• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Starlink missed 2022 revenue projections by $11 billion

winjer

Gold Member

Generating $1.4 billion in revenue across a year would be an impressive feat for most companies, but for Starlink, it's $11 billion less than originally projected. The satellite service also ended 2022 with one million users, or 19 million fewer than it predicted.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Elon Musk made a 2015 presentation that projected SpaceX's Starlink division would generate almost $12 billion in revenue and $7 billion in operating profit in 2022. It also expected over 20 million users by the end of that year.

Starlink's $1.4 billion revenue for 2022 was a massive jump from 2021's figure of $222 million, but it's still a long way off the 2015 projection. One million users, meanwhile, is nowhere near 20 million. The WSJ writes that the company turned a small profit in the first quarter of 2023 after two annual losses. Starlink says it is no longer selling its $599 Starlink antennas, aka terminals, at a loss. It also sells specialized antennas for land, sea, and air vehicles that range from $2,500 to $150,000.

Subscriber numbers are up since 2022, but not by a huge amount. SpaceX reported that it had about 1.5 million users in May 2023, though executive Jonathan Hofeller told CNBC that it is now "well over" that 1.5 million mark - a figure that includes both consumer and enterprise users.

Starlink's 4,700+ satellites in low-Earth orbit offer high-speed broadband for people without access to cable or fiber. Extra users have caused speeds to dip, and some say there is a glaring issue with its business model: "Starlink is bumping up against a reality articulated by many skeptics of satellite Internet," writes the WSJ. "The majority of the world's population that the business could serve and that can afford high-speed broadband lives in cities. In those regions, Internet service is readily available, usually offers cheaper monthly costs than Starlink and doesn't require specialized equipment."

Many headlines about Starlink these days relate to its use in Ukraine. SpaceX has supplied over 25,000 terminals to the country and maintained them since Russia invaded.

Musk warned In October that with Starlink donations to Ukraine exceeding $100 million, his company could not foot the bill forever, suggesting that the Pentagon should help with costs. But he did a U-turn days later, confirming SpaceX would fund Starlink in Ukraine "indefinitely," though it's now claimed US government agencies did start paying for Starlink's extra use in the country.

In February, SpaceX limited Ukraine's ability to use the Starlink satellite service for offensive military purposes. There was also the recent revelation that Musk turned off Starlink to foil a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian naval fleet in Crimea last year over fears that Vladimir Putin would retaliate with a nuclear strike.

What a massive failure....

Family Guy Pain GIF
 

winjer

Gold Member
My business plan is to be a billionaire by the end of 2024. If I end up a millionaire instead, am I a massive failure? No. Elon Musk does a lot of hyperbolic/exaggerated plans/presentations. Its his shtick.

We now know he exaggerates forecasts. But at the time, most people still trusted him, and probably invested a lot of money into his projects, including Starlink.
The CEO of the company talking projections of revenue and growth, is not just mere clickbait.
 

AJUMP23

Gold Member
I don't think the PPS prediction was 11 million, that is what matters, everything else is just marketing.
 
It's expensive as fuck. I get that it's aimed at people in rural areas, travellers, and people with boats so for them it's probably a good deal. That market is going to run dry at some point so they need to think about selling this to the average person. I know it doesn't do well unless there is a lot of visible sky but could still useful to those living in the suburbs or whatever. I live just outside the city and it seems like it'd work well here but what do I know.

Here it's £79/month and that's after you pay £449 for the hardware. No fucking thanks. That's £1.4k for the first year then almost £1K a year afterwards. I paid about £400/year for my internet. I don't know what kind of speeds Starlink gets though? Mines is roughly 300Mb/s.
 

Punished Miku

Gold Member
He's done a good job of ruining Starlink's reputation with his pro-Putin manoeuvres around it. Not a great way to sell your product to your audience.
Thunderfoot has some pretty damning projections for Starlink profitability long term as well, before any of that. I'm wondering if he's going to make yet another video on this. I can't imagine he will skip the chance.
 

Maiden Voyage

Gold™ Member
If I could estimate accurately the business revenue of any company in 7-8 years, I’d be very wealthy.

There’s plenty of stuff to dunk musk on but this is not one of them.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Nobody can accurately predict business performance 7 years out. Especially for a new product.

Even everyone's local water utility company cant predict 7 years into the future.
 

FunkMiller

Gold Member
A private company should not be forced to have their service used for war when said company resides in a country that "claims" they are not at war with Russia.

Then don't allow your service to be used in the first place - only to turn around and turn the fucking thing off in the middle of an operation designed to save Ukrainian lives, and further their cause against the Russian scum. It's a cunt move of the highest order, and signifies where his loyalties lie.
 
Last edited:

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Then don't allow your service to be used in the first place - only to turn around and turn the fucking thing off in the middle of an operation designed to save Ukrainian lives, and further their cause against the Russian scum. It's a cunt move of the highest order, and signifies where his loyalties lie.
Divide & Conquer™
 

M1chl

Currently Gif and Meme Champion
A private company should not be forced to have their service used for war when said company resides in a country that "claims" they are not at war with Russia.
Also it is interesting, that private company has military intel from adversary, because Ukrainians sure as hell didn't report it
 

EverydayBeast

thinks Halo Infinite is a new graphical benchmark
Elon is so good on his projects, all of it makes sense and he has a lot going on. Tesla cars feel refreshing, you know they’ll be Tesla airplanes.
 
A bit of a clickbait, it was just a stupid prediction. Doesnt mean it flopped or that it is a massive failure. Its still growing and making tons of money.

The revenue and revenue growth performance is measured against the cost of doing business. If the costs are so high and the revenue so low that the ROI is impracticably long, then it will make it harder for Elon to secure future investments.

So it might not be a failure, but if it missed its original revenue projection, and the profitability date is pushed back years, then getting future investment to help reach profitability will be at risk, thus the business in its entirety is at risk of failure.
 

The Cockatrice

Gold Member
The revenue and revenue growth performance is measured against the cost of doing business. If the costs are so high and the revenue so low that the ROI is impracticably long, then it will make it harder for Elon to secure future investments.

So it might not be a failure, but if it missed its original revenue projection, and the profitability date is pushed back years, then getting future investment to help reach profitability will be at risk, thus the business in its entirety is at risk of failure.
You might be right, you might be wrong, but fact remains, he's still rich, we're still poor and his businesses are still doing fine. Hard to take anyone serious when he's still one of the richest men in the world even if hes a massive idiot most of the times. Gaf likes to say things and act as if they know business, but I dont see anyone here owning billion-dollar companies.
 
Last edited:
You might be right, you might be wrong, but fact remains, he's still rich, we're still poor and his businesses are still doing fine. Hard to take anyone serious when he's still one of the richest men in the world even if hes a massive idiot most of the times. Gaf likes to say things and act as if they know business, but I dont see anyone here owning billion-dollar companies.

What a weird appeal to authority logical fallacy.

Elon is a very shrewd businessman yes. He's launched multiple very successful businesses, yes. But he's not bulletproof.

He has many business failures, e.g. Hyperloop, the Boring Company, to name a few. As is true for every billionaire. You don't get to become a billionaire by never having businesses fail. You do so by knowing what works and keep investing in a diversified portfolio of business start-ups; some of which fail and some of which go on to be successful.

You also don't know me, nor most of Gaf. I could be a very successful entrepreneur too for all you know :pie_winking:.
 
Last edited:

Drake

Member
Has anyone actually used this? I've read for people in rural areas its actually a half way decent option.
 

[Sigma]

Member
I kinda want this but I can't currently justify paying that much for internet. So i'll stay on my slow one sadly.
 
Last edited:

L*][*N*K

Banned
A bit of a clickbait, it was just a stupid prediction. Doesnt mean it flopped or that it is a massive failure. Its still growing and making tons of money.
It is not a stupid prediction, they don't go to a psychic and look into a crystal ball you know, these numbers are studied and forecasted.
 
Top Bottom