Here's my pessimistic take. Presuming this one goes through, which it most likely will, with all these studios Microsoft will have a much stronger market position for sure, but the whole thing still seems to be based on a flawed business plan imo.
All the content in the world isn't going to fix the elephant in the room. The sub/Gamepass model, as is currently exists, is not going to bear the fruit they expect and will not support the huge development army they now own. At least not in it's current form. We have already seen the growth of these services in the more traditional console space slow/stagnate capping out at about half of the hardware sold.
The 'huge development army' makes games that will sell at retail on Xbox and on Steam...easily enough to cover development costs for well received AAA games.
Take Forza Horizon 5, for example. It's sold millions at retail, even aside Gamepass revenue.
The weird thing with posts like this is that it breaks down logically. If you're forecasting Gamepass growth slowdown or stagnation, doesn't that translate to a relatively rosy retail picture?
Sure they can steal some of Sony's market, but to reach the types of numbers they want it's obvious they will have to fully uncouple their platforms success from the x-box hardware and drastically change the type of content they are providing.
Huh? They've already uncoupled their content from Xbox hardware years ago. You can play Xbox games on PC, and stream via xCloud. No Console needed, and significant growth opportunity.
Of cource they have to be thinking going full in on cloud/mobile but I just don't see how that works out for them. It's fantasy that their is some huge untapped pool of players that want to play console style games on mobile. And Android and Apple and Free-to play are already well established in that space providing the type of content mobile players want.
Cloud isn't just a play for mobile, though. You can stream on laptops, Chromebooks, tablets, TVs, monitors etc. Target is for people to play console games - xbox games - without hardware, anywhere they go. Why compare to Android or iOS mobile games?
So what's the plan? Buy an army of established console developers to make games for your service based platform that will eventually need mobile content to grow/work.
They don't need mobile content to grow or work. Where did you get that idea from?
I can tell you one thing, I wouldn't want to be one of these studios being acquired. It's like making a deal with the devil. When Gamepass growth targets aren't hit Microsoft will eventually pivot fully into the mobile direction to reach their growth goals (which has to be their goal). On that day these devs could very quickly find themselves making mobile gatcha bullshit or just plan culled. At some point Microsoft are going to want a return on their investments and when that day comes, and it is coming, all these traditional console game studios they just bought could find themselves making whatever the new corporate version of Avatar Shoes is or just plane disbanded.
If Gamepass growth targets aren't met, Microsoft will do what everyone has been doing for decades - simply sell games in stores and digital storefronts.
"People who don't subscribe to GamePass won't buy Starfield or Fable" is a weird assumption indeed.
At some point Microsoft are going to want a return on their investments
They'll be getting that day one if the Activision acquisition goes through.
