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Wedbush NPD August preview

Getting closer.

Last chance to win the NPD sweepstakes.

PSP vs DS Grudge Match
Madden Monopoly
Nintendogs Nationwide shortage
Advance Wars
NCAA hold on?
PS2 HW vs GBA
XBox?
GCN finally had some games...
Any other big games??

Place your bets.
 

JavyOO7

Member
sonycowboy said:
Getting closer.

Last chance to win the NPD sweepstakes.

PSP vs DS Grudge Match
Madden Monopoly
Nintendogs Nationwide shortage
Advance Wars
NCAA hold on?
PS2 HW vs GBA
XBox?
GCN finally had some games...
Any other big games??

Place your bets.

PSP vs DS: PSP outsells DS. And I can understand why. Software line-up is strong. Hardware is terrific. UMD movies for the win! etc etc Me, personally, I love Nintendogs and I can see why it would propell the DS the next time the NPD shows up.

Madden: It'll still sell, there's no surprise to this.

Nintendogs: If Nintendo doesn't fuck up, this could be a phenomena of sorts. And yeah, in 3 stores over here at Hialeah (Walmart/Ebgames/Gamestop), the pups are all sold out. I was like: "...wow."

Advance Wars: This will be a BIG seller by the end of the year, it'll convince folks to buy the DS. This game is so excellent. Jake should die.

NCAA: I hear that Madden is superior to NCAA, no? Anyhow, NCAA sales should be brisk until the end of the year, and then it'll rapidly fall off by Feb/March of the next year.

PS2 vs GBA: This should be kinda, irrelevant. Both machines will sell. I do think PS2 outsold GBA again for the month, but we'll see. What releases were there for GBA?

Xbox: It'll have nice sales, but not as good of sales as last year (remember beating PS2 in some months and etc?)

GCN: It'll probably surpass 100k but no more than that. Sadly, the system is more or less dead. Nintendo fucked up this generation with GCN in many ways. Hey, I love the system, and contrary to most opinions out there, I thought Nintendo develiered good games on their front. But still, they fucked up mostly but some stuff were out of their hands.

Other big games? Not that I can remember really. I mostly follow the Nintendo side of things and sparing PS2/Xbox (doesn't mean I'm just super all pro-Nintendo, it's just a habit. :D) I don't see most games selling except for Madden/Nintendogs/NCAA/Advance Wars.

Speaking of DS/PSP... it would'nt surprise me if by the end of the year if PSP outsells DS... but it also would'nt surprise me if the DS outsells the PSP by the end of the year.

But essentially, who cares. Both have great line-ups in the fall.
 

Alcibiades

Member
If the GCN makes it anywhere near 100,000, it'd be a long way from dead...

as it is, I'm predicting around 50,000-75,000, probably somewhere in the middle...

if it gets to the 10,000-50,000 level on a continual basis, it will definitely be heading towards "dead", but as it is, Nintendo vast Player's Choice lineup and upcoming Mario games should provide them plenty of profit even with under 100,000 monthly hardware sales...
 

JavyOO7

Member
Alcibiades said:
If the GCN makes it anywhere near 100,000, it'd be a long way from dead...

as it is, I'm predicting around 50,000-75,000, probably somewhere in the middle...

if it gets to the 10,000-50,000 level on a continual basis, it will definitely be heading towards "dead", but as it is, Nintendo vast Player's Choice lineup and upcoming Mario games should provide them plenty of profit even with under 100,000 monthly hardware sales...

Well, 'dead', is pretty harsh. But well, it's REALLY close to getting there that's for sure.

Well yeah Nintendo proifts and all; but essentially I wonder if that mindset will ever cease in favor of bending over to the casual gamer. I dunno, we'll see.
 
JavyOO7 said:
Advance Wars: This will be a BIG seller by the end of the year, it'll convince folks to buy the DS. This game is so excellent. Jake should die.

Jake has the best music in the game. Jake is the man, if you keep making fun of Jake, I am going to have to drop you like a phat beat.
 

donny2112

Member
JavyOO7 said:
PS2 vs GBA: This should be kinda, irrelevant. Both machines will sell. I do think PS2 outsold GBA again for the month, but we'll see. What releases were there for GBA?

Nothing big, but that's never made a difference before with GBA selling huge quantities. :p

If there is going to be a ranking on who was closest on total hardware numbers (all 6 systems), currently only 2 people would qualify. Anyone else interested in guessing hardware numbers? They'll probably come out tomorrow or early next week. :)
 
NPD pulled back Aug Data - Will be rereleased soon

From that Data - Madden 2.2M units (vs last year 2.1M units = OUCH) , only 3 games over 100k, Pokemon Emerald top selling handheld game, Nintendogs take 3 of top 5 handheld spots.
 

jman2050

Member
sonycowboy said:
NPD pulled back Aug Data - Will be rereleased soon

From that Data - Madden 2.2M units (vs last year 2.1M units = OUCH) , only 3 games over 100k, Pokemon Emerald top selling handheld game, Nintendogs take 3 of top 5 handheld spots.

Only 3 over 100k?

Madden PS2, Madden Xbox, Pokemon Emerald?
 

Elios83

Member
sonycowboy said:
NPD pulled back Aug Data - Will be rereleased soon

From that Data - Madden 2.2M units (vs last year 2.1M units = OUCH) , only 3 games over 100k, Pokemon Emerald top selling handheld game, Nintendogs take 3 of top 5 handheld spots.

Damn NPD is getting boring with all these delays,plus the delay we have to discover the hardware numbers.
 

donny2112

Member
Elios83 said:
Damn NPD is getting boring with all these delays,plus the delay we have to discover the hardware numbers.

Alternative? Yeah.

sonycowboy said:
only 3 games over 100k

I guessed six (I combined Nintendogs to get a seventh), so it looks like I overestimated sales again. I'll try to keep that in mind next month. :)
 

bunkum

Member
Hi guys and girls,

been off line ,guess u want some numbers

Only 3 > 100k

PS2 MADDEN NFL 06 $71,814,740 1,461,380
XBX MADDEN NFL 06 $33,648,820 682,665
PS2 NCAA FOOTBALL 06 $5,811,327 121,553

Other #1s

GCN MADDEN NFL 06 $3,979,524 80,939
GBA POKEMON EMERALD $2,831,133 81,239
NDS NINTENDOGS: DACHSHUND & FRIENDS $2,519,540 81,979
PSP MIDNIGHT CLUB 3: DUB EDITION $2,058,433 41,980


I'll do the normal scam sometime laters.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
bunkum said:
Hi guys and girls,

been off line ,guess u want some numbers

Only 3 > 100k

PS2 MADDEN NFL 06 $71,814,740 1,461,380
XBX MADDEN NFL 06 $33,648,820 682,665
PS2 NCAA FOOTBALL 06 $5,811,327 121,553

Other #1s

GCN MADDEN NFL 06 $3,979,524 80,939
GBA POKEMON EMERALD $2,831,133 81,239
NDS NINTENDOGS: DACHSHUND & FRIENDS $2,519,540 81,979
PSP MIDNIGHT CLUB 3: DUB EDITION $2,058,433 41,980


I'll do the normal scam sometime laters.


Damn, Pokemon Emerald is still burning up the place.

Is it selling so well because its a standalone, not a double-color release, thus getting all the Poke-market, ya think?
 

Memles

Member
bunkum said:
NDS NINTENDOGS: DACHSHUND & FRIENDS $2,519,540 81,979 .

That 250,000 number was for an entire week, not the shortened NPD week, correct? If that's the case, I'm guessing we're going to be coming in around 200k for the NPD...which is pretty damn good, especially with the highest PSP game being so low.
 

ziran

Member
John Harker said:
Damn, Pokemon Emerald is still burning up the place.

Is it selling so well because its a standalone, not a double-color release, thus getting all the Poke-market, ya think?
i think it's selling well because it's an :D awesome game :D [imo] and pokemon is a HUGE franchise.

still, it's surprising how well it's selling after 4 months, especially when you consider it's basically ruby/sapphire with a few extras!
 
Nitendogs (Total) 209,727
DEATH JR 28,608
ADVANCE WARS : DUAL STRIKE 44,293

NDS Games Total 446,344
PSP Games Total 408,933
 

Memles

Member
sonycowboy said:
Nitendogs (Total) 209,727
ADVANCE WARS : DUAL STRIKE 44,293

Nintendogs about where I would expect for the shortened week, and that's pretty good for such a short period of time for Advance Wars. The real test, of course, will be September, but I'd expect pretty good sales there too.
 
sonycowboy said:
Nitendogs (Total) 209,727
DEATH JR 28,608
ADVANCE WARS : DUAL STRIKE 44,293

NDS Games Total 446,344
PSP Games Total 408,933

Nice numbers for Nintendogs and Advance Wars! When was Death JR released?

Both software totals were lower than I expected(another ~23% less software sales for PSP + a bit lower sales from Nintendogs and Advance Wars then predicted, although they are both good).
 

jman2050

Member
210k for the shortened week is good. Incidentally, didn't Guybrush's numbers only add up to 220k rather than 250k?

We want hardware though. We're told 100k for the DS is a reasonable estimate, but the real story is the PSP and where it's at. I expect higher sales than the DS of course, but the information that was given showed that the DS outsold it rather confortably during the last week with Nintendogs, which might be a sign of what to expect. Either way, we'll see.

Consoles? Same ol, same ol, move along everyone.
 

donny2112

Member
kaching said:
Darien, through July its 1.7 mil for the PSP and about 2 mil for the DS, I think.

I believe the DS number for the U.S. is 1.89 million. a.k.a. PSP userbase is approximately the same as the DS userbase in the U.S. August should push the DS right next to or possibly barely over 2 million in the U.S., though.
 
@jman PSP will probably about 160-170k and DS probably slightly above 100k.

It will be very interesting to see how well Nintendogs and the DS do in the next month. Perhaps another 300k Nintendogs(5 weeks month) and ~150-200k DS'(AFAIK it has quite much new releases + Nintendogs of course ;) ).

@donny The DS userbase is 1.89m + the July numbers(probably about 80k).
 

donny2112

Member
Culex said:
Wario64 said:
looks like the DS will beat the PSP this time :D
Not this month, but it will be the closest since the PSP launched, for sure.

Yep. September gives the DS a fighting chance, though, depending on how much Madden PSP pushes hardware sales and how much Nintendogs+price drop continues to push DS sales.
 

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
Thanks for the userbase #'s... what about big upcoming titles for both systems this month?
 

donny2112

Member
From PGC's release list, Tak DS, Ultimate Spider-Man DS, Trace Memory, Lunar: Dragon Song, and Lost in Blue would probably be the most anticipated new releases for the DS in September. However, 5 more weeks of Nintendogs sales+price drop will probably push hardware sales more than all of those.

For the PSP, Madden PSP comes out in September. I don't know the release date of Burnout Legends PSP, but with it already going gold, it may come out in September, too. Madden, especially, should push PSP sales in September.

Edit:
\/\/\/ Thanks, kaching! :)
 

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
Burnout Legends is releasing next week, the 13th. Plus the FF7:Advent Children movie is also supposed to be out this month
 
Frankfurter said:
@jman PSP will probably about 160-170k and DS probably slightly above 100k.

It will be very interesting to see how well Nintendogs and the DS do in the next month. Perhaps another 300k Nintendogs(5 weeks month) and ~150-200k DS'(AFAIK it has quite much new releases + Nintendogs of course ;) ).

@donny The DS userbase is 1.89m + the July numbers(probably about 80k).

Nintendogs appears to be a nationwide sellout, with virtually no stock for most of this month. EB employee claim that they've received an internal email that states that they don't expect to get any more Nintendogs in until the week of Sept 19th.

That will probably hurt the DS and Nintendogs sales if it's true for most stores.

donny2112 said:
From PGC's release list, Tak DS, Ultimate Spider-Man DS, Trace Memory, Lunar: Dragon Song, and Lost in Blue would probably be the most anticipated new releases for the DS in September. However, 5 more weeks of Nintendogs sales+price drop will probably push hardware sales more than all of those.

For the PSP, Madden PSP comes out in September. I don't know the release date of Burnout Legends PSP, but with it already going gold, it may come out in September, too. Madden, especially, should push PSP sales in September.

Madden will be the first software to push PSP's since launch. I don't think Burnout will sell systems and it may not even do as well as Midnight Club 3, which is a relatively big seller on all systems.
 

Culex

Banned
sonycowboy said:
Nintendogs appears to be a nationwide sellout, with virtually no stock for most of this month. EB employee claim that they've received an internal email that states that they don't expect to get any more Nintendogs in until the week of Sept 19th.

That will probably hurt the DS and Nintendogs sales if it's true for most stores.

If that's really true, would you say Nintendo undershipped, or just couldn't produce enough copies for the US in time?
 
Culex said:
If that's really true, would you say Nintendo undershipped, or just couldn't produce enough copies for the US in time?

I think retailers are to blame here. Nintendo can't ship what stores don't buy and final "Day 1" orders for the game were made well over a month ago. Very few preorders for the game were made and retailers knew that it was big in Japan, but possibly thought it may not transition well to the US and thought DS sales overall were too low and didn't want to get caught with excess stock.

But, now, it seems like Nintendo doesn't have the stock ready for subsequent shipments.
 

Izzy

Banned
sonycowboy said:
Madden will be the first software to push PSP's since launch. I don't think Burnout will sell systems and it may not even do as well as Midnight Club 3, which is a relatively big seller on all systems.

Maybe, and maybe not. If I'm not mistaken, Madden's release date is September 27. IMO, that's too late in the month to significantly influence hardware sales.
 
Izzy said:
Maybe, and maybe not. If I'm not mistaken, Madden's release date is September 27. IMO, that's too late in the month to significantly influence hardware sales.

True. And I'm similarly unconvinced that it will push PSP HW. But, it has the best chance of any game yet.
 
bunkum said:
Hi guys and girls,

been off line ,guess u want some numbers

Only 3 > 100k

PS2 MADDEN NFL 06 $71,814,740 1,461,380
XBX MADDEN NFL 06 $33,648,820 682,665
PS2 NCAA FOOTBALL 06 $5,811,327 121,553

Other #1s

GCN MADDEN NFL 06 $3,979,524 80,939
GBA POKEMON EMERALD $2,831,133 81,239
NDS NINTENDOGS: DACHSHUND & FRIENDS $2,519,540 81,979
PSP MIDNIGHT CLUB 3: DUB EDITION $2,058,433 41,980


I'll do the normal scam sometime laters.

OUCH OUCH OUCH at Madden numbers

August 2004, Total Madden sales 2,130,738 (PS2/CE, XBX, GC)
August 2005, Total Madden sales 2,224,984 (PS2, XBX, GC)

A whopping increase of 94,246 units. Hey EA, was it worth taking NFL exclusive license???
 

Izzy

Banned
sonycowboy said:
True. And I'm similarly unconvinced that it will push PSP HW. But, it has the best chance of any game yet.

Agreed. Too bad EA's timing is pretty poor. It should have been early-mid Sep.
 

donny2112

Member
Izzy said:
Maybe, and maybe not. If I'm not mistaken, Madden's release date is September 27. IMO, that's too late in the month to significantly influence hardware sales.

I was under the impression that it was coming out earlier in the month, but I haven't kept up on its release date. If it is planned to be released when you say, I agree that it would probably be "too late in the month to significantly influence hardware sales."

With Madden PSP coming out at the end of September and GTA:LCS coming out at the beginning of October (right?), October PSP sales should be quite high.
 

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
Amused_To_Death said:
OUCH OUCH OUCH at Madden numbers

August 2004, Total Madden sales 2,130,738 (PS2/CE, XBX, GC)
August 2005, Total Madden sales 2,224,984 (PS2, XBX, GC)

A whopping increase of 94,246 units. Hey EA, was it worth taking NFL exclusive license???

It's going to take more than the first month of sales to find out the answer to that question... Hell it might even take another revision or 2 of Madden to find out the real answer...
 

Mrbob

Member
Amused_To_Death said:
OUCH OUCH OUCH at Madden numbers

August 2004, Total Madden sales 2,130,738 (PS2/CE, XBX, GC)
August 2005, Total Madden sales 2,224,984 (PS2, XBX, GC)

A whopping increase of 94,246 units. Hey EA, was it worth taking NFL exclusive license???

PSP and X360 Madden has yet to come out. With two new platforms to push the game on (Two more with PS3 and GC next year), I'd say the NFL license is worth it to maximize sales on all platforms.

BTW the PSP version of Madden 06 ships September 20.
 
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