the others will be half price six months after launch.

 

[Gameplay Gods Bless]

So far, the biggest 2023 titles we know of which do you think will be the sales king?

• Hogwarts Harry Potter might be in contention with Spider-man (marvel) for biggest IP, The advantage is its on all major platforms even switch
• Breath of The Wild, it’s Nintendo, it’s Zelda, coming off 28m copies sold, although this one isn’t releasing on new hardware
• Spider-Man 2, Sonys biggest game and probably the most popular superhero IP today, can it do better than 2018 at over 20m?
• Starfield, biggest single player xbox exclusive and next big Todd Howard original IP, can it live up to Skyrims whopping 30M+ game sales?

Botw will stomp now that there are far more Switches in the wild than in 2017. Spiderman will do great but it won't beat BOTW even it turns out to be a cross gen title. Starfield has Gamepass taking some of it's sales and Harry Potter has never had an AAA of this scale before so it's sales are an unknown, not only it's sales but it's quality as a game as well.

 

[Gameplay Gods Bless]

I would say starfield but a long shot if it doesn’t end up on gamepass day one.

It's coming to Gamepass day one that was announced ages ago when MS said all it's 1st party titles will arrive day one on Gamepass.

 

[IDKFA]

If we're talking actual sales, as in physical and digital purchases, then surly Starfield would be bottom of the pile? Most people will play it with their Ganepass sub.

Out of all the rest, I'd probably go with Hogwarts. It's on a lot of platforms and Harry Potter is still a massive IP, regardless of JK Rowling's views.

 

[Dolodolo]

Probably will be less than 35 million sales by end of 2023. No chance.

Why are you talking nonsense?
Well, at least read the news there, the latest
Even at the last financial report, Sony said that the forecast would not change, and by April 1, 23, it would ship 18 million consoles.
Given that they already had about 20 after April 1, 22, then by the end of 23 there will already be about 50 million

Why does this have to be explained all the time?

 

[KungFucius]

Not Stanfield because gamepass but it will be the most played for years and would absolutely sell the most if uou needed to buy to play. If Hogwarts is great it has a chance but it might not be amazing enough ti become a phenomenon. Spider-Man 2 may eventually hit a lot of sales as the PS5 ages and it releases on PC, but BoTW will likely sell the most in 2023.

I will be playing all of these games, though Hogwarts may be played by my kid first and is close enough to GoW that it may be played in 2023.

 

[Jim Ryan other Clone]

Hogwarts most likely since its on the most platforms. Starfield is on second most platforms so it should be second. Most interesting is botw sequel vs spider-man 2.

Starfield is on Xbox and PC. The biggest sales are always at one console and it's called switch. Or you think that the Skyrim 30 million copies are because of PC users and couple Xbox copies?
The battle will be between Hogwarts and the Hirule.
Spiderboy with be playing Picknick with the alliens for the first couple years.

 

[RJMacready73]

I dunno man, there's like a 100 or so people/furries/they/them over at Reeeeee really angry at JK Rowling so it could affect sales of Hogwarts... Just saying like

 

[reksveks]

Harry Potter is big but correct me if I am wrong but the Niantic game didn't really catch on fire and the new fantastic beast movies were underwhelming in terms of box office takes.

 

[Hugare]

Spidermam 2 and Starfield will be next gen only, so proably not these two

BOTW 2 then.

But Hogwarts Legacy will sell like 10M +

 

[BLAUcopter]

Hogwarts will fail because Rowling is a transphobe

 

[GymWolf]

Starfield of course.

 

[//DEVIL//]

I mean it’s really simple
BOTW2 no questions asked
Spider man 2 second
Starfield 3 but because of game pass MS will claim it’s the fastest player count in the history of fame psd with x million players day one that will be higher than spider man

And … who ? Why that game in the list even ?

 

[kraspkibble]

1. BOTW2
2. Starfield
3. Hogwarts
4. Spider Man

 

[AmuroChan]

I think Spider 2 (if including future PC sales). If not, then BOTW 2.

 

[kraspkibble]

 

[AmuroChan]

The Harry Potter mass appeal is not as high as Spidey's right now. The most recent Fantastic Beasts movie made $400m worldwide, which for a HP movie is a commercial bomb. Spider-Man: No Way Home made $2B worldwide.

Also, don't forget that a lot of mainstream outlets won't even cover Hogwarts Legacy because of JK Rowling. And you know that when the game comes out, there will be op-eds written about how anyone who plays Hogwarts Legacy are transphobes.

 

[Topher]

BoTW 2 will outsell Spider-man 2 out of the gate just due to the number of Switch units out there versus PS5. Once Spider-man 2 hits PC, however, I think it will overtake BoTW 2 in the long run.

Starfield is a bit of a wild card since it is new IP. Same for Hogwarts.

 

[Kokoloko85]

Spiderman 2 probably. Spiderman 1 has sold 33 million units since September 2018.
With the recent movies being successful and Across the Spider verse coming in Summer 2023, Spiderman 2 is gonna sell huge.

Zelda normally struggles to sell more than 10million and even if it sells like BOTW it would get to 30million probably with great reviews but I have a feeling it won’t sell the same, maybe a bit less.

Bethesda at their very best with Skyrim, selling on multiple consoles and multiple generations sold 30million.
So consider Fallout 4 sold 13million and Starfield is a new IP, it has to review really really well. And its only selling on Xbox and Steam, I doubt it will reach Fallout 4 numbers especially with Gamepass.

Im not sure how much Harry potter could sell. With great reviews it could spark a change in the industry and sell 10’s of millions if Potter fans get involved. Who knows.

Going by previous games

Zelda BOTW - Released March 2017 ——- 26.5 million sales
Spiderman Released in September 2018 — 33 million sales
Fallout 4 - Released 10th November 2015 - 13.5 Million sales
Fallout 76- Released October 2018 ———- 2.4 million sales


My prediction:
Spiderman 2
Zelda BOTW 2
Harry Potter
Starfield

But Harry Potter has the potential to sell more than all of them if its a good game

 

[01011001]

Hogwarts



Botw- switch only
Starfield- series x/s and pc
Spiderman 2- ps5 only
Hogwarts-ps4, ps5, xbox one, series s/x, switch, pc

Starfield is coming to game pass day one so it won't even come close to the other ones

Forza Horizon 5 was gamepass day 1, yet it sold 10 million copies within 3 days

 

[Jennings]

Starfield sales numbers will be diminished due to the unrivaled power of Xbox Gamepass.

Harry Potter was popular with Millenials, but a video game about these kids seems lame. Not sure why people would buy this other than nostalgia, I doubt actual gameplay will move units.

BotW2 should do okay, but it's not on PC or PS5 so that's a huge market unable to buy and play.

Spider-Man 2 is probably just more of the same and Miles Morales is still too recent to generate much more interest in a third Spider-Man game.

I don't know which one to choose, they all seem destined to fail on the sales front.

 

[AmuroChan]

Forza Horizon 5 was gamepass day 1, yet it sold 10 million copies within 3 days

No it didn't. It had 10 million players within 3 days. That includes Gamepass.

Forza Horizon 5 crosses 10 million players as the largest Xbox Game Pass launch ever

Forza Horizon 5 is unbelievably massive, with over 10 million players already.

www.windowscentral.com

Forza Horizon 5 has over 10 million players

Microsoft has announced Forza Horizon 5 has over 10 million players and it amassed this figure its first week of availa…

www.vg247.com

 

[01011001]

No it didn't. It had 10 million players within 3 days. That includes Gamepass.

http://[URL][URL][URL]https://www.windowscentral.com/forza-horizon-5-10-million-players

[/URL][/URL][/URL]

http://[URL][URL][URL]https://www.vg247.com/forza-horizon-5-over-10-million-players

[/URL][/URL][/URL]

the gamepass version was not out for another week. you literally had to buy the premium edition to get access to this specific early launch date.

meaning not only did it have 10 million players within 3 days... these 10 million players also played the more expensive version of the game that includes DLC passes.

noone in that 10 million player count was able to play through gamepass as that version arrived a full week later

 

[AmuroChan]

the gamepass version was not out for another week. you literally had to buy the premium edition to get access to this specific early launch date.

meaning not only did it have 10 million players within 3 days... these 10 million players also played the more expensive version of the game that includes DLC passes.

noone in that 10 million player count was able to play through gamepass as that version arrived a full week later

Incorrect. The 10 million is from the week of official release, not the pre-release. The pre-release had 1 million players. 10 million includes Gamepass.

In-game stats reveal that Forza Horizon 5 has over 1 million players ahead of its official release tomorrow.

 

[Andodalf]

Year 1
BOTW
Year 2
Spider-man
Year 10
Starfield (only not actually because gamepass, but the most people will have played it by far)

 

[vaibhavpisal]

Spiderman will sell the most due to bundles. (There I said it, lul)

Zelda won't be as successful as first part but still will reach 20 million.

Starfield will cross 10 million. Some crazies will buy it despite gamepass. It will increase gamepass subscriber count by 2 million instead, due to its launch.

Hogwards will be lucky to reach 10 million. There are Harry Potter fans out there but not necessarily will they buy the game. It will sell mostly to regular gamers who are fans only. Still pretty successful.

These are my predictions.

 

[Alandring]

This is a really interesting question.

In my opinion, Breath of the Wild 2 will be the best selling game LTD, but since we only count 2023 sales, I think it will do worse than the 3 other games.

Then, since we only count 2023 sales, I think we should look at release dates. February for Hogwarts Legacy, "Spring" for Starfield and we don't know for Spider-Man 2, but September would be logical.

I think Spider-Man 2 will have the biggest launch of the year, just behind Starfield, but the few more months will help Hogwarts Legacy to become first.

 

[Roberts]

Holy shit, I just realised that I don't really care.

I think Starfield and BOTW2 will be successful no matter what. My own severe superhero fatigue is clouding my judgement, but if you look at the numbers that last Spider-Man movie made in theatres, it is clear that the game will be a huge success despite the limited amount of Ps5 sold.

Not so sure about HP game. Yes, it is multiplatform and has an enormous fan base, but it really depends on reviews and word of mouth. Not sure it will sell all that well if it turns out to be a badly designed, janky mess.

 

[Kamina]

One of the choices is a Zelda, the other ones are not.

 

[remember_spinal]

Spiderman sold to what, 20% of PS4 owners? What is 20% of PS5 owners? Let's say people are hungrier for a sequel at this point and it sells to 30% of them, that's still low(6 million?) compared to the potential sales of the other games with a MUCH higher install base. When it comes to PC, and when Sony can produce more PS5s it will be another story but I don't see the game having as much support as Hogwart's or Starfield into the future(updates, expansions, etc,) so I doubt it will have the legs. I choose BoTW2 winning initially and Starfield in 10 years.

The install base doesn’t always matter. The amount of people that bought spider-man before are probably amongst the enthusiast crowd that needed to have a ps5 by now, despite the stock issues and higher price compared to the 300 dollar ps4 when spiderman 2018 came out.

The casual crowd that eventually ended up playing spider-man on deeper sales, bundles, with ps plus, etc. a lot of those people are still probably on ps4 playing warzone and 2k

 

[remember_spinal]

I dunno man, there's like a 100 or so people/furries/they/them over at Reeeeee really angry at JK Rowling so it could affect sales of Hogwarts... Just saying like

They are only surface level and performative angry as they are with most things. Look at the cyberpunk thread, it blew up once they were allowed to have an OT. The same thing will happen with Harry Potter, there might be a small number of people that actually don’t play the game because they disagree with Rowlings politics.

 

[The artful mincer]

If Hogwarts legacy reviews well I think it could be absolutely colossal.

Like biggest full price game not named gta big.

It's original trailer has 29 million views more than any other game on playstations YouTube channel.

The Harry Potter franchise is huge and I think a big chunk of them aren't gamers which it has the potential to bring into gaming.

The other 3 games will all be huge but not to the same level not to mention they will be constrained to one platform.

Of course if Harry Potter is shit then all that goes out the window.

 

[NahaNago]

I'm thinking that breath of the wild will sell the most. The other three are up in the air for me as who will be in second. Hogwarts can do really well if the marketing is great and could possibly surpass spiderman 2. Starfield is complicated. Like first of all it should be on gamepass so that will pretty much destroys sales for that game and even if it wasn't it wouldn't be on PlayStation and I just don't think it could surpass spiderman 2 or breath of the wild without PlayStation sales.

 

[Three]

I predict BoTW has the higher sales figure, Spiderman will be second and Starfield will boast about 'number of players'.

 

[prinz_valium]

That year? Lifetime? Units? $ sales?
Starfield has a chance to capture some of the markets the other games probably wont.
But that game is on Game Pass, so less sales.

BOTW will do 20m+ lifetime for sure. I bet on that one.

 

[Heimdall_Xtreme]

Im going to support BOTW 2, Hogwarts Legacy and Maybe Spiderman 2 ( only if is Peter parker... I hate Miles Morales)