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[Jaybe]

the gamepass version was not out for another week. you literally had to buy the premium edition to get access to this specific early launch date.

meaning not only did it have 10 million players within 3 days... these 10 million players also played the more expensive version of the game that includes DLC passes.

noone in that 10 million player count was able to play through gamepass as that version arrived a full week later

You are so incredibly wrong. Only 1.2 million players of the FH5 Ultimate edition were recorded prior to launch. Please don’t confuse sales vs players, you’re falling into Xbox’s PR trap.

Before the game's release on 9 November, over 1.2 million players had accessed the game by buying either the premium edition of the game or the premium add-ons bundle as an Xbox Game Passsubscriber, with Video Game Chronicle estimating gross revenue between $54 million and $118 million before release.[46] The game also reached #1 on the Steam weekly charts for the week of 1 to 7 November 2021.[47] Phil Spencer, head of Xbox, announced on 9 November that more than 4.5 million people have played the game in less than 24 hours after launch, the largest launch for an Xbox Game Studios game, while it also held three times more concurrent players than Forza Horizon 4.[48]On 18 November, the official Forza Horizon Twitteraccount announced that over ten million people have played the game during its first week of release, the largest amount of players for a game's first week in the Xbox brand's history.[49][50] Writing for Forbes, Erik Kain attributes the game's success to its at-launch availability on Xbox Game Pass, cross-platform play between Xbox One, Xbox Series X/S, and PC, its cloud gaming support via Xbox Cloud Gaming, and the high quality of the game itself.[50] On 9 January 2022, two months after its release, the game passed the 15 million player mark, breaking the record for the previous game in the series in less than a year since it was released.[51]The game attracted more than 20 million players seven months after its initial release.[52]

 

[Oof85]

I feel I must have missed something with the Harry Pottter game because I didn’t even consider it being in competition with the rest of the list.

Why would this game sell insane amounts all of a sudden? It’s not like Lego Harry Potter or any previous Harry Potter games have set the world on fire, despite being on every system available (?).

What’s the best selling Harry Potter game to date?

My thoughts exactly.

This game is less Harry more World of Wizarding so it can definitely surprise but as of yet the fanbase of the books/films hasn't translated into the game side of things.

If the spell creation/character creation is deep though, expect fireworks

 

[Oof85]

Spiderman 2 probably. Spiderman 1 has sold 33 million units since September 2018.
With the recent movies being successful and Across the Spider verse coming in Summer 2023, Spiderman 2 is gonna sell huge.

Zelda normally struggles to sell more than 10million and even if it sells like BOTW it would get to 30million probably with great reviews but I have a feeling it won’t sell the same, maybe a bit less.

Bethesda at their very best with Skyrim, selling on multiple consoles and multiple generations sold 30million.
So consider Fallout 4 sold 13million and Starfield is a new IP, it has to review really really well. And its only selling on Xbox and Steam, I doubt it will reach Fallout 4 numbers especially with Gamepass.

Im not sure how much Harry potter could sell. With great reviews it could spark a change in the industry and sell 10’s of millions if Potter fans get involved. Who knows.

Going by previous games

Zelda BOTW - Released March 2017 ——- 26.5 million sales
Spiderman Released in September 2018 — 33 million sales
Fallout 4 - Released 10th November 2015 - 13.5 Million sales
Fallout 76- Released October 2018 ———- 2.4 million sales


My prediction:
Spiderman 2
Zelda BOTW 2
Harry Potter
Starfield

But Harry Potter has the potential to sell more than all of them if its a good game

No Spiderman game has sold 33 million units. That's the entire series so far by Insomniac studios so Spiderman and then Miles Morales.

 

[Jimmyisback]

Why would we talk about players? Only one of those games are being offered on a service

The whole premise is kind of stupid though seeing how Starfield is coming day one on game pass.

 

[remember_spinal]

The whole premise is kind of stupid though seeing how Starfield is coming day one on game pass.

Its still being sold retail and digital

 

[remember_spinal]

Spiderman will sell the most due to bundles. (There I said it, lul)

I don’t think you realize how often BoTW was bundled

 

[adamsapple]

Spiderman 2 probably. Spiderman 1 has sold 33 million units since September 2018.

Spider Man hasn't. Spider Man and Miles Morales combined have.

Bethesda at their very best with Skyrim, selling on multiple consoles and multiple generations sold 30million.

The last time Skyrim sales were reported at 30 million was back in 2016.

2016 was 6+ years ago.

The game has had an anniversary release, PS4 Pro, Xbox One X editions, PS5, SX, Switch release etc since then.

It is very likely way beyond 30 million right now, just not reported since then.

 

[Tiamat2san]

I think they will all sell well.
But BOTW2 will crush everything

 

[Captain Toad]

I think they will all sell well.
But BOTW2 will crush everything

More than Spider-Man? Nah.

 

[Dr.Morris79]

If you voted anything other than Starfield then you're fooling yourself.

 

[Oof85]

More than Spider-Man? Nah.

Botw alone is approaching the sales of the entire Insomniac Spiderman franchise.

I expect Sp2 to do well, but I would be surprised if it outdoes Botw2.

 

[Kokoloko85]

Spider Man hasn't. Spider Man and Miles Morales combined have.



The last time Skyrim sales were reported at 30 million was back in 2016.

2016 was 6+ years ago.

The game has had an anniversary release, PS4 Pro, Xbox One X editions, PS5, SX, Switch release etc since then.

It is very likely way beyond 30 million right now, just not reported since then.

Then in that case probably BOTW 2 but it will be close. I think Spiderman 2 might still take it.

Considering how the last Fallout sells compared to Elder Scrolls, I doubt Starfield reaches those numbers unless it reviews really great, would be surprised.
I couldn’t find any numbers since then but I wonder how much Skyrim it has sold since 2016

 

[adamsapple]

I can't find any Skyrim sales reporting since 2016 either, it's bizarre Bethesda hasn't done a single mention of it in the last 6 years lol.

Starfield will probably have the least units sold of the games in the poll, but have the most active players playing it.

 

[remember_spinal]

Then in that case probably BOTW 2 but it will be close. I think Spiderman 2 might still take it.

Considering how the last Fallout sells compared to Elder Scrolls, I doubt Starfield reaches those numbers unless it reviews really great, would be surprised.
I couldn’t find any numbers since then but I wonder how much Skyrim it has sold since 2016

Skyrim is really the outlier for Bethesda. Fallout 4 did about 14m, which is still on the high end for fallout games and oblivion did way less.

The next bethesda game will be on two less platforms than fallout 4 at launch.

 

[phil_t98]

if anybody thinks Starfield will then its plain silly. Starfield will up gamepads numbers a lot when it comes out.

 

[Kokoloko85]

Botw alone is approaching the sales of the entire Insomniac Spiderman franchise.

I expect Sp2 to do well, but I would be surprised if it outdoes Botw2.

Aren’t BOTW sales around 26-27 million?
Hasnt Spiderman series sold total of 33M with Miles Morales around 6-7million?

Spiderman 1 and BOTW are pretty similar i think in sales? Even though BOTW has been out longer

 

[Warnen]

Harry Potter game for sure cause it’s on almost everything. Spider man 2 last on list unless it gets a pc/ps4 port.

 

[vj27]

I know people that buy like 3 games for their switch and botw is usually one of them. Same with other Nintendo consoles. I’d say starfield/Spider-Man next. Either or.

 

[prinz_valium]

Spider Man hasn't. Spider Man and Miles Morales combined have.



The last time Skyrim sales were reported at 30 million was back in 2016.

2016 was 6+ years ago.

The game has had an anniversary release, PS4 Pro, Xbox One X editions, PS5, SX, Switch release etc since then.

It is very likely way beyond 30 million right now, just not reported since then.

Will probably sell 50m units when all is set and done

 

[[Sigma]]

Breath of The Wild 2. More switches out. Audience more engaged.

 

[Captain Toad]

Botw alone is approaching the sales of the entire Insomniac Spiderman franchise.

I expect Sp2 to do well, but I would be surprised if it outdoes Botw2.

I'd take that wager.

And the "entirety of Insomniac Spider-Man". All one and a half games?

 

[ahtlas7]

My money is on Hogfarts as it transcends demographic ruts.

 

[CaptainSlayAHo]

Forza Horizon 5 was gamepass day 1, yet it sold 10 million copies within 3 days

It had 10 million PLAYERS, not sales

 

[SmokedMeat]

BotW2, because the reason to own a Switch is for Nintendo’s games, and Nintendo players will drop $60 day one because good sales don’t exist on Switch. No point in waiting for a price drop that will never happen.

 

[Crayon]

I picked Botw2 because it will be playable on both switch 1 and 2 and the attach rate will be big. I'm crap at sales stuff, tho.

 

[Sw0pDiller]

Starfield wil sell about 10 copies, the rest will play this on GP. So botw2 off course, all those Zelda fans hungry for a decent game on the switch. The game will sell 30m+

 

[Pallas]

I dont think its a lock for zelda. Breath of the Wild is an outlier of the series and this one isn’t launching with new Hardware. Its the only game in the series that sold more than 16m copies

Well that also works in their favor. People loved BOtW. I think a sequel in the same manner can potentially sell just as well. There hadn’t been a Zelda like this, so while it’s not a lock for sure, I feel like it’s trending that way but we will see,

All four of those games are gonna be pretty good though I feel.

 

[Evil Calvin]

Starfield will be on Gamepass so.....not as many sales as normally would be....but millions playing it
Spider-man 2 will sell a lot but many may have Spider-man fatigue after SM:MM. BUT not a lot coming out on PS5 soo.....it will sell a lot
BOTW2 will sell a ton. Just like SM2 there aren't a lot of AAA games on Switch except for Xenoblade 3 and the usual Pokemon rehash.
Hogwarts......most have moved on from that series. But is multiplatform....(I think)....so likely will sell well.

But BOTW wins on outright sales (100 million + Switches out there).

Personally I'm most curious for Starfield and will play it ...as it's a new IP unlike the others.

 

[remember_spinal]

Starfield will be on Gamepass so.....not as many sales as normally would be....but millions playing it
Spider-man 2 will sell a lot but many may have Spider-man fatigue after SM:MM. BUT not a lot coming out on PS5 soo.....it will sell a lot
BOTW2 will sell a ton. Just like SM2 there aren't a lot of AAA games on Switch except for Xenoblade 3 and the usual Pokemon rehash.
Hogwarts......most have moved on from that series. But is multiplatform....(I think)....so likely will sell well.

But BOTW wins on outright sales (100 million + Switches out there).

Personally I'm most curious for Starfield and will play it ...as it's a new IP unlike the others.

Harry Potter is more of a new IP than starfield is. Starfield is gonna borrow heavily from fallout/skyrim while Harry Potter open world game is being built from the ground up.

The IP itself is not new but this particular game series is the most fresh on the list as far as new mechanics

 

[ACESHIGH]

Right off the bat: BOTW2

Down the line: Starfield

 

[Yoboman]

Hogwarts Legacy Reveal Trailer 29 mil. views/ 783k likes
Spiderman 2 Reveal Trailer 24 mil. views/ 835k likes
BOTW First Look Trailer 14 mil. views/ 425k likes
Starfield Teaser Trailer 17 mil. views/ 77k likes lol

Starfield is definetly overhyped.

Or the Starfield Gameplay reveal only having 3 million views compared to 10 million for Hogwarts

 

[EddieVanHelgen]

Short term, Hogwarts. Long term BOTW 2.

 

[The artful mincer]

Well this thread probably won't age well!!!

 

[mrmustard]

That's a tough one.

- Hogwarts sells lile crazy, but does it have legs?
- Spider-Man is a moneyprinting franchise and would even sell without marketing, but with Sony investing again 100m+ Dollars it will sell 20M+
- BOTW did 30m as a release game, so with 100m Switch out there it could do much more
- Starfield is on Game Pass, but if it's good it will have legs and can do 10-15m

I say Zelda>Hogwarts>Spider-Man>Starfield

 

[Snake29]

1. Hogwarts
2. Spiderman 2
3. Zelda
4. Starfield

 

[The artful mincer]

Frankly I think you would be mad not to choose Hogwarts Legacy at this point it's doing COD numbers

 

[Griffon]

For 2023 only I can see Hogwarts on top.

Longer terms? It changes if/when the Switch 2 releases next year with an enhanced edition of TotK.

edit: old thread eh...

 

[Flabagast]

Some people still think it won't be Hogwarts Legacy ? ..

Who are they ? What school did they go to so I make sure my kids never ever go there ?

 

[The artful mincer]

The "LEGS" argument for Zelda is getting comical at this point. Hogwarts Legacy has already outsold Elden ring in the UK.

That game globally is at 20+ million. So Hogwarts Legacy might be close to or beyond that TODAY!

If it keeps on selling like it is it might overtake breath of will 1 by the end of year! That's not evening considering the last gen versions releasing.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

Unless I misunderstood, but how many people on the XBOX or maybe even the PC will purchase Starfield when you can get it on Gamepass day one?

 

[3liteDragon]

Hogwarts is gonna be #1 this year lol, no question about it anymore. It’s the #2 spot that’s gonna be interesting to see.

 

[TheGodfather07]

Yeah hogwarts will sell the most easily. Even massive exclusives have a ceiling of 25 to 30 million because they are only on 1 or 2 systems at most. Look at botw, mario, gow, spiderman. None of them have yet to pass 30m. Hogwarts will though.