I doubt that, based alone on Playstation's international appeal and Xbox's vanishing presence outside US/UK.
I don't think this is going to be a particularly efficacious marketing point. XB1S is currently marketed as a 4K machine, as is Pro (perhaps to a lesser extent). Selling the difference between that and proper 4K to the average Joe seems like a challenging task. Not to mention a fair portion of Scorpio games will inevitably render under 4K.
Power alone has never crowned a console king. Price - and particularly holiday bundles, when Scorpio will likely launch - will be a far greater driver of purchases.
I don't think updates for previously released titles are going to move many units. With regard to a first party lineup, we've had a lot of insider information suggest that MS is internally tightening the belt and doubling down on service-based games. We should see a smattering of third party exclusives here and there, but it doesn't seem reasonable to expect anything resembling a first party renaissance. Scorpio's pitch seems to come down to: play what is available on our less powerful SKU on the world's most powerful console with better bells and whistles.
The reason having previously released games performing better right out of the gate is a big deal, is because it makes the whole system far more valuable for general consumers, and is far easier of a message to sell and communicate. For example:
PS4 Pro (On release) - Some game will perform better, maybe, but some won't...it's all rather confusing, and requires research to even find out.
Scorprio - (an assumed marketing message they could push) Every game you own will perform significantly better, and all new games will look amazing, and support up to true 4k
PS4 Pro's marketing, and the tangible benefits it actually offered, were incredibly confusing. If everything you own is better on Scorpio, then it's a very direct, and easy to understand message. It would also no doubt make people feel a lot better or more assured about spending the extra money to get one.
With regards to exclusives, if you think MS is going to just roll over and die, and stop trying to have a great 1st party lineup, then I think you are sorely mistaken. Obviously, all 1st party games MS makes will be pushing Scorpio now, probably first and foremost, and when MS shows a game off at a conference, they can now show off the absolutely most beautiful version, running on Scoprio or PC. From the outside, it will look like MS games are a lot more impressive now. I certainly expect MS to come out swinging at E3 this year.
And that's what it all comes down to, Marketing. PS4 Pro had incredibly weak marketing. It was just kind of...there, but not really pushed. So far, MS seems to be doing a far better job of communicating and pushing Scorpio. You can tell they plan to seriously push the system this E3 as well, simply by the fact that the system will be front and center at E3, judging by their recent E3 date announcement.
If MS properly market and communicate Scorpio, properly support it, and can convince people that it is a true upgrade, then I think they can absolutely sell far better than PS4 Pro, perhaps even sell far better as the Xbox Brand overall.
I agree that PS4 has amazing momentum, I'm not saying Scorpio will upend that, but those sales are barely going to the Pro, while people are still buying the base console in droves. I would not be surprised at all if Scorpio outsells the PS4 Pro in relatively short order. but it will be interesting to see how things pan out. MS certainly has a lot of room to botch the whole operation.
