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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

StreetsofBeige

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
HoodWinked said:


was playing with the data and found you can overlay 15 and 30 year, pretty interesting the variation, sometimes it alot more favorable for the 15 yr.
Click to expand...
Short term rates are usually lower for any mortgage. So are the best variable mortgage rates.

But some people like safety and predictability, so they will buy fixed mortgage rates knowing the rate doesn't budge even if the rate at that time is higher.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
StreetsofBeige said:
Short term rates are usually lower for any mortgage. So are the best variable mortgage rates.

But some people like safety and predictability, so they will buy fixed mortgage rates knowing the rate doesn't budge even if the rate at that time is higher.
Click to expand...

Yep the variable rates are what caused the 08 crisis as well when those rates reset.

what banks are also doin more often now on commercial loans are some degree of fixed rates plus libor. It be interesting to see how that works out as expected inflation rises
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
So if this week or two turns out to be a much needed correction of 8%-10%. I think ya'll should consider diversifying your portfolio as you go forward when you buy on weakness

Gonna post some tips and tricks you can use to help your portfolio. One of the things we use is VAR or Value at Risk. We mostly use CVAR, Conditional Value at Risk for more complex analysis but

you can use VAR.


So you can adjust your portfolio based on the expected volatility within the market which looks to trade between 20-30 for the remainder of the year. VAR is really easy to calculate in excel and is a good way to determine how much your portfolio is likely to be at risk in cases of downside based on probability. I highly recommend this for those trading on margin.

You can also use the formulas and new stock features on excel to ensure your portfolio gains consistently.

 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
SpartanN92 said:
Now might be the time to get back in... I feel like BTC will pop back up again and so will RIOT
Click to expand...

The correlation amongst asset classes are high. I got lucky when I bought in on Thursday and the pop on friday. I feel like I'm using all my luck if I were to get back in.

I'll stay out and watch from a distance.

Appl is nearing extreme oversold territory. Even as news come out today it has regained leadership in market share.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
Portfolio is literally flat right now. Up 0.013% LOL

Bought XRT etf on thursday. Looking so far to be a good investment.
 
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ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
aonTAD0.jpg


Energy and commodities seem to have help my portfolio today

Q8yZgjz.jpg
 
CrankyJay™

CrankyJay™

Member
Alright, I took my 101% on ITRM ..... I was up a lot more than that a couple weeks ago but I'm not liking the price movement right now and no near-term catalysts unless they get bought out.
 
StreetsofBeige

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
ManofOne said:
LSPD is up 800% since the lows. Damn.
Click to expand...
Ya. My initial buy in was summer 2019 at around $40 cdn. Bombed to $10.50 during covid. Now $100. At one time I was down 75%. Thank god I held as I sold on the rebound at $75 and rebought back in at $90. Shoulda held the whole time.

From summer 2019 to Nov 2020 it was a dead stock. But in Nov it suddenly shot up $30, flatlined for a month or so and now has edged up over $100 again.

Wacky stock. Doesn't have much correlation to the broader indexes - even Nasdaq as a tech though its listed on Dow. Only correlation was covid melt down (and rebound) with everyone else.
 
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Dynasty8

Dynasty8

Member
So...is the the market correction that everyone's been talking about? My portfolio was at$105k last Monday. It's around $96k as of right now. Do I wait it out and weather the storm? 70% of my investments are tied to ETFs (majority being split between the 5 different ARK ETFs). Not gonna lie, all the red is scaring the shit out of me, but I know it takes time to recover...just not sure how much time since this is the first correction I am going through.
 
longdi

longdi

Banned
Dynasty8 said:
So...is the the market correction that everyone's been talking about? My portfolio was at$105k last Monday. It's around $96k as of right now. Do I wait it out and weather the storm? 70% of my investments are tied to ETFs (majority being split between the 5 different ARK ETFs). Not gonna lie, all the red is scaring the shit out of me, but I know it takes time to recover...just not sure how much time since this is the first correction I am going through.
Click to expand...

according to Chinese horoscope, the real correction is next month.
Today is just another monthly 2% dip of recent trend.
 
Delf

Delf

Banned
I'm in for..

WATTS (could strike a battery deal with Apple)
UAVS (Amazon Delivery Drones)
OBSV (Earnings on the 24th, swing)
INOD (Robotics, order is for $6 but shes holding at 6.70)
BTCY (Order still open, catalyst in June)
SXOOF (Order open. Lithium mining/link to the Pelosi family. Shot from .70 to .90 this morning..trying to get her at .75)
EMAN (Diodes/Hardware)
Picked up MORE ABML (building Lithium recycling center/linked to SXOOF and others)
NMGRF (Graphite mining)
SANP (Bitcoin mining. 1000 shares at a penny, already up like 20 bucks)

Some other long shots..
BRNW, DPLS

Still holding TRCH, CIDM, RIGL..
 
12Goblins

12Goblins

Lil’ Gobbie
Dynasty8 said:
So...is the the market correction that everyone's been talking about? My portfolio was at$105k last Monday. It's around $96k as of right now. Do I wait it out and weather the storm? 70% of my investments are tied to ETFs (majority being split between the 5 different ARK ETFs). Not gonna lie, all the red is scaring the shit out of me, but I know it takes time to recover...just not sure how much time since this is the first correction I am going through.
Click to expand...

Selling is not an option if this happens. That's the only way to lose

I'm about to dump a bunch of money in the market, but Michael burry says the market is about to crash so I'm probably gona wait this out
 
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ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
I’m up 3.0% - 4.0% right now.

MGM, PK, XOM, COP, OKE and some of my ETFs carrying my portoflio right now.

LTHM is up 3.75% and ALLY is up 1.0%.

So I weighing my portfolio pretty good so far
 
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ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
Dynasty8 said:
So...is the the market correction that everyone's been talking about? My portfolio was at$105k last Monday. It's around $96k as of right now. Do I wait it out and weather the storm? 70% of my investments are tied to ETFs (majority being split between the 5 different ARK ETFs). Not gonna lie, all the red is scaring the shit out of me, but I know it takes time to recover...just not sure how much time since this is the first correction I am going through.
Click to expand...

do you have a decent Margin of Saftey on ur stocks
 
Dynasty8

Dynasty8

Member
ManofOne said:
do you have a decent Margin of Saftey on ur stocks
Click to expand...

Probably too early to determine since it's only been about 3 weeks? I am down overall 3% ($3k of a total of $100k invested). My ETFs are mostly up, but not my individual stocks.

I am up about $10k in Crypto, but seeing the large dip in the past couple days has me concerned. Might be a stupid question, but does the stock market have an influence on Crypto prices as well? Wondering how much Crypto will crash this time compared to what we saw in 2018... Sorry, I am new to all this, but learning more and more every day.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
Dynasty8 said:
Probably too early to determine since it's only been about 3 weeks? I am down overall 3% ($3k of a total of $100k invested). My ETFs are mostly up, but not my individual stocks.

I am up about $10k in Crypto, but seeing the large dip in the past couple days has me concerned. Might be a stupid question, but does the stock market have an influence on Crypto prices as well? Wondering how much Crypto will crash this time compared to what we saw in 2018... Sorry, I am new to all this, but learning more and more every day.
Click to expand...

So firstly, BTC does have a positive correlation with the S&P about 0.3 of Bitcoin's movement could be explained by the S&P 500. Prior that correlations was negligible and negative. Because of the amount of liquidity (money) floating additional upside in bonds and stocks are becoming limited so you see a transition towards other assets which have shown their short term correlations to be positive.

So if the market falls drastically BTC can fall as well.


Over the last few weeks. There has been two key risk emerging, , inflation and yield curve risk. More so yield curve

xtRTpNr.jpg


What you're going to see is a shift toward stocks with shorter equity duration. Large Cap tech stocks and ARKK funds are LONGER duration.

So stocks with shorter duration are cyclical, financials, commodities and MOSTLY ENERGY.


Unless they start yield curve control you can expect this trend to continue.
 
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GHG

GHG

Gold Member
Last week I joked about it just being like negative status effects in rpg games.

Now it's not a joke. I've been nerfed.

Need to trim my positions on a lot of things. Going to do it one share at a time on positive swings in the market.
 
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ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
AmuroChan said:
Tech stocks served me very well last year. This year they've been an albatross.
Click to expand...

As I stated earlier. Yield curve risk is becoming an issue.

The 10 year treasury yield is rising so that resets a lot of valuations also equity duration becomes a factor as the underlying rate rises.

See below.

“High quality and low beta stocks have performed strongly for many years and could be in for a huge shock…These styles are long duration and have ridden the wave of falling bond yields (down 90% in the US since 1981). They are likely to be among the most vulnerable when QE ends…Short duration sectors such as cyclicals and financials are well placed to outperform when bond yields rise and consumer staples and healthcare are most at risk…the materials sector is low duration and performs consistently well when bond yields rise, and it doesn’t matter whether it’s real growth or inflation that is driving bond yields higher.”


Diversify away from tech for the time being if they don't implement yield curve control.
 
GHG

GHG

Gold Member
Cathie Wood has her work cut out. ARKK is not set up to have a good year as things stand.

That and AAPL are first on my hit list of things to trim. Going to watch them like a hawk.
 
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