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[Men_in_Boxes]

The above video is fairly cringe for people older than 20 years old so I'll bullet point the creators main reasons why he thinks BR is starting to fade.

- It's overly repetitive.
- BR is too rigid a genre (game mode).
- No persistence.
- Extraction shooters solve the above issues.

A few of you may know I'm obsessed with Battle Royale. I think it stands as one of the most important, most interesting design developments mainstream gaming has ever seen. That being said, I think he's essentially correct.

I've since dipped my toes in Warzones DMZ mode (~15 hrs) and while it's not great (PvP is awful, treadmill leads to nothing exciting) it's pretty obvious how much bigger and more ambitious this framework will become. Those weaknesses are an easy fix for developers starting from scratch.

TLDR/W: People have been saying "BR is dead" for ~5 years now, but are we finally nearing its expiration date (2026)?

 

[Spukc]

like fashion it will repeat

 

[Quantum253]

Gears made the "Horde Mode" popular. It seemed every game had s similar type. That was around 08'. Player Unkown Battle Grounds made the Battle Royal main stream (what about 16/17'). Figure there's a 8-10 year life span on the trends, so maybe in the next 2-3 years it will fade out. Of course, there has to be that trend setter to take its place.

 

[ACESHIGH]

Battle royale but with car combat. Do zoomers not like cars? Not sure why this is not a thing, it's a match made in heaven

Make them electric and with non lethal guns so that they do not take offense.

 

[BossLackey]

Battle royale but with car combat. Do zoomers not like cars? Not sure why this is not a thing, it's a match made in heaven

I would play the crap out of that. There's something really fun about being in a vehicle in a BR. Why not start with one?

 

[Ghost of Caelid]

I'm not going to predict what will be popular, but it's usually smart to bet on the field so I'll take the field in this bet. BR isn't at it's peak popularity rn so I'll assume another online model will over take it.

 

[TropicanaTwista]

Is BR even that popular anymore? I'm sure I'm out of the loop, but not really a genre that interested me. Just going off my friends list/word of mouth. Rarely see people play them that much anymore, at least compared to like 3 years ago.

 

[MiguelItUp]

like fashion it will repeat

Exactly. Gaming fads and trends have always existed, and always evolve.

We saw it in MMOs, RTSs, FPSs, MOBAs, BRs, and now Extraction Shooters. Hell there were even other small genres that tried to get a little slice as well.

I already feel like the BR praise is slowing down quite a bit. Even the Extraction Shooters. The only ones that are lasting are the big ones, or the most unique ones.

Not sure what the next big thing will be, but I don't think it'll be anything in that list.

 

[Lupin3]

Can't see why not. I don't think the popularity of shooters are going anywhere, and it's so easy for the big ones to keep reeling new players in with the f2p mechanics combined with the fast-paced point and shoot gameplay.

But if not, I have no clue what we'd see instead.

 

[Guilty_AI]

I'd argue it already isn't the most popular genre anymore, or rather their popularity was just kind of a bleep. While its true we had a few popular BR titles, only truly a few got any notoriety. Fortnite, PUBG, Warzone and Apex.

Meanwhile you can find tons of RPG-ish or MMO-ish games with focus on PvE or some form of progression systems that have been popular for a long time or gained some recently. Destiny 2, Genshin Impact, WoW, Diablo, FFXIV, Lost Ark, New World, Path of Exile, Warframe, even some more classic SP games with live-service and online elements like Euro Truck Sim 2, Elden Ring, Terraria and Stardew Valley.

While none of these in particular have the amount of players the BR quartet has, just notice how theres just a lot more of them being played when compared with the BR genre.

 

[Warablo]

I am still hoping Extraction shooters will take off (Hunt Showdown, The Cycle, Tarkov).

I really loved Blackout (first CoD BR), but feel like Warzone is inferior to it.

 

[Slicker than your average]

I'm sick of BR games. The problem with trends it destroys chances of games coming out on other genres.

Look what happened with dawn of war 3, dev chasing mobas

 

[remember_spinal]

Tarkov/extraction will probably start giving it competition, especially if bungie is doing it

 

[Rush2112]

After 2020 I stopped predicting things.

 

[Esca]

I don't think it will be.
OP thanks for the the bullet points

 

[Kilau]

It will die and the new game will be an FPS; hobby-grade coop campaign; genre-blended, multi-mode competitive e-sports; meta-growth, choice + epic heroes.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

what happened to the hero shooters?

 

[Arsic]

There hasn’t been a big new MP game hit of a Fortnite or Apex since, what, Valorant ?

Something will come along soon to shake things up and it may not even be a shooter. This year is stacked for releases but not so much in the way of new MP experiences .

I could see something like a new take on Quake being a big hit, but not a Fortnite hit.

I personally don’t think we have a big hit in the extraction shooter although plenty would scream EFT yet after 7 years that game is on version .13, and to me is a scam game like Star Citizen lol.

A proper AAA EFT , with a completed road map like they had when they started with the game, would clean house in 2023 and beyond .

Hell the best survival game is still Minecraft. The only other close hit was Valheim. The rest are just more niche experiences like a DayZ or Icarus.

I’m surprised too OP says extraction shooters are persistent. I stay away because one death equating to hours on hours of lost work and items isn’t for me. I wish there was a persistent mode in a EFT like game similar to path of exile, and then seasons where wipes can occur.

If anything I think the big new MP game to watch will be the last of us MP game. A lot of momentum in NDs favor to come out with their biggest hit yet.

 

[nikos]

Battle royale but with car combat. Do zoomers not like cars? Not sure why this is not a thing, it's a match made in heaven

Make them electric and with non lethal guns so that they do not take offense.

Check out Crossout. Started it last night and it was pretty fun. It's F2P but I'm not sure to what extent.

 

[Trogdor1123]

What is an extraction shooter?

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

What is an extraction shooter?

Think Battle Royale but when you drop in and find high value loot, you can leave the match early (by getting to extract zone safely) and keep said loot.

That way you're building a character over a 20hr - 50hr period rather than starting with nothing like you do in BR games.

 

[BennyBlanco]

watered down versions of tarkov will be the next big thing

 

[01011001]

What is an extraction shooter?

you have missions and one or multiple maps you can spawn into.
you have an inventory of weapons and other items.
other players will spawn into your map at the same time.
there are also AI controlled enemies to be cautious of.

you try to go in, get lots of loot, complete missions and then go to a predetermined spot to leave the map.
if you die you loose all or most of your stuff, including the stuff you spawned into with.

so you go in, you can try to avoid conflict and just loot and do missions, or you can be aggressive and try to kill other players to get their loot

 

[eastcoastkody]

i really dont think extraction shooters will be the new thing. Theres already more of them then there are Battle Royals. and nobody cares.

I thought The Division with the Dark Zone might've had something there, but i never even played it. And from what i can tell they fumbled it and eventually tinkered too much and killed it.
maybe Escape from tarkov is fun to play? But its certainly not fun to watch.

I tried Vigor once. i think

 

[Fabieter]

Gears made the "Horde Mode" popular. It seemed every game had s similar type. That was around 08'. Player Unkown Battle Grounds made the Battle Royal main stream (what about 16/17'). Figure there's a 8-10 year life span on the trends, so maybe in the next 2-3 years it will fade out. Of course, there has to be that trend setter to take its place.

We had mobas and hero shooter im between tho.

 

[0neAnd0nly]

Part of me wants to say no…

But…

We live in a time where I feel like a lot of game companies are scared to take risk/ be inventive. Gamers have really latched on to the “patch everything” trend, and now when even old IP’s try something new, they usually get push-back until they revert it (see CoD regarding many, many things). What does this have to do with the topic? Gamers pretend to want something new and fresh, but in the end really just want the same BS over and over again… maybe more than ever.

So yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if it is. It also helps that certain major companies (Microsoft) are pushing for more and more GaS bs, which is fits nicely in as being. Sony too, btw. They aren’t off the hook.

Just my .02.

 

[Coconutt]

Are BRs even popular now? I can't name any other big BRs currently beside Fortnite and maybe Apex.

 

[Beer Baelly]

Yes, the arena shooter will come back.

 

[Lucifers Beard]

I want the Arena shooter back but I can see Extraction/Tarkov style games being extremely popular if developers stick to it. DMZ is great fun but to me the missions are mostly stupid and it needs something a bit more to make it a game I’d keep coming back to.

 

[The_Mike]

I hope not, because it has completely ruined the fps genre.

 

[Drizzlehell]

I don't get what's the big deal with battle royale anyway. Especially if you're not accustomed to multiplayer shooters because then all you'll end up doing is to run around a barren map for 20 minutes trying to find a decent gun, and once you finally stumble upon another player then it's a 50-50 shot that you're just gonna get pummeled and then it's game over.

20 minutes of nothing. 5 seconds of action. Thanks, but I'll pass.

Maybe if the arenas were smaller or like someone else mentioned here, vehicle combat was a bigger factor in those games. Basically anything to balance out the above ratio and allow for more interesting games where stuff is happening more frequently.

 

[Black_Stride]

When Apex Legends shadow dropped and immediately went towards the top of the charts.

Me thinks Battle Royale will still be at the top collectively in 3 years easy work.
It might not be Fortnite, Warzone, PUBG or Apex at the top, im sure theres something cooking in one of these studios which changes the Battle Royale just enough to make it feel fresh for BR players.




If GTAVI drops with a GTAVI Online mode then that will be number one.
But Battle Royale games will dominate the top 10.

 

[Black_Stride]

Are BRs even popular now? I can't name any other big BRs currently beside Fortnite and maybe Apex.

Warzone 2 - Currently most played game on console tenth on Steam.
Fortnite - Second most played game on console (not on Steam).
Apex Legends - Fourth most played game on console fourth on Steam.
PUBG - Third most played game on Steam 30th on console(weird its so low).
Naraka - Ninth on Steam, give it time on console.

The big four BattleRoyales are pretty much constantly top 5 most played games together on either console or steam.....sometimes both.
Of course they are super popular.

If you have any IRL friends who are gamers (not NeoGAF level gamers we are totally out of touch) but people who enjoy the medium, ask them what they play.
90% chance they will say one of the big 4 and a sports game and/or whatever popular AAA title is being pushed.
BattleRoyale currently rules the roost on consoles.
On PC; MOBA, Team Fortress and CounterStrike give BattleRoyales a run for their money but on console not having one of the big 4 in the top 5 is nigh impossible.

 

[Dutchy]

Battle royale but with car combat. Do zoomers not like cars? Not sure why this is not a thing, it's a match made in heaven

Make them electric and with non lethal guns so that they do not take offense.

BuRnout? I'd play tf outta that.

 

[AV]

We need an MMOFPS that isn't Fortnite or GTA V.

Who knows, could be whatever Bungie is working on.

 

[bitbydeath]

Think Battle Royale but when you drop in and find high value loot, you can leave the match early (by getting to extract zone safely) and keep said loot.

That way you're building a character over a 20hr - 50hr period rather than starting with nothing like you do in BR games.

Is it as shit as it sounds?

 

[SLB1904]

Is dead jim

 

[Coconutt]

Warzone 2 - Currently most played game on console tenth on Steam.
Fortnite - Second most played game on console (not on Steam).
Apex Legends - Fourth most played game on console fourth on Steam.
PUBG - Third most played game on Steam 30th on console(weird its so low).
Naraka - Ninth on Steam, give it time on console.

The big four BattleRoyales are pretty much constantly top 5 most played games together on either console or steam.....sometimes both.
Of course they are super popular.

If you have any IRL friends who are gamers (not NeoGAF level gamers we are totally out of touch) but people who enjoy the medium, ask them what they play.
90% chance they will say one of the big 4 and a sports game and/or whatever popular AAA title is being pushed.
BattleRoyale currently rules the roost on consoles.
On PC; MOBA, Team Fortress and CounterStrike give BattleRoyales a run for their money but on console not having one of the big 4 in the top 5 is nigh impossible.

Should have clarified new BRs, the only new one on that list is Warzone 2. never heard of Naraka before. The difference between console and Steam for Warzone 2 is pretty interesting though, I guess Call of Duty has just always been way more successful on console.

 

[nkarafo]

Think Battle Royale but when you drop in and find high value loot, you can leave the match early (by getting to extract zone safely) and keep said loot.

That way you're building a character over a 20hr - 50hr period rather than starting with nothing like you do in BR games.

So, just a BR game then with some twist.

 

[VN1X]

It's just a gamemode like any other. It's like saying "will singleplayer still be popular in 2024?" or whatever. We've got The Finals soon, DrDisrespect's joint "DeadDrop" and plenty of others that I'm sure will put their own spin on the formula. And I'm all for it!

Also, we've had Battle Royale since the Unreal Tournament days, back then it was called Last Man Standing. BUCKO!

 

[Black_Stride]

Should have clarified new BRs, the only new one on that list is Warzone 2. never heard of Naraka before. The difference between console and Steam for Warzone 2 is pretty interesting though, I guess Call of Duty has just always been way more successful on console.

Half the PC Call of Duty players are still using Battlenet.
Remember COD came off Steam in favor of Battlenet a while ago, and some player are/were worried that their COD profile wouldnt follow them to Steam.

 

[rodrigolfp]

- It's overly repetitive.
- BR is too rigid a genre (game mode).

So is CoD and CS, even more. Did those two die?

 

[Irobot82]

I would play the crap out of that. There's something really fun about being in a vehicle in a BR. Why not start with one?

Twisted Metal BR.

 

[Wildebeest]

Loot goblins going to loot goblin. Talking about loot goblins getting bored with being goblins and lusting after shiny loot is nonsense. The only thing that will stop them playing one game is other games that are better at making them feel like they are stealing and hoarding more loot.

 

[killatopak]

No king lives forever. Before this it was MOBA and Hero Shooter. I do believe it will take longer than 3 years but it's very volatile.

The genre doesn't even have to miss a step. Someone just needs to come up with a better one or a revolution of an older genre.

My bet is MMOs. Riot just can't miss a step. Their MMO will be huge with the ip behind it.

 

[Johnny Concrete]

I expect the Extraction Shooter to become quickly more popular. The problem with BR is that it's only fun when you are very good at the game. Casual players don't stand a chance and their experience will often consist out of 15/20 minutes of looting cool stuff, but then without even shooting a bullet getting killed by some hardcore player.
Now Fortnite and PUBG 'solved' this by adding dumb as fuck AI in the matches, but that gets old quick.

Extraction shooters are the solution since you can choose to engage in PVP and risk as much as you want, or you can get out of the match and bring the good stuff with you.
There needs to be something on the line, though, without the game being too obtuse.

I would say somewhere between Escape From Tarkov and DMZ you would be in a pretty good spot.

So the first big developer that nails this balance gets the phat loot ($$$$$$$).

 

[Holammer]

I think it'll be replaced by something completely different some guy is cooking up right now. Just how social deduction blew up with Among Us or the Battle Chess near miss.

I wonder if a return to pure death match might be a thing. A friends 10yo son literally grew up with Fortnite BR had COD as a present. His mind was blown by the instant action and quick respawning in regular old DM, now he plays CS:GO. An anecdotal example, but there might be more kids like him waiting to rediscover old modes.
Also, consoles need DOTA and CSGO ports or clones. League of Legends: Wild Rift could be the next big thing if they ever release it on console.

 

[crackajack]

Think Battle Royale but when you drop in and find high value loot, you can leave the match early (by getting to extract zone safely) and keep said loot.

That way you're building a character over a 20hr - 50hr period rather than starting with nothing like you do in BR games.

Had also no idea this is a new "thing"©™.
Never really got BR to begin with, sounded like a slightly modified Last Man Standing which was just a mode in older shooters, and this extraction sounds just like RPG or looter shooter elements now invading MP shooters too. Very "innovative", designing it even more around a collectathon treadmill... urgh...

[x] No, idea and I am obviously oblivious and immune to trends since maybe 10 years.

 

[Griffon]

A new generation of kids will latch onto something that's new that can be called theirs.

What will it be? No fucking clue.

Extraction games are doing good but I'm not sure if it will reach as far as BR. My bet is on something else.

 

[deriks]

Probably yes, but chances are that a new thing will emerge in those days. Won't be as popular, but mostly because of early life