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[Bonfires Down]

Game Pass has been on the market for about three years now and has gathered 10+ million subscribers at this point. It's a pretty good number, but subscriptions have also been heavily subsidized by Microsoft, and the assumption is that they are taking significant losses at the moment. For comparison, PS Now was at 2.2 million subscribers in April.

xCloud has also recently launched on Android so it's now possible to stream all Game Pass games on mobile, and presumably streaming will eventually be available on all devices that allow it. Will this greatly expand the audience or do you think that people who are interested in these kinds of games already own a console?

Microsoft's Xbox is already crushing Sony's PlayStation when it comes to creating the 'Netflix of gaming' — and it has huge implications for next-gen consoles

When it comes to subscription-based gaming libraries, Microsoft's Xbox is way ahead of Sony's PlayStation.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Craig of War]

If you do the math it gone to be 40 million if it stay at the same pace it growing which is 10 million subscribers ever 3 years cause since Gamepass was announce in 2017 it was reveal to have 10 million subscribers by 2020 so if you add 10 million subscribers ever 3 years by 2030 it will be 40 million plus.

 

[Husky]

at least a dozen

 

[Bridges]

It's tough to say. I think it will really depend on if people that don't own an Xbox think Ultimate is worth it for xCloud.

 

[Kerotan Frog]

I cancelled my subscription yesterday, so I'm voting dead. It looks like an unsustainable business model that will eventually burst.

 

[Mistershine.]

More than 10 but less than a trillion, as a rough ball park figure.

 

[lachesis]

I don’t think it will be anything similar to what we have now. Probably called something else with newer features thats feaseable at that time - could be 100% platform free service or whatnot.

 

[AV]

In 2030 it probably won't be "Game Pass". You'll probably just have an "Xbox Subscription" or some shit and it'll be almost universal across everyone who streams the games directly to some dongle they play into their TV.

 

[LittleBusters]

It will survive the heat death of the universe, which is 10^1800 years.

 

[DESTROYA]

 

[ACESHIGH]

Hopefully consoles are dead by then. All hail SteamPass

 

[LostDonkey]

500 billion

 

[Greeno]

In 2030 it probably won't be "Game Pass". You'll probably just have an "Xbox Subscription" or some shit and it'll be almost universal across everyone who streams the games directly to some dongle they play into their TV.

Do you really think they will drop "GamePass" and not "Xbox"? "GamePass" is just too good of a name to drop, it is like "Netflix". Easy on the tongue and easily marketable.

 

[Spokker]

A lot of people, myself included, are riding high on gamepass due to the fact that we filled up on the subscription until 2021 very cheaply.

I still haven't decided if I would pay the full monthly fee for it.

 

[AV]

Do you really think they will drop "GamePass" and not "Xbox"? "GamePass" is just too good of a name to drop, it is like "Netflix". Easy on the tongue and easily marketable.

Either or. I can imagine people having an "Xbox subscription" in 2030. You got Xbox bro? Yeah bro, new games on Xbox. Game Pass is still part of Xbox, it's just the extra part.

 

[The_Mike]

at least a dozen

 

[Andodalf]

Ranges of 10 million is way too granular OP

 

[THE DUCK]

Seriously hate to revive this thread, but 43% think gp will be dead in 2030? Really?
I wonder if they might change thier vote now that we are at 18 million.

 

[TaylorSwiftFan]

Seriously hate to revive this thread, but 43% think gp will be dead in 2030? Really?
I wonder if they might change thier vote now that we are at 18 million.

I think people will change their votes once it becomes profitable.

 

[Stuart360]

Seriously hate to revive this thread, but 43% think gp will be dead in 2030? Really?
I wonder if they might change thier vote now that we are at 18 million.

To be fair it will probably be called something different by then, and offer more than it does at the moment. Obviously the principle of an Xbox subscription service will still be alive.
I picked 70mil, as i'm expecting 50mil by the end of this gen as it is.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

I'm really bullish on Microsoft's long term vision here. They want to provide a true Netflix for gaming, you'd have a huge portfolio of games you can play on literally any device you own for a reasonable monthly fee. By 2030 the portfolio should be full of nice first party games. And the technical limitations of streaming (low bandwith, low volume, high latency) should also be solved by then.

 

[martino]

lot of things not directly related to gaming impacting will happen by then...
i don't really know how things will be but i also don't think business as usual like we know it will last until that date
So i vote dead because it will disappear or be something else (but same apply for all competion too)

 

[Kimahri]

People who think it'll be dead sure are lost

 

[Bonfires Down]

Seriously hate to revive this thread, but 43% think gp will be dead in 2030? Really?
I wonder if they might change thier vote now that we are at 18 million.

I’ve noticed that the first responders to polls tend to be... special. If there had been more votes I think it would look different as the results can sometimes change dramatically later on.

 

[Topher]

The gaming industry overall has been bolstered by an increased presence in the home the past year due to the pandemic. Game Pass as well. So the question to me is whether this growth will continue if/when the world starts venturing outside the home again for entertainment. Beyond that, the key to Game Pass is going to be mobile subscribers. Microsoft isn't making a lot of money off of Game Pass. So if the margins are not good then the volume needs to make up for it. The question in my mind is whether mobile gamers really want AAA console games on their phones. Not so sure, but that's the difference between Game Pass tapping out at, let's say, 30 million and reaching over 100 million.

 

[KungFucius]

Threw in a guess at 40 million. I suspect more will dip in and dip out and I think there might be some subscription managing service or App that helps facilitate that. FFS we have GamePass, Ubisoft + , Netflix, HBO, Disney, Paramount, Hulu, Amazon ( hard to cancel due to other benefits) , etc. People might not want to be subbed to all, all of the time, but will want to rotate, get their temporary fill and then move to another service for a little while. At least they will want to do that if they want to save a couple hundred bucks each year.

 

[Jadsey]

I don't think the business model holds up and it will be gone by 2025 latest

 

[Flutta]

GP is a money sink for MS, that shit wont survive for that long. It will burst soner or later.

 

[Mattyp]

GP is a money sink for MS, that shit wont survive for that long. It will burst soner or later.

Can I have access to the accounting documents you managed to get hold of for the personal computing division so I can make an educated decision on my shares.

Cheers,

 

[yurinka]

Maybe a couple of dozens. But real subscriptors, the ones who pay a full subscriptions.

 

[Three]

In 2030 it probably won't be "Game Pass". You'll probably just have an "Xbox Subscription" or some shit and it'll be almost universal across everyone who streams the games directly to some dongle they play into their TV.

They actually got rid of the word xbox in favour of gamepass. I don't think they will go back to "xbox" otherwise they would have got rid of Gamepass instead.

 

[Negotiator101]

It's gonna be close to 100 million by then, 2030 the gaming landscape will be very different to how it is today.

 

[Negotiator101]

GP is a money sink for MS, that shit wont survive for that long. It will burst soner or later.

I'm lost for words in all honesty, all you can do with comments like this is smile and wave.

 

[Kerotan]

I think 40/50M max.

 

[prinz_valium]

Either 200m+ or it will be dead.

 

[LittleBusters]

GP is a money sink for MS, that shit wont survive for that long. It will burst soner or later.

They said the same thing about Netflix. Now they have 200 million subs.

 

[deriks]

I guess that will be very big by then

And I think that Steam will launch at least something close to it. Not the entire library, but a massive one. We will compare it to Netflix, while Game Pass will be the Prime Video of gaming

 

[D.Final]

Good question

 

[Plantoid]

When 5g hits for real, things will be very different, xcloud is the key

 

[DaleinCalgary]

I have it till 2023 but its basically garbage right now.

edit: forza horizons is great

 

[BusierDonkey]

Once they acquire Sega next Wednesday it will cause a cascade effect and subscriber counts will multiply tenfold in a single year.

Serious note, if they can get deliver Gamepass on smart TVs and other devices with decent performance levels I could see the service really taking off.