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Just renewed my sub to WSR so that means that I can update you guys with kewl subscriber only stuffs again

Hear is a (long) article I found in this months ish.....I bolded the stuff I found intresting:

Note, a lot of the info in this article is a few months old.....we just learned that BRD will be using both MPEG4 FREext/AVC H.264 High Profile *and* WMV9/VC9/VC1, codecs, for example...

At any rate, here you go...

HD Optical Disc Rivals
Battle Of The Formats.

By Gary Reber

Back-To-Back Events

A number of events that have transpired over the past three-month period indicate that the rival high-definition optical disc camps have stepped up efforts to attract Hollywood studios and other industry segments to their respective sides, as the race to bring the fledgling technologies to market heats up.


Digital Hollywood

At the three-day Digital Hollywood Conference and Showcase held in Los Angeles on March 28 Benjamin Feingold, President of Columbia TriStar Home Entertainment, reinforced Fidler’s earlier remarks saying, “The game people will need bigger bandwidth to create more elaborate games,” and the computer industry will soon need higher capacity data storage along with an integrated single high-definition video record and playback platform. Other speakers at the conference sounded DVD’s death knell. “By 2006 DVD will start to decline,” said Fidler. With the availability of the $29 DVD player the commoditization of the format is here and as a result there is a lower perceived value among consumers. Fidler added that piracy, particularly online, continues to grow, requiring new content protection solutions. Fidler once again punctuated the point about capacity saying that the shift to HDTV in the home will create demand for the superior storage capacity of Blu-ray Discs with uncompressed discrete multichannel digital audio, enhanced interactivity, and more value added content. As the “ultimate data storage device” for home HD content delivery, “the Blu-ray Disc format is DVD’s logical successor.”

At the same session, Feingold said that “piracy is running rabidly and threatens the revenue stream.” He added: “While DVD sell-through is driving the studio economy, DVD will reach maturity in 2005 or 2006, not so much from unit sales, which will increase, but from lower pricing. With less revenues, there’s less money to make movies and to pay talent.” Feingold acknowledged that people are desperately seeking movies in high-definition but that they were limited to pay satellite services (and to the D-VHS® D-Theater™ prerecorded high-definition tape format). “So we need to bring movies to consumers,” he said “with high-definition Blu-ray as the revenue engine for Hollywood and the creative community.”

Feingold equated the launch of the Blu-ray Disc format to the launch of DVD (Digital Versatile Disc), which didn’t get universal support in the beginning. In no time, DVD exploded as the fastest selling consumer electronics format in the history of the industry. While acknowledging that not everybody was yet on-board with Blu-ray he said, “If you’re going to launch a format you need a lot of people to agree, but you don’t need everybody. You need some people with the foresight to build that ‘field of dreams’ and people will come.”

Blade 2 and Hellboy director Guillermo del Toro, guided the audience through a detailed comparative evaluation of the picture quality of Blu-ray versus DVD in a split-screen presentation of clips from David Lean’s masterpiece, Lawrence Of Arabia. Sony’s new Qualia 004 front projector, which uses SXRD Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCoS) imaging panels with 1920 x 1080 pixel resolution, was used to display the clips (see WSR Issue 86, July 2004 for our review of this projector). This demonstration, which is now used in all Blu-ray Disc format presentations (with the trailer from Hellboy shown), is a convincing exercise in showing the vivid picture superiority of high-definition compared to standard DVD picture resolution fidelity and color saturation. “The nuance is incredible. That’s the way the movie is going to live from now on,” offered del Toro.

As part of del Toro’s remarks, he expressed his creative perspective with respect to Blu-ray Disc capacity saying, “We are seeing a very near future in which the possibility of mixing documents from the Internet, gaming, and movies will merge into one.” He also said that he was thrilled that the added capacity would allow “digital archiving a movie without compressing background; without losing the quality of the movie you created.” He quipped that “Blu-ray is perfect! It’s almost as beautiful as having your own Smithsonian in your home.”

Demos For Hollywood Studios

At a series of closed-door demos of movie clips from Universal and Warner Bros. for studio executives held in a screening room at Universal Studios in mid-May, Toshiba and NEC officials confirmed their readiness for a launch in July of 2005 for the DVD Forum-backed HD DVD format. This could give the format a six-month head start over the Blu-ray Disc format, which has been targeted for introduction in late 2005 or early 2006. But, of course, as with all positioning statements to create a sense of being the furthest progressed, there is a catch.

As a bit of background (covered extensively in past WSR issues) the HD DVD camp’s specifications for ROM (prerecorded) and RAM (rewriteable) have been endorsed by the DVD Forum Steering Committee—ROM in November 2003 and RAM in February 2004. While a significant achievement, the manner in which the victory was achieved was contentious. The format was not approved until the voting rules were changed to not count the several companies who abstained (all of which included member companies of the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group on the Steering Committee). The Blu-ray Disc Founders Group, who apparently want to control their technology standards themselves, did not submit their proposed format’s specifications for Steering Committee consideration.

The June 17 Blu-ray Disc Content Summit Meeting

Notwithstanding the dependence on studio support, just because the DVD Forum, whose job is to assure that format compliance, has standardized on the HD DVD format doesn’t mean that the industry must actually produce HD DVD players. This became perfectly clear at the Content Summit Meeting 2004 event that I attended on June 17 at the St. Regis Hotel in Los Angeles. The event was sponsored by the thirteen-member Blu-ray Disc Founders Group. At that event officials representing the Blu-ray Disc format from each founders’ company were present to discuss their commitment to Blu-ray and show demonstrations of authoring systems and the operating systems they would introduce in their players. Each and every company official that I met with said that they do not support the HD DVD format and therefore would not introduce players regardless of DVD Forum standardization. They said that their companies have put enormous amounts of resources into developing and introducing Blu-ray Disc and have no interest whatsoever in supporting the format that they believe has inferior technology.

That may not be good news to the other companies who support the HD DVD format, whoever they are within the rest of the 200 or so companies that compose the DVD Forum. Other than Toshiba and NEC (one a consumer electronics hardware manufacturer and the other a PC computer manufacturer), no other consumer electronics hardware manufacturer has stepped forward to show support for the DVD Forum-sanctioned format. But perhaps this is because the DVD Forum rules require members to sign a Non-Disclosure Agreement to maintain ongoing specification finalization for HD DVD on a confidential basis.

On the other hand, the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group represents 10 major consumer electronics companies (Hitachi, LGE, Matsushita, Mitsubishi, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, and Thomson) two PC companies (Hewlett-Packard and Dell), and two other support companies (Technicolor and TDK Electronics). With such clout behind the Blu-ray Disc format and no support (at least not revealed officially) for the HD DVD format among this group of companies, the question is how can the HD DVD format muster the necessary support to be successful in the market with only two major hardware companies visibly carrying the banner even though it is being positioned as “the industry-accepted standard?” Where are all the other companies who are members of the DVD Forum that are willing to show their support publicly for HD DVD?

While Microsoft’s Windows Media Video HD compression/decompression codec has been approved as a mandatory codec, along with MPEG-2 and MPEG-4 Advanced Video Codec AVC (H.264), in the HD DVD standard, Microsoft has not publicly promoted support for HD DVD, other than to acknowledge that the WMV HD codec will be a mandatory codec feature of all licensed HD DVD players. (See the On Screen conversation with Amir Majidimehr, Corporate Vice President of Microsoft’s Windows Digital Media Division in Issue 87, August 2004.)

And speaking of Blu-ray Disc Founders’ member exclusive support for their side’s format, I was told in private conversations with some member company representatives, that unofficially, some of these companies, including those supposedly backing HD DVD, planned to offer solutions in both formats to satisfy customers needs should a clear format battle winner or common solution not prove to materialize. This is still a possible scenario if both incompatible formats succeed in becoming successful independently. This scenario is a reminder of the current market situation with respect to multichannel digital audio formats Super Audio Compact Disc (SA-CD) and DVD-Audio, which has suffered due to the lack of affordably priced mass-market “universal” DVD players that can also support these surround music platforms. As a result, the lack of a common standard has kept confused consumers away and retailers caught in the middle.

The only hope, as I see it, for the proponents of HD DVD to end up as the standard-bearer winner is that either their claim that the Blu-ray Disc format is “vaporware” will prove to be so or the major studios will ultimately show overwhelming support for the format and reject the Blu-ray Disc as a next-generation replacement for DVD.

Lucky Seven DVD Conference

“Vaporware” is a strong word to describe your opponent’s technical prowess, especially Sony and Philips, inventors of the CD. But that is exactly the term that was used by Warren Lieberfarb in a heated presentation at the Third Annual Home Entertainment Summit and “Lucky Seven DVD Conference.” The event, sponsored by Video Store magazine, was held at the Wyndham Bel Age Hotel in Los Angeles on June 8, just a few days preceding the Blu-ray Disc Content Summit Meeting 2004. Lieberfarb accused Sony and Philips, the original joint venture companies that created the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group, and the other backers of the Blu-ray Disc format of trying to bluff the studios into supporting Blu-ray and create a sense of inevitability around Blu-ray before the format is really ready for prime time. Lieberfarb stressed the “urgency for a decision to be made post-haste.”

Lieberfarb said that “there will be more available via television and more conveniently than ever before. The studios need a high-definition package media solution to compete with this new world of high-definition that is on its way.”


Lieberfarb has said in one-on-one conversations that Sony and Philips are doing everything they can to undermine the mission of the open standard-supported DVD Forum, in order to promote their own proprietary closed standards. “They have ignored the DVD Forum, which is the same industry group which led the technology to today’s DVD,” he said. They have been able to attract other companies on the basis of extending an intellectual property interest in the Blu-ray Disc format and the promise of sharing in the royalties to be derived. “This is a very intense conflict over intellectual property,” said Lieberfarb.

Lieberfarb outlined what the Hollywood Advisory Council, a group of studio representatives, issued as their wish list of features for a next-generation high-definition optical disc:
- Maximum compatibility with the current DVD format
- Advanced copy protection which is both removable and revocable
- Superior picture and discrete multichannel high-resolution sound quality
- Efficient disc manufacturing
- Higher capacity
- Lower cost through enabling the current DVD manufacturing vendors to efficiently manage production between DVD and HD during the transition
- Efficient manufacturing yields and cycle times
- Internet connectivity to provide updated information from the Web
- Multimedia interactivity that adds value and motivation to people wanting to replace their libraries
- Reliable performance
- Playback verification and compatibility among CE and PC device manufacturers

Lieberfarb claimed the Blu-ray Disc format would entail high-costs and less flexibility for the studios compared to the HD DVD format, which is based on the current DVD standard. “I challenge you (addressing Sony representatives in particular) to prove to all of us here that Blu-ray is a real format,” said Lieberfarb.

Lieberfarb pointed to a three-and-half-second cycle time with 98 percent-plus yields for 30 GB HD DVD dual-layer disc replication and said that a single, high-definition DVD and standard-definition DVD manufacturing line has been shown to be switchable between formats within five minutes.

But before leaving the podium he issued a challenge to the Blu-ray Disc leaders to disclose the answers to the issues pertaining to the mastering process, which Lieberfarb contended used mastering technology that is three years old and was never perfected then and its successor has not been developed as yet, successfully. “If you can’t master the product, you can’t replicate the product,” he said.

The Lieberfarb reference was to a Pioneer-developed electronic beam recorder that according to Toshiba engineers has low-recording speed compared to the laser beam recorder that is used with DVD and CD manufacturing. “In our tests, it takes 20 hours to master a movie using the electronic beam recorder. Therefore, it is impractical for mass production for mastering of movies,” he said. He acknowledged that a claimed improved mastering system version was under development called PTM—Phase Transition Mastering. But then he quipped that the outcome of PTM hadn’t been seen from the Blu-ray Disc proponents, only an announcement.

Lieberfarb also put forth that the thickness of the Blu-ray triple-lens structure negated the ability for the Blu-ray drive to be integrated into notebook computers because of its thickness, which is a function of the lens structure. “Notebook facilitation,” he said, “was an essential feature which will give the product portability and mobility to consumers. Nine to 10 mm, that’s what you need for a drive in a PC. The Blu-ray optical pickup dimensions, according to our sources, are 32 mm. It’s three times the thickness of where the standard is for drives in notebooks today.”

Finally, Lieberfarb concluded with, “And now I challenge Blu-ray to deliver the reality of the 50 GB disc. I maintain that it is not manufacturable, and therefore Blu-ray (ROM), if it exists at all, is a 25 GB product. Therefore it has less data capacity than the HD DVD product, which has a 30 GB capacity.” He further stated that “if the 50 GB product can’t be made, the notion that more is better and that the creative community will use whatever we give them, and the consumer will pay for that value, is facetious. Suddenly if you don’t have 50 GBs, you can’t give it to anyone to use and I won’t comment on the cost benefit of all the additional content if in fact there is no media in reality to put it on. I also warn you that 30 GBs will satisfy the appetite of the most creative creatives as well as the movie.”

Lieberfarb wasn’t through when he said it was “key to note that HD DVD specifications have been issued and therefore manufacturing can commence.” He said that the last remaining specifications for interactivity and Web connectivity will be resolved in the next month or two. “In other words,” he said, “the HD DVD format standardization will be completed this year. If the industry wants product in the market for 2005 to take advantage of the new features of higher picture quality, better audio, security, interactivity, and Web connectivity, decisions have to be made so that manufacturers can begin sourcing components, building lines, etc. So Hollywood has a decision to make and the decision is now.”

With an air of confidence, Blu-ray Disc format spokespersons Mike Fidler; Richard Doherty, General Manager, Panasonic Hollywood Laboratories; and Maureen Weber, General Manager, Optical Storage Solutions, Hewlett-Packard replied that the Blu-ray Disc format would be ready for prime time by the end of 2005 and that costs would quickly fall in line with DVD because replicators could use about 40 to 50 percent of the assets of current DVD production to make Blu-ray Discs.

But back at the IRMA Forum, Dominick DallaVerde, Cinram’s Director of Engineering and again at the Lucky Seven DVD Conference reported that HD DVD discs can be manufactured using the same equipment as current DVDs, with minor adjustments, resulting in a parity in running costs to DVD at launch. “Even before the issue is resolved of whether a format will succeed, we have to define what the format needs in manufacturing processes and what modifications to existing or new equipment we need to manufacture it, said DallaVerde.

Lieberfarb during the IRMA Forum took the opportunity to comment on DallaVerde’s report saying that “the most important factor” in going forward on a next-generation video disc is “the cost of manufacturing.”

Addressing the cost issue Doherty said, “We can talk about dimes and pennies, and I think in the future we will, but in terms of 15 million new discs per month, you are going to be not more than 10 percent of DVD costs. Given the incredible capacity advantage of Blu-ray, it’s difficult to say that we should fight over 5 cents, 10 cents, or 25 cents. The margins on these devices are quite significant and warrant a very moderate increase in cost.”

While Lieberfarb at the Lucky Seven Conference questioned the capability of the Blu-ray Disc technology to deliver on its promise of more capacity with single-sided dual-layer ROM discs and challenged Sony to prove that it could actually manufacture Blu-ray Discs in the volume necessary to support a viable studio business, this pronouncement was strongly denounced in a rebuttal exchange by Blu-ray Disc spokespersons. Doherty said that Panasonic would introduce, in Japan on July 14, a dual-layer 50 GB recordable Blu-ray Disc model with DVD RAM, DVD-R, CD-RW, CD-R, as well as DVD and CD playback capability. Furthermore, he said that prototype dual-layer replication lines were already in advanced test stages producing millions of prerecorded replicated discs, achieving cycle times of five seconds with greater than 80 percent yield. (DVD cycle times are less than 4 seconds with 90 percent or more yield). He noted that the target at launch is a cycle time of 4 seconds with a yield over 90 percent.

Doherty stressed that the decision to use the variable rate MPEG-2 codec scheme, at processing speeds of up to 36 megabits per second, would enable content creators to generate picture quality that will be unequaled, and that MPEG-2 was the standard for high-definition broadcast. Yet he acknowledged that “we are very much in the same way as HD DVD looking at advanced codecs and advanced compression technology for audio as well as for additional value added materials and new forms of enhanced interactivity.”

Mike Fidler, without specifically addressing the challenges of “proof” issued by Lieberfarb, stressed that the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group was composed of no less than 13 companies. “These companies are not just world-class leaders, but they’re engaged in every part of the value chain, every part of development of technology. I don’t think there is any issue with any of the technology developments that will occur with this format as we move forward bringing this technology effectively to the marketplace. If you look at the size and scope of the companies that are involved, both in the CE space as well as the PC space, these are companies that dominate their fields and (are in a position to) provide resources to take new technologies to market to establish a new format. What the BD group decided to do was, quite frankly, take a revolutionary approach to the business and build for the future.”

Maureen Weber talked specifically about why Hewlett-Packard didn’t choose HD DVD as a solution. “I think the number one reason is that we saw this as an interim solution that would last approximately three years. We believe that (HD DVD) is built on archaic technology and that we need to move forward for additional revolutionary features that will be enabled in Blu-ray.” Weber concluded saying, “Each of the 13 companies have developed actual products that can fully round out this convergence message, and personally HP is excited to be helping to develop the next-generation format because we can truly make a convergence format.”

Columbia TriStar’s Feingold emphasized that HD would allow (the studios) to provide content for the 25 million displays projected to be sold in 2005 and 2006 and keep their package media revenue. He called the DVD Forum’s proposal to extend the current DVD standard into high-definition an “interim” step when what’s needed is a “leap.”

Content Summit Meeting 2004 redux

In order to keep a chronological order to the series of back-to-back events I am reporting on, I now take you back to the Content Summit Meeting 2004.

Richard Doherty remarked that the Blu-ray Disc specs will be completed by the end of the year.

Again the key and advantageous feature stressed was Blu-ray’s enormous capacity. “We’re seeing more and more supplemental extras and multiple discs with high-definition material as the next feature set for such material,” Doherty said. “Limited editions, collector’s editions, the amount of supplemental material, and just the sheer amount of discs that are produced as part of a title continue to increase time over time.”

Doherty said the consortium was focused on making sure Blu-ray had the highest possible video playback quality and stated that “you need capacity to make tradeoffs among compression ratios so a content author can choose between what level of compression they want to use versus how much capacity they want to use up.”

Doherty said that Blu-ray is a long-term format, and the technology has a lot of longevity and not limited to two-layers. He also noted that “based on studio feedback we heard specific requests to integrate an advance video codec into the Blu-ray format in addition to MPEG-2.” He cited MPEG-4 AVC with FRExt as a new advanced video codec profile proposed for MPEG-4. “We expect to make a final decision on exactly what codecs will be included in July based on visual quality evaluations and business considerations such as licensing fees and making sure the standards are fairly open and that we have a say in the standard specifications.”

Doherty reviewed the results of a recent visual quality test of MPEG-4 AVC with FRExt. “At 8 and 12 megabits per second it actually has been judged to be superior to D-VHS and at 16 and 20 megabits per second it is indistinguishable from the D-5 original source tape. While we are seeing really high quality results with this codec a content creator still has tradeoffs to make in terms of quality between 8 and 16 megabits per second.” Doherty said that using MPEG-4 would allow a single-layer Blu-ray disc to hold a three-hour HD feature along with three audio tracks and standard-definition extras of about six hours. “At 12 megabits per second for video coding and 3 megabits per second for audio coding the video and audio quality would be excellent.”

Erin Sullivan, Director of Planning, Panasonic, demonstrated the features of Blu-ray with high-definition, full color menus and improved navigation using animated buttons and click sounds. Sullivan also showed a connected player’s capability to download additional content (both free and monetized supplementary product sales) and unlock content on the disc via a studio Website. She also showed a Java interface, which will support interactive games and the control of movie playback. Sullivan concluded with, “HD movie content, interactivity, and a direct connection to the studio for new content will enrich the movie experience for the consumer.”

Brian Zucker, Technology Evangelist at Dell talked about Dell’s involvement as a PC developer and provider, and Dell’s commitment to help solve some of the problems that have been inherent in PCs just dealing with content protection.

Ed Gehrich, Director of Engineering, Sony Digital Audio Disc Company and Shinya Abe, Senior Engineer, Panasonic, presented a Blu-ray Disc ROM manufacturing update and cost analysis.

Bruce Youmans, Vice President Marketing, TDK USA, gave an impressive bare disc hard-coat layer demonstration comparing the robustness of a standard DVD disc to a Blu-ray Disc showing that the BD disc actually performed better under severe abuse conditions.

Maureen Weber laid out the “Best of Class” five Cs of Blu-ray Disc: Capacity, Cost, Content Protection, Creative Features, and Consumer Reach. She stressed that the rapid growth of HDTV in the U.S. will be the foundation for a big opportunity for HD packaged media. And she outlined by category the many Blu-ray Disc products to be launched and the wide industry support for Blu-ray Disc with member companies having strong LSI capabilities. The introduction of CE devices will be supported by Hitachi, LGE, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, and Thomson. PC products will be supported by HP, Dell, Sony, and Panasonic. And media manufacturers supporting the format are TDK, Technicolor, Panasonic, and Sony. Once more the theme of industry strength was addressed.

Weber said that support for BD had most of the industry in CE devices, 50 percent of the industry that produces PCs, and major media manufacturers supporting the format.

Andy Parsons, Senior Vice President, Advanced Product Development, Pioneer, fielded questions. I offered up two questions. The first was “Will regional coding be implemented on Blu-ray Discs as a tool to control when and where discs can be viewed globally?” Parsons said that would be dependent on whether the studios wanted regional coding. “There are a number of studios expressing interest in that and it’s under discussion right now but there is no final conclusion whether or not that will be part of the format. It’s a bit early to say. It’s been made clear to us that some studios like the idea. We’re relatively neutral on it. If there is a consensus that can be reached then it would be possible there would be regional coding, but it hasn’t been defined yet.” Should the studios want regional coding the feature would have to be a mandatory requirement and be built into the architecture of all players.

My second question pertained to the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group emphasis on single-disc capacity. “But is the notion of ‘capacity is king’ dependent on a second layer? I pointed out that DVD offers single DVD-18 disc capacity using two sides each with a dual layer, but that was rejected by consumers who felt “shafted” for having to pay a premium for content once labeled “bonus,” and delivered on two discs, not one. To boot, the discs were void of art, which made it difficult to determine what was on the disc’s sides while having to strain one’s eyes in order to read the tiny band of text and color around the stacking ring. So with higher capacity such a cornerstone for Blu-ray superiority, in the end the consumer may reject the “packed” single disc in favor of two or more discs as better perceived value.

Parsons said that “we have learned that capacity is king and that is what ultimately drives a format and therefore the dual-layer disc will be very, very important for the future growth of titles.” Parsons addressed the perceived value of multiple discs saying “that is a marketing issue that the individual studios will have to address in terms of whether it makes sense for them to go with a multiple disc set or try to make the lowest possible manufacturing cost for them and really focus on the value of the high-definition content.”

Private Conversations

In a private conversation with Maureen Weber, I asked about the assertion that Warren Lieberfarb made that the thickness of the Blu-ray triple-lens structure negated the ability for the Blu-ray Disc drive to be integrated into notebook computers. She said that statement was absurd. “Why would HP and Dell join forces with Panasonic, the number one slim drive supplier, and why would HP and Dell accept something that wouldn’t fit in our notebooks? We wouldn’t.” Weber said the height issue was two years old and has been solved.

Richard Doherty acknowledged that outside of Columbia TriStar, no other studio has committed to either Blu-ray Disc or to HD DVD saying “that makes perfect business sense. They’re motivated to delay as long as possible. There’s no reason they should make an early decision.”

Weber commented that “It’s a negotiation strategy.”

“It’s good for them,” said Doherty “to get more concessions out of the different sides.”

I asked, “what concessions?” Doherty replied, “Certainly format specifications. Certainly cost information. Certainly copy protection.”

I then asked, “When do you think the magic will happen that everything will turn to Blu-ray and there will be actually one format?” Weber replied, “Actually, we’re hopeful by the end of ’04 at the latest, so that people can get on with building product, building media, and delivering content.”

Regarding backward compatibility with DVD, Doherty said that every Blu-ray Disc player would have a red-laser player in it. “It would be product suicide not to play back DVD and all the existing disc formats at the same physical specification (for each format). And you’re going to get really good DVD quality, too, through the digital interfaces and built-in scalers that will make DVDs look even more superior on Blu-ray Disc players.”

Finally, I asked Doherty, “Will component video be part of the Blu-ray specifications” He replied, “That, as you probably know, is controversial. So that hasn’t been fully negotiated yet as to how that is going to be implemented. That’s difficult because Japan has a huge installed base of component video input displays.” He further stated, “That’s a very sensitive issue. Studios would very much like that to never occur if possible. Nevertheless, there will certainly be the digital interconnects (DVI, HDMI), no matter what, and that really is going to give you the highest quality picture you can possibly get.”

Copy Protection

In the final analysis, there is still the unresolved issue of copy protection, which overrides all other differences between the two competing formats. Hollywood does not want to see a repeat of the failure of the copy protection mechanisms used for DVD, which was, in large measure, due to the U.S. National Security Agency’s restrictions on using more advanced encryption technologies. It prohibited the bit length of the key called CSS (Content Scrambling System) to be anything greater than 40 bits, as part of export controls and surveillance requirements.

There is a group called ACMS—Advanced Copying Management System—which has a consortium of content owners, CE and IT members, including members of both the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group and HD DVD, along with companies such as IBM, Intel, and Microsoft. They are developing a removable and revocable advanced encryption system using the AES standard 128-bit key as compared to the 40-bit key that is in standard-definition DVD. As noted, back when DVD was launched, the U.S. government through National Security Agency order prohibited the key length employed for encryption systems to be any longer that 40 bits, so that they would not have difficulty having to break into networks that they wanted to spy on.

Warren Lieberfarb said that all the copy protection controls described by the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group will be equaled or exceeded by HD DVD’s advanced copy management system, “so I take copy protection off the table as a significant source of differentiation.”

But Richard Doherty said at the Content Summit Meeting 2004 that there was also a technology unique to the Blu-ray Disc format that is specifically part of the physical media that prevents it from doing bit-by-bit duplication. And he said that HP and Dell are dedicated to making sure that playback on a PC is done securely and that includes such things as bus encryption in the PC environment. “Only people who are properly licensed can actually make discs,” he said.

While both camps say they have developed sophisticated proprietary copy protection schemes for their respective formats, they have yet to make specifications available and submit their schemes for testing by the technical staffs of the studios. Both camps are investigating the possible adoption of ACMS as well. The outcome of these tests will be the primary determining factor that will overshadow all other format capabilities. Until such full disclosure on copy protection, the studios, except for Sony-owned Sony Pictures Entertainment’s Columbia TriStar, are expected to remain non-committed and choose not to release content in either format until testing shows that their requirements are met.

Blu-ray Disc Association

In May, Blu-ray Disc proponents announced plans to create the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA). The association, which will act as an extension of the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group, will be open to infrastructure companies such as replicators, authoring houses, and other support service providers interested in capitalizing on the format’s launch. There will be four levels of membership with memberships accepted in the summer time frame. The idea is that the Blu-ray Disc Association will bring together all the major patent holders and if things go according to plans, BDA will become the organization for high-definition and the DVD Forum will remain the organization for standard-definition.

During the Content Summit Meeting 2004, Dr. Frans Bos, Strategic Alliance Manager, Philips Optical Storage, discussed the overall structure of the new Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA). The organization will be headed by a board of directors, which will set overall strategy and make key decisions, with a Joint Technical Committee (JTC) that creates the standards, a Compliance Committee that upholds the standards, and a Promotion Committee that promotes the standards. Anybody who is willing to promote Blu-ray Disc can participate, regardless of one’s status (e.g., licensor, licensee or whatever). Bos said there will be BDA contributor seminars in the U.S. on July 28 and in Japan on August 3 with October slated for the official launch.

Blu-ray Disc Founders Group Support For Microsoft Codec

Microsoft’s proposal to include its Windows Media 9 Series applications in the specs for the Blu-ray Disc format was rejected last year by the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group, saying that the Blu-ray Disc format would extend support exclusively for the MPEG-2 compression/decompression codec.

Some analysis believe that this decision to exclude Microsoft was based on a fear that the PC industry would aggressively dominant home entertainment and that high-speed Internet connections will work their way into the home in set-top boxes, optical disc players, and digital video recorders with hard disk drives and ultimately make prerecorded discs less relevant as younger generation consumers download more music and movies.

But due to pressures from certain studios, the group is now reconsidering their decision to exclude Microsoft’s codec and as well, MPEG-4 Advanced Video Codec AVC (H.264), both designed to work effectively through Internet connections. Still another new image compression scheme emerging that reportedly exceeds the performance of MPEG-2 is JPEG2000, developed by Dolby Laboratories. But there is no word on whether this codec will be considered by either camp.

Several of the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group members hold essential patent stakes in the MPEG technologies. Sony holds a majority of the MPEG-4 Visual patents, followed by Matsushita and Toshiba, and is also the major MPEG-2 patent licensor.

Support for Windows Media Video HD and as well, H.264 codecs is an exciting proposition because it would combine Blu-ray storage density with efficient compression schemes to enable HD movie playback from tinier discs that could fit into hand-held devices.

Whatever the decision, either or both codecs will by a mandatory requirement in the final Blu-ray Disc specification. This means that, just as with the mandatory requirement for multichannel uncompressed or lossless linear PCM, Dolby® Digital, and DTS® Digital Surround™, content owners can choose whether or not to use a particular codec because all of the players will support each codec.

Conclusions

It is still too early to call a winner in the battle of self-interests and royalties. One thing is certain and that is the importance of cross-industry support to come up with a de facto standard, which includes the CE (consumer electronics) industry, the IT (information technology) industry, and Hollywood. There is no denying that without the unified support of major Hollywood studios there will never be a common solution.

As noted, this contest is really about money—potentially huge amounts of it from future licensing. That is why the Blu-ray Disc Founders Group will not bow out simply because the DVD Forum has sanctioned HD DVD.

Oh, for the people wondering what the diff between AVC H.264 Main profile (HD DVD) and AVC H.264 FREext High Profile (BRD):

AVC H.264 FREext High Profile(BRD)= AVC H.264 Main profile (HD DVD)

+

8x8 transform

+

quantization matrix

+

4:2:0/4:2:2/4:4:4 color sampling formats

+

10bit/12bit sampling


VC-9 have a quantization matrix and 8x8 transform as well, FYI

 

[DCharlie]

is HVD a valid competitor? It spanks HD-DVD and Blu-ray (if there claims/demo are correcT) by the look of it.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Its probably about as valid as FHD disks were...

Don't hold your breath....

 

[doncale]

and what happened to FMD ?

 

[kaching]

Lieberfarb is an angry man.

 

[capslock]

What a moronic argument, all these people talk as if there already weren't a billion tv sets out there that can't even get the best picture possible out of DVDs, much less Blu Ray discs.

 

[PS2 KID]

and what happened to FMD ?

That looks like the transparent plastic disc at the top of my spindle.

FMD aka Vaporware.

 

[DCharlie]

um... HVD has been demo'ed already. I don't think it's vapourware.

And a 1 Terabyte per DVD sized disk, that would certain fulfill everyones storage needs

 

[KickyFast]

HVD may be the successor to Blu-ray/HD-DVD. Here's what Optware says about Sony:

Drives for home users will cost about $2,700, about the same as commercially available Blu-ray Disc players cost now. While Kageyama didn't have a cost estimate of future home-use HVDs, he said that a number of Japanese, European and U.S. companies led by Sony Corp. have expressed interest in the technology. Last month, Sony ordered collinear technology equipment from Optware to research and develop holographic storage technology and disc manufacturing systems using blue lasers, according to an Optware statement.

"Sony and some major Japanese electronics companies are studying holographic storage to replace HD-DVDs and Blu-ray Discs. Sony wants to develop next-next-generation storage technologies, and we can say that our collinear solution is getting very popular," Kageyama said.

http://www.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/storage/story/0,10801,95446,00.html?SKC=storage-95446

 

[DCharlie]

Given how close HVD seems (in terms of dev time left and expected cost), this :

"Sony and some major Japanese electronics companies are studying holographic storage to replace HD-DVDs and Blu-ray Discs. Sony wants to develop next-next-generation storage technologies, and we can say that our collinear solution is getting very popular," Kageyama said."

the above smells like as soon as we get used to Bluray, they'll just spring the next wave on us the next year or so on.

 

[Crazymoogle]

Wow, that article was amazing. The DVD forum guys are bitching without a leg to stand on. Even their vaporware argument has two major flaws in that Blu Ray products already exist and that Sony could always push BRD through the PS3 to figure out yield issues.

Here's the key point:

Maureen Weber talked specifically about why Hewlett-Packard didn’t choose HD DVD as a solution. “I think the number one reason is that we saw this as an interim solution that would last approximately three years. We believe that (HD DVD) is built on archaic technology and that we need to move forward for additional revolutionary features that will be enabled in Blu-ray.”

This is the financial and technological statement I've been waiting for from these guys. DVD is making so much money right now and basically will continue to do so until they decide to railroad Blu-Ray into the marketplace. As interesting as stuff like FMD and HVD are for the far future, there is strong industry interest in making a long-term format, and Blu-Ray has the capacity, codecs, and expandability (read one of the other threads for Quad-layer info) to be a 15-20 year standard. Hell, the industry group also has the power to basically wipe out DVD-A and SACD if need be and replace it with a BRD format.

Hey Klee, could you post the exact name of the publication and the issue date? I'd like to reference it for something I'm writing.

 

[Chittagong]

My take on this is that both camps are wrong. The transition to a higher definition is only an incremental improvement over DVD, unlike DVD and CD which were revolutionary improvements over previous analog formats - hence their success.

I see this go the same route as SACD - just doesn't make a difference to a mass market of which most have and will continue to have low end TVs and crappy speakers.

By the time the mass market has changed over to HDTVs in any meaningful percentages of overall market both of these formats will be dead as rocks and people have fat pipes of data coming to their homes.

 

[Crazymoogle]

Given how close HVD seems (in terms of dev time left and expected cost), this :

"Sony and some major Japanese electronics companies are studying holographic storage to replace HD-DVDs and Blu-ray Discs. Sony wants to develop next-next-generation storage technologies, and we can say that our collinear solution is getting very popular," Kageyama said."

the above smells like as soon as we get used to Bluray, they'll just spring the next wave on us the next year or so on.

Not that close, based on everything I've read. The core technology is there, but bringing it down into a cost-effective format with proper manufacturing methods could be many years away. Introducing a format to the market isn't that hard; introducing a format that you actually want to be successful is.

 

[cybamerc]

Crazymoogle:

> Even their vaporware argument has two major flaws in that Blu Ray products already
> exist and that Sony could always push BRD through the PS3 to figure out yield issues.

Not really. First of all, the BRD recorders out in Japan are essentially alpha products. They haven't been designed to live up to the final specs. They will be obsolete once the spec is finalized. Secondly, Lieberfarb was talking about BD-ROM which simply doesn't exist at this point.

 

[deadhorse32]

My take on this is that both camps are wrong. The transition to a higher definition is only an incremental improvement over DVD, unlike DVD and CD which were revolutionary improvements over previous analog formats - hence their success.

I see this go the same route as SACD - just doesn't make a difference to a mass market of which most have and will continue to have low end TVs and crappy speakers.

By the time the mass market has changed over to HDTVs in any meaningful percentages of overall market both of these formats will be dead as rocks and people have fat pipes of data coming to their homes.

Realistic people will go to heaven

 

[cybamerc]

Chittagong.

> The transition to a higher definition is only an incremental improvement over DVD,
> unlike DVD and CD which were revolutionary improvements over previous analog
> formats - hence their success.

The improvement of going to HD is bigger than the improvement you got going from LaserDisc to DVD.

> I see this go the same route as SACD - just doesn't make a difference to a mass
> market of which most have and will continue to have low end TVs and crappy speakers.

Audible differences are more difficult to quantify than visible differences. HD makes a big difference. With the HD push coming not just from hardware providers but also broadcasters and content providers there will be a completely different level of awareness regarding HD. Besides, old sets break down eventually and it won't be long since all flat panels are HD.

That said, you're right that ppl won't rush out to buy a HD player in 2006 but eventually ppl will get one just like they did with DVD.

 

[PS2 KID]

um... HVD has been demo'ed already. I don't think it's vapourware.

And a 1 Terabyte per DVD sized disk, that would certain fulfill everyones storage needs

I was referring to FMD (Fluorescent Multi-layered Disc). I don't think FMD and HVD (Holographic Versatile Disc) are the same. FMD I believe is Vaporware.

Edit: From Optware's site

Recording holographic page data** on a rotating transparent disc has been reported before. Such discs, however, are foreign to the conventional optical discs. Lacking the servo information, they do not seem to have a commercial viability. On the contrary Optware has proposed Collinear Holographic recording on a hologram disc the structure of which follows conventional optical disc, i.e. preformatted disc with a reflective layer (disc with servo information).

 

[mrklaw]

My take on this is that both camps are wrong. The transition to a higher definition is only an incremental improvement over DVD, unlike DVD and CD which were revolutionary improvements over previous analog formats - hence their success.

I see this go the same route as SACD - just doesn't make a difference to a mass market of which most have and will continue to have low end TVs and crappy speakers

By the time the mass market has changed over to HDTVs in any meaningful percentages of overall market both of these formats will be dead as rocks and people have fat pipes of data coming to their homes

Careful, you'll give Klee a heart attack!

I agree with you absolutely though. This format will be little more than LD for the digital generation - aimed at the niche market of videophiles willing to pay more for more quality.

Even with higher penetration of HD displays, most people will be happy to play their DVDs on it. They have a surprising amount of image quality. 480p isn't a million miles away from 1080i. When they hit 1080p, then maybe it'll be noticable on a big screen, but on your standard 40" screen normal joe won't care. 480p and convenience (doesn't wear out, doesn't need rewinding etc) - exactly the advantages of CD over tape.

 

[cybamerc]

Some of you seriously underestimate the improvement that HD offers over SD.

 

[Kintaro]

Some of you seriously underestimate the improvement that HD offers over SD.

You seriously overestimate that the general populace will give a shit.

 

[kaching]

the above smells like as soon as we get used to Bluray, they'll just spring the next wave on us the next year or so on.

It does read like that, but it is Optware's own take on their situation and the motivations of the partner companies.

And unless movie studios are looking to start offering _uncompressed_ versions of their content at 1080p or higher resolution with 7.1 sound or higher (again, uncompressed), there isn't much call for terabyte class storage for pre-recorded content that I can think of in the near future. You've still got people arguing whether we need to even leave the DVD medium for the next generation of consoles.

HVD is certainly an exciting development if its the real deal but I think that if its ready for deployment anywhere within the next 5-10 yrs, it main use will be for archiving/storage, not pre-recorded content distribution. I'll be happy to upgrade from a Blu-Ray PVR to a HVD PVR whenever they're ready.

Secondly, Lieberfarb was talking about BD-ROM which simply doesn't exist at this point.

He's still just putting his bark before his bite though. Neither camp has all the details worked out, else they would be in full production. Suggesting that the BRD founders are somehow bamboozling the clients they are trying to woo makes it sound like the clients have already invested significantly in the BRD venture, when its quite the opposite. It's a beggar's banquet for movie studios right now, looking to wring concessions from both the BRD and HDDVD camps.

 

[cybamerc]

You seriously overestimate that the general populace will give a shit.

Noone cares about the general populace until a few years after launch. Launches are for the enthusiasts and there are plenty of those. As HD format players drop in price they will replace standard DVD players. Flat panel displays (of which many are already HD compatible) will replace CRTs and no TV lasts forever. Moreover flat panels are quite attractive to the average consumer who may not care too much about technicalities but wants a screen that doesn't take up too much room.

The average family will be HD compliant before you know it. And it'll happen whether they give a shit or not.

 

[mrklaw]

The average family will be HD compliant before you know it. And it'll happen whether they give a shit or not.

Now you see thats where the argument falls down. People are assuming that HD compliance = HD adoption. Thats a flawed assumption.

I agree that in a few years, HD display penetration and take up will be increasing rapidly, making HD movie delivery viable.

BUT, that doesn't automatically mean people will rebuy back catalogue, which is where DVD scored big time. I think people will be perfectly happy with DVD over HD. (especially when most displays aren't even fully 1080 lines. 720/768 is the norm).

Bit of upscaling here, bit of 480p there, lovely

They'll still be able to pop the disc in, jump to chapters, take it out without rewinding. Blah blah blah.

Don't see HD DVD being anything more than laserdisc - that was never mainstream. Course I'll still buy it.

 

[cybamerc]

mrklaw:

> BUT, that doesn't automatically mean people will rebuy back catalogue, which is where
> DVD scored big time.

Last time I checked Hollywood hadn't stopped making movies. And I think you underestimate the market for improved versions of older releases. Just look at the many rereleases on DVD. Publishers wouldn't release them if there wasn't a market for them. Not everyone will rebuy the HD version of a movie that they already own on DVD but fortunately not everyone has DVD yet. There's still a huge untapped market out there.

> (especially when most displays aren't even fully 1080 lines. 720/768 is the norm).

That will change. Besides 720p is still a significant improvement over 480i/480p.

> Don't see HD DVD being anything more than laserdisc - that was never mainstream.

LaserDiscs were expensive and lacked the support of any of the HD format. There's no comparison. Different times too. Back then the idea of having one format for movie playback and one format for movie recording was rather foreign to the average consumer.

 

[chinch]

i know some with "sony" bias have a slanted view of blu-ray, but either way the hi-def DVD scenario is looking to be a fiasco.

Sure, hi-def DVD offers a larger improvement from VHS to DVD... the problem is that the average and mainstream consumer will not recognize it since it will not look substantially improved on the majority of TVs sold in the next several years in the USA. Just go to a local electronic shop and watch "HDTV broadcasts" on the most expensive HDTV set and you will quickly see the SDTV set next to it with DVD playing looks pretty similar to the untrained eye. American Chopper in HDTV looks remarkably like American Chopper on regular TV

DVDs had big improvements over VHS such as physical/storage size, chapter stops, notable audio/video improvement, sell-thru pricing and being "cd-like" WITH YOUR EXISTING EQUIPMENT.

HiDef DVD offers the consumer more resolution and little more with your existing equipment.

Both Blu-ray and HD-DVD seem like transitional products that will not come close to matching the success of DVD or the product that succeeds them.

 

[kaching]

chinch, transitional to what though? You and others have made a similar argument that HDDVD & BRD aren't a big enough step for consumers to take notice. So what's the big enough step? What are the features it must have? And when do you think that will arrive?

 

[Kleegamefan]

Going from a 480p DVD to a 1080p BRD isn't an incremental jump....its more than SIX TIMES the resolution:

640 * 480 = 307,200 pixels per frame

1920* 1080 = 2,073,600 pixels per frame

2,073,600/307,200 = 6.75 times the resolution


And even then, resolution is only >part< of the reason HD looks so much better than SD....color fidelity in HD blows away SD DVDs and that is because DVD use a 4:2:0 color sampling format @ 8 bit resolution whereas Blu-ray disks support true 4:4:4 color sampling @ 10-12 bits per color!!!

I won't even comment on how MPEG1 on CDs compare to MPEG2 DVD movies...


DVDs, even @ 8.5 Gigs, do not have enough space to deliver 2 hour movies at those color sampling rates, let alone higher 1080p resolution, which is why they stick with 4:2:0/8bit on DVDs....you *need* more space (and bandwidth....DVD 1X is 10 mb/s, BRD 1X is 36mb/s) than this for *TRUE* HD, as you will quickly run out of space for color data on a mere DVD....this fact should be obvious, but it is lost on alot of people, it seems

I think part of the problem people people are so underwhelmed by HDTV is they are not at all watching "real" HD but are usually viewing a crappy overcompressed 17 mb/s MPEG2 1080i satellite feed that is split between a dozen or so uncalibrated HDTVs @ places like Circuit City or Good Guys...Blu-Ray will look nothing like this, FYI...

Anyone in the NYC area who wants to see a sneek preview of what 1080p BRD movies will look like should go here:

Sony Style
550 Madison Ave (at 55th Street)
New York City, NY 10022-3211
Phone: (212) 833-8800
Hours: 10am-7pm, Mon-Sat; noon-6pm, Sun
Neighborhood: Midtown
Nearest Subway Train: 4, 5 and 6 at 59th St; N and R at Lexington Ave.


Make sure you visit Sonys "One Vision of Future High-End" Exhibit....it's downstairs in the back left corner....there you will see a Sony Qualia 004 1080p LCOS projector on a 10 foot screen being fed by a Blu-Ray recorder....they usually play 1080p clips from Hellboy, Spiderman2 and others...they also have a jaw dropping demo of Lawrence of Arabia remastered in HD....this special demo has parts that are split screen so you can directly compare SD to HD side-by-side (in realtime) with Blu-ray on the left and DVD on the right...when you see it, note not only the increased resolution of BRD but how much more vivid and true the colors are (which is much more impressive, IMO)....it is nothing at all like the "HDTV" demos you see at Circuit City and the like...

Come back and give impressions

P.S. I believe just about all Sony Style Stores, (Indy, D.C., L.A. Miami, San Fran) have the One Vision of Future High-End" Exhibit....

 

[Fafalada]

HiDef DVD offers the consumer more resolution and little more with your existing equipment.

But by that logic no advanced optical format can offer a worthwhile improvement.
Even if HVD was possible today, it's still is just that - more resolution, and not really even that, with your existing equipment.

And what else is there to improve in the media? Physical size? There's only so much you can make the discs smaller before they become cumbersome to use - minidisc sized HVDs might be interesting(I figure they should still offer enough storage?), but that's still hardly a monumental improvement either.

 

[chinch]

transitional to a hi-def marketplace that has the equipment in place in the majority of homes ready, willing and able to utilitize hidef video. Much like the market was ready for DVD in the late 90s in about 5-6 years the market will be ready for blue-ray. (price of TVs lowered, plasmas much cheaper, HDTV penetration, software studios onboard, blockbuster & rental outlets providing them, copyright agreements, etc, etc.)

Now, i've had a (hi-def compatible) FP since '99 so i'm above the "joe sixpack" audience hi-def DVDs will require. I also realize hd-dvd/blu-ray is a disaster waiting to happen.

SIX TIMES the resolution improvement is mostly moot since 9 out of 10 people won't be able to view it at any greater resolution than downconverted to their existing 480i TV. Noone is going to repurchase all their DVDs on hidef just becasue they can get "six times better resolution" when in fact alot of these DVDs are viewed in bedrooms, kids rooms, on PCs, etc. In all actuality the HD-DVDs will look a bit cleaner/crisper to the average person... not a night and day comparison (as was VHS to DVD).

it is obvious that hidef DVD is being forced to market because the studios/hw makers feel DVD saturation will be reached in 2006 and they want to gear up another round of selling the same old movies (and audio/video gear) again, this time in HD.

 

[chinch]

btw - i just watched Tora! Tora! Tora! on dvd and having been shot in Panavision obviously bluray/hd-dvd would greatly benefit this type movie (more so than releasing "Friends" episides on bluray). I was stunned at the quality of this DVD, given it was shot in the early 70s. IMHO you'd have to do a full restoration before releasing this to bluray, and honestly the average viewer would barely discern a difference, much like they don't today with "HDTV" as klee expanded upon.

now, in several years as "restoration" procedures are more automated and technology leaps ahead its a moot point... hi-def will appear. Hopefully no time soon as it needs to explode into the market like "DVD" did... not be another "laserdisc" (good product, ahead of it's time, still with flaws).

 

[mrklaw]

Going from a 480p DVD to a 1080p BRD isn't an incremental jump....its more than SIX TIMES the resolution:

come on klee, don't play the dumb numbers game, you know its not that straightforward. Sure, in theory 1080p has six times more pixels or whatever, but there ain't any screens going to be showing all of them.

Maybe when the currently vapourware SEDs/NEDs turn up, or the $25,000 1080 line LCDs come down in price you'll see a *few* in rich videophile households, but don't think average joe is going to upgrade again, when he can get 'HD' TV for a grand.

Face it, for the next 5 years, most HD screens in the US will be 720 lines tops. And those HD screens will still be a minority of all screens in the US.

Sure, it'll be lovely eventually, but its going to take a long time, and until then it'll just be laserdisc - I'm not talking specs, but just demographics. Isolated to rich/enthusiastic video nuts, and far from the success DVD has been.

Last time I checked Hollywood hadn't stopped making movies. And I think you underestimate the market for improved versions of older releases. Just look at the many rereleases on DVD. Publishers wouldn't release them if there wasn't a market for them.

Again, DVDs main success has been the ability of publishers to rerelease back catalogue, just like they did with CD. Once people have done that, there is a resistance to rebuy for quite a while. CD was a good reason. DVD was a good reason. I don't see HD being a good reason for 5+ years.

There's still a huge untapped market out there.

Sure, but the untapped part is people who don't even have a DVD player yet. At $50 for a player, those guys still aren't interested. So they aren't going to suddenly shell out $500 for a Blu-ray player

 

[Kleegamefan]

According to this Blu-ray PDF.

http://www.blu-raydisc-official.org/association/data/bda04.pdf

HDTVs will account for 50% of the entire US TV market by 2007

They predict that in America, 25 million HDTVs will be sold in 2006 alone

Last year, HDTV sales were up 128% over the previous year, according to Twice.com.....with the introduction of Field Emmission Displays(Carbon Nanotube or otherwise), HDTVs will be radically cheaper by 2007....Sony is privvy to this information since they are developing FEDs of their own...

Also, what do you think a BRD-equipped PlayStation 3 will do to the demand of HD displays???...to the moon alice!!!!!!

HDTVs, in case you didn't notice by their appearence at places like Wal-mart, are becoming more mainstream by the day, but unlike 2006, we do not have widespread access to affordable HD movies (BRD) affordable HD players (PS3) or affordable HDTVs (FEDs)....these roadblocks will move aside one, by, one and when they are all gone (in 2006-ish, IMO) you will see the monster 25mill HDTV sales the BRD group predict....*SOMETHING* is going on behind the seems for them to predicit those kind of sales and I think FEDs and PS3 has something to do with it!!!

BTW, Toshiba will be showing their SED TVs in October at the SEATEC show....

http://blog.sagetechnology.com/techsage/archive/2004/09/02/217.aspx

 

[chinch]

take those "stats" with a grain of salt... especially the USA market where the studios care about first and foremost.

bluray on PS3 (xbox, whatever) is mostly moot in the real world, since the studios (Fox, Disney, Paramount, Dreamworks, MGM, etc) will decide what is sold and available on hi-def... nevermind the kids buying PS3 play in dorm rooms, bedrooms and mostly can't afford to buy into HDTV except the more mature audience (not the average PS3 buyer).

i doubt many high-schoolers will successfully lobby their parents for 54" hdtv sets for their bedroom as a x-mas gift

Still EVEN IF 2007 is a realistic date for enough "customers" ready, willing and able to do HDTV, to be honest they're better waiting until 2006 to finalize the spec, getting the manufacturers ALL on the same page and do "hi-def DVDs" later rather than sooner.

what the rush is i have no idea how it benefits consumers long-term???

 

[OmniGamer]

Anyone in the NYC area who wants to see a sneek preview of what 1080p BRD movies will look like should go here:

Sony Style
550 Madison Ave (at 55th Street)
New York City, NY 10022-3211
Phone: (212) 833-8800
Hours: 10am-7pm, Mon-Sat; noon-6pm, Sun
Neighborhood: Midtown
Nearest Subway Train: 4, 5 and 6 at 59th St; N and R at Lexington Ave.

Thanks for the heads up....i'm so there!

 

[Go Go Ackman!]

DURR TOO EXPENSIVE FOR PLAYSTATION 3 DURRR

 

[Lord Error]

um... HVD has been demo'ed already. I don't think it's vapourware.

And a 1 Terabyte per DVD sized disk, that would certain fulfill everyones storage needs

I am not sure if this was answered already, but yes - that format is not vaporware, and no, it's not ready for prime time yet. Sony and certain other (unnamed) big companies are investing into that company right now, expecting to see that format be used perhaps as a future replacement for Blu Ray.

 

[cybamerc]

mrklaw:

> but there ain't any screens going to be showing all of them.

By that logic most ppl shouldn't be buying DVDs either. Lots of ppl own crappy TVs that can't deliver the kind of picture it takes to get the full experience of the medium.

> Face it, for the next 5 years, most HD screens in the US will be 720 lines tops.

Still a significant improvement. And if you have a 720p capable set surely you will want a maximize its potential by getting a HD capable player.

> And those HD screens will still be a minority of all screens in the US.

But the people with HD screens are the ones who are likely to pick up an HD player early on.

> Isolated to rich/enthusiastic video nuts, and far from the success DVD has been.

DVD wasn't a household item from day one. It took DVD six years to overtake VHS and noone expects HD formats to overtake DVDs on the day of release.

 

[Crazymoogle]

Crazymoogle:Not really. First of all, the BRD recorders out in Japan are essentially alpha products. They haven't been designed to live up to the final specs. They will be obsolete once the spec is finalized. Secondly, Lieberfarb was talking about BD-ROM which simply doesn't exist at this point.

They're working, retail-available products - clear proof of concept if nothing else. Obviously Liberfarb was talking about BD-ROM, but he was also making some pretty sweeping statements about whether Blu-Ray technology was even possible.

By comparison, HD-DVD products really are vaporware at this point in time.

 

[mrklaw]

First, an apology. Just been looking through the current issue of "Digimon Station" (8/04), and they have a page on *Full HD* screens.

Including apparantly a 45" Sharp LCD for about £5k ($10).

Full as in 1920x1080 pixels. I think all are LCD panels, but there is an Epson screen which might be LCOS?


Anyway, I still don't see mass penetration anytime soon, but I sure as heck want to get one of those screens!


That PDF is by an interested party, so the stats can say what they want. These sort of things nearly always have insane hockey curves on takeup/revenue potential - thats how they get people to take interest.

That 50% figure is most likely purchases, not installed base. Very different numbers. Although I'm sure its accurate, as most screens will be HD ready by default by 2007

But the people with HD screens are the ones who are likely to pick up an HD player early on.

I'm not disagreeing with you there, but its a minority of a minority. People on here are discussing mass take up very quickly. I just don't see it happening the way DVD has. Just cause the consumer electronics guys want to make some more money doesn't mean consumers will be ready to spend.

 

[Crazymoogle]

First, an apology. Just been looking through the current issue of "Digimon Station" (8/04), and they have a page on *Full HD* screens.

This is the ongoing roll of technology; LCD has had some recent breakthroughs, DLP is expected to have full resolution this year, and respectable LCOS sets are already there.

TV manufacturers are getting really excited about these trends, because the manufacturing prices are falling with the release of new technologies as opposed to once current technologies age enough. Sure, the Sony PDF was as much an advertisement as anything, but the feeling behind it is shared by every player in the industry. Everybody is expecting HD sets to continue to drop in price, and judging by current lineups CRTs are starting to be phased out.

Intel's boast of 1k LCOS sets this year fell through as announced earlier, but with LCOS and LCD, the problem of cost does become solvable through better engineering rather than CRT which is typically defined by part costs.

The customer base won't just smash through the roof overnight, but a 5 year DVD-like cycle isn't out of the realm of possibility. It's just going to take the right product with the best cost-reduction term plan to do it.

 

[mrklaw]

and just as I got all excited about full HD, I read an EU report saying they are recommending 720p for HD in Europe

Twats say that its becuase for average screens up to 50", 720p is enough to saturate the screen from a 3m viewing distance, and requires lower bitrate.

Firstly, some people might use a projector, so more is better. Secondly, don't start with bitrate and work backwards - start with a good signal and then decide what bitrate/how many channels are possible.

I really hope they back pedal and go 1080p. The P is definite, they see no point in interlaced broadcasting due to the switch to fixed panels.

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

Doherty reviewed the results of a recent visual quality test of MPEG-4 AVC with FRExt. “At 8 and 12 megabits per second it actually has been judged to be superior to D-VHS and at 16 and 20 megabits per second it is indistinguishable from the D-5 original source tape

well, that certainly sold me on the product.

 

[P90]

My take on this is that both camps are wrong. The transition to a higher definition is only an incremental improvement over DVD, unlike DVD and CD which were revolutionary improvements over previous analog formats - hence their success.

I see this go the same route as SACD - just doesn't make a difference to a mass market of which most have and will continue to have low end TVs and crappy speakers.

By the time the mass market has changed over to HDTVs in any meaningful percentages of overall market both of these formats will be dead as rocks and people have fat pipes of data coming to their homes.

IAWTP. These are products for technowankers, not the public for a number of years. I'm not happy with the market jumping from one format to the next. Present DVD tech is good enough to be most people's medium of choice for a looooooong time. Low price is GOOD.

I'll be getting a PS3 about a year into its life. (Unless there is a great trade in deal). If it has Blu-ray, it won't look much better than any of this gen's consoles on my $450 TV. Nor do I care enough to spend big bucks to upgrade the set. When a decent-sized HDTV comes down to the half grand price point, then I'll buy. I may sound like Iwata, but I agree with him that technology has NOT made games better or more enjoyable this gen. (Especially RPGs). I see it doing even less next gen.

 

[cybamerc]

Crazymoogle:

> By comparison, HD-DVD products really are vaporware at this point in time.

If the HD-DVD ppl didn't care about living up to the specs or the lack of content there could be HD-DVD players out today.



mrklaw:

> Full as in 1920x1080 pixels. I think all are LCD panels

1080p plasmas will be available this year if they aren't already.

> Anyway, I still don't see mass penetration anytime soon

You don't need a 1080p native display to enjoy the benifits of HD. HD capable flat screens are quite common and they are quickly eating into the sales of CRTs. It won't be long before the majority of all new TVs sold to consumers are flat screens.

> I'm not disagreeing with you there, but its a minority of a minority.

Doesn't matter. Noone expect to sell millions of players from day one. Early products will be expensive and will mainly appeal to enthusiasts. The manufacturers know this. They're counting on it. Launch is 1.5+ year away. Then it takes another coouple of years before the price drops to mass market levels and the average consumer start to take notice.

> I read an EU report saying they are recommending 720p for HD in Europe

Doesn't matter. Terrestial broadcasts will be 480i. We'll get native 1080p displays in Europe eventually anyway.

 

[DDayton]

I think I'd agree with the crowd that says that the average consumer won't see a major difference between DVD and HD-DVD, and won't want to pay for a new unit.

Then again, I'm the guy who seriously doubts that the nation's tv waves will switch over to only high definition broadcasts in a few years... yeah, it's been "mandated", but mandates mean nothing if the big corporations notice that most of their consumers won't have access.

 

[Razoric]

I'm sticking only with DVDs until I can download movies off of a service.

 

[Cooper]

Then again, I'm the guy who seriously doubts that the nation's tv waves will switch over to only high definition broadcasts in a few years... yeah, it's been "mandated", but mandates mean nothing if the big corporations notice that most of their consumers won't have access.

HD was never mandated, only digital broadcasting. Digital broadcasts can still be 480i.

 

[maximum360]

DTV is required not HDTV. All HD is DTV but not all DTV is HD.

Actually, there will a 1080p DLP available this year (I think from Samsung) with a retail price of $6000 (and I think it's a 61 incher).

Also, there's to be a Sharp 1080p LCD by years end and I think that's in the 50" range. I won't even try to guess the cost of that one.

I look forward to 1080p but I also realize it will probably take a couple years for the tech to mature enough where it's reasonably priced and goes beyond consumer beta testing stages (well at least a year for that one). Until then I'll continue to enjoy HD football and other things on my 51" RP CRT. There's no way I'll spend money on anything else other than 1080p (so no expensive 720p sets for me).

In a couple years the prices of DLPs, Plasmas, LCDs, RP LCDs that push 720p should drop drastically.

 

[kaching]

IAWTP. These are products for technowankers, not the public for a number of years.

What part of any of this sounds like its coming tomorrow? Read the material provided - next gen HD discs won't be hitting shores outside of Japan en masse until mid 2005, earliest. Then there will be the early adopter phase probably through all of 2006 and into 2007. By the time things really start to pick up for the "public" it'll probablt be 2008. There's your number of years.

Don't miscontrue the eagerness for this tech from some like myself and klee to somehow mean we expect worldwide acceptance for this tech to be right around the corner. There's a lot of "ifs" still to be addressed and we're all aware of that, but things continue to progress which is a positive sign.

As for claiming you have to be a technowanker to appreciate this stuff, I think the main problem is that many people in this world have a hard time visualizing a concept simply based on being told about it. Many people simply have to be shown how something can be improved and why that's of merit. Obviously, for High Def media, it's more telling than showing right now. But once HD products and content are more readily available and properly displayed in public environments, I think many more people will start to get it.

 

[chinch]

What part of any of this sounds like its coming tomorrow? Read the material provided - next gen HD discs won't be hitting shores outside of Japan en masse until mid 2005, earliest. Then there will be the early adopter phase probably through all of 2006 and into 2007. By the time things really start to pick up for the "public" it'll probablt be 2008. There's your number of years.

DVD adoption rate was ALOT faster and if you are conceding until 2008 until this is mass-market the product will be a sub-niche product (if it even lasts in the market). I dont' think i can last as a "laserdisc-like" niche product as studios will kill it by lack of support and stores won't stock in (in America).

You guys surely must recall the early DVD days where people like Lucas, his buddy & Cameron were saying "We'll wait until there's a larger installed base to release our movies (titanic, star wars, etc).

I can sort of understand your excitement (alot of people like technology more than movies) but this is coming too soon and offers little tangible benefits to consumers who are buying DVDs in droves.