I expect both consoles will be close to 1080ti performance, and people who game on 1080ti know already what to expect from GPU like that and new consoles. It's very hard to max out PS4 / XBOXO games on 1080ti if you aim at 4K 60fps target. Rise Of The Tomb Raider run with 45fps dips maxed out, so I was using high settings, or max settings at 1800p. I sold my 1080ti just before shadow of the tomb raider has launched on PC, but that game runs even worse compared to ROTTR (according to benchmarks 40fps average). Even 2080ti struggles and cant provide solid 60fps in this game at 4K (game made with current gen consoles in mind), and that's 1200$ GPU!
During PS3 / X360 era games run at 720p already, so going to 1080p on XBOX ONE / PS4 wasnt so big resolution boost as going from 1080p to 4K now (you need 4x more powerful GPU to run the same game at 4K 30fps, and 8x to run 4K at 60fps). People here mention The last of us part 2, and although graphics looks great it's just 1080p 30fps game (probably with 25fps dips there and there) so it's 8x less demanding than Halo Infinite running at 4K 60fps. There's no way xbox scarlett or PS5 will run games at 4K 60fps and provide much higher graphics fidelity than the best looking PS4 / xbox one games, there's simply no GPU resources for that even if new consoles would use 2080ti GPU equivalent. Im sure developers who will target 30fps and 1440p on next gen console will be able to increase graphics fidelity as it was before (PS3 vs PS4), but not at 4K 60fps target.
Keeping that in mind I'm impressed how halo infinite looks, because not only game runs at 4K 60fps but provide some really amazing details. Indirect lighting and shadows looks stunning, even small objects are round and detailed and textures quality is INSANE (at 4K stream texture fine details just pop and that's just low quality YT stream). I'm guessing halo infinite use well over 10GB VRAM for textures alone but finally we can see textures that look razor sharp even at 4K (there are some games on xbox x that also run at 4K but with much worse textures). Game looks beautiful considering 4K 60fps target and IMO people who expect much more from next gen consoles will be really disappointed.
I think it's difficult to compare cards and match performance against consoles when first party studios are pushing them.
And one huge point I don't see mentioned in your post is the cpu upgrade next gen. The development point you make in terms of framerate, and to a much lesser degree resolution, almost excludes the cpu entirely as a factor, and that makes sense because there's really nothing remotely modern that matches a jaguar because its complete and utter trash. So the comparison is force limited in your case to a GPU comparison, which in my opinion, is unfair.
Let me get this out of the way first. I am in no way suggesting we see 4k 60fps across the boord with high settings. Not even close. and especially not with goodies like ray tracking. HELL NO.
What I am saying is the difference between a Jaguar and Zen 2 is an absolute monster gulf in power. And considering some of the best developers in the world will be allowed to take advantage of that in a closed box after years of squeezing water out of a stone with a tablet cpu, I am convinced we will see massive differences on the first party front. I see huge differences especially if they decide to use/improve checkboard dynamic solutions to really bolster performance even more. Even more if they go with performance modes at the 1800p checkboard range, high settings, and 60fps on many high fidelity large open world titles. Even 4k 60fps in
some cases.
Why? It's not just the cpu.
This is the first time I can remember that consoles are launching without an obvious Achilles heel. Not to say they're high end PCs, but past generations consoles have had either 1) very limited memory 2) extremely underpowered cpu or gpu. 3) all of the above.
This is the first time these big studios get the advantage of working with closed boxes that aren't don't have a huge anchor but actually somewhat well rounded low-med tier gaming PCs. There are no obvious, massive downfalls to work around. I honestly think a lowly X1X with paired with a Zen 2 would do wonders with first studios and that's only 6TF, we'll get at least another 3TF along with more/better memory. I actually see more 60fps games next gen than this gen, and that's at high settings and a 4k or checkboard solution.