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[teiresias]

It's pretty clear now. I thought people didn't use the rail because driving a car was pretty cheap to them due to cars and gas prices in NA...I didn't know that other options such as the rail were inexistant or pretty bad.

Then again, mea culpa to have stated something while didn't know enough about the subject.

About the only rail option I know of near me (Richmond, VA - Hampton, VA right now while I intern) is a commuter train that takes people from Northern Virginia up to DC, and then obviously they can use the metro to get to wherever the metro goes. I believe a month-long pass that gets you on both the commuter train and the metro is between $500 - $300/month, depending on where along the commuter train's route you are (the further outside DC you are the more you pay obviously).

However, Richmond and it's sprawling Chesterfield, West End, Northside, etc. suburbs are all just highway - and it's even worse down here in the Hampton and Norfolk area where you not only have TONS of traffic but the damn bridges and tunnels that get backed up everyday. The whole VA Beach/Norfolk/Hampton region could use a commuter train/monorail/metro system, but the infrastructure is just not there and regional cooperation is certainly not there to get it implemented anytime soon.

 

[DarienA]

About the only rail option I know of near me (Richmond, VA - Hampton, VA right now while I intern) is a commuter train that takes people from Northern Virginia up to DC, and then obviously they can use the metro to get to wherever the metro goes. I believe a month-long pass that gets you on both the commuter train and the metro is between $500 - $300/month, depending on where along the commuter train's route you are (the further outside DC you are the more you pay obviously).

However, Richmond and it's sprawling Chesterfield, West End, Northside, etc. suburbs are all just highway - and it's even worse down here in the Hampton and Norfolk area where you not only have TONS of traffic but the damn bridges and tunnels that get backed up everyday. The whole VA Beach/Norfolk/Hampton region could use a commuter train/monorail/metro system, but the infrastructure is just not there and regional cooperation is certainly not there to get it implemented anytime soon.

You know my sister lives in Hampton and we have a timeshare down in VA Beach... to say it's a chore to drive down 64 is a friggin understatement... and now she's talking about moving to Suffolk... I told her... you really don't want to see me too much down there do you?

 

[teiresias]

You know my sister lives in Hampton and we have a timeshare down in VA Beach... to say it's a chore to drive down 64 is a friggin understatement... and now she's talking about moving to Suffolk... I told her... you really don't want to see me too much down there do you?

Suffolk is actually easier to get too during rush hour if you get off of 64 at Mercury Boulevard in Hampton and spend the extra 15 minutes to go down Mercury, over the James River Bridge, down to Benn's Church in Smithfield and follow Route 10 into Suffolk. Sure, it's like 15 more minutes, but during rush hour it'd be like an hour extra as you deal with the various tunnel traffic staying on 64.

And who CHOOSES to move to Suffolk? :lol

 

[xabre]

Peak Oil is a theory concerning the long-term rate of fossil fuel extraction and depletion. The Supply-Demand curve is an economic model that describes, explains, and predicts changes in the price and quantity of goods sold in competitive markets.

Supply can outstrip demand regardless of where we are in Hubbert curve, just as supply can outpace demand, even on the downswing of the curve. Obvious, peak oil influences supply/demand, but conflating the two is wrong, and that's one of the reasons people dismiss the peak oil hyperbolists.

Fair enough, but I wouldn't go as far as to say Peak Oil and Supply/Demand have nothing to do with each other. They become intertwined because you are only going to extract as much oil as is economical to do so, so if you only need 6 barrels of oil you aren't going to extract 80. Eventually you come to a point where you do need 80 but if the supply peaked at 78, then supply/demand is a key factor.

 

[whytemyke]

It also assumes that absolutely nothing will replace the current technology of gasoline-fueled cars, which a lot of the not-so-smart Peak Oil posters assume and which there's no evidence for.

Take a chill. Detroit's been declining for decades anyway. Yes, it'll suck in the short term, but Mad Max is not happening.

Dude. We lose a plant that employs 1500 people, and an entire community dies within a year. What do you think is going to happen when they start killing off the truck/SUV plants up here? What's gonna happen when 200,000 people start getting laid off at once? And just cuz it starts in Detroit doesn't mean it won't happen everywhere else that there's a car plant, too. So I'm gonna go ahead and not 'take a chill'... this is a legit concern that people should beware of.

 

[AirBrian]

Certain trains are funded by the government, but subways, buses and streetcars are paid by the cities.Some of them, specially buses, are contracted with private companies. That means higher taxes, of course.

Thanks for the clarification. Yeah, I should've been more specific in my earlier post as I was mainly referring to the train system.

 

[siamesedreamer]

Unleaded Gasoline for Sept delivery +$.65 in 2 days!
Practically unchanged for delivery in 2006.

 

[xabre]

LAAAWLLLL

History is ripe with examples.

Well that's very true in regards to creating dot.com esque bubbles, but in the case of oil there are some important factors to consider. Namely that oil supply is constrained relative to demand and political factors such as Iraq are all helping to fuel such speculation. The point is that oil is not a big speculative bubble ready to burst and plummet back down to $30 a barrel, there is a solid basis for the current prices.

 

[DarienA]

Suffolk is actually easier to get too during rush hour if you get off of 64 at Mercury Boulevard in Hampton and spend the extra 15 minutes to go down Mercury, over the James River Bridge, down to Benn's Church in Smithfield and follow Route 10 into Suffolk. Sure, it's like 15 more minutes, but during rush hour it'd be like an hour extra as you deal with the various tunnel traffic staying on 64.

And who CHOOSES to move to Suffolk? :lol

Ah ok thanks... and personally like you I think she's retarded.

Dude. We lose a plant that employs 1500 people, and an entire community dies within a year. What do you think is going to happen when they start killing off the truck/SUV plants up here? What's gonna happen when 200,000 people start getting laid off at once? And just cuz it starts in Detroit doesn't mean it won't happen everywhere else that there's a car plant, too. So I'm gonna go ahead and not 'take a chill'... this is a legit concern that people should beware of.

Are alternative fuel vehicles going to build themselves? I mean sure it's not going to be an easy transition... one day combustion engine factory... the next day, alternate fuel car factory but you will see a transition.

 

[ourumov]

MAF probably is right in the sense that when reading your problem I was looking it from my own point of view, where scale of things is pretty different.

I live in Barcelona, which has a population of 3 million people (3000000) and it's one of the biggest cities of Spain...I think Madrid has more but well this is far from cities like London and Paris which are certainly the biggest ones of Europe.
Anyways here people also practices the Suburbian Way of Life in the sense that prices of flats and houses here have skyrocketed to the point that is no longer sustainable to live in the city and they are going to suburbs. Here the reasons for going out are not a preference but an obligation. An average flat in Barcelona costs around 370,000 USD which I don't know if it's the same price than a flat in Boston (to say something) but it's certainly expensive and people is on mortages of 30+ years.
The difference is perhaps that being in a suburb or even at 100 km away from Barcelona doesn't mean that you are restricted to car. The train does a pretty good job and a lot of my pals at the University take it to come to study.

Now looking at the US example, cities are certainly much bigger and not always as good comunicated as an european one. Here you can take a lot of different combinations to reach your destination...and I really don't know anything about how underground and bus work in average cities of North America. Here they work fairly good but that has been because there has been a strong implication of the local government to improve this.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

Fair enough, but I wouldn't go as far as to say Peak Oil and Supply/Demand have nothing to do with each other. They become intertwined because you are only going to extract as much oil as is economical to do so, so if you only need 6 barrels of oil you aren't going to extract 80. Eventually you come to a point where you do need 80 but if the supply peaked at 78, then supply/demand is a key factor.

They are, to be honest, slightly related, but not in the way you're describing. Assuming maximum production, if demand wants 80 barrels, but supply only offers 78 barrels, it's not going to have the slightest effect on the Hubbert curve.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

What do you think is going to happen when they start killing off the truck/SUV plants up here?

They stop making trucks and SUVs and start making fuel efficient cars and electric vehicles.

 

[Lo-Volt]

I hug my MetroCard and railroad tickets as I read this. Two dollars in New York City for a ride before discounts versus four dollars a gallon is such an easy choice. Public transit is the past is the future.

 

[DarienA]

Well that's very true in regards to creating dot.com esque bubbles, but in the case of oil there are some important factors to consider. Namely that oil supply is constrained relative to demand and political factors such as Iraq are all helping to fuel such speculation. The point is that oil is not a big speculative bubble ready to burst and plummet back down to $30 a barrel, there is a solid basis for the current prices.

I'm glad you mentioned it with that verbage because here's something that has been sticking in my mind for awhile that I keep forgetting to say.

You know we are talking about high gas prices, increased demand, etc... and yet many of the oil company's are reporting record profits.....

Where is the outrage for that?

I hug my MetroCard and railroad tickets as I read this. Two dollars in New York City for a ride before discounts versus four dollars a gallon is such an easy choice. Public transit is the past is the future.

This is a very simplied view of the situation... most cities do not have public transportation at the scale of NYC's...

 

[LegendofJoe]

You know my sister lives in Hampton and we have a timeshare down in VA Beach... to say it's a chore to drive down 64 is a friggin understatement... and now she's talking about moving to Suffolk... I told her... you really don't want to see me too much down there do you?

I feel your pain more than you know. I know a lot of people that going to be in for a lot of hurting. The entire Tidewater highway system is a disaster, the area is in desperate need of commuter system.

 

[tedtropy]

And still we build shit like this...

IT BOGGLES THE MIND.

And please, nobody give me the "we're Americans and we can drive what we damn well please" speech. Vehicles like this are a conscious waste of an increasingly precious resource. There is simply no need for it, and yes, laws should be created limiting the MPG usage of such vehicles, especially in these times.

 

[xsarien]

Dude. We lose a plant that employs 1500 people, and an entire community dies within a year. What do you think is going to happen when they start killing off the truck/SUV plants up here? What's gonna happen when 200,000 people start getting laid off at once? And just cuz it starts in Detroit doesn't mean it won't happen everywhere else that there's a car plant, too. So I'm gonna go ahead and not 'take a chill'... this is a legit concern that people should beware of.

The American automakers who pretty much own the entire economy of the greater Detroit area have no one but themselves to blame. And while it does really suck for the people who work there, just trying to make an honest living, maybe they wouldn't be in that position if the companies actually tried to compete when it mattered. Hell, even today: The foreign makers are beating them to the punch with hybrid vehicles. It seems very likely that Honda is going to put their hybrid engine technology into all of their models, and Toyota's already branching it off into Lexus. Ford has what, the Escape?

If they go under, it will have nothing to do with people moving away from SUVs or high gas prices; it will have everything to do with their stubborness and complete unwillingness to spend money in order to make money.

Thank you SUV drivers of America.

Schadenfreude is a hell of a thing. Whenever I see some soccer mom or teenager filling up their SUV, I just smile. Maybe a little laugh will come out. I'd have more sympathy if I weren't so positive that the tiniest minority of SUV owners actually take them off-road or use them for other legitimate purposes.*

(*Shuttling the kids back and forth doesn't count as a legitimate use, there are station wagons and minivans for that.)

 

[Lo-Volt]

This is a very simplied view of the situation... most cities do not have public transportation at the scale of NYC's...

I agree with this sentiment, actually; I never said massive subway systems are the future. My first response was just a quip. I would not advocate building subways for cities the size of New Orleans or Detroit, which would take too much time and cost too much money for too few people, and a large subway system would spark so much NIMBYism as to, well you get the idea, probably. But many suburbanites are starved of simple bus services, or trolleys, for God's sake. You're right, we should not expect America to build New York-style subways. But public transit, in some form, will hopefully be considered a very good idea again in the decade to come.

 

[Tommie Hu$tle]

Stage one complete - Gas stations in metro Phx are starting to run out of fuel.

*edit* this is uncomfirmed at this point but, last time there was a rumor that fuel was running out in Phx there was chaos.

 

[SteveMeister]

SUV drivers, minivan drivers, pickup truck drivers, sports car drivers -- how many times do we have to go over this? SUVs aren't the only vehicles that get poor gas mileage.

 

[SteveMeister]

And still we build shit like this...

IT BOGGLES THE MIND.

Not really. Everyone who buys one of those knows they get shitty gas mileage. It's not like they didn't know what they were getting into. And if they can pay $50-$60k for a vehicle, they can afford $4 per gallon to fill it up.

 

[Slurpy]

I live in Canada, and the gas prices now are the highest I've seen in my life up here. They're supposed to hit $1.20 CDN a liter this week- which I would never have imagined.

 

[xabre]

They are, to be honest, slightly related, but not in the way you're describing. Assuming maximum production, if demand wants 80 barrels, but supply only offers 78 barrels, it's not going to have the slightest effect on the Hubbert curve.

I agree that if you're pumping flat out the curve doesn't change however as supply becomes increasingly constrained price gradually increases as a result (supply/demand). The direct correlation is that a decline in demand and therefore decline in production has the effect of delaying the peak, as for example, the oil shocks of the 70's.

 

[Tommie Hu$tle]

SUV drivers, minivan drivers, pickup truck drivers, sports car drivers -- how many times do we have to go over this? SUVs aren't the only vehicles that get poor gas mileage.

Yeah you have to include Tanks, Humm-V, School buses, & APCs among other things.

 

[whytemyke]

Ford makes the highest selling truck on the market, the F-150. They also make one of the highest selling SUVs on the market, in the Explorer. Now, they have no immediate projects in line for fuel efficient vehicles. Ford has their hybrid, and they have their gas-efficient cars that they have already, and that's fine. But while sales for those may go up, the decline in their big-sellers being sold will be far more drastic. And everyone mentions the alternate fuel vehicles... WHAT alternate fuel vehicles? Maybe I'm missing out on some high-production electric or hydrogen cars. I must have missed that article. But as of right now, as far as I know, nobody in the big 3 has anything in the way of development towards more fuel efficient cars beyond what they're doing now (except GM, who does have one hybrid in development that's not out currently, I believe). There's going to be a stutter in the system here, and it's going to be reflected on the workers, and then shared by the already dying economy up here.

Yes, they'll need workers down the line. But that's not going to do a damn thing for the next two or three years, and my worry is that the hit that Detroit, and therefore Michigan and probably Ohio, too (as well as other blue-collar areas, Kentucky, Georgia for example) could take a blow so bad that it'll take far more than a replacement of the jobs 3-4 years down the road to repair. It simply won't be a refilling job, is what I"m saying. It'll be a complete rebuilding job.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Stage one complete - Gas stations in metro Phx are starting to run out of fuel.

*edit* this is uncomfirmed at this point but, last time there was a rumor that fuel was running out in Phx there was chaos.

I can confirm that a local BP had a few BAGGIES over the pump handles. They said "Out of Order". I'm pretty sure it was due to a lack of gas!!

 

[MrAngryFace]

I remember when southern AZ ran out of fuel 2 years ago. That sucked so bad.

 

[tedtropy]

SUV drivers, minivan drivers, pickup truck drivers, sports car drivers -- how many times do we have to go over this? SUVs aren't the only vehicles that get poor gas mileage.

You're absolutely right, although I'd give exception to some pickups as they can have a practical application, although I see plenty of jacked-up dualie 4 X 4s with one drive and no cargo. But how many times have I see an Escalade with a crew that could fit just as well in a gas-conscious four-door? And as much as I love a nice sports car, yes, many are just an outright waste of gas. You can't force sensibility onto people, but you can start limiting the sheer waste of a depleting resource.

 

[bishoptl]

I live in Canada, and the gas prices now are the highest I've seen in my life up here. They're supposed to hit $1.20 CDN a liter this week- which I would never have imagined.

It's ridiculous. I remember back in 98 when I was paying 38 cents a litre and bitching. Oh to have those glory days back again.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

The direct correlation is that a decline in demand and therefore decline in production has the effect of delaying the peak, as for example, the oil shocks of the 70's.

Since you got this part right, I'm going to assume you've got the first part right too, but you're just not expressing it correctly.

 

[CajoleJuice]

If you really want to save money the easy way, get a motorcycle or even a scooter.

"I can get 70 miles to the gallon on this hog."

 

[tedtropy]

Not really. Everyone who buys one of those knows they get shitty gas mileage. It's not like they didn't know what they were getting into. And if they can pay $50-$60k for a vehicle, they can afford $4 per gallon to fill it up.

It's fine if they're willing to accept that, but it's not purchased in a vacuum. Enough drivers think like that and it starts affecting all of us. We do water rationing in parts of this country during periods of extended heat, why can't we start doing something more sensible with gas?

 

[Instigator]

If you really want to save money the easy way, get a motorcycle or even a scooter.

"I can get 70 miles to the gallon on this hog."

I hate those. They're so noisy.

 

[Synbios459]

I don't know anything but how gas is priced, but if everyone priced it at $1 dollar could everything go well?

 

[Tommie Hu$tle]

I remember when southern AZ ran out of fuel 2 years ago. That sucked so bad.

Yeah I was there as well, that shit was a mad house. The problem with Phx is that it only has one fuel line that supples the whole city coming from Tuscon.

 

[borghe]

for the record, I would LOVE to take public transportation to work. seriously. In japan I absolutely marveled at their train system.

however, I could bike to work faster than it would take me to take a bus (we have no trains in milwaukee) from my house to work. It would take me at least an hour and a half easy to get to work

15 miles away.

 

[madara]

Man I so glad I grew up when I did. I cant imagine all people and families not being able to take the old fashioned vacation and drive few states away. Heck I cant even convince my family to pick me up more twice a month with way rates are going.

 

[Tommie Hu$tle]

for the record, I would LOVE to take public transportation to work.

For public transportation to take off here in the states like it is in JPN or EUR then we would have to see Katrina levels of damage in at least 3 to 4 major cites all at once.

 

[Bluecondor]

After reading about all of the damage that Katrina did to the oil infrastructure, the refining infrastructure, and even to the ability to ship domestic oil up the Mississippi, I think we'll be lucky if the worst thing that happens is $4 a gallon gas.

This disaster has the potential to cause some really serious shocks throughout our economy. The housing bubble and the $2.50 a gallon gas we had before this were starting to get scary enough. This multi-billion dollar disaster has some real potentail to cripple us, because - unlike the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew in 1992 ($26 billion), when the money actually helped the economy since it went into redevelopment, etc., this disaster is going to hurt an already shaky oil market.

The prospects of this are making me feel very uneasy about the state of the US economy, and I am usually the last person to be a doomsayer about things like this.....

 

[Instigator]

For public transportation to take off here in the states like it is in JPN or EUR then we would have to see Katrina levels of damage in at least 3 to 4 major cites all at once.

I live in hope. Send in the hurricanes.

 

[tedtropy]

for the record, I would LOVE to take public transportation to work. seriously. In japan I absolutely marveled at their train system.

however, I could bike to work faster than it would take me to take a bus (we have no trains in milwaukee) from my house to work. It would take me at least an hour and a half easy to get to work

15 miles away.

I can just picture myself huffing up the beltway in my 10-speed, my untanned legs blinding drivers as they weave towards me. It would not end well for anyone.

 

[Matlock]

Just about to post this.
I have my bike and everything in my city is within a few miles.

Hello, and welcmoe to a world where not everyone lives within 3 miles of work.

 

[MrAngryFace]

But Matlock, there's a McDonalds on every city block.

 

[tedtropy]

Hello, and welcmoe to a world where not everyone lives within 3 miles of work.

Hell, I would rather pay for my gas then live in most of the apartments that are that close to my work, and I'm sure that's true for alot of people working in the city.

 

[chaostrophy]

The American automakers who pretty much own the entire economy of the greater Detroit area have no one but themselves to blame.

Yep.

Japanese automaker strategy- Spend whatever it takes on R&D to stay at the top of the technology curve, whatever's left is profit.

American automaker strategy- Skimp on anything you can, because the shareholders demand current quarterly profits to be maximized.

Sometimes rampant greed isn't good for business. Who would have thunk it?

 

[tedtropy]

But Matlock, there's a McDonalds on every city block.

:lol

 

[SteveMeister]

Hello, and welcmoe to a world where not everyone lives within 3 miles of work.

Seriously. I have a 29 mile commute, and no mass transit options. And property closer to work is ridiculously expensive. No biking for me.

At least my wife works here too, so we can commute in her diesel bug.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Well that's very true in regards to creating dot.com esque bubbles, but in the case of oil there are some important factors to consider. Namely that oil supply is constrained relative to demand and political factors such as Iraq are all helping to fuel such speculation. The point is that oil is not a big speculative bubble ready to burst and plummet back down to $30 a barrel, there is a solid basis for the current prices.

There was "solid basis" in 1979 also.

Soon after, there was a long protracted war between Iraq and Iran where oil production all but came to a stop. But the prices still remained low.

 

[imastalker co.]

man, do i feel sorry for all you guys that drive cars.

join the fun club and get yourself a bicycle or motorcycle. transportation is just icing on the cake.

 

[tedtropy]

man, do i feel sorry for all you guys that drive cars.

join the fun club and get yourself a bicycle or motorcycle. transportation is just icing on the cake.

And the whole no seatbelts, airbags, remote possibility of living in most accidents thing is what...the candles? No thank you.