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Exploration of Probability of a UAP Seen on Earth Originating from Another Planet

Grildon Tundy

Grildon Tundy

Gold Member
Exploration of Probability of a UAP Seen on Earth Originating from Another Planet

I ran some numbers on a pet theory of mine: that the UAPs we've been seeing and hearing about lately originated from somewhere far off and are self-replicating & self-repairing surveillance drones. I don't whole-heartedly ascribe to this concept, but I wanted to see how it looked with some numbers put to it. This thread was inspired by discussions in the Aliens & UFOs thread.

Milky Way Diameter: The Milky Way is ~100,000 light years across. From Earth, the furthest edge of the Milky Way is about 75,000 light years away, or 440,896,902,750,000,000 miles.

Assumption on Drone Origin: It's estimated that 500,000,000 planets in the Milky Way are hospitable for life. Let's assume just ONE of those planets as far away as possible from Earth within the Milky Way is the origin point of these drones.

Assumption on Speed of Drones: The fastest man-made object was the Parker Solar Probe, which went 330,000 miles per hour, or 0.05% the speed of light. If we use this as the top-speed of a drone, it would take 200,000,000 years (1.1% the age of the universe) for a single drone to reach Earth from the furthest point in the Milky Way. Alternatively, the fastest macroscopic mass observed by humans was the surface of a pulsar relative to its center, which went 5% of light speed. If the drones could go that fast, it would take 2,000,000 years (0.01% of the age of the universe). Of course, if a drone could basically go light-speed somehow, it'd take ~75,000 years, or 0.001% of the age of the universe.

Food for Thought: How likely do you think it is that another civilization could have reached the technological capabilities required to start sending drones going at those speeds to Earth between 75K - 200M years ago? In other words, an age-of-universe variance of 0.001% - 1.1%?

Food for Thought #2: How likely do you think it is that only one planet out of 500M (and the furthest one from us, at that) would be the only one to have a civilization that advanced?

Callout: I was going to build in a buffer about how long it would take humans to get from where we are now to tech at the levels we see in the UAPs (my rough estimate would be 100 -10,000 years). But with regards to the length of time it would take to travel the Milky Way (75K - 200M years), it seemed immaterial.

But Grildon Tundy Grildon Tundy , you big dummy, they'd have to know where we are in order to come directly at us that quick! How would they find us?!?!

Milky Way Volume: 8 trillion cubic light-years. Given the above assumptions, the drones would need to scan ~6 trillion cubic light years to find Earth. It's estimated that the Milky Way has 250 billion stars and potentially trillions of planets--so there's lots of raw material to go around for construction and repair.

Observational Capabilities of Drones: As others have pointed out, humans have only been sending out radio wave signals for the past 130 years. So let's say that the drones would have to rely on pure numbers and visual observation to find us. Keep in mind, my assumptions are not that they could have methods of observations unknown to us which would reduce the number of drones & time required.

Assumption on Drone Construction and Observation: Let's say you start with just one drone that can harvest resources common throughout the universe to make a single copy/another version of itself. And both of those drones can then make another round of copies. Even if a single drone was only responsible for observing the 1,000 cubic miles directly around it, within 75 rounds of duplication, you'd have enough drones to observe the 6 trillion cubic light years needed to find Earth. And if you're wondering about whether there's enough material to go around, the mass of the Milky Way is 5.8×10^11 Solar Masses, with only 5% of that being stars and planets I'd assume the drones would use as resources. Assuming a single drone uses 10,000KG of mass for creation and repair, it would take 0.000000000001% of the total mass of planets and stars in the Milky Way to create the 37,778,931,862,957,200,000,000 drones required in this assumption.

Food for Thought #3: How likely do you think it is that these drones would rely on visual detection and not an advanced method of observation unknown to us?

Callout: I think it'd be far more likely that a drone could observe more than 1,000 cubic miles, since they'd be traveling and not stationary, but I'll admit, I don't know how to model out a simulation like that. Not to mention they might have more advanced methods of observation.
 
EviLore

EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
Ah yes, the magical extraterrestrial drones. Where can we empirically observe these drones? Nowhere, you say, just hear about them from occasional eyewitness accounts and vague splotches in photos?

Same BS as it's always been until compelling evidence is demonstrated.
 
sono

sono

Gold Member
Davesky said:
The possibility of them being multidimensional beings could negate the argument based solely on distance.
Click to expand...
This seems to be the way the “mature” arguments about how these craft are here. It sidesteps Einstein and observable universe constraints by creating higher dimensions wormholes. Greer takes it a step further by linking consciousness and remote viewing to this stuff and states Aliens have harnessed this. That is why close encounters people report mind control and our electronic equipment gets shut down how they get the nuke codes etc etc. The theory goes that because they operate that way is the reason our pilots see these objects moving erratically and at huge speeds seemingly free of inertia and can move through air and water effortlessly
 
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PSYGN

PSYGN

Member
Halloween Ghost GIF
 
Crayon

Crayon

Member
That's why I don't think it's a particularly weird idea. Either working or junk devices should be around. If not here yet then in the process of spreading around from their origin.
 
StreetsofBeige

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
even if there's life on other planets the distance makes it impractical. And even if one day humans or aliens swap drones, who says there will be anything meaningful in it anyway? People assume it'll be like Independence Day and creatures half way across the galaxy have compatible PCs where all it takes is a Jeff Goldblum dude to hook up a USB.
 
Crayon

Crayon

Member
StreetsofBeige said:
even if there's life on other planets the distance makes it impractical. And even if one day humans or aliens swap drones, who says there will be anything meaningful in it anyway? People assume it'll be like Independence Day and creatures half way across the galaxy have compatible PCs where all it takes is a Jeff Goldblum dude to hook up a USB.
Click to expand...

I wish you would take a moment to educate yourself.

The "U" in USB stands for UNIVERSAL.
 
Thaedolus

Thaedolus

Gold Member
Aliens exist in the universe that break/transcend the laws of physics as we know them to traverse the universe faster than light and do all sorts of crazy shit?

Seems plausible.

…also they’re too dumb to keep from crashing into the earth and letting the US government capture them!

Tell Me More Jeff Goldblum GIF by National Geographic Channel
 
Romulus

Romulus

Member
EviLore said:
Ah yes, the magical extraterrestrial drones. Where can we empirically observe these drones? Nowhere, you say, just hear about them from occasional eyewitness accounts and vague splotches in photos?

Same BS as it's always been until compelling evidence is demonstrated.
Click to expand...


I mean government videos of said objects is evidence of an unknown. I think people are quick to be personally insulted if you imply aliens etc.

But the pilots, radar operators, nor the task force can figure it out the Nimitz encounter for example. That's a far cry from the BS of old and is a clear step up.

We're left to assume either everyone is lying/mistaken and also the sensor systems malfunctioned at the exact moment the lying took place from the pilots.

Thats a tough one.

I wonder if "vague splotches in photos" or "occasional witnesses" would just progress in a similar manner if better evidence was presented. "Clear pic. Meh, probably cgi or government psyops."
I get the feeling many will just continue to move the needle without a shred of openmindness. That's the main problem to me, this quick draw response to compare events like the Nimitz to something like alien abductions and bullshit. "Must be ALL bullshit then!"

At what point is it concrete evidence? When you see a scientist you don't know confirming said metals are alien? Cnn or fox opinion pieces, scientific papers approved by the entire community?

Because for almost every example above I can say it's bullshit or a government conspiracy.

The issue is this sort of revelation is unlike anything else we've experienced as humans. We're in uncharted territory.
 
EviLore

EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
"A fire-breathing dragon lives in my garage"

Suppose (I'm following a group therapy approach by the psychologist Richard Franklin) I seriously make such an assertion to you. Surely you'd want to check it out, see for yourself. There have been innumerable stories of dragons over the centuries, but no real evidence. What an opportunity!

"Show me," you say. I lead you to my garage. You look inside and see a ladder, empty paint cans, an old tricycle — but no dragon.

"Where's the dragon?" you ask.

"Oh, she's right here," I reply, waving vaguely. "I neglected to mention that she's an invisible dragon."

You propose spreading flour on the floor of the garage to capture the dragon's footprints.

"Good idea," I say, "but this dragon floats in the air."

Then you'll use an infrared sensor to detect the invisible fire.

"Good idea, but the invisible fire is also heatless."

You'll spray-paint the dragon and make her visible.

"Good idea, but she's an incorporeal dragon and the paint won't stick." And so on. I counter every physical test you propose with a special explanation of why it won't work.

Now, what's the difference between an invisible, incorporeal, floating dragon who spits heatless fire and no dragon at all? If there's no way to disprove my contention, no conceivable experiment that would count against it, what does it mean to say that my dragon exists? Your inability to invalidate my hypothesis is not at all the same thing as proving it true. Claims that cannot be tested, assertions immune to disproof are veridically worthless, whatever value they may have in inspiring us or in exciting our sense of wonder. What I'm asking you to do comes down to believing, in the absence of evidence, on my say-so. The only thing you've really learned from my insistence that there's a dragon in my garage is that something funny is going on inside my head. You'd wonder, if no physical tests apply, what convinced me. The possibility that it was a dream or a hallucination would certainly enter your mind. But then, why am I taking it so seriously? Maybe I need help. At the least, maybe I've seriously underestimated human fallibility. Imagine that, despite none of the tests being successful, you wish to be scrupulously open-minded. So you don't outright reject the notion that there's a fire-breathing dragon in my garage. You merely put it on hold. Present evidence is strongly against it, but if a new body of data emerge you're prepared to examine it and see if it convinces you. Surely it's unfair of me to be offended at not being believed; or to criticize you for being stodgy and unimaginative — merely because you rendered the Scottish verdict of "not proved."

Imagine that things had gone otherwise. The dragon is invisible, all right, but footprints are being made in the flour as you watch. Your infrared detector reads off-scale. The spray paint reveals a jagged crest bobbing in the air before you. No matter how skeptical you might have been about the existence of dragons — to say nothing about invisible ones — you must now acknowledge that there's something here, and that in a preliminary way it's consistent with an invisible, fire-breathing dragon.

Now another scenario: Suppose it's not just me. Suppose that several people of your acquaintance, including people who you're pretty sure don't know each other, all tell you that they have dragons in their garages — but in every case the evidence is maddeningly elusive. All of us admit we're disturbed at being gripped by so odd a conviction so ill-supported by the physical evidence. None of us is a lunatic. We speculate about what it would mean if invisible dragons were really hiding out in garages all over the world, with us humans just catching on. I'd rather it not be true, I tell you. But maybe all those ancient European and Chinese myths about dragons weren't myths at all.

Gratifyingly, some dragon-size footprints in the flour are now reported. But they're never made when a skeptic is looking. An alternative explanation presents itself. On close examination it seems clear that the footprints could have been faked. Another dragon enthusiast shows up with a burnt finger and attributes it to a rare physical manifestation of the dragon's fiery breath. But again, other possibilities exist. We understand that there are other ways to burn fingers besides the breath of invisible dragons. Such "evidence" — no matter how important the dragon advocates consider it — is far from compelling. Once again, the only sensible approach is tentatively to reject the dragon hypothesis, to be open to future physical data, and to wonder what the cause might be that so many apparently sane and sober people share the same strange delusion.

-Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
 
Crayon

Crayon

Member
EviLore said:
"A fire-breathing dragon lives in my garage"

Suppose (I'm following a group therapy approach by the psychologist Richard Franklin) I seriously make such an assertion to you. Surely you'd want to check it out, see for yourself. There have been innumerable stories of dragons over the centuries, but no real evidence. What an opportunity!

"Show me," you say. I lead you to my garage. You look inside and see a ladder, empty paint cans, an old tricycle — but no dragon.

"Where's the dragon?" you ask.

"Oh, she's right here," I reply, waving vaguely. "I neglected to mention that she's an invisible dragon."

You propose spreading flour on the floor of the garage to capture the dragon's footprints.

"Good idea," I say, "but this dragon floats in the air."

Then you'll use an infrared sensor to detect the invisible fire.

"Good idea, but the invisible fire is also heatless."

You'll spray-paint the dragon and make her visible.

"Good idea, but she's an incorporeal dragon and the paint won't stick." And so on. I counter every physical test you propose with a special explanation of why it won't work.

Now, what's the difference between an invisible, incorporeal, floating dragon who spits heatless fire and no dragon at all? If there's no way to disprove my contention, no conceivable experiment that would count against it, what does it mean to say that my dragon exists? Your inability to invalidate my hypothesis is not at all the same thing as proving it true. Claims that cannot be tested, assertions immune to disproof are veridically worthless, whatever value they may have in inspiring us or in exciting our sense of wonder. What I'm asking you to do comes down to believing, in the absence of evidence, on my say-so. The only thing you've really learned from my insistence that there's a dragon in my garage is that something funny is going on inside my head. You'd wonder, if no physical tests apply, what convinced me. The possibility that it was a dream or a hallucination would certainly enter your mind. But then, why am I taking it so seriously? Maybe I need help. At the least, maybe I've seriously underestimated human fallibility. Imagine that, despite none of the tests being successful, you wish to be scrupulously open-minded. So you don't outright reject the notion that there's a fire-breathing dragon in my garage. You merely put it on hold. Present evidence is strongly against it, but if a new body of data emerge you're prepared to examine it and see if it convinces you. Surely it's unfair of me to be offended at not being believed; or to criticize you for being stodgy and unimaginative — merely because you rendered the Scottish verdict of "not proved."

Imagine that things had gone otherwise. The dragon is invisible, all right, but footprints are being made in the flour as you watch. Your infrared detector reads off-scale. The spray paint reveals a jagged crest bobbing in the air before you. No matter how skeptical you might have been about the existence of dragons — to say nothing about invisible ones — you must now acknowledge that there's something here, and that in a preliminary way it's consistent with an invisible, fire-breathing dragon.

Now another scenario: Suppose it's not just me. Suppose that several people of your acquaintance, including people who you're pretty sure don't know each other, all tell you that they have dragons in their garages — but in every case the evidence is maddeningly elusive. All of us admit we're disturbed at being gripped by so odd a conviction so ill-supported by the physical evidence. None of us is a lunatic. We speculate about what it would mean if invisible dragons were really hiding out in garages all over the world, with us humans just catching on. I'd rather it not be true, I tell you. But maybe all those ancient European and Chinese myths about dragons weren't myths at all.

Gratifyingly, some dragon-size footprints in the flour are now reported. But they're never made when a skeptic is looking. An alternative explanation presents itself. On close examination it seems clear that the footprints could have been faked. Another dragon enthusiast shows up with a burnt finger and attributes it to a rare physical manifestation of the dragon's fiery breath. But again, other possibilities exist. We understand that there are other ways to burn fingers besides the breath of invisible dragons. Such "evidence" — no matter how important the dragon advocates consider it — is far from compelling. Once again, the only sensible approach is tentatively to reject the dragon hypothesis, to be open to future physical data, and to wonder what the cause might be that so many apparently sane and sober people share the same strange delusion.

-Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
Click to expand...

Sagan was wrong about those samurai crabs. He's retarded.
 
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Grildon Tundy

Grildon Tundy

Gold Member
What is it that people are saying there's no proof of? Because I agree the origin is unknown, but I thought we had proof via the tictac video, as presented by The New York Times, that these things are out there.
 
Dr.D00p

Dr.D00p

Gold Member
Give it up. They aren't here and never have been.

Yes, I believe there is other intelligent life out there, but I also firmly believe the sheer immensity of the universe makes traversing it simply impractical, no matter how advanced.
 
Last edited:
Crayon

Crayon

Member
Dr.D00p said:
Give it up. They aren't here and never have been.

Yes, I believe there is other intelligent life out there, but I also firmly believe the sheer immensity of the universe makes traversing it simply impractical, no matter how advanced.
Click to expand...

It's not just you but I have to ask if these drive by's are understanding the premise of the op at all. The whole premise is that there is a lot of distance out there but a lot of time to cover it.
 
Dr.D00p

Dr.D00p

Gold Member
Crayon said:
It's not just you but I have to ask if these drive by's are understanding the premise of the op at all. The whole premise is that there is a lot of distance out there but a lot of time to cover it.
Click to expand...

There really isn't a lot of time.

For two advanced civilisations to exist at the same time and for them to ever meet, is simply astonishing ly small when factoring in the journey times as well as the sheer unlikely odds that they would ever be heading in the right direction of our Solar System.
 
Winter John

Winter John

Gold Member
You know how many times Steven Greer has been on Rogan’s podcast? Once. That should tell you everything you need to know about Greer. He’s so full of shit even Rogan won’t have him back on his podcast
 
Crayon

Crayon

Member
Dr.D00p said:
There really isn't a lot of time.

For two advanced civilisations to exist at the same time and for them to ever meet, is simply astonishing ly small when factoring in the journey times as well as the sheer unlikely odds that they would ever be heading in the right direction of our Solar System.
Click to expand...

The op is talking about mechanized devices that would self replicate and spread. Importantly, without passing judgement on whether this is the actual case. It's a napkin calculation which is often a good start to discuss something. It used numbers, which helps.

I'm seeing a theme lately describing the universe as "astonishingly, unimaginably, inconceivably " big. In each of these cases I get the feeling that the poster thinks THEY can conceive it lol. Anyway, yes, it is unimaginably big. That's why we should use numbers instead of our imaginations. There's a million numbers in the op. They are even just very rough estimates. It would make all the sense in the world to contest some of the numbers but instead I read cliches.
 
Winter John

Winter John

Gold Member
German Hops said:
Imagine using Joe Rogan as a metric for reality..
Click to expand...
Nobody’s using Rogan as a metric for reality you half bright reject. The point is that Greer is such a lying jackass even someone like Rogan who was all in on the alien stuff wasn’t buying Greer’s shit.
 
German Hops

German Hops

GAF's Nicest Lunch Thief
Winter John said:
Nobody’s using Rogan as a metric for reality you half bright reject. The point is that Greer is such a lying jackass even someone like Rogan who was all in on the alien stuff wasn’t buying Greer’s shit.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I still conclude that you are a dumbass.

You can try to back-pedal all you want.
 
FunkMiller

FunkMiller

Gold Member
OP refers to himself in the third person, and not one of you dozy cunts has made a Rock gag about it yet. Do I have to do every fucking thing myself?

Can You Smell The Rock GIF by WWE
Come The Rock GIF by WWE
Mad The Rock GIF
The Rock Eyebrow GIF


Come on people. We don’t want the aliens thinking we’re slow when they get here.

Also, listen to Carl Sagan about this shit.
 
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TheInfamousKira

TheInfamousKira

Reseterror Resettler
FunkMiller said:
OP refers to himself in the third person, and not one of you dozy cunts has made a Rock gag about it yet. Do I have to do every fucking thing myself?

Can You Smell The Rock GIF by WWE
Come The Rock GIF by WWE
Mad The Rock GIF
The Rock Eyebrow GIF


Come on people. We don’t want the aliens thinking we’re slow when they get here.
Click to expand...

I see your Dwayne and raise you a Cena. With enhanced cloaking technology, they won't see how dumb we are.
 
Winter John

Winter John

Gold Member
German Hops said:
"Lol" my ass.

Let us talk further once you've pulled Joe Rogans cock out of your mouth.
Click to expand...
“Let us talk further.”

Sure, but until I get Rogan’s dick out my mouth, maybe you can answer this question for me. See, I always wondered why it was that every time condescending asshats like you get your fee fees hurt you always start talking like a posh English lady. What is that about?
 
German Hops

German Hops

GAF's Nicest Lunch Thief
Winter John said:
“Let us talk further.”

Sure, but until I get Rogan’s dick out my mouth, maybe you can answer this question for me. See, I always wondered why it was that every time condescending asshats like you get your fee fees hurt you always start talking like a posh English lady. What is that about?
Click to expand...
Posh English lady?

Are you referring to your whore mother?
 
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