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Exploration of Probability of a UAP Seen on Earth Originating from Another Planet

Just a jump and there's nothing wrong with using your imagination but when it comes to uap/ufo's there is zero evidence. None. Zilch. Natta.
Zero evidence as to their origin, I agree, but are you saying there's zero evidence of UAPs/UFOs at all?

This article is behind a paywall, but I spent the $1 for a 3-month subscription to read it again just now. This is the article that made me change my mind on the existence of UAPs back in 2017:
 
You're gonna love this...

Kinetic energy.

Speed of 14 989 622.9 m/s (5% of the speed of light).

Mass of a single grain of dust: 0.0044 kg.

Kinetic force of dust grain striking drone travelling at 5% the speed of light, in one second, with minimal deformation: 49,431.535 Giga Newtons, or 5040 megatons.

Force of Hiroshima atomic detonation in megatons: 0.015.

Canadian Thank You GIF by NETFLIX
What am I missing? This is what I get:

KE = 1/2mv^2
KE in Joules:
m = 0.0044kg (grain of dust)
v = 14,989,622 m/s (5% light-speed)
KE = 494,315,288,946J

Joules to Megatons:
1J = 2.3900573613767E-16 Megaton

494,315,288,946J = 0.0001181442 Megatons

-----------------

What would be the odds of running into dust? This article was interesting regarding that:


Some excerpts:

"The goal of Breakthrough Starshot is to accelerate its craft to about 20 percent the speed of light. At that speed, even individual atoms can damage the vehicle, and a collision with a bit of dust could be catastrophic. So the team set out to quantify just how risky these collisions could be."

"But a sufficiently large dust particle will create a collision energetic enough to destroy a craft. And "sufficiently large" isn't very big; the authors estimate that it only has to be 15 micrometers across to kill off the craft. Fortunately, dust particles this size are rare, and the authors calculate the odds of running into one at 10^50 to one against."

"Overall, the authors find the effect of gas to be minor and only likely to cause damage down to a depth of 0.1 millimeters. Dust, however, is a different story. It will evaporate about 1.5 millimeters off the surface of the spacecraft, and melting will happen at depths of up to 10 millimeters. When every gram counts, this could be significant."


I believe they're talking about traveling to a single star, so let's say the 10^50-to-one odds are based on traveling 5 light-years. If a craft traveled the entire diameter of the Milky Way, that'd be 100,000 light years, so let's say the odds are 20,000x (100,000/5) more likely, which would make it: 5^45-to-one odds.
 
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FunkMiller

Member
What am I missing? This is what I get:

KE = 1/2mv^2
KE in Joules:
m = 0.0044kg (grain of dust)
v = 14,989,622 m/s (5% light-speed)
KE = 494,315,288,946J

Joules to Megatons:
1J = 2.3900573613767E-16 Megaton

494,315,288,946J = 0.0001181442 Megatons

-----------------

What would be the odds of running into dust? This article was interesting regarding that:


Some excerpts:

"The goal of Breakthrough Starshot is to accelerate its craft to about 20 percent the speed of light. At that speed, even individual atoms can damage the vehicle, and a collision with a bit of dust could be catastrophic. So the team set out to quantify just how risky these collisions could be."

"But a sufficiently large dust particle will create a collision energetic enough to destroy a craft. And "sufficiently large" isn't very big; the authors estimate that it only has to be 15 micrometers across to kill off the craft. Fortunately, dust particles this size are rare, and the authors calculate the odds of running into one at 10^50 to one against."

"Overall, the authors find the effect of gas to be minor and only likely to cause damage down to a depth of 0.1 millimeters. Dust, however, is a different story. It will evaporate about 1.5 millimeters off the surface of the spacecraft, and melting will happen at depths of up to 10 millimeters. When every gram counts, this could be significant."


I believe they're talking about traveling to a single star, so let's say the 10^50-to-one odds are based on traveling 5 light-years. If a craft traveled the entire diameter of the Milky Way, that'd be 100,000 light years, so let's say the odds are 20,000x (100,000/5) more likely, which would make it:

Yeah, that article is... weird. 'Dust' is extremely common in space.

https://herscheltelescope.org.uk/science/infrared/dust/

https://www.quantamagazine.org/matt...-tell-the-story-of-the-solar-system-20210204/

https://earthsky.org/space/dust-in-space-10-cool-things/

And never mind dust, there's a lot of other larger shit to worry about that at sub-light speed would ruin your day pretty quickly.

I got the conversion of newtons (measurement of force) to megatonnes from this calculator:

https://www.convertunits.com/from/newton/to/megaton

Or this one:

https://www.kylesconverter.com/mass/newtons-to-megatonnes

Idiotically high calculation is fun.
 
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Yeah, that article is... weird. 'Dust' is extremely common in space.

https://herscheltelescope.org.uk/science/infrared/dust/

https://www.quantamagazine.org/matt...-tell-the-story-of-the-solar-system-20210204/

https://earthsky.org/space/dust-in-space-10-cool-things/

And never mind dust, there's a lot of other larger shit to worry about that at sub-light speed would ruin your day pretty quickly.

I got the conversion of newtons (measurement of force) to megatonnes from this calculator:

https://www.convertunits.com/from/newton/to/megaton

Or this one:

https://www.kylesconverter.com/mass/newtons-to-megatonnes

Idiotically high calculation is fun.
How did you get from mass and velocity to a Newton?
 
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FunkMiller

Member
How did you get from mass and velocity to a Newton?

Newtons are how you measure force impact. So, the force that the dust would impact on the surface of the drone. That's very different from how much energy would be produced by the impact. Kinda like if you crash two cars together, the amount of force imparted is far higher than the amount of energy produced.
 
Newtons are how you measure force impact. So, the force that the dust would impact on the surface of the drone. That's very different from how much energy would be produced by the impact. Kinda like if you crash two cars together, the amount of force imparted is far higher than the amount of energy produced.
Ok, I'm still curious how you calculated it.
 

FunkMiller

Member
Ok, I'm still curious how you calculated it.

Size of dust travelling at that speed, imparts that many newtons, and that many newtons equals that many megatons.

Your energy calculation is spot on though. The collision wouldn't create much light or heat, but a whole shit ton of damage.

Edit: just for shits and giggles I calculated a chicken (5lb & 20 inches) hitting the drone at just under the speed of light:

16366384 megatons.

200.gif
 
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Size of dust travelling at that speed, imparts that many newtons, and that many newtons equals that many megatons.

Your energy calculation is spot on though. The collision wouldn't create much light or heat, but a whole shit ton of damage.
I meant more in terms of the actual mathematical formula you used. Been trying to replicate it but haven't been able to.
 

Romulus

Member
Okay so science and technology have been a state of change since humans evolved, but let's pretend we're at the apex of science and technology now, in this very moment?

A measly 100 years ago our conversations based on science and travel would be very different, but in another 100-1000 years they'll be exact the same? How can people fall into that trap of thinking their lifetime represents the pinnacle of technology? Or even begin to forecast what is it possible when we're infants in terms of space travel?

We're proven to suck at it. Remember the moon mission in 1969? Took 10 years of planning. I was listening to nasa recently about planning a new mission would take 10 years lmao.

This thread reminds me of listening to my young teenage boys talk about life. They regurgitate some of what adults(scientists)say and fill in the gaps with nonsensical gibberish.

A better analogy would be listening to our best scientists talking about flight being impossible, 50 years later commercial airliners were flying people everywhere lol

Not saying we'll be traveling the stars in 50 years, not even close.
 

EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
Grildon is closer to correct and has roughly the right order of magnitude. A speck of dust won't produce megatons of kinetic energy on impact (but it's still significant).

Gotta use the relativistic formula at fractions of the speed of light though, not classical mechanics, Grildon Tundy Grildon Tundy , to get an accurate result. But at 5% light speed it's not a huge difference.

 

FunkMiller

Member
Grildon is closer to correct and has roughly the right order of magnitude. A speck of dust won't produce megatons of kinetic energy on impact (but it's still significant).

Gotta use the relativistic formula at fractions of the speed of light though, not classical mechanics, Grildon Tundy Grildon Tundy , to get an accurate result. But at 5% light speed it's not a huge difference.


But I like classical mechanics. I'm old. "lollipop_disappointed:
 

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
What am I missing? This is what I get:

KE = 1/2mv^2
KE in Joules:
m = 0.0044kg (grain of dust)
v = 14,989,622 m/s (5% light-speed)
KE = 494,315,288,946J

Joules to Megatons:
1J = 2.3900573613767E-16 Megaton

494,315,288,946J = 0.0001181442 Megatons

Yup, which is nearly 500,000 megajoules (it's actually 495,244 MJ but whatever) which is almost the same amount of energy as 20,000 Navy railgun shots assuming each railgun shot is 25MJ.
 

FunkMiller

Member
Still the go-to for almost any real-world scenario on Earth! Starts hitting limitations when you get to things like GPS, which needs to incorporate special and general relativity to remain accurate.

Ah... we're getting into the whole one way speed of light vs two way speed of light thing at this point, aren't we? The fact that we can never actually record the speed of light going one way because any measuring device would necessarily be wrong at the other end... because of the speed of light, bakes my noodle completely.
 
Grildon is closer to correct and has roughly the right order of magnitude. A speck of dust won't produce megatons of kinetic energy on impact (but it's still significant).

Gotta use the relativistic formula at fractions of the speed of light though, not classical mechanics, Grildon Tundy Grildon Tundy , to get an accurate result. But at 5% light speed it's not a huge difference.

Thanks EviLore EviLore & FunkMiller FunkMiller for indulging me and attempting to educate.

If I'm understanding what I've been reading, it's kind of unknown as to whether all that force would be dispersed through the craft itself (i.e. "kaboom") or if it'd be a clean through-and-through like you see with some bullet impacts, for instance. Either way, it's enough energy to put a craft out of commission.

So I think the question is "how likely would it be that a craft hits an object that can mess it up?", and I've been reading and seeing conflicting information on that. So I gave up and decided to ask ChatGPT (which I've hardly used), and holy crap, this thing is awesome! Key takeaway: While the risk of encountering space debris exists, the likelihood of it causing significant damage to a spacecraft traveling across the Milky Way at 5% the speed of light is considered extremely low.

Here's what it said in full:

Me: "If a spacecraft travels the diameter of the Milky Way at 5% the speed of light, how likely is it to hit a piece of space debris that would put the spacecraft out of commission?"

ChatGPT: "Calculating the exact probability of a spacecraft hitting a piece of space debris is quite challenging due to various factors, including the unknown distribution and density of debris throughout the Milky Way. However, I can provide you with some general information.

Firstly, it's important to note that space debris is a significant concern in Earth's orbit, where it accumulates due to human activities. However, beyond our solar system, the density of space debris decreases significantly.

Assuming a spacecraft travels at 5% the speed of light and covers the diameter of the Milky Way, which is approximately 100,000 light-years, it would take roughly 2 million years to complete the journey. During this exceptionally long period, it is highly unlikely for a spacecraft to encounter a single piece of space debris that would put it out of commission.

In interstellar space, the density of particles or larger debris capable of damaging a spacecraft is incredibly low.
Nevertheless, space agencies and organizations take precautions to protect their spacecraft by employing shielding, trajectory planning, and avoidance strategies.

While the risk of encountering space debris exists, the likelihood of it causing significant damage to a spacecraft traveling across the Milky Way at 5% the speed of light is considered extremely low"
 
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EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
Ah... we're getting into the whole one way speed of light vs two way speed of light thing at this point, aren't we? The fact that we can never actually record the speed of light going one way because any measuring device would necessarily be wrong at the other end... because of the speed of light, bakes my noodle completely.
The issues are time dilation due to the speeds that satellites move in orbit, and the difference in gravitational effects near the Earth's surface vs in orbit. The former gets corrected via special relativity and the latter via general relativity. Here's a brief overview:

To achieve this level of precision, the clock ticks from the GPS satellites must be known to an accuracy of 20-30 nanoseconds. However, because the satellites are constantly moving relative to observers on the Earth, effects predicted by the Special and General theories of Relativity must be taken into account to achieve the desired 20-30 nanosecond accuracy.

Because an observer on the ground sees the satellites in motion relative to them, Special Relativity predicts that we should see their clocks ticking more slowly (see the Special Relativity lecture). Special Relativity predicts that the on-board atomic clocks on the satellites should fall behind clocks on the ground by about 7 microseconds per day because of the slower ticking rate due to the time dilation effect of their relative motion [2].

Further, the satellites are in orbits high above the Earth, where the curvature of spacetime due to the Earth's mass is less than it is at the Earth's surface. A prediction of General Relativity is that clocks closer to a massive object will seem to tick more slowly than those located further away (see the Black Holes lecture). As such, when viewed from the surface of the Earth, the clocks on the satellites appear to be ticking faster than identical clocks on the ground. A calculation using General Relativity predicts that the clocks in each GPS satellite should get ahead of ground-based clocks by 45 microseconds per day.


The combination of these two relativitic effects means that the clocks on-board each satellite should tick faster than identical clocks on the ground by about 38 microseconds per day (45-7=38)! This sounds small, but the high-precision required of the GPS system requires nanosecond accuracy, and 38 microseconds is 38,000 nanoseconds. If these effects were not properly taken into account, a navigational fix based on the GPS constellation would be false after only 2 minutes, and errors in global positions would continue to accumulate at a rate of about 10 kilometers each day! The whole system would be utterly worthless for navigation in a very short time.

The engineers who designed the GPS system included these relativistic effects when they designed and deployed the system. For example, to counteract the General Relativistic effect once on orbit, the onboard clocks were designed to "tick" at a slower frequency than ground reference clocks, so that once they were in their proper orbit stations their clocks would appear to tick at about the correct rate as compared to the reference atomic clocks at the GPS ground stations. Further, each GPS receiver has built into it a microcomputer that, in addition to performing the calculation of position using 3D trilateration, will also compute any additional special relativistic timing calculations required [3], using data provided by the satellites.
 

FunkMiller

Member
Thanks EviLore EviLore & FunkMiller FunkMiller for indulging me and attempting to educate.

If I'm understanding what I've been reading, it's kind of unknown as to whether all that force would be dispersed through the craft itself (i.e. "kaboom") or if it'd be a clean through-and-through like you see with some bullet impacts, for instance. Either way, it's enough energy to put a craft out of commission.

So I think the question is "how likely would it be that a craft hits an object that can mess it up?", and I've been reading and seeing conflicting information on that. So I gave up and decided to ask ChatGPT (which I've hardly used), and holy crap, this thing is awesome! Key takeaway: While the risk of encountering space debris exists, the likelihood of it causing significant damage to a spacecraft traveling across the Milky Way at 5% the speed of light is considered extremely low.

Here's what it said in full:

Me: "If a spacecraft travels the diameter of the Milky Way at 5% the speed of light, how likely is it to hit a piece of space debris that would put the spacecraft out of commission?"

ChatGPT: "Calculating the exact probability of a spacecraft hitting a piece of space debris is quite challenging due to various factors, including the unknown distribution and density of debris throughout the Milky Way. However, I can provide you with some general information.

Firstly, it's important to note that space debris is a significant concern in Earth's orbit, where it accumulates due to human activities. However, beyond our solar system, the density of space debris decreases significantly.

Assuming a spacecraft travels at 5% the speed of light and covers the diameter of the Milky Way, which is approximately 100,000 light-years, it would take roughly 2 million years to complete the journey. During this exceptionally long period, it is highly unlikely for a spacecraft to encounter a single piece of space debris that would put it out of commission.

In interstellar space, the density of particles or larger debris capable of damaging a spacecraft is incredibly low.
Nevertheless, space agencies and organizations take precautions to protect their spacecraft by employing shielding, trajectory planning, and avoidance strategies.

While the risk of encountering space debris exists, the likelihood of it causing significant damage to a spacecraft traveling across the Milky Way at 5% the speed of light is considered extremely low"

Interesting (though my trust when it comes to ChatGPT is somewhat lacking). I've always read that while debris in the interstellar medium is obviously far less than throughout solar systems for obvious reasons, that there is enough there to cause real problems for vehicles travelling at fast enough rates.

Maybe if your theoretical drone avoids all solar systems it would be okay? But then that'd probably add a lot of journey time, the same way that avoiding the shit parts of town would make your drive through it longer.
 
Interesting (though my trust when it comes to ChatGPT is somewhat lacking). I've always read that while debris in the interstellar medium is obviously far less than throughout solar systems for obvious reasons, that there is enough there to cause real problems for vehicles travelling at fast enough rates.

Maybe if your theoretical drone avoids all solar systems it would be okay? But then that'd probably add a lot of journey time, the same way that avoiding the shit parts of town would make your drive through it longer.
ChatGPT is my new best friend. Here's what it said about dangers within our solar system as an example to be extrapolated:

"Although it is difficult to provide an exact probability without specific mission parameters and trajectory details, the likelihood of a spacecraft being hit by a mission-ending debris while traveling at 5% the speed of light in the solar system is generally considered to be extremely low."

Full text:
You: If a spacecraft travels through the solar system at 5% the speed of light, how likely is it to hit a piece of space debris that would put the spacecraft out of commission?

ChatGPT: Determining the likelihood of a spacecraft hitting a piece of space debris depends on several factors, including the density of debris in the spacecraft's path, the size of the debris, and the duration of its journey. While I can provide some general information, please note that a detailed analysis would require specific data and calculations.

The density of space debris can vary significantly in different regions of the solar system. Near Earth, the density is relatively high due to human activities, such as satellite launches and decommissioned satellites. However, as the spacecraft moves away from Earth, the density decreases. Moreover, the likelihood of encountering large, potentially mission-ending debris decreases as well.

Space agencies and organizations like NASA make efforts to track and catalog larger space debris to minimize the risks for spacecraft. For smaller debris that cannot be precisely tracked, estimates are made based on statistical models.

Considering the speed of the spacecraft (5% the speed of light), it is crucial to note that space debris moves at significantly lower speeds, making the chances of a collision even lower. Additionally, space agencies and operators often plan trajectories to avoid known debris regions.

Although it is difficult to provide an exact probability without specific mission parameters and trajectory details, the likelihood of a spacecraft being hit by a mission-ending debris while traveling at 5% the speed of light in the solar system is generally considered to be extremely low.
 

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
ChatGPT is my new best friend. Here's what it said about dangers within our solar system as an example to be extrapolated:

"Although it is difficult to provide an exact probability without specific mission parameters and trajectory details, the likelihood of a spacecraft being hit by a mission-ending debris while traveling at 5% the speed of light in the solar system is generally considered to be extremely low."

That's not the only environment the drones would be operating in. This thought experiment is to make you think about the possibility of alien drones visiting Earth, right? Well, the drones, if they're here, would also have to deal with the hazards of Earth (and Mercury and Venus and Mars and Jupiter and Saturn and Neptune etc). The average density of the Milky Way is low enough so that sure, randomly crashing into something isn't high on your list of concerns. However, these drones would necessarily be seeking out places of interest, which probably have more shit flying around.
 

FunkMiller

Member
That's not the only environment the drones would be operating in. This thought experiment is to make you think about the possibility of alien drones visiting Earth, right? Well, the drones, if they're here, would also have to deal with the hazards of Earth (and Mercury and Venus and Mars and Jupiter and Saturn and Neptune etc). The average density of the Milky Way is low enough so that sure, randomly crashing into something isn't high on your list of concerns. However, these drones would necessarily be seeking out places of interest, which probably have more shit flying around.

Like driving through the country and never worrying about crashing into anyone, but then you reach a city, and suddenly the chances greatly escalate. Especially for a craft flying at the kinds of speeds necessary to make any real headway.
 

22:22:22

NO PAIN TRANCE CONTINUE
So many angles to approach this phenomena that goes way back...

I have my ever evolving thoughts but seeing I'm operating from within an active suspension of disposition/judgement I'll won't participate.

Shout out to the OP Grildon Tundy Grildon Tundy for at least approaching this phenomena from a grounded perspective.
 
That's not the only environment the drones would be operating in. This thought experiment is to make you think about the possibility of alien drones visiting Earth, right? Well, the drones, if they're here, would also have to deal with the hazards of Earth (and Mercury and Venus and Mars and Jupiter and Saturn and Neptune etc). The average density of the Milky Way is low enough so that sure, randomly crashing into something isn't high on your list of concerns. However, these drones would necessarily be seeking out places of interest, which probably have more shit flying around.
That's a good callout. I asked my new best friend ChatGPT what would happen if a craft went at 5% light-speed following earth's orbit around the sun and...the outlook is not positive lol

Before, I'd plugged in a wide ballpark allotment of double the time required (starting from 75K to 200M years) to account for stops, repairs, detours. galaxy gap-filling which would include this, but I wish I could get closer to an estimate with numbers with supporting reasoning behind them.

Again, a full simulation would be interesting (to me). My thinking is the drones/crafts would slow down as they near astronomical bodies of interest (just like you drive slower in a city vs on a rural interstate), so I'd want to plug in assumptions like:
1) how long does it take to slow down to "safe" speeds/ramp back up to high-speeds?
2) what are those "safe" speeds?
3) distribution of debris in relation to proximity to an astronomical body
4) how do those detours impact the overall time required to fully map the MW

Guys, it's almost like modeling out a hypothetical full Milky Way mapping done by hypothetical Von Neumann probes of off-world origin while taking into consideration astrophysics, mechanical/observational/communicative/damage-resisting/repair/self-replicating/traversal capabilities of crafts, logistics of resource-gathering/availability, etc...is hard.
 
I am so disappointed right now that the recent exchange led so quickly to a 5 year member permed. I've never seen something like that on here since I came back. Please reconsider.
I didn't realize that this thread would bring out such apparent animosity. That was not my intention, and I'm also disappointed in how it turned out in that regard.

Seems like the topic of non-Earth-originating intelligence is more incendiary than I thought. I'll try and keep that in mind in the future. The thread also has had more responses than I thought it would as a result: pulling a "Facebook" in terms of engagement through divisiveness, if you will.

How would this thread have gone if, instead of positing an off-Earth origin for the drones, it was a thought experiment on how long it'd take humans to map the Milky Way? Probably a lot different, with a lot less input from the community, if I had to guess.
 

FunkMiller

Member
How would this thread have gone if, instead of positing an off-Earth origin for the drones, it was a thought experiment on how long it'd take humans to map the Milky Way?

Ah, see, now you're talking...

All the issues with the improbability of an advanced civilisation having the technology to find us and then visit us, from the frankly idiotically huge gulfs of space go out of the window when you switch it around like that. Self replicating drones built by future humanity making their way out into the galaxy to chart it is a far more likely occurrence.

Some would then turn that around and say, well why can't there be an alien civilisation who could do the same? To which I guess my only sad reply would be that it probably means they don't exist to do it... or are nowhere near advanced enough to do it while our civilisation exists "lollipop_disappointed:

“Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.”

I've depressed myself now. I'm off to find gin.
 
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Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
Guys, it's almost like modeling out a hypothetical full Milky Way mapping done by hypothetical Von Neumann probes of off-world origin while taking into consideration astrophysics, mechanical/observational/communicative/damage-resisting/repair/self-replicating/traversal capabilities of crafts, logistics of resource-gathering/availability, etc...is hard.

Probably why we haven't observed any hard evidence of this. It's also not just enough to plug in the known hazards. There's a lot we don't know about the galaxy. Who knows how many unknown hazards are out there that we can't even plug into our calculations because we don't know they exist.
 

F0rneus

Tears in the rain
The number of planets in our galaxy is around 200 billions I believe? And I think that in the universe that we know about so far, it's in the 500+ quitillions? Chances of alien life? Extremely likely.

Chances of alien civilization sending drones here? About 0%.

Chances of us meeting another sentient species, from another planet? Also around 0%
 
Every progression that humanity makes into signals intelligence and electromagnetic science, the more telling the absolute silence from the cosmos becomes. At what point does a lack of evidence become evidence?
 

Chronicle

Member
Zero evidence as to their origin, I agree, but are you saying there's zero evidence of UAPs/UFOs at all?

This article is behind a paywall, but I spent the $1 for a 3-month subscription to read it again just now. This is the article that made me change my mind on the existence of UAPs back in 2017:
Yes, I'm saying there is no evidence of extraterrestrial crafts. None.
 
Yes, I'm saying there is no evidence of extraterrestrial crafts. None.
Thanks. I agree, because the craft-like UAPs in question have literally only been observed on Earth.

I do wonder what the evidence would have to be to prove they're of off-world origin. I can't think of what would actually confirm that.
 

Quasicat

Member
If there are 500M planets that can support life, let's assume there are 1000s of advanced civilizations that can create a self-replicating drone system that will cover the universe and eventually detect us.

"If the aliens are so smart to build these drones, why are they so dumb to allow them to crash or get captured or even be observed by us?"

I propose Biff's North Korea Theory.

Intelligence follows a normal distribution. Extraterrestrial intelligence will follow this as well. Say we are being observed by 100 drones right now, as I type this. Yeah - 98 of them are going to be made by gigabrain levitating alien geniuses and the drones are fully stealthed and indetectable by us due to our technological inferiority.

But within those 100 civilizations, there's bound to be a North Korea or Iran in there. You know - the misguided civilizations desperate to display strength that the gigabrain aliens look down on. "Oh how cute, Aeon Xii-8 finally got a self-replicating drone out of Galaxy JRA3! They probably should be spending their resources Dyson Sphering their host star but what do we know. Xexexexexexe (<---- this is how they laugh)"

And sure enough the engineering of these trash-tier drones are garbanzo beans and eventually one of them glitches out, enters our atmosphere, and starts zig-zagging 100ft above the ocean in a restricted Air Force testing zone. This is our Tic Tac. The North Korea of a distant galaxy sent it, and we have video of it purely because of their incompetence.
I think this is the best explanation yet when it comes to explaining these events.
 
even if there's life on other planets the distance makes it impractical. And even if one day humans or aliens swap drones, who says there will be anything meaningful in it anyway? People assume it'll be like Independence Day and creatures half way across the galaxy have compatible PCs where all it takes is a Jeff Goldblum dude to hook up a USB.
Assuming op's numbers are right, even if craft crashed here and was transmitting back to home planet, were looking at a few million years before they get the info and make it back here anyway. None of this shit matters unless there's intelligent life in our solar system. And considering how many times I read about meteors whizzing by our planet that we didn't even know were coming until they passed us by....that's a more likely possibility than drones coming from millions of light years away. If there's intelligent life in our solar system, which I'm not saying there is or that I think there is, they're clearly not dumb enough to broadcast it out into the universe and they're clearly smart enough to hide their existence from us. It's only a matter of time before the interstellar Brittish come and colonize us.
 
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simpatico

Member
The response to this has been more interesting than the actual content of the hearing. I can think of no other time in my life when the gov could announce "aliens are real" and get absolute zero response. I think you can read into what this might mean for the meta mindset of the country. Just a really crazy situation from that perspective. Take this exact same news only 10 years ago and it's the only thing being discussed at any workplace with wall to wall TV coverage.
 
The response to this has been more interesting than the actual content of the hearing. I can think of no other time in my life when the gov could announce "aliens are real" and get absolute zero response. I think you can read into what this might mean for the meta mindset of the country. Just a really crazy situation from that perspective. Take this exact same news only 10 years ago and it's the only thing being discussed at any workplace with wall to wall TV coverage.
Fascinating, isn't it?
 

Maiden Voyage

Gold™ Member
The response to this has been more interesting than the actual content of the hearing. I can think of no other time in my life when the gov could announce "aliens are real" and get absolute zero response. I think you can read into what this might mean for the meta mindset of the country. Just a really crazy situation from that perspective. Take this exact same news only 10 years ago and it's the only thing being discussed at any workplace with wall to wall TV coverage.
Because we all knew the truth back in the 90s thanks to a little documentary.
 

FunkMiller

Member
The response to this has been more interesting than the actual content of the hearing. I can think of no other time in my life when the gov could announce "aliens are real" and get absolute zero response. I think you can read into what this might mean for the meta mindset of the country. Just a really crazy situation from that perspective. Take this exact same news only 10 years ago and it's the only thing being discussed at any workplace with wall to wall TV coverage.

If they did announce that with actual proof, it would become the biggest news story in human history. For all of us, not just America.
 
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This is in interesting theory. But for some reason I just find it much more plausible that a civilization figured out a way to bend space to their will, essentially being able to warp large distances in a fraction of the time.

But seeing as we've only just started breaking the surface of A.I., I'm sure self replicating drones could be produced and not only did that but had specific A.I. programming to keep them hidden/out of sight of potential contact or even the capabilities of UAV's where the A.I. would bring it to a certain point and once contact was established a remote operator could take over.
 

Bry0

Member
The response to this has been more interesting than the actual content of the hearing. I can think of no other time in my life when the gov could announce "aliens are real" and get absolute zero response. I think you can read into what this might mean for the meta mindset of the country. Just a really crazy situation from that perspective. Take this exact same news only 10 years ago and it's the only thing being discussed at any workplace with wall to wall TV coverage.
It probably has to do with the continuing lack of proof and yknow, nobody really has any faith in gov institutions at this point, for good reason. This talk has been going on for what, 70 years?

Show the grays and the craft they have, until then nobody outside the uap “community” is gonna care because it hasn’t changed their daily lives at all. If that happens, I promise you it will be a global media phenomenon.
 
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