Jaybe
Member
Starfield can’t be pre-ordered yet by the way, not that I’ve seen.
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What do you think will sell more Hogwarts Legacy, Starfield, Spider-man 2 or Breath of The wild?
- Thread starter remember_spinal
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- Business Analysis
ShaquilleOatmeal
Member
My mind tells me BotW2, but my HEART says Spider-Man 2 goes fucking nuts.
Deputy Moonman
Member
No idea. I went with BotW2, but let's revisit this thread in 5 years lol.
Stuart360
Member
I would of said Starfield bya a country mile, but with Gamepass you just never know. I'm still going to pick Starfield as i assume we are talking lifetime sales here, and i would expect Starfield to eventually hit 30-40mil, and i'm not sure the others will.
Having said that, with the way Switch games sell, BOTW2 could very well hit 30+mil lifetime sales.
Having said that, with the way Switch games sell, BOTW2 could very well hit 30+mil lifetime sales.
Belthazar
Member
It'll probably be between Spider-Man 2 and BOTW 2 (But BOTW2 will have a bigger chance of coming out on top if the next switch doesn't have Backwards compatibility). Then comes Starfield and Hogwarts Legacy, but I honestly don't know which will sell more between the two... I can see Hogwarts selling more for the release year and Starfield selling more LTD.
Saber
Gold Member
I voted for Hogwarts Legacy.
- There isn't a Harry Potter game at that scale, let alone a single player game like this one in ages
- Possibility of choosing your house instead of being a direct Harry Potter game(meaning only playing as Harry Potter itself)
- Multiplataform
- There isn't a Harry Potter game at that scale, let alone a single player game like this one in ages
- Possibility of choosing your house instead of being a direct Harry Potter game(meaning only playing as Harry Potter itself)
- Multiplataform
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Oof85
Member
If Starfield wasn't a gamepass title it'd easily take the lead followed by Zelda but it is, so I expect that to eat into the unit sales.
Zelda followed by Starfield, then Hogwartz and lastly Spiderman.
Hogwartz is the wildcard here though as all the other Harry Potter games have made mid sales but this one can be the combo breaker.
Either way imo Zelda will be first or second, while Spiderman squarely third.
Zelda followed by Starfield, then Hogwartz and lastly Spiderman.
Hogwartz is the wildcard here though as all the other Harry Potter games have made mid sales but this one can be the combo breaker.
Either way imo Zelda will be first or second, while Spiderman squarely third.
Robbinhood
Banned
Spiderman 2 would need a 1:1 tie in ratio. If PS5 didnt have stock issues it might have reached like 60-70 million consoles by the time SM2 launched but get got absolutely devastated by covid. Probably will be less than 35 million sales by end of 2023. No chance.
Botw2 will get 25 million sold cause Nintendo created a system where people buy anything they make.
Hogwarts it depends on how it reviews, could be like 12 mil, could be 30. I doubt it though, my guess is 15 million lifetime.
Starfield is on Gamepass so probably like 15 million to 20 million.
Botw2 will get 25 million sold cause Nintendo created a system where people buy anything they make.
Hogwarts it depends on how it reviews, could be like 12 mil, could be 30. I doubt it though, my guess is 15 million lifetime.
Starfield is on Gamepass so probably like 15 million to 20 million.
Dr. Wilkinson
Member
I’m confused why people think BotW 2 would outsell Starfield?
It’s… a Bethesda RPG. And it’ll be on Xbox systems + Steam. What am I missing??
BotW 2 won’t sell as much as the first. For various reasons. But historically, direct sequels on the same hardware never do as well as the first. It’s taken BotW over 5 years to sell what it has.
Look at Mario Galaxy 2 over Galaxy 1. It’s just lightning in a bottle. And even if the follow-up is a better game, it just won’t do as well. Not unless it also releases on a new Nintendo platform.
It’s… a Bethesda RPG. And it’ll be on Xbox systems + Steam. What am I missing??
BotW 2 won’t sell as much as the first. For various reasons. But historically, direct sequels on the same hardware never do as well as the first. It’s taken BotW over 5 years to sell what it has.
Look at Mario Galaxy 2 over Galaxy 1. It’s just lightning in a bottle. And even if the follow-up is a better game, it just won’t do as well. Not unless it also releases on a new Nintendo platform.
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Dr. Wilkinson
Member
Whatever BotW has sold, cut that in half.
If the game only releases on Switch, that’s what I would expect it to do. Extremely good sales, even so. But lightning can only be captured once. BotW defined this generation, it defined the Switch. It’s not gonna happen again with a direct sequel.
I'd probably go with Spiderman.
Really weird to describe Starfield solely in the xbox context. Bethesda RPGs are seriously big on PC. That platform exists, you know.
Dr. Wilkinson
Member
Starfield will absolutely sell 15-20 million +. I am shocked it’s being outvoted by BotW 2. I just don’t see that happening at all.
Gamepass will take some sales off on console.
PC gamers will most probably pick the game up on Steam for modding.
BOTW 2 will be a sales powerhouse. Larger install base, sequel to an excellent first title and Nintendo first party games seem to sell very well these days.
EDMIX
Member
This is definitely a tough one
I believe this would be between Spider-Man 2 and Starfield and Zelda. I think Spider-Man 2 is going to end up breaking almost every major record for a Sony published title and to come off of 20 plus million units on top of the potential sales from PC in the future I believe it's going to shatter every major record for Sony.
Starfield on the other hand if it becomes the new RPG pillar like Elder Scrolls and Fallout it can move massive units as well, on the low end it could be at 14 million or so similar to Fallout 4 on the high end it could go past 30 million.
It's difficult to tell and it's going to depend on how it's received but I believe maybe it's going to be on the low end for a few reasons it's going to be on less platforms than those previous titles and the Sci-Fi type setting seems to get less sales from Bethesda titles.
I think with breath of the Wild coming off of 20 plus million units I believe the sequel is going to do just as good if not better especially if it also launches on a new Nintendo portable.
So I think Zelda and Spider-Man are very safe bets based on how the previous titles performed
That's not to say a newcomer like Starfield or Hogwarts cannot create some massive install base of players that we've never seen prior.
I believe this would be between Spider-Man 2 and Starfield and Zelda. I think Spider-Man 2 is going to end up breaking almost every major record for a Sony published title and to come off of 20 plus million units on top of the potential sales from PC in the future I believe it's going to shatter every major record for Sony.
Starfield on the other hand if it becomes the new RPG pillar like Elder Scrolls and Fallout it can move massive units as well, on the low end it could be at 14 million or so similar to Fallout 4 on the high end it could go past 30 million.
It's difficult to tell and it's going to depend on how it's received but I believe maybe it's going to be on the low end for a few reasons it's going to be on less platforms than those previous titles and the Sci-Fi type setting seems to get less sales from Bethesda titles.
I think with breath of the Wild coming off of 20 plus million units I believe the sequel is going to do just as good if not better especially if it also launches on a new Nintendo portable.
So I think Zelda and Spider-Man are very safe bets based on how the previous titles performed
That's not to say a newcomer like Starfield or Hogwarts cannot create some massive install base of players that we've never seen prior.
Jimmyisback
Banned
Are we talking about sales or players. Starfield with players easily. All 25 million game pass subscribers will try it out.
MightySquirrel
Banned
I would be super shocked if STARFIELD doesn't manage 3x numbers of all others combined.
nominedomine
Banned
I voted for Spider-man 2 but if I could I would change to Zelda BoTW.
Seems like BoTW sold more than 27m and Spider-Man sold more than 20m, so Spider-Man doesn't seem to have much of a chance.
Starfield doesn't stand a chance, they'll probably be to ashamed to share how much copies the game will sell given that it's on Gamepass.
Seems like BoTW sold more than 27m and Spider-Man sold more than 20m, so Spider-Man doesn't seem to have much of a chance.
Starfield doesn't stand a chance, they'll probably be to ashamed to share how much copies the game will sell given that it's on Gamepass.
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adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
With Starfield being on game pass, a traditional sales metric is going to be useless for it. Otherwise it's probably the biggest game in terms of anticipation and also potentially available player base.
JohnnyFootball
GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
Im inclined to say BotW2, then Spiderman 2. Hogwarts Legacy will sell well if it ends up being a good game and the more I see of it, the more I am intrigued.
Starfield won't even break the sales record due to Gamepass. In terms of time played, I think it will be between pretty good.
Starfield won't even break the sales record due to Gamepass. In terms of time played, I think it will be between pretty good.
Sleepwalker
Member
I would say BOTW.
But also whatever Pokemon they release next year if they release one, whatever cod comes after this year's and FIFA 24 (under its new name) will all sell more, so yeah.
But also whatever Pokemon they release next year if they release one, whatever cod comes after this year's and FIFA 24 (under its new name) will all sell more, so yeah.
I don't put starfield in the running. Skyrim only edges out BoTW sales after being out for a decade and being rereleased at least 5 times. I expect starfield to follow a similar trajectory.
Harry Potter will sell well. I think reaching original BotW numbers is going to be a tough ask. FIFA represents the most popular sport on the planet and a rapid hungry fanbase. FIFA has only exceeded 25 million sales once or twice and I think only the most recent version topped the original BotW. I don't see Harry Potter doing those numbers.
My guess is that Harry Potter sells around 15 million units and BotW 2 sells at least 20 million copies.
Harry Potter will sell well. I think reaching original BotW numbers is going to be a tough ask. FIFA represents the most popular sport on the planet and a rapid hungry fanbase. FIFA has only exceeded 25 million sales once or twice and I think only the most recent version topped the original BotW. I don't see Harry Potter doing those numbers.
My guess is that Harry Potter sells around 15 million units and BotW 2 sells at least 20 million copies.
Ezquimacore
Banned
Nintendo fans actually buy games and that's why they buy their console, and botw2 is the sequel to the best selling zelda game ever made. when it comes to sales: Botw2 > Starfield > Spiderman > harry potter
Northeastmonk
Gold Member
There’s like 107 million Switch owners who will probably own a Zelda game at some point. My money would be on BoTW2. People are going to go nutz for BoTW2.
Starfield isn’t Skyrim though. You have people who might not be into space. It’s not like this is TESVI. Harry Potter fans are a hit and miss. You have fans who have had their time and that’s that. I don’t know if that’s going to mean top sales. You have HP stuff that’s probably sitting in garbage landfills. Spider-Man 2 will be successful, but I bet it’ll sell less than the first due to how they’ve made a Remaster and now a PC port of the original. Isn’t that how this works? That’s just my guess.
Starfield isn’t Skyrim though. You have people who might not be into space. It’s not like this is TESVI. Harry Potter fans are a hit and miss. You have fans who have had their time and that’s that. I don’t know if that’s going to mean top sales. You have HP stuff that’s probably sitting in garbage landfills. Spider-Man 2 will be successful, but I bet it’ll sell less than the first due to how they’ve made a Remaster and now a PC port of the original. Isn’t that how this works? That’s just my guess.
ReBurn
Gold Member
Zelda will be the most
Starfield will be the least in unit sales because Gamepass, but Microsoft will hype up the day 1 million player count
Hogwarts isn't going to be as good as everyone hoped but they won't know until after they bought it because they preordered, but the preorders will be huge
Spider Man will be second in unit sales
i guess
Starfield will be the least in unit sales because Gamepass, but Microsoft will hype up the day 1 million player count
Hogwarts isn't going to be as good as everyone hoped but they won't know until after they bought it because they preordered, but the preorders will be huge
Spider Man will be second in unit sales
i guess
March Climber
Member
It's an open world action adventure RPG with create-a-character/select-a-school with multiple different gameplay systems in place(like potion making or growing specific plants) to enchance the core game and entice players. Even if it ends up at B game quality, it's already miles ahead of where it could have been. Literally their biggest and only misstep has been the multiplayer aspect, but I'm sure people will find a way around that to make the game a more social experience.
remember_spinal
Banned
I did clarify that the vast majority of sales would be on PC
Putonahappyface
Member
Hogwarts Legacy imo as it's something refreshingly different.
The only thing that might harm it is
The only thing that might harm it is
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ReBurn
Gold Member
Don't get me wrong, I hope it's fantastic. I've watched the hype videos so I know what they're going for. The license alone is going to sell tons of copies. It just feels to me like it is a bit ambitious for the studio making it so the hype feels weird. They're not known for their open world create your own character multiple system RPG 's. I hope I'm wrong. I really do.
Iced Arcade
Member
I'd say long run would have been Starfield BUT with gamepass boxed sales are no longer a priority.
Spiderman is going to appeal and sell to casual kids like hotcakes and Hogwarts is on multiple systems.
BOTW2 will probably be the better game of them all but not the top seller.
Spiderman is going to appeal and sell to casual kids like hotcakes and Hogwarts is on multiple systems.
BOTW2 will probably be the better game of them all but not the top seller.
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bitbydeath
Member
Either BotW2 or Spider-Man 2, the others won’t come close.
Sosokrates
Report me if I continue to console war
In this case payer count is a probably a better metric because millions of people will get starfield via game pass.
Though I think it will be BOTW2.
Spiderman 2 will be releasing only on PS5 first and it's install base will be significantly less then the PS4s in 2018, so I don't think it will do quite as well as the first.
Though I think it will be BOTW2.
Spiderman 2 will be releasing only on PS5 first and it's install base will be significantly less then the PS4s in 2018, so I don't think it will do quite as well as the first.
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EverydayBeast
thinks Halo Infinite is a new graphical benchmark
Zelda is crucial to Nintendo consoles.
remember_spinal
Banned
Sony is planning to ship 18m by March 2023, so even if they fall short again they would have about 33-35 million by next Spring. By the time spider-man 2 comes out which would likely be Fall again, it will be about 45
bitbydeath
Member
Spider-Man 1 already beat it in less time and on less systems and without relaunching a dozen or so times.
And that is Skyrim, where around half of its sales would have been on PlayStation, vs a brand new IP that already received poor reception from its last showing.
They aren’t even in the same galaxy sales wise. (Pun!)
remember_spinal
Banned
Why would we talk about players? Only one of those games are being offered on a service
remember_spinal
Banned
There will be around 120m switch owners by the time BOTW 2 comes out
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Insomniac/Sony count both Spider Man and Miles Morales together in their 33 million tally.
Skyrim has sold 30+ million copies but last recorded figure was all the way back in 2016. It has probably sold a lot more with the anniversary edition and coming to Switch, PS5/SX and all.
Spider Man has not sold more copies than Skyrim.
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Sosokrates
Report me if I continue to console war
Why not, I mean what's the point in saying which sells the most? Is it just dick measuring contest for who gets the highest sales?
remember_spinal
Banned
Yeah skyrim has re-released like 6 times on like 10 platforms and its not less platform this time (no nintendo, no playstation) then add gamepass to the mix.
remember_spinal
Banned
Yeah, so what though? Its a fun thought experiment considering they are some of the biggest single player games coming out
If you feel like its unfair make a thread about player counts
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Sosokrates
Report me if I continue to console war
Thought experiment leading to what? OP didn't say what it's meant to mean.
I'm guessing that most People will think the game that sells the most is the most successful, but into today's market I don't think that's the case anymore.
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adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
It's a flawed thought experiment, as in later posts OP himself acknowledges that people will probably be playing Starfield via game pass.
So it's extremely likely it will not be "selling" as many retail units as the other mentions here but at any given time it will have the most player engagement owing to it's day 1 availability on a sub service.
Sosokrates
Report me if I continue to console war
The thread would be better if it had some stated motives behind it. E.g what conclusions is OP trying to draw from this information.
Lupin25
Member
It’s BOTW 2.
Not because I’m buying it, but because there’s more Switch owners out there that have to buy the game, rather than invest in a sub like Xbox/PC users for Starfield.
Spider-Man 2 obviously has the draw. If it released on PS4 as well, it would be my answer, but SM2 is next-gen only and the PS5 won’t have shipped enough units in time to match pace of the Switch.
Hogwarts, I think, has potential…
But I believe lifetime sales will depend on the quality of the game. It could end up in a Marvel’s Avengers situation with poor execution despite the strength in IP.
Not because I’m buying it, but because there’s more Switch owners out there that have to buy the game, rather than invest in a sub like Xbox/PC users for Starfield.
Spider-Man 2 obviously has the draw. If it released on PS4 as well, it would be my answer, but SM2 is next-gen only and the PS5 won’t have shipped enough units in time to match pace of the Switch.
Hogwarts, I think, has potential…
But I believe lifetime sales will depend on the quality of the game. It could end up in a Marvel’s Avengers situation with poor execution despite the strength in IP.
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