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Elon Musk believes Tesla's will be able to drive wholly autonomously within 2 years

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gutshot

Member
From The Washington Post:

Tesla on Sunday unveiled new software updates to improve the self-driving capabilities of its vehicles, including new limits on highway speeds and a way for owners to “summon” their empty vehicles.

But Tesla chief executive Elon Musk said he already believes the technology has proven itself, even though Tesla introduced the self-driving software into its fleet of vehicles only late last year and even that didn't turn the vehicles into fully autonomous vehicles.

“It’s probably better than a person right now (at driving),” Musk said during a conference call with reporters.

Musk also expects rapid improvements over the next 24 to 36 months, when a Tesla “will be able to drive virtually all roads at a safety level significantly better than humans,” he said.

Tesla tweaks the software running its vehicles by analyzing data from the hundreds of millions of miles driven by current owners. The automaker is constantly updated the autopilot software, which it still considers to be an unfinished “beta” product. But, Musk said, he was not aware of any accidents caused by auto pilot. He said the closest scenario were accidents where drivers mistakenly believed they were in auto-pilot mode.

The new software updates show the progress Tesla appears to have made – what Musk called “baby steps” toward fully autonomous vehicles.

With the “summon” feature, a driver can tell her Tesla to park itself or pull out from a parking spot or garage.

For now, the driver has to be standing nearby. But Musk said he sees that changing quickly.

“I think within two years you’ll be able to summon your car from across the country,” Musk said, allowing that he might be a little optimistic about the time frame.

The automaker also pushed out new limits on its current autopilot driving feature. Now, Teslas in autopilot mode will be capped to driving 5 mph over the speed limit on undivided highways and in residential neighborhoods. Also, the autopilot feature will now slow – like a human driver might -- when driving along curved roads.

Based Elon dragging us into the future.
 

Bluth54

Member
Two years seems way too optimistic but I can't wait for fully automated cars, there will be so many fewer accidents and personally I find driving very boring so I can't wait until I can kick back and do something else while my car drives me somewhere.
 
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Deleted member 80556

Unconfirmed Member
I wonder if Google is doing this well with their self driving cars.

You mean every man owning a Tesla can be.... THE BATMAN?!

Brb buying Tesla stock.

Aren't they releasing their mainstream car next year too? It does seem like a good time to purchase stock!
 
This is probably my most desired future thing. Except I live in Michigan so I will probably have to drive at least half the year unless it has better ways than me of figuring out where the road is.

Still, I think I'll buy a Tesla sometime. I love the idea of these kind of updates being pushed out.
 

Akuun

Looking for meaning in GAF
Please make all cars self-driving soon.

I always feel like my daily commute is a ticking time bomb for me. It's only a matter of time before I fuck up, or before someone fucks up around me. I don't like my chances of survival.
 

Barzul

Member
Model III might be my next car. Just need to read up on the recharging process and etc. I currently live in AR but I doubt I'll still be here in 2017 when that model roles around. Hopefully will live closer to supercharger stations by that time
 

jblank83

Member
I Just Drove 15 Hours yesterday (and those same 15 hours last Wednesday), so this day can't come soon enough.

Exactly. I enjoy driving but being able to sit back and play a game, listen to music, read a book, have a meal, a conversation, or studying would be a wonderful option.
 

Daemul

Member
I Just Drove 15 Hours yesterday (and those same 15 hours last Wednesday), so this day can't come soon enough.

Agreed. Before I started driving I was so desperate to get my license and be a driver, it seemed so damn cool, now I look back at those days and wonder just what the fuck was wrong with me. The quicker self driving cars come in the better.
 

Theonik

Member
What the fuck is google and everyone else doing then?
Google has actually self driving cars in testing. They aren't releasing anything but they are further along than Tesla at the moment. BMW and some other German automakers have fairly similar self-driving features in newer premium or concept cars.

Tesla is unique in that they are more keen to have the 'easy' features available for their customers now. But it's very much going to be a thing from everyone major in 2-5 years.

Elon is quite optimistic about his timeframes.
 
Isnt the biggest hurdle when it comes to autonomous vehicles are the current regulations in place preventing cars from being fully autonomous?

Didnt Google have that problem recently in California?

We know the technology is there but until lawmakers side with the automovite manufacturers, it seems like manufacturers are stuck teasing us for the foreseeable future :/
 
He forget to mention in a parking lot only because no way that will get through all the appropriate legal channels that quickly and that's assuming the tech progresses at his anticipated level.

Please make all cars self-driving soon.

I always feel like my daily commute is a ticking time bomb for me. It's only a matter of time before I fuck up, or before someone fucks up around me. I don't like my chances of survival.

You realize that will not happen in our lifetime right? A lot of people like driving their cars.
 
I dunno. I feel like automated cars are one of the things I dont want to be an early adopter of. I will pick one up after they have been patched.
 

Lord Error

Insane For Sony
Significantly better than humans at driving is a pretty low bar.
What should he compare it to then? I mean even now, the most advanced self-driving system (which would be Google's, by some measure) can't drive at all in snow and heavy rain, which is something almost every person can.
 

Foffy

Banned
Bring it. I want to see technology come and hit us, so we have to be forced to change many of our ideas about society.

It's the only way we're moving, anyway, so might as well take a deep breath and take the blows.
 

Theonik

Member
He forget to mention in a parking lot only because no way that will get through all the appropriate legal channels that quickly and that's assuming the tech progresses at his anticipated level.
Teslas already are able to self-drive in roads. As long as the driver is in the car most road laws do not restrict self-driving car. Legal definitions are quite silly at the moment.
 

Calabi

Member
Well I figured everyone else was way behind I heard projections of 5 and 10 years. Things like they hadn't been tested in all weathers and road surfaces etc. Or maybe this is just Musk being optimistic?
 
What about it?

Eventually that would be conquered too. The biggest leap is getting fully autonomous vehicles, everything after that is just refining it.
I don't know, I've been in situations where I think it would be unable to work at all. That day where we received almost 18 inches of snow would be quite the test for an autonomous car. I don't doubt it might work someday, but I'd be really surprised to see it in the near future.
 

Odinson

Member
I'm looking forward to a future were the daily drive is autonomous. I see to many accidents everyday on my commute. Also I can't wait for the reveal of the model 3. I'm thinking that's my next car.
 

Scipio

Member
giphy.gif
 
And yet I won't be able to summon my car from across the country because all the idiot states in between will listen to the Big Three, the dealerships and fossil fuel companies and fail to build charging stations.
 

Dreavus

Member
Two years seems way too optimistic but I can't wait for fully automated cars, there will be so many fewer accidents and personally I find driving very boring so I can't wait until I can kick back and do something else while my car drives me somewhere.

Absolutely. Reading a book or just relaxing is what's great about taking public transit. If I could have that while my car drives itself? Sign me up.

Once it's at an acceptable safety level I am all for this.
 

subrock

Member
There is absolutely no way the Model 3 is going to have autonomous driving. That'll be strictly for the Model S or higher.
I disagree. It likely won't be a base feature set, but all it is is a sensor package and actuator/motors on certain components. They would be daft not to offer it on their mass market car.

I like the words they come up with for this autonomous stuff: Auto pilot, summoning. None of it sounds like "autonomous driving" and I think that has a certain ability to disarm. Hopefully we get this "oh, cool" reaction for long enough to sneak these kinds of features into features that are taken for granted.
 
The effect this will have on the economy will be intense. There are millions of drivers who will be out of work and there will also be millions of healthcare professionals not needed due to lower levels of accidents.

I'm not positive that the US will handle this transition well.
 

ElFly

Member
Well I figured everyone else was way behind I heard projections of 5 and 10 years. Things like they hadn't been tested in all weathers and road surfaces etc. Or maybe this is just Musk being optimistic?

The google car seems to have a lot of problems with some weathers, and they need the map completely updated to the latest changes or it has problems, at least that was the last we saw of them last year.

Of course, we have more insight on Google's project because they allow us so, but that doesn't mean anything about the state of other car manufacturer's projects. Maybe they have better tech than google, maybe they don't. If we assume Tesla is at the same point as Google, well, two years seems wildly optimistic.
 

strikeselect

You like me, you really really like me!
I don't think any of these companies' autonomous driving features will be as good as Google's tbh. Goog has been working on this stuff far longer than anyone else and have way more data to work with.
 
The effect this will have on the economy will be intense. There are millions of drivers who will be out of work and there will also be millions of healthcare professionals not needed due to lower levels of accidents.

I'm not positive that the US will handle this transition well.
Valid point on the former but I doubt the employment of healthcare professionals would suffer all that much - there are plenty of other patients to tend to. People working in car insurance on the other hand...
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
This will be a far off hope until suddenly it's a reality, and then it will be everywhere. There will be no transition.
 

Kinitari

Black Canada Mafia
What should he compare it to then? I mean even now, the most advanced self-driving system (which would be Google's, by some measure) can't drive at all in snow and heavy rain, which is something almost every person can.
Bad weather condition driving is being worked on, and there's progress being made. Nvidia has a car driving in snow, they showed it off during CES, and it wasn't even a real self driving effort, that self driving software is just there to show off their new platform.

There have been significant improvements in hardware (solid state lidar seems like a big deal) and software in the last 12 months that make tackling this problem feasible.
 
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