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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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    886
  • Poll closed .
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Ar¢tos

Member
Yes, I think the CMA will be given no option but to offer potential remedies in the end.
After being extensively ridiculed, bullied and threatened by MS and MS shills, even if the CAT does order the CMA to reevaluate, they will most likely still block it or, just to say they changed something, they'll approve on the condition of divestment, something MS will NEVER accept.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
william is saying that the experts microsoft wants to bring are shills known for working for them :messenger_tears_of_joy:

We may actually see SoloKingRobert SoloKingRobert ?!

Trying Not To Laugh Rooster Teeth GIF by Achievement Hunter
 

reksveks

Member
Some one is theorizing that the FTC are going to file their injunction soon.

Take that with a pinch of salt.

 
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Bernoulli

M2 slut
MLex reports that Microsoft and Activision can expect the FTC injunction request in federal court today!

- The Federal Trade Commission is planning to file a preliminary injunction request in federal court today to stop the deal from closing.

- The FTC anticipates that the parties are moving to speed up the closing date of the transaction, that's why the FTC will seek a temporary order in federal court preventing that from happening. The agency would need to act before the companies close the transaction, which would otherwise make a preliminary injunction moot.

- The FTC wants to avoid another Illumina-Grail case, where it filed a preliminary injunction request and a complaint at its administrative court, but later dropped the preliminary injunction because the European Commission was still reviewing the deal. Then Illumina ended up closing the deal.

- In order to be granted a preliminary injunction from a judge, the FTC needs to show that there's an imminent risk that the companies would close the deal.

- In the gamer's lawsuit, a federal judge in California declined to issue a preliminary injunction blocking the deal from closing.
 

Topher

Gold Member
I'm confused... CMA blocked the deal so this can't move forward regardless, right? What are they worried about then?

Remember though, MLex reported that Microsoft was "looking into" ways of closing despite the CMA's order. Could be that is enough for FTC to seek an injunction.

Microsoft has to play this game carefully. What they do in UK can impact what happens in the US, and vice versa. In this case, it may be that all Microsoft's posturing (if that is what it is) may come back to bite them.
 

Sanepar

Member
MLex reports that Microsoft and Activision can expect the FTC injunction request in federal court today!

- The Federal Trade Commission is planning to file a preliminary injunction request in federal court today to stop the deal from closing.

- The FTC anticipates that the parties are moving to speed up the closing date of the transaction, that's why the FTC will seek a temporary order in federal court preventing that from happening. The agency would need to act before the companies close the transaction, which would otherwise make a preliminary injunction moot.

- The FTC wants to avoid another Illumina-Grail case, where it filed a preliminary injunction request and a complaint at its administrative court, but later dropped the preliminary injunction because the European Commission was still reviewing the deal. Then Illumina ended up closing the deal.

- In order to be granted a preliminary injunction from a judge, the FTC needs to show that there's an imminent risk that the companies would close the deal.

- In the gamer's lawsuit, a federal judge in California declined to issue a preliminary injunction blocking the deal from closing.
This just prove the deal is close to be done.
 

X-Wing

Member
People are cheering on ERA for a big win from Microsoft on today's audience at the CAT. I don't seem to find much explanation on why, anyone has any clue?
 

X-Wing

Member
Same question. I don't think they can close at this point because the contract was dependent on the CMA's approval.
Well... The deal is now in state of appeal, so some are theorizing that Microsoft could close it.
CMA can get a court order issued to block it though apparently.
 

Elios83

Member
MLex reports that Microsoft and Activision can expect the FTC injunction request in federal court today!

- The Federal Trade Commission is planning to file a preliminary injunction request in federal court today to stop the deal from closing.

- The FTC anticipates that the parties are moving to speed up the closing date of the transaction, that's why the FTC will seek a temporary order in federal court preventing that from happening. The agency would need to act before the companies close the transaction, which would otherwise make a preliminary injunction moot.

- The FTC wants to avoid another Illumina-Grail case, where it filed a preliminary injunction request and a complaint at its administrative court, but later dropped the preliminary injunction because the European Commission was still reviewing the deal. Then Illumina ended up closing the deal.

- In order to be granted a preliminary injunction from a judge, the FTC needs to show that there's an imminent risk that the companies would close the deal.

- In the gamer's lawsuit, a federal judge in California declined to issue a preliminary injunction blocking the deal from closing.

I wonder if FTC wants to seize the opportunity of the recent reports that Microsoft might be considering to bypass the CMA ruling and use them as a proof of immediate danger to reinforce the CMA's stance and make sure there is no way they can avoid re-negotiation and closing the deal in any way before the end of July.
If this report is true.
 

X-Wing

Member
I wonder if FTC wants to seize the opportunity of the recent reports that Microsoft might be considering to bypass the CMA ruling and use them as a proof of immediate danger to reinforce the CMA's stance and make sure there is no way they can avoid re-negotiation and closing the deal in any way before the end of July.
If this report is true.
Won’t the FTC have to have some kind of evidence for the injunction to be issued?
 

NickFire

Member
The contract depended on CMA's approval -- which they did not get.

I don't believe closing the acquisition is even an option. This all seems like smoke to me. Maybe even tricking FTC into filing an injunction and abandoning their previous plan?
I think some people have misunderstood how a requirement for CMA to approve would relate to closing. There is a 98-99% chance that a CMA rejection would only protect MS from being forced to close (and pay full amount). Regulatory approvals don't matter to the seller nearly as much. Activision's current shareholders don't care if the company ceases operations after they get paid for their shares. Activision shareholders are unlikely to care unless they have obligations they would be personally liable for if Activision operations in UK shut down after MS buys the shares.
 

Elios83

Member
Won’t the FTC have to have some kind of evidence for the injunction to be issued?
That is why I'm speculating there might be some evidence relatively to the nature of the recent reports about them considering ways to go ahead irrespective of normal legal procedures.
Also this move could be an assist to make the CMA's case stronger with CAT.
But we need to find out if the thing is true first of all and then on which grounds FTC is moving.
 
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So if FTC files an injunction to stop the deal and they lose in court which is the most likely scenario according to analysts then wouldn't this just help MS in their appeal to CAT? Filing the injunction speeds up the process right. I dont know what is going on anymore.
 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
I think some people have misunderstood how a requirement for CMA to approve would relate to closing. There is a 98-99% chance that a CMA rejection would only protect MS from being forced to close (and pay full amount). Regulatory approvals don't matter to the seller nearly as much. Activision's current shareholders don't care if the company ceases operations after they get paid for their shares. Activision shareholders are unlikely to care unless they have obligations they would be personally liable for if Activision operations in UK shut down after MS buys the shares.
Yeah I pointed this out earlier in the thread. Mergers often occur where the purchasing company just wants to mothball the company they are buying.
 

Elios83

Member
So if FTC files an injunction to stop the deal and they lose in court which is the most likely scenario according to analysts then wouldn't this just help MS in their appeal to CAT? Filing the injunction speeds up the process right. I dont know what is going on anymore.

Yes it doesn't make a lot of sense unless they're basically gambling.
They know this deal won't survive if not closed in some way by July.
They want to make sure the possibility of closing without the UK can't be taken because they will ask to block as well with a preliminary injunction enforcing the UK's block.

The whole thing has sense assuming they're betting the house on no re-negotiation will be possible otherwise it seems to be pointlessly risky.
We'll see if the reports are true.
 
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X-Wing

Member
The FTC has avoided the injunction though because they knew they had a weak case. What changed? Are they desperate or do they have new found evidence that gives them the upper hand?
I wish I could be behind the curtains sometimes to know all these secrets.
 
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splattered

Member
The FTC has avoided the injunction though because they knew they had a weak case. What changed? Are they desperate or do they have new found evidence that gives them the upper hand?
I wish I could be behind the curtains sometimes to know all these secrets.

Sort of feels like they're just trying to rush to do what they can while they can? Everyone keeps dancing around saying the deal is dead/blocked now but from CMA/FTA actions right now that doesn't seem at all to be the case... dunno how but whatever.
 

NickFire

Member
Won’t the FTC have to have some kind of evidence for the injunction to be issued?
In a nutshell (and unless there are specific rules for these kinds of cases that stray from the ordinary), for a preliminary injunction:

1) The FTC would have to show some level of likely success after trial. Does not mean that have to prove they will win. Only that they have a decent enough chance.

2) They would also need to show some sort of potential imminent harm (such as closure and difficulty to unwind).

The reports of intent to close despite the CMA appeal would be enough to open the door on the second requirement. MS would get a chance to deny that though (if not true of course).

The FTC has avoided the injunction though because they knew they had a weak case. What changed?

You do not know this. They might have felt they couldn't prove imminent harm due to other countries still reviewing for all we know. Would be unrelated to the merits of their own case. They could also have been "lazy" (for lack of a better term only), in that they figured they would never need to go this far because of confidence the deal would end before they needed to.
 

X-Wing

Member
In a nutshell (and unless there are specific rules for these kinds of cases that stray from the ordinary), for a preliminary injunction:

1) The FTC would have to show some level of likely success after trial. Does not mean that have to prove they will win. Only that they have a decent enough chance.

2) They would also need to show some sort of potential imminent harm (such as closure and difficulty to unwind).

The reports of intent to close despite the CMA appeal would be enough to open the door on the second requirement. MS would get a chance to deny that though (if not true of course).



You do not know this. They might have felt they couldn't prove imminent harm due to other countries still reviewing for all we know. Would be unrelated to the merits of their own case. They could also have been "lazy" (for lack of a better term only), in that they figured they would never need to go this far because of confidence the deal would end before they needed to.

alright, thanks!


The Federal Trade Commission is set to file for an injunction seeking to block Microsoft’s proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.

The FTC had already sued to block the $68.7 billion acquisition, but chose to bring the case before its internal administrative law judge. Through that trial-like process, the ALJ would make an initial decision that could be appealed to the full commission for a vote. After that, Microsoft could appeal to a federal court should the decision not go its way.

By filing for an injunction, the FTC is seeking to stop the acquisition from going through before its July 18 deadline.

Microsoft told CNBC it would welcome the injunction as it would bring the case before a federal judge faster.
 
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