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[The Dutch Slayer]

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vs

So almost a year ago we still listened to 1up yours/4guys1up podcast and David Ellis and John Davison where on the podcast just before 2010.
They did a prediction show and I wanted to know how it turned out so I listend to it again.
This is basically a fanboy John D thread, but I just wanted to see how acurate you can be if your wired in the industry or can you just make monkey predictions and have the same results?
I know a lot of what they say seems logical and sometimes a little out there, but for me it was a great show and I would love it if Garnett could get John in again to do a prediction show with Jeff, Brain and him.
I would like some help to make this more complete with more fact tracking and more prediction squash or confirms.
Thanks in advance for that!

And all assign a point to what came true and what did not, if their almost right I'll give 0.5 points.

DL link for the podcast:
http://podcast.the1upnetwork.com/flat/1UPYours/4G1U122509.mp3

Also John's game pro article predictions for 2010:
http://www.gamepro.com/article/features/213400/2010-video-game-predictions/

And here is what I found:
(time stamps are all in minutes)

42:00
John:
Hopped that David Jaffe, does a small creative game with his talented and NOT Twisted Metal $25 million project that takes years to make.
Now we all know how that turned out.

POINTS: 0

47:25
Ellis:
I think that in 2010 game release street dates are more that ofter broken en more games come out before their supposed to.
POINTS: 0

50:55
Ellis:
Dante Inferno will outsell Bayanetta

United States NPD Group sales data showed that the PS3 and Xbox 360 versions of Dante's Inferno sold 242,500 and 224,700 copies respectively in the month of February 2010 The two editions also debuted together on the UK's top 10 games list for that month.

So that's about 470.000 copies
Bayanetta sold:

February 5, 2010, Sega Sammy reported that Bayonetta has sold 1.1 million units worldwide

POINTS: 0

51:15
John:
Darksiders was REALLY send to die instate of Borderlands (witch did very well as well all know).

"Darksiders didn't perform up to THQ's expectations, likely selling less than 1 million units

Vigil Games/THQ has shipped 1.2 million copies worldwide in its first four weeks.

My 2cents: So that is not really "send to die" but the game could have done better.
POINTS: 0

55:00
John and Ellis:
If a game is great and it has DLC in mind from day 1 and people want to because the game model learns towards it you can do about an expention a month and have it sell great until people stop playing the game. (talking about borderlands).

Downloadable content
* 5.1 The Zombie Island of Dr. Ned
* 5.2 Mad Moxxi's Underdome Riot
* 5.3 The Secret Armory of General Knoxx
* 5.4 Claptrap's New Robot Revolution

POINTS: 0.5

58:30
John:
At least 1 of the 4 Biggest Publishers will be both in 2010
John says: EA
Well EA is still here
POINTS: 0

61:00
John and Ellis:
More outsourcing and teams playing to their strengths.

Medal of Honor 2010 and Bioshock 2 did it

POINTS: 1

63:00
Ellis:
EA spots is going to return to an old franchise where you use your "Femur"
http://www.walgreens.com/marketing/library/graphics/images/en/7015.jpg

Oh, and for the record the "femur" game was NBA Jam. On an episode a few weeks later after it was announced I believe I said it would "absolutely" be coming to 360 and PS3 as well.

POINTS: 1

66:00
John:
Theme of 2010 reboot your franchise and Ellis says games shift platforms that you would not expect

DMC, Mortal Kombat and rumor for now Tomb Raider and Hitman

POINTS: 1

67:20
Ellis:
E3 2010 Diablo 3 announced for console(s)
Short answer NO NO AND NO, Long answer maybe?

“I think it is suited to consoles,” senior designer Jason Bender told VG247 at Blizzcon last weekend, speaking to Nathan Grayson.
“We’re definitely working, obviously, on the PC version. This is something that’s been brought up a lot about Diablo.”
He added: “It’s sort of an ongoing question. And I’m sure we would all love to play it on console, but right now, we’re just focused on what we’ve got in front of us. Who knows what the future holds? It’s hard to say.”

POINTS: 0

68:00
Ellis and John, we WILL 100% have a subscription for PSN in 2010:
He how about that:

Sony has confirmed its intentions to offer a premium for-pay version of the PlayStation Network. The name is slightly different from what was initially reported, and will now be called PlayStation Plus.

POINTS: 1

69:00
John:
You will be getting into stuff because of Paying with a "pass" for games from the same company

PSN plus lets you in beta's from sony LBP2 and KZ3

POINTS: 1

72:10
John: "2010 Wii HD/2" will be announced but not released.
But will be to the DS what the DSi was so not a 100% new console.

Well we all know that did NOT happen .
POINTS: 0

77:00
Ellis:
Natal aka Kinect is turned down in scope to have a better price point

Although the sensor unit was originally planned to contain a microprocessor that would perform operations such as the system's skeletal mapping, it was revealed in January 2010 that the sensor would no longer feature a dedicated processor. Instead processing would be handled by one of the processor cores of the Xbox 360's Xenon CPU.

Ellis +- $50
Not true its $150
POINTS: 1

79:20
Ellis:
Kinect will have space problem with Kinect more than people think now (end of 2009)
100% correct.
POINTS: 1

79:35
John and Ellis:
3D gaming will be big but not THE thing for gaming in 2010 yet Sony will push it hard to sell tv's and CES 2010 will be flooded with 3D.
POINTS: 1

82:50
John:
PSP talk; he says psp should die and go away.
But what he thinks is going to happen is that Sony tries different things to try to have more life into it.
Biggest problem software sales in the USA and EU
POINTS: 1

88:15
Ellis we will here at some point in 2010 talk about a PSP phone because it needs to become a platform that is always connected.
They even talk about the smart thing to do for sony in to license PSN to androit and still have Sony make the hardware with androit and PSN together.

The PlayStation Phone is real

http://www.engadget.com/2010/10/27/the-playstation-phone-is-still-real/
Also price dropping for PSPgo and they should do a PSP2 because its so cluster fucked at the moment (end 2009).
POINTS: 1

89:30
John:
Download a client on your ps3 for free and pay for the game as you go alone and play it.
Aka more "freemium games"
Well not on the ps3 YET.

EA's announced a realistic first-person free-to-play PC Battlefield game set in the modern theater of war and designed to appear to hardcore shooter fans.

POINTS: 0.5

90:50
John:
The next "real ds" is going to be "always online" (aka 3g), not a phone but needs to be connected.
And very surprising he predicts that the price will go up AGAIN and it did.

¥25,000 +- $300

(for now I know the $ price will probably be lower than that).
POINTS: 0.5 (for the price no 3G (yet anyway))

92:00
Ellis:
EA spots Madden subscription
Well that did not happen this year.
POINTS: 0

95:00
John:
In 2010 you will buy more boxed games and than with a subscription because they want you to get hooked into their brands and games.
POINTS: 0

97:00
John:
When you like a "AAA" game that you play at home, when your not there you still think about that game, so companies will try and sell you on cellphone game that ties into the home experience more and more.

Well that happened with a few games but it more happens now that you have a preLC and DLC episodes that have the setting/branding from the main game.
POINTS: 0.5

1:02:00
John:
He specifically says a combination between Battlefield Heroes and Battlefield 1943 will happen. (aka B4F !!!)
POINTS: 1

1:09:00+
John:
% of the entire games market towards browser/facebook/mobile will grow A LOT and more and more games wil combine the strategy.
AKA Angy Birds in on EVERY platform imaginable.
POINTS: 1

1:15:00
John:
ZeniMax Media buys Valve :O:O.
Did NOT happen but they did buy a HOLE lot else.

# Arkane Studios, acquired in 2010
# Tango Gameworks, Shinji Mikami's Tokyo-based studio.
# Machinegames Sweden AB, a studio formed by Starbreeze founder Magnus Högdahl.

POINTS: 0

1:16:00
Ellis EA MMA will not come out in 2010.
Well it did but did not do very well.
POINTS: 0

1:16:30
John:
Gears of War 3 pre-quel with Alex as the lead, more RPG elements
Ellis its going to come out in 2010
Well that was clearly NOT true for GoW3 because its no pre-quel and its sept 2011.

Spoiler

Eighteen months after the fall of Jacinto

But Ellis does mention maybe a episode? we will see at the VGA 2010.
And Ellis mentions overhaul for muliplayer of GoW3, true because it will have dedicated servers.
POINTS: 0 (John)
POINTS: 1 (Ellis for the MP part of Gears 3)

1:18:40
Ellis:
Bioshock 2 disappointment in sales:

•2K Games launched BioShock 2 globally on February 9. The title has been a commercial and critical success, and has shipped over 3 million units to date. The original BioShock title launched in August 2007 has now sold over 4 million units, bringing the total sales of the franchise to 7 million units.

So Maybe if the game has some more legs it could outsell the original but for now not so much.
POINTS: 1

1:20:10
Ellis:
Ken Levine next project Q1 announced (aka Bioshock Infinite), will not be "just one game"
Well for now it is maybe their will be pre-LC but for now its just the main game.
And announced in August of 2010 not Q1.
POINTS: 0

1:22:40
John:
"Epic Mickey is going to bomb and maybe not just for wii".
Well we do not know that YET it looks way better than it did at the end of 2009.
And for now its still a wii game.
WE CAN'T GIVE OUT POINTS YET until JAN 2011

1:24:00
John:
Mortal Kombat is coming back and it will be a reboot.
100% correct but its coming in 2011 but the rest was 100% correct.

Warner Bros announced a new Mortal Kombat is in development for the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3.
Set for release in 2011, the new title will feature an all-new graphics engine, the return of brutal fatalities, and a "reinvention" of its classic 2D fighting mechanic

POINTS: 1

Ellis:
It will be a MK vs something again
Not true.
POINTS: 0

1:25:00
John:
Their will be more games announced with a 3 in the title that where released in 2009.

London, May 24th 2010: Sony Computer Entertainment Europe has confirmed the return of its iconic first person shooter, Killzone®, to PlayStation®3 [PS3™].

POINTS: 1

1:25:30
Ellis:
By the end of the year after the release of Halo Reach, we will know more about 343 and what they are doing with Halo.
As far as I know, nothing new is their from 343 than we did know by the end of 2009.
But the game itself is far away.
POINTS: 0

1:26:10
Ellis:
"2010 the year the music games die"

Initial sales of Warriors of Rock were below estimates. The NPD Group reported 86,000 units sold in the United States across all platforms for the last five days of September during which it was available. This figure fell below the initial sales of the previous games, such as 1.5 million and 500,000 units in first-week sales for Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock and Guitar Hero World Tour, respectively

On November 11, 2010, Viacom stated that it was in talks with potential buyers for Harmonix,

Well that maybe seems a little heirs but yes its true.
Ellis:
And their going "plug and play"
John: one is going to win; Ellis GH more successful
John: Rock Band is going to win because of DLC and RBN.
Ellis: Greenday not going to do well

Sales of Green Day: Rock Band within the month of June 2010 was consider "paltry" by industry analysis Doug Creutz, with only 82,000 units sold in North America

That Turned out that was true.
POINTS: 1

1:29:29
Ellis:
Best selling game of 2010?
Ellis: Star Craft 2
John: Final Fantasy 13

Well so far:

Blizzard has announced that pristine PC and Mac game StarCraft II: Wings of Liberty
3 million copies worldwide during its first month on sale.

Final Fantasy XIII was the top seller for the company, with 5.55 million units, split 1.85 million for Japan, 1.79 million for North America, 1.77 million for Europe and 0.14 million for Asia/other.

But Call of Duty Black Ops sold:

Within 24 hours of its release, Black Ops had sold a combined total of of 5.6 million units in the US and UK market, surpassing that of Modern Warfare 2 and establishing a new record for largest entertainment launch.

And that is in 24 hours and we will need the holiday season.
POINTS: 0

1:31:00
Ellis:
Halo Wars 2 announced and out before Halo Reach, more like an expention pack than a full new game
Well clearly that did not happen .
POINTS: 0

1:41:39
John:
When will we see Super Mario Galaxy 2?
Ellis: Q4 2010
John:
Maybe not maybe earlier?
And he was right

It was released in North America on May 23, 2010, in Japan on May 27, 2010, in Europe on June 11, 2010, and in Australia on July 1, 2010.

POINTS: 0

1:42:00
John:
Will we see what Tomonobu Itagaki is doing?
Ellis:
Yes at E3 2010
And Yes that is true!

Devil's Third is an upcoming 2012 third-person shooter video game developed by Valhalla Game Studios and published by THQ for the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3.

POINTS: 1 (Good one Ellis!)

1:44:00
John:
I want to see the old Republic doing well!
Ellis:
Do you think it will come out in 2010?
John:
YES!
Ellis:
I hope it does well, but its still an MMO with MMO things to do.
POINTS: 0

Results from the 39 predictions:

Ellis: 13.5 correct
John: 13 correct

That is not to bad for looking into an entire year and just predict stuff not bad at all!
I want to talk David Ellis and John Davison for the great podcast and hopefully you will read this .


And this part is for Garnett:
Have John on again before X-mas do a 2010 recap with themes of the year and some trends of 2010 + news of 2010 (respawn actibliz thing, 3DS, PS3 clock glitch etc).
And than predictions for 2011 with themes for 2011.

 

[bigdaddygamebot]

This reminds me that I don't miss Ellis on podcasts...

 

[Pein]

This reminds me that I don't miss Ellis on podcasts...

Yeah, I never liked him much.

 

[Suzzopher]

That was only last year? Man that feels like two years ago. This year has gone slower than I had thought.

 

[Y2Kev]

They'd get more right if they got off this subscription bullshit John has been swearing will come with madden since 2005.

 

[Nirolak]

50:55
Ellis:
Dante Inferno will outsell Bayanetta

So that's about 470.000 copies
Bayanetta sold:

POINTS: 0

You can't compare lifetime shipped units to one month actual sell through in a single region.

Dante's Inferno did outsell Bayonetta in the U.S. and Europe, and Bayonetta outsold Dante's Inferno in Japan.

It's not entirely clear what the final unit count is though.

 

[The Dutch Slayer]

This reminds me that I don't miss Ellis on podcasts...

To bad I liked him a lot well good for you I guess .

You can't compare lifetime shipped units to one month actual sell through in a single region.

That is why I need more help if people have more sales info or info in general than plz tell me I'll edit anything in or out no problem .

 

[Visualante]

More than just a few games used outsourcing. I'd bet pretty much every company has done some form of outsourcing. From QA right up to character production. I think they deserve a point for the 3DS, also.

 

[Rlan]

1:25:30
Ellis:
By the end of the year after the release of Halo Reach, we will know more about 343 and what they are doing with Halo.
As far as I know, nothing new is their from 343 than we did know by the end of 2009.
But the game itself is far away.
POINTS: 0

We don't know much about 343, but Ellis certainly does

 

[The Dutch Slayer]

More than just a few games used outsourcing. I'd bet pretty much every company has done some form of outsourcing. From QA right up to character production.

Well of course that is noting new but its more prominent and more like MoH 2010 than that studio does a backround or some rendering.

We don't know much about 343, but Ellis certainly does

hahahahaha so true

 

[Jack Random]

United States NPD Group sales data showed that the PS3 and Xbox 360 versions of Dante's Inferno sold 242,500 and 224,700 copies respectively in the month of February 2010 The two editions also debuted together on the UK's top 10 games list for that month.
So that's about 470.000 copies

Bayanetta sold:

February 5, 2010, Sega Sammy reported that Bayonetta has sold 1.1 million units worldwide

Wait, you counted up NPD numbers for Dante, but used Sega's worldwide numbers for Bayonetta. Apples and Oranges. Bayonetta did very poorly in the US.


Also, a few days ago it was reported that Blizzard is looking for console developers for Diablo 3 (http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=413113) not an announcement, but still, very revealing.

 

[Ifrit]

1:42:00
John:
Will we see what Tomonobu Itagaki is doing?
Ellis:
Yes at E3 2010
And Yes that is true!

POINTS: 0 (Good one Ellis!)

Maybe I'm understanding it wrong, but why did you give 0 Points if they were right?

 

[Empty]

I would give John minus points for his loudness about his repeatedly wrong predictions about the immediate takeover of subscription models and browser games.

 

[The Dutch Slayer]

Wait, you counted up NPD numbers for Dante, but used Sega's worldwide numbers for Bayonetta. Apples and Oranges. Bayonetta did very poorly in the US.

I know that is what I said, I'm going on what I could find.
If anyone knows more I'll be happy to change it

Maybe I'm understanding it wrong, but why did you give 0 Points if they were right?

he nice catch !
I'll edit it.

 

[GitarooMan]

Somehow I doubt Bayonetta sold through more than Dante's Inferno, but as noted above, hard to say for sure.

 

[coopolon]

Wouldn't it make more sense to give them negative points for missing predictions? That way a negative score means they were more wrong than right, a positive score means they are more right than wrong, and 0 means even both ways.

They sure are wrong a lot. I can't remember the episode very well, did they keep saying they knew these things from "sources" or did they admit they were just guessing?

 

[The Dutch Slayer]

Wouldn't it make more sense to give them negative points for missing predictions? That way a negative score means they were more wrong than right, a positive score means they are more right than wrong, and 0 means even both ways.

Well at the end I say that out of 39 "real" predictions they did only a max of 13 came true.
I guess I'm a more positive guy

They sure are wrong a lot. I can't remember the episode very well, did they keep saying
they knew these things from "sources" or did they admit they were just guessing?

Combination of both, things they heard at the VGA's 2009 inside sources and guessing and prediction work.

 

[Jack Random]

looks like on NPD, Bayonetta sold just over 100,000 on 360, and did not chart for PS3, meaning it sold under 100,000 (no way of telling how far under 100k).

USA Bomba (it did sell very well in Japan though, IIRC)

 

[lybertyboy]

It's almost impossible to believe that was almost a year ago.

One of the things people should understand when listening to prediction shows like this, entertainment value is almost equally important to accuracy. These episodes are fun because sometimes you go out on a limb knowing full well you'll most likely be wrong. (For example Diablo 3) Everyone wants to have that crystal ball prediction.

Oh, and for the record the "femur" game was NBA Jam. On an episode a few weeks later after it was announced I believe I said it would "absolutely" be coming to 360 and PS3 as well.

I second the OP in hoping John and Garnett can get together and record a prediction episode for 2011.

 

[Curufinwe]

Got a Halo 4 in 2011 prediction for us?

 

[The Dutch Slayer]

It's almost impossible to believe that was almost a year ago.

One of the things people should understand when listening to prediction shows like this, entertainment value is almost equally important to accuracy. These episodes are fun because sometimes you go out on a limb knowing full well you'll most likely be wrong. (For example Diablo 3) Everyone wants to have that crystal ball prediction.

Oh, and for the record the "femur" game was NBA Jam. On an episode a few weeks later after it was announced I believe I said it would "absolutely" be coming to 360 and PS3 as well.

I second the OP in hoping John and Garnett can get together and record a prediction episode for 2011.

Thanks for the nice response David I really do respect and appreciate the time that you took to response !

 

[Empty]

One of the things people should understand when listening to prediction shows like this, entertainment value is almost equally important to accuracy. These episodes are fun because sometimes you go out on a limb knowing full well you'll most likely be wrong. (For example Diablo 3) Everyone wants to have that crystal ball prediction.

Yeah, this is true. I may scoff at a few of the predictions made by the cast members, but the yearly prediction shows were consistently some of my favourites episodes from 1UP Yours, Listen UP and 4 Guys 1UP. They were entertaining as hell, and i really hope Garnett does it this year for Weekend Confirmed.

 

[The Dutch Slayer]

Ow and I updated the OP!

Oh, and for the record the "femur" game was NBA Jam. On an episode a few weeks later after it was announced I believe I said it would "absolutely" be coming to 360 and PS3 as well.

It puts you over the edge man! 13.5 to 13 .

 

[The Dutch Slayer]

Did anymore people have a chance to look at it to maybe help out with the facts?
Or just some general feedback?

Thanks in advance everyone!

 

[Rlan]

Not about this episode in particular, but I went waaay back to the December 8th, 2006 one just randomly and love hearing it.

"Best Wireless (aka mobile) game? Oh who want to even talk about that."

Oh how far we've come.

 

[infinityBCRT]

I remember listening to this podcast (while playing red faction!), and I remember John Davison said that he knew that a big title which had a game with a "2" in the title in 2009 would have a sequel in 2010. Guess that ended up being AC: Brotherhood.

 

[Atomski]

This reminds me that I don't miss Ellis on podcasts...

I enjoyed him as a host a lot more than Garnet Lee.