http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/09/02/news_6132469.html
The channel checks at Wedbush Morgan Securities are in and the winner in the revenue race for August is....well, no one.
Analysts Michael Pachter and Edward Woo are estimating that when data trackers NPD release August sales statistics next week, the tally will show revenues for the month to be slightly off those reported for the same month a year ago. The duo are forecasting sales console games of $330 million for August 2005, down 2 percent from last year's August tally of $337 million.
By publisher, the analysts see the following: Activision driving $18 million in revs, off 16 percent from over last August; Atari picking up $5 million; off 53 percent; Electronic Arts banking $160 million, 14 percent higher; Majesco driving $3 million, down 7 percent; Midway tallying $3 million, off 37 percent; Take-Two taking in $16 million, off 35 percent; and THQ collecting $20 million from sales, up 67 percent over last August.
The share split for the month is as follows:
Aug 2005 (est.) vs Aug 2004 (actual)
Activision - 5.5 vs. 6.3 percent
Atari - 1.5 vs. 3.2 percent
EA - 48.5 vs. 41.7 percent
Majesco - 0.9 vs. 1.0 percent
Midway - 0.9 vs. 1.4 percent
Take-Two - 4.8 vs. 7.3 percent
THQ - 6.1 vs. 3.5 percent
Top sellers for August '05 have been pegged as Madden NFL 06 (PS2, Xbox, GC, PC, GBA, DS) and Nintendos Nintendogs (DS). EA's NCAA Football 06 (PS2, Xbox), Activisions Fantastic Four (PS2, Xbox, GCN, GBA, PC), THQs Destroy All Humans! (PS2, Xbox), and Nintendos Pokemon Emerald (GBA) are also predict to be among the month's bestsellers.
In the hardware camp, the two said they expect Microsoft to maintain current level pricing for the current-gen Xbox through the launch of the 360. "Should Microsoft choose to maintain pricing for the Xbox, we believe that Sony will cut price on the PS2 in order to capture incremental market share in front of the launch of the Xbox 360," the analysts said. "We believe that Sonys PS2 shipment forecast of 13 million units worldwide does not incorporate a price cut this year, and should Sony cut the PS2 price, we believe that it will revise its PS2 shipment forecast upward by 2-3 million units."
Revenues are remaining as strong as they are due to the generally higher-priced hand-held games for both the PSP and DS. Average selling prices for other consoles games are trending down, according to Pachter and Woo.
As far as how investors and the markets are expected to react, Pachter and Woo say that given "valuations for the US publishers have climbed over the past several months," current valuations will likely hold "as many may perceive sales strength this far into the year as signaling a positive trend for the balance of 2005."
Wedbush expects NPD data to be released next Thursday after the markets close.
The channel checks at Wedbush Morgan Securities are in and the winner in the revenue race for August is....well, no one.
Analysts Michael Pachter and Edward Woo are estimating that when data trackers NPD release August sales statistics next week, the tally will show revenues for the month to be slightly off those reported for the same month a year ago. The duo are forecasting sales console games of $330 million for August 2005, down 2 percent from last year's August tally of $337 million.
By publisher, the analysts see the following: Activision driving $18 million in revs, off 16 percent from over last August; Atari picking up $5 million; off 53 percent; Electronic Arts banking $160 million, 14 percent higher; Majesco driving $3 million, down 7 percent; Midway tallying $3 million, off 37 percent; Take-Two taking in $16 million, off 35 percent; and THQ collecting $20 million from sales, up 67 percent over last August.
The share split for the month is as follows:
Aug 2005 (est.) vs Aug 2004 (actual)
Activision - 5.5 vs. 6.3 percent
Atari - 1.5 vs. 3.2 percent
EA - 48.5 vs. 41.7 percent
Majesco - 0.9 vs. 1.0 percent
Midway - 0.9 vs. 1.4 percent
Take-Two - 4.8 vs. 7.3 percent
THQ - 6.1 vs. 3.5 percent
Top sellers for August '05 have been pegged as Madden NFL 06 (PS2, Xbox, GC, PC, GBA, DS) and Nintendos Nintendogs (DS). EA's NCAA Football 06 (PS2, Xbox), Activisions Fantastic Four (PS2, Xbox, GCN, GBA, PC), THQs Destroy All Humans! (PS2, Xbox), and Nintendos Pokemon Emerald (GBA) are also predict to be among the month's bestsellers.
In the hardware camp, the two said they expect Microsoft to maintain current level pricing for the current-gen Xbox through the launch of the 360. "Should Microsoft choose to maintain pricing for the Xbox, we believe that Sony will cut price on the PS2 in order to capture incremental market share in front of the launch of the Xbox 360," the analysts said. "We believe that Sonys PS2 shipment forecast of 13 million units worldwide does not incorporate a price cut this year, and should Sony cut the PS2 price, we believe that it will revise its PS2 shipment forecast upward by 2-3 million units."
Revenues are remaining as strong as they are due to the generally higher-priced hand-held games for both the PSP and DS. Average selling prices for other consoles games are trending down, according to Pachter and Woo.
As far as how investors and the markets are expected to react, Pachter and Woo say that given "valuations for the US publishers have climbed over the past several months," current valuations will likely hold "as many may perceive sales strength this far into the year as signaling a positive trend for the balance of 2005."
Wedbush expects NPD data to be released next Thursday after the markets close.
