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Wkd BO 0224-2617 - Peele rules the Box Office and Rotten Tomatoes. China loves RE6.
- Thread starter kswiston
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That Friday estimate for Get Out has it down 26% from last week. That's good by any standard, but a horror film going up against another big R rated opener...hot damn.
Different audiences, but I thought Logan's R rating would pull some away from Get Out. Nope. It's in for the kind of legs Split had, if not better; that one dropped 46% its second Friday.
Different audiences, but I thought Logan's R rating would pull some away from Get Out. Nope. It's in for the kind of legs Split had, if not better; that one dropped 46% its second Friday.
The past year makes me think that "Horror films have terrible legs" no longer applies quite as much now that the horror films aren't presumed to be terrible by default.
Does Get Out have a strong chance of making to 100m?
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
just imagine how much worse Wonder Woman is going to do -assuming it's similar to the previous two snyderverse movies- when Logan is critically praised so highly. I'm feeling optimistic about JL > Logan > WW as a bet, domestic at least.
Have to look up what I actually bet before though.
*takes a long-ass time searching manually*
found... oh, we were comparing Lego Bats instead of JL.
For reference purposes: X-Men Apocalypse worldwide total according to BOM is 543 million, with 155 domestic and 388 foreign. I don't know what formula Kwinston uses to calculate expected total from first day totals (33m domestic), but I figure it's something like first weekend times two or three? Which would place Logan, assuming a drop, below Apocalypse. I think the word of mouth is going to make it hold though. I mean, what else you gonna watch anyway? So it has a shot of getting just up there to stab it in the cheek.
Oh hey, that way I might even get to be right about Logan beating Lego Bats. Neat.
I do want it to do well looking at the reception and the Graham Norton Show episode though. Apparently, Starfleet does not, in fact, tell people whether or not they're circumcised.
I think Kong and Power Rangers are going to get wasted by the competition though. The reception for the first is middling so far, which bodes rather poorly for its chances. PR is gonna get smeared anyway. I know it's going to get a nostalgia opening day, but I can't see it lasting longer than that one weekend.
Also, as a European, I have seen every James Bond movie, of course. What do you think we put on our cable networks? American movies? pffff. (licensing costs are probably lower)
Have to look up what I actually bet before though.
*takes a long-ass time searching manually*
found... oh, we were comparing Lego Bats instead of JL.
For reference purposes: X-Men Apocalypse worldwide total according to BOM is 543 million, with 155 domestic and 388 foreign. I don't know what formula Kwinston uses to calculate expected total from first day totals (33m domestic), but I figure it's something like first weekend times two or three? Which would place Logan, assuming a drop, below Apocalypse. I think the word of mouth is going to make it hold though. I mean, what else you gonna watch anyway? So it has a shot of getting just up there to stab it in the cheek.
Oh hey, that way I might even get to be right about Logan beating Lego Bats. Neat.
I do want it to do well looking at the reception and the Graham Norton Show episode though. Apparently, Starfleet does not, in fact, tell people whether or not they're circumcised.
I think Kong and Power Rangers are going to get wasted by the competition though. The reception for the first is middling so far, which bodes rather poorly for its chances. PR is gonna get smeared anyway. I know it's going to get a nostalgia opening day, but I can't see it lasting longer than that one weekend.
Also, as a European, I have seen every James Bond movie, of course. What do you think we put on our cable networks? American movies? pffff. (licensing costs are probably lower)
just imagine how much worse Wonder Woman is going to do -assuming it's similar to the previous two snyderverse movies- when Logan is critically praised so highly. I'm feeling optimistic about JL > Logan > WW as a bet, domestic at least.
Have to look up what I actually bet before though.
*takes a long-ass time searching manually*
found... oh, we were comparing Lego Bats instead of JL.
For reference purposes: X-Men Apocalypse worldwide total according to BOM is 543 million, with 155 domestic and 388 foreign. I don't know what formula Kwinston uses to calculate expected total from first day totals (33m domestic), but I figure it's something like first weekend times two or three? Which would place Logan, assuming a drop, below Apocalypse. I think the word of mouth is going to make it hold though. I mean, what else you gonna watch anyway? So it has a shot of getting just up there to stab it in the cheek.
Oh hey, that way I might even get to be right about Logan beating Lego Bats. Neat.
I do want it to do well looking at the reception and the Graham Norton Show episode though. Apparently, Starfleet does not, in fact, tell people whether or not they're circumcised.
Also, as a European, I have seen every James Bond movie, of course. What do you think we put on our cable networks? American movies? pffff. (licensing costs are probably lower)
I would say Logan>JL>WW even worldwide. 700m+ for logan and 670M+ for Justice League
Locked.
Edit: this weekend should bring the total to around $75M. Another $25M given the second weekend will happen easily.
HeartlessNobody213
Member
If BVS can do $873M I think JL will do around that or slightly better. It would have to be absolute trash to only make $670M.
So JL would have to be about the same quality as BvS to hit $670M. ;P
Ninja Scooter
Member
You don't need to reboot the XMen universe as it doesn't seem like Fox has been that rigid about requiring the movies to have the (sometimes) baggage of having an interconnected universe. It's something WB/DC could try and do to salvage what works about the DCEU without having to blow the whole thing up. I don't think general audiences care as much about having each movie connect to the other as they might have thought when they set out to start this.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
Pretty sure it would have to make like 50+ million on opening day to reach 700. I recall Vinny of Kwinston saying something like that last year.
And if BvS can reach 870 while not even trying (and Suicide Squad), a better composed JL should be able to reach a billion. Haven't seen a trailer that shows the entire plot yet, so I'm going to say it's probably going to be less awkward than BvS was. Also because no more setups are required and it should be more easygoing with that shit done. Unless they waste half the movie on getting Aquaman to show up or something.
Which is easy: step 1: purposely beach a whale. Step 2: wait for that asshole with the fork to show up. Step 3: rufies
(for the whale)
HeartlessNobody213
Member
While I didn't think BVS was all that good, I wouldn't call it straight up trash. Looking at the release schedule, Justice League won't have hardly any competition besides a Pixar movie releasing the week after.
It comes out two weeks after Thor 3 and there won't be any other major release until Star Wars a month after.
To be fair though, BVS should have ruled the box office for longer than it should have but ended up getting beat out by "The Boss" in its third week of release.
Well BvS came with like one of biggest hype of last decade after DK. (if you dont count SW7 ofc its another type of beast with nostalgia). Most people were utterly disappointed both BvS and following Suicide Squad .
i dont think its unrealistic to expect JL do worse then BvS considering it also releases in a month of Thor 3 (which if they market right Hulk,Dr Strange,Thanos) and spectacular cast in it.
I also believe it will redeem Thor just like Logan . Doubt people will go in that month and next month there will be Star Wars , Disney will ensure marketing hard people to miss Justice League .
Ninja Scooter
Member
The fact that JL was such a disappointment and SS still made bank just a few short months later sort of breaks your theory.
Also a month is a fucking lifetime for these kinds of movies. By the time Thor comes out JL will have likely made most of it's money anyway.
Something spectacular (more than just "this movie is bad") would have to happen for JL to make only $670 million. Even with questionable quality $800-900 million WW is probably a pretty safe bet.
Pretty sure it would have to make like 50+ million on opening day to reach 700. I recall Vinny of Kwinston saying something like that last year.
And if BvS can reach 870 while not even trying (and Suicide Squad), a better composed JL should be able to reach a billion. Haven't seen a trailer that shows the entire plot yet, so I'm going to say it's probably going to be less awkward than BvS was. Also because no more setups are required and it should be more easygoing with that shit done. Unless they waste half the movie on getting Aquaman to show up or something.
Which is easy: step 1: purposely beach a whale. Step 2: wait for that asshole with the fork to show up. Step 3: rufies
(for the whale)
Except BvS tried too fucking hard. Like marketing money of that movie is alone would 3x most of movies. It was literally everywhere. Only Star Wars challenges and beats that kind of marketing money.
Well SS didnt made a much as BvS and it did have terrible legs. Most people thought SS was nice looking movie with fancy trailers , pop music and harley Queen.
Man of Steel wasnt a turd it was okay to good origin movie and didnt sour people taste like BvS (not my opinion i like BvS ultimate btw)
Ninja Scooter
Member
SS was never going to make as much as BvS, but the stench of the DCEU did nothing to hurt it. That's the point. People, just months after BvS became meme fodder on the internet, still showed up in droves to watch it. It was an unquestionable commercial hit. I think you are misreading the way movie going audiences work.
I think we will see side effects of BvS and SS this year. WonderW will underperform heavily and even if it doesn't get rotten internet will joke how it underperformed compare to Marvel and Fox movies.
Maybe JL will have amazing trailers and wont be shit who knows. I would love that future.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Maybe, I just dont' think people care as much as you think. To most people a movie is just the cost of a ticket and a night out. That's the investment. I'm not saying that it's going to be a great movie. And WoM and legs are definitely important, but WW, for a movie like JL, the difference between great WoM and legs is the difference between $800 million and $1.3 billion. The movies still make bank.
HeartlessNobody213
Member
Suicide Squad ended up making $745 million. If i'm not mistaken, it didn't even get releaed in China. So if anything Suicide Squad overperformed. It definitely didn't have terrible legs either.
It's above what most expected. Way above studio OW prediction which is usually conservative.
pel1300
Member
Nice!!! So good to see the risk the studio and crew took pay off.
And it will probably end up being the highest grossing solo Wolverine movie of the 3....and the previous two were pg13...I hope studios learn from this. *cough*Terminator 3/4/5 and Prometheus*cough*
Prometheus was R.
Be careful what you wish for. Fox might now learn that R-rated solo X-Men is a sure hit and gives Channing Tatum 250 million budget for Gambit movie.
Future Foundation
Member
It fell hard in Week Two, but kept on going. I thought that drop would kill it.
I think that I have seen enough of Logan's run so far to lock $500M worldwide, and say that $600M is pretty likely. $600M might even be locked, but I want to see the first international weekend before I stop being conservative. Another big win for Fox considering the ~$100M budget.
Suicide Squad would have made $266M with BvS legs after that first weekend. Its legs were only slightly better through the first 10 days, leading a lot of people to think that it would finish in the $280-290M range. It ended up making $325M thanks to good late holds.
Suicide Squad would have made $266M with BvS legs after that first weekend. Its legs were only slightly better through the first 10 days, leading a lot of people to think that it would finish in the $280-290M range. It ended up making $325M thanks to good late holds.
Fox is nailing these adult focused superhero films...especially considering their budgets (as you mentioned)
Ya.
I updated my post above a bit when I thought about Logan's run a little more. Logan is heading for something in the neighbourhood of $300M between the domestic and Chinese gross. Probably a bit more than that, but $300M is a safe estimate for now. The Wolverine made $240M outside of those two regions, and Logan seems to be doing better in the territories I checked. Even if the international gross was the same, that would be $540M WW.
So a $150M+ bump in gross over The Wolverine on a smaller budget. I wonder how much Hugh Jackman will make on the participation end of things.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Deadline has Logan's Saturday at $31.2M, which means that an OW of $85M is likely happening.
Get Out's Saturday project is $11.75M, putting in like for ~$27M, a drop of only 19% from last week. If it keeps the strong weekdays up and has a couple more 20% weekend drops, $200M could be in the cards.
Get Out's Saturday project is $11.75M, putting in like for ~$27M, a drop of only 19% from last week. If it keeps the strong weekdays up and has a couple more 20% weekend drops, $200M could be in the cards.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
MHWilliams
Member
I wonder if the money is good enough for Marvel to bring the Netflix tone to the big screen for an R-Rated project in the future.
Doubt it.
Doubt it.
StopMakingSense
Member
Catharsis is escapism these days.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
You should read Matt Zoller Seitz's latest piece (most recent as in, written within the last 10 min) on Logan - it speaks to that idea.
Jesus Christ is your username apt right now. Damn.
Imperial Bishop
Banned
Now's a good time to bring back Blade, if Marvel wants to test an R-rated film.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
My biggest hope is Fox greenlights an R rated Magneto film. Finally get the kind of film suggested by the best scenes in First Class.
hodayathink
Member
I think Marvel would be more likely to use a character/property that they're actually actively promoting in the comic realm. Like, say, Moon Knight.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I mean, the Magneto film script was basically going to be him hunting Nazis after escaping Auschwitz, right? That's the sort of thing I can see warranting an R rating.
MHWilliams
Member
Damn good review.
Truth.
I doubt they do.
Let's put it this way, assuming Logan is a Deadpool-level smash hit, what Marvel will see is that two R-rated films with their comic heavy hitters - Wolverine and Deadpool - performed better than Ant-Man and Dr. Strange, two of their smaller characters. Of those, Strange was in the ballpark, showing Marvel that their machine is working fine.
I doubt they'll look at the rating of both films as a vector to the deeper storytelling of Logan, because it's Deadpool and Wolverine. Marvel knows they're moneymakers.
And Disney proper doesn't do R-rated films.
EDIT: A quick Google shows Iger has said as much.
Honestly, before Fox greenlights more R-Rated X-Men projects, I'd like them to actually get the X-Men right. Like First Class, get a solid filmmaker, script, and cast. Make a good X-Men film. It's the X-Men. How d you keep getting it wrong?
Imperial Bishop
Banned
I don't know much about Moon Knight, but if he could work in a well-written R-rated space then it's all good.
Him being an obscure character doesn't really matter.
Yeah. I don't expect it to happen, and it would look very "me too"-ish if they all of a sudden changed the rating of their future films to an R.
However, I think it would be interesting to have the option on the table for a director to go R-rated if they feel it would work for the story they want to tell.
hodayathink
Member
You and I had this same discussion when Deadpool came out, and both of us basically ended up saying the same thing.
Laughing Banana
Weeping Pickle
Split got 130 from a budget of 9???????
Wow,Shyamalan
Wow,Shyamalan
Lord Frieza
Member
I still think Wonder Woman is going to surprise a lot of people. Even with the more crowded market around it I think it's going to be a hit.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
YUP. It's not just "STUDIO! Make a thing like all the other things!"
Like, how often in the history of film has that actually satisfied audiences for longer than 2 1/2 minutes?
Match the artists to the property and only let em loose if they obviously have the passion to tell that story right. The rating won't matter at that point.
Discotheque
Banned
the rating is whatever. R or not, what I wish these other guys learned from Logan was to maybe try making a damn movie with some emotional depth to it. a dinner scene in logan is more engaging than whatever happened in the last 15 mcu movies and superman's death in BvS for instance.
marvel studios certainly won't learn from this. but maybe one day WB will realize that they once had TDK trilogy and Superman Returns (although that was a misfire, but at least it tried) released, and greenlight those kinds of adaptations.
anyways it's pretty satisfying to see Logan be rewarded with success. I'm pretty damn happy with x1-2-dofp-logan as the definitive xmen order now.
edit: and legion is dope as hell too. Fox has been doing great things going against the grain lately.
marvel studios certainly won't learn from this. but maybe one day WB will realize that they once had TDK trilogy and Superman Returns (although that was a misfire, but at least it tried) released, and greenlight those kinds of adaptations.
anyways it's pretty satisfying to see Logan be rewarded with success. I'm pretty damn happy with x1-2-dofp-logan as the definitive xmen order now.
edit: and legion is dope as hell too. Fox has been doing great things going against the grain lately.
hodayathink
Member
And honestly, if there's one thing I want from, Disney/Marvel right now, it's the other thing that Fox is doing, especially with their TV properties, which is be willing to tell stories that don't directly tie in to the mainline continuity. Not everything needs to be a part of the cinematic universe, and we could get some really cool stories if they divorced themselves of the need to do that with every single Marvel property they put out (except Big Hero 6, which barely counts).
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