I don't think so. I don't think that there won't enough buyers, but there is still the chip/resource shortage. If they haven't found another manufacturer with enough resources I doubt that this is doable.This sounds 100% like what they are shooting for.
- 3.8 million in Q2 (July - Sept)
- 8.1 million in Q3 (Oct - Dec)
- 3.8 million in Q4 (Jan - Mar)
Seems doable to me if you look at the PS4 trend for the same time covered.
The switch is a hybrid console and it came out in 2017, these are facts, im being selective for stating facts? ok ....
But it doesn't matter i said even if we do include the switch, it only strengthens my point.
The switch and its successor will take away ps5 sales, not add to them, but you will probably ignore this point...again..
Well my point is that PS5 wont sell as well as the PS4 because more of the pie is being eaten by others. If the market grows because of the this switch that only strengthens my point.
The market would have to grow for the "hd twins" for the PS5 to sell as much as the PS4 or there would have to be more multi console owners, which is a possibility.
No you only talked about the switch not being included in 8th gen sales figures, u dont address that if nintendo and xbox take bigger pieces of the pie theres less pie for sony. Or somehow is sony immune to competition
I don't think so. I don't think that there won't enough buyers, but there is still the chip/resource shortage. If they haven't found another manufacturer with enough resources I doubt that this is doable.
Currently the chip-market is just not able to deliver more and there are no signs that this shortage will end soon.
If the could produce more they would already have done so but so far delivery numbers have not increased
At this point in time, we have made no change to our 18 million unit sales forecast for PS5™hardware in FY22, but since we are seeing a recovery from the impact of the lockdown in Shanghai and a significant improvement in the supply of components, we are working to bring-forward more supply into the year-end holiday selling season.
Seems the HFW bundle was in stock for nearly a day.
Yes you are being selective because you come up with arbitrary reasons as to why Switch sales should not be included. Yes, the Switch is a hybrid system, but it is still a console that can be hooked up to the TV and it is frequently played there. Saying that the home console market hasn't grown in twenty years based on the fact that the most popular system happens to be a hybrid system instead of a strictly home console is ridiculous.
Because that's not the part of your post that I take issue with. I don't necessarily disagree with that point. The only part of your post I take issue with is your statement that the home console market hasn't grown much in twenty years. This is demonstrably incorrect.
At this rate they're only 3m behind PS4 launch aligned with all the unprecedented issues the industry is facing.At this rate they will hit 60 million mark in 3yrs. It won't touch ps4 numbers.
This time of the year demand is the lowest. Come anywhere near Christmas it will be a bloodbath.I got that tip that the bundles were in stock on sony's site last nite. I texted a friend who was looking, and he did't see the text until hours later, but managed to grab what seemed like the last one. I thought that was notable that it was up for sale for sale that long. If the $50 difference for a bundle was able to make it sit around a bit, then maybe things will be better by holidays. I'm sure they will still sell out but maybe it won't be outright ridiculous trying to find one.
This is a excellent chart, but why no PS2?This sounds 100% like what they are shooting for.
- 3.8 million in Q2 (July - Sept)
- 8.1 million in Q3 (Oct - Dec)
- 3.8 million in Q4 (Jan - Mar)
Seems doable to me if you look at the PS4 trend for the same time covered.
I think it’s too early for the pie talk. It’s not like people only have $299,$399 or $499 to spend once in a console generation.
The truth is, we get what we can get, while we can get it, until we can get what we want.
Lot’s of folk picked up a Series S, because you can literally find them anywhere, anytime.
You still can’t find a PS5 sitting on a shelf, being neglected, not wanted. The demand is still of the charts.
The market base potential for PS, based on demand and mind share, has undoubtedly grown the “pie potential” larger, if anything.
We are in 2022, portable consoles exist, console market did start and the previous gen still isn't done. I don't know the 1st and 2nd but must be smaller than 3rd gen:The home console market has not really grown much in the past 22 years.
Ps2 sold 115million by 2006
GameCube 20 mil
Og xbox 25 mil
Total for that gen = 160mill
360 sold 65mill
Ps3 75mill
Wii = 100mill
Total by 2013 = 240 mill
-----------------------
Xbox One sold 50mill
WiiU sold 15mill
Ps4 sold 120mil
Total by 2020 = 185mil
So, we can see by these numbers that the home console market installbase has not changed that much Since gen6
Sony shared PS5 performance and demand numbers in their most recent FY report. We also saw them achieving gaming history records on social media plus also saw how fast they get sold out even today after having sold over 20M consoles.How can you say that the he mind share and demand has grown the potential PS5 consumer base when we dont know what the mind share or demand is? Especially over a 7yr period. Looking at history is the best indicator we have.
A good sized chunk of Switch systems are ones that can't be played on a TV though.Yes you are being selective because you come up with arbitrary reasons as to why Switch sales should not be included. Yes, the Switch is a hybrid system, but it is still a console that can be hooked up to the TV and it is frequently played there. Saying that the home console market hasn't grown in twenty years based on the fact that the most popular system happens to be a hybrid system instead of a strictly home console is ridiculous.
Because that's not the part of your post that I take issue with. I don't necessarily disagree with that point. The only part of your post I take issue with is your statement that the home console market hasn't grown much in twenty years. This is demonstrably incorrect.
We are in 2022, portable consoles exist, console market did start and the previous gen still isn't done. I don't know the 1st and 2nd but must be smaller than 3rd gen:
NES 61.91M
MS 19.17M
Dendy 6M
Atari 7800 1M
SG1000 0.4M
A few more with tiny or unknown sales
3rd gen total = 88.48M+
GB 118M (it also includes GBC, so I'd move GBC sales to 5th gen but we don't have separate data so I'd count it here)
SNES 49.1M
MD 32.25M+ (sold during decades in Brazil in different revisions by TecToy)
GG 11M
PCE/TG 10M
PCE GT/Turbo Express 1.5M
NG 1.18M
Lynx 0.5M
4th gen total = 223.53M+ (part of this is GBC that I think should be moved to 5th gen)
PS1 102.49M
N64 32.93M
Sat 9.26M
WS 3.5M
3D0 1M
CDi 1M
Jag 0.2M
VB 0.8M
A few portables more with no sales data like NGP,NGPC, Game.com
5th gen total = 146.68M+ (I'd include GBC here but we have no separate numbers from GB)
PS2 115M
GBA 81.5M
XB 25M
GC 21.75M
DC 9.13M
NGage 3M
6th gen total = 255.38M+
DS 154.02M
Wii 101.63M
PS3 87.4M
360 84M
PSP 82M
7th gen total = 509.05M+
PS4 117.2M (still being sold)
Switch 107.65M (still being sold)
3DS 75.94M
XBO ~51M (estimate)
Vita ~15M (estimate)
WiiU 13.56M
SNES Mini 5.28M
Nes Mini 2.3M
A gazillion PC/retro/mini consoles/portables both official (Steam Deck, PS Classic, Neo Geo Mini, PCE mini etc) or pirate/chinese with unspecified sales
8th gen until now = 387.93M+ (still being sold)
Sony shared PS5 performance and demand numbers in their most recent FY report. We also saw them achieving gaming history records on social media plus also saw how fast they get sold out even today after having sold over 20M consoles.
Scalpers aren’t grabbing them as much any more because the resale price has dropped significantly. Why would they go through the hastle of selling fees and shipping if they are only marked up $200-$250.I got that tip that the bundles were in stock on sony's site last nite. I texted a friend who was looking, and he did't see the text until hours later, but managed to grab what seemed like the last one. I thought that was notable that it was up for sale for sale that long. If the $50 difference for a bundle was able to make it sit around a bit, then maybe things will be better by holidays. I'm sure they will still sell out but maybe it won't be outright ridiculous trying to find one.
You can read my longer comment but I think they will keep grabbing them until they can only mark up by about $150 (which I calculate only gives them $50ish actual profit). Alternatively if something changes so that scalpers are unable to return their PS5s if they cannot sell them for what they wanted to (hint: that will never happen because they're just consumers at point of purchase... so nevermind).Scalpers aren’t grabbing them as much any more because the resale price has dropped significantly. Why would they go through the hastle of selling fees and shipping if they are only marked up $200-$250.
This is true, but at least most of the big scalper groups won’t touch them with that profit…at least I hope. I’ve had mine since launch and I gotten them for two people, but it makes me sad that people can’t just go into a store and buy one yet, everyone should be able to buy the system of their choice, at cost.You can read my longer comment but I think they will keep grabbing them until they can only mark up by about $150 (which I calculate only gives them $50ish actual profit). Alternatively if something changes so that scalpers are unable to return their PS5s if they cannot sell them for what they wanted to (hint: that will never happen because they're just consumers at point of purchase... so nevermind).
Nice and kudos to you for getting them for other people too (hope you either sold them to friends/family at a "reasonable" price or just gave them as gifts). I'm kinda glad that scalping happened because looking at the PS5 exclusive lineup right now.......... I dunno I think I'd be annoyed if I bought one at launch (even at MSRP) and had hardly anything that looks/plays like a truly next-gen game (subjective of course).This is true, but at least most of the big scalper groups won’t touch them with that profit…at least I hope. I’ve had mine since launch and I gotten them for two people, but it makes me sad that people can’t just go into a store and buy one yet, everyone should be able to buy the system of their choice, at cost.
Sony doesn't know the number of people who wanted a PS5 but cant get one. There social media records dont surprise me, PS4 still has a very large and active installbase, and I don't doubt PS5 will be a great success, I dont think it'll beat PS4 numbers though.
Holding back stock for the God of War LE console
One was for family and the other for a good friend. I just have them for retail cost and the shipping price. I am not a fan of marking up consoles for anyone truthfully.Nice and kudos to you for getting them for other people too (hope you either sold them to friends/family at a "reasonable" price or just gave them as gifts). I'm kinda glad that scalping happened because looking at the PS5 exclusive lineup right now.......... I dunno I think I'd be annoyed if I bought one at launch (even at MSRP) and had hardly anything that looks/plays like a truly next-gen game (subjective of course).
Have you regretted it or are you enjoying your purchase?
Yes. I look forward to that time.Well that really depends on where the demand is. Once we see plenty of PS5 on shelves we should be able to gauge the actual demand for the system. At this point Sony is fighting to keep the supply up not that they are fighting to get people to buy the systems.
Yes. I look forward to that time.
Im not worried, it would just be better to have an accurate measure of demand.It will happen at some point so don’t worry. I’m pretty sure supply will improve overtime and it already has in some locations.
At this point history is the strongest indicator. Especially with the undisruptive nature of the PS5 + series consoles.
How do you know people dont have, $299,399 or 499 to spend on a console the entire gen? What are you basing this on? With inflation high, energy prices very high and the cost of living going up maybe people have less money to spend on consoles.
And you say the demand of the PS5 is off the charts, all we know is demand is exceeding supply, by how much we dont know.
And after a while not meeting demand no longer becomes an excuse its a problem the company cant solve.
I wish the supply issues would resolve themselves because I think they can create a somewhat artificial outlook on demand.
How can you say that the he mind share and demand has grown the potential PS5 consumer base when we dont know what the mind share or demand is? Especially over a 7yr period. Looking at history is the best indicator we have. I think the gaming industry will grow, but the traditional console market will only grow slightly in my opinion, by nov 2027 i think the PS5 would of sold 100million and the series consoles 90million.
-The xbox one sold what, like 50 million units over it’s life?
-360, was like 87 million.
-OG Xbox like 25 million.
Mind share would be the number of people discussing PS5. Tweets. YouTube videos. Heck, the three minute video reveal of the PS5 has 40 million views. (Two years)
The recent GOWR video on YouTube has 8 million views (3 weeks). The official Starfield gameplay has 2.9 million views. (1 month)
Those engagement numbers map almost directly with demand. If anything, we could argue that Xbox has a lower pie potential and has been tapering ever since the 360.
I understand inflation pressure all too well. But, inflation causes people to stop eating out, buy less groceries, etc. Consoles are a luxury item, and most people still buy luxury items regardless. My brother, the infinite dumbass that he is (still love him) bought a PS5 direct from PlayStation last week. The HFW bundle. Despite being a loyal servant to Phil. (This is an anecdotal story about my brother being on a fixed income who already owns a series X).
They’ll sell everything they can make, and then some. The only saving grace for MS at this very moment pertaining to availability is the S. The die size is half of that of the XSX and PS5, thus, you get twice the chips from a single wafer, and i’d also wager the yields are higher as a result.
It’s too early to tell right now only two years in. The biggest numbers are always usually in the beginning as that’s when your most loyal followers are renewing their support. That’s a false sense of success as numbers will trend down, mom/yoy.
But, if we’re going off of history, fortune has always favored Nintendo, Sony, and then Microsoft.
Microsoft is midway transition into full blown Saas/GaaS because delivery is way better when you don’t gave to rely in traditional logistics/human MFG.
This will be the last console generation from Microsoft, they’ve been looking for the door for a long time. At first, it’s not about console sales. But, now it is. The buzzwords have died down a lot here recently. (Xbox ecosystem, RDNA2, etc).
I hope i am not coming off as aggressive, not my intent. I just disagree with some of your takes lol.
Sony knows PS5 demand is way higher than the fastest selling console ever launch aligned with PS5 had because they saw that basically all their monetization, engagement and retention metrics were way better in PS5 than in PS4, including the one of how fast an amount of X thousand shipped units get sold.Sony doesn't know the number of people who wanted a PS5 but cant get one. There social media records dont surprise me, PS4 still has a very large and active installbase, and I don't doubt PS5 will be a great success, I dont think it'll beat PS4 numbers though.
In the previous generation PS4 sold over 2X units compared to MS. Early gen PS5 vs XBS console sales comparisions doesn't make a lot of sense because Series X (not S) and PS5 are heavily supply constrained, but looking at things like platform split for multiplatform games we know, evolution of MAU or even platform splits for a few big multiplatform games we saw there are no signs of things changing. Specially not knowing Xbox worldwide sales.Xbox and other platforms will take away some sales from playstation, and anyone who says otherwise is delusional.
I'm pretty sure they'll continue in the 3rd position as with 360 or XBO, and that in fact they'll lose console market share. Not only because of Sony and Nintendo improving their own performance, but because I think some people who previously had an Xbox as their only console this gen wll have all the MS games on PC an in GP so probably will play them on PC instead and will choose other console brand.Interesting speculation you have about xbox series being the last console gen, but I disagree.
Yes, there are things that give them more revenue and profit than to sell hardware. Like selling games or services for them. PlayStation also performs way, way better than MS there and have a big distance and with no signs of MS becoming dangerous to them, getting close to them or negatively affecting them.Console sales are an important component but not the be all and end all anymore. I just think the way things are going suggest the ps5 selling more then the PS3 but less then the PS4, and frankly the counter arguments have been terrible. Its like game pass, great seriesS + x hardware, zenimax and actiblizz acquisitions mean nothing to some folks, which is completely absurd.
Sony knows PS5 demand is way higher than the fastest selling console ever launch aligned with PS5 had because they saw that basically all their monetization, engagement and retention metrics were way better in PS5 than in PS4, including the one of how fast an amount of X thousand shipped units get sold.
They know that PS5 will -not only sell more consoles than PS4- but that it will also get have ARPU for each console and not only from its hardware, but also from its games and from its services.
And these metrics were from when PS5 still didn't have the new PS+ or PSVR2 and only had a few exclusives published. They also plan to have more exclusives in PS5 than in any previous generation. Plus they will be generating extra profit from these games/IPs in PC, mobile, movies and tv shows.
I already told you that they explained that in the fiscal report of the FY that ended this March. They have their own data, top retailers data and top market analysts data:No they dont, all sony knows is that they are not meeting demand, by how many that they dont know because there is no way they could know.
They know and everyone else know that the PS5 is selling less then the PS4 launch alligned. They are selling out of PS5s but they dont know if its by 1000s,100,000s or millions.
I dont know what you are talking about monetisation and engagment mentrics....
If someone goes to various stores with the intent of buying a PS5 but they cant because they are all out of stock, sony is not aware of this demand these customers have. They will be aware in a general sense but they wont be able to get factual data about these customers wanting a PS5 but are unable too.
I already told you that they explained that in the fiscal report of the FY that ended this March. They have their data, the top retailers too and they also checked top market analysts:
https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/irday/pdf/2022/GNS_E.pdf
I already told you that they explained that in the fiscal report of the FY that ended this March. They have their data, the top retailers too and they also checked top market analysts:
https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/irday/pdf/2022/GNS_E.pdf
With all the data they have, they know that once not supply constrained it will perform way better than PS4. How much exactly? They don't know it.
Yes, and in every console transition Sony had loses. But in this one Jimbo had record profits instead, and did it while acquiring more studios than ever before, while growing all their internal teams more than ever before, while signing more exclusives than ever before, while having a huge global pandemic/finantial crysis, with Switch performing great in hardware sales and experiencing a huge chips shortage.my god, the earnings for the transition period is literally fucking DOUBLE of what PS4's was. Thats some wild shit!
Thats different to sony knowing the number of people who want a PS5 but could not get one, which is what I said.I already told you that they explained that in the fiscal report of the FY that ended this March. They have their own data, top retailers data and top market analysts data:
https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/irday/pdf/2022/GNS_E.pdf
With all the data they have, they know that once not supply constrained it will perform way better than PS4. How much exactly? They don't know it, but much better than PS4.
I’m not understanding where this doom for the PS5 is coming from.
In the first slide they said that according to the top gaming market analysis firm in the world there's twice the purchase interest in NA for PS5 han it was for PS4 in the same time after launch. PS4 wasn't supply constrained, so I assume that if PS5 wouldn't be supply constrained their sales in NA would be approx. twice of the ones PS4 had in that period.Thats different to sony knowing the number of people who want a PS5 but could not get one, which is what I said.
Could you share a single market data that suggests that PS5 will perform substantially worse than PS4 and other one that suggests that Xbox will 'steal' them console market share?Thinking the PS5 is going to sell 100million, is now considered "Doom"
Thinking the PS5 is going to sell 100million, is now considered "Doom"
They"know". Yeah right they don't know. Knowing meaning they know the future. GtfoI already told you that they explained that in the fiscal report of the FY that ended this March. They have their own data, top retailers data and top market analysts data:
https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/irday/pdf/2022/GNS_E.pdf
With all the data they have, they know that once not supply constrained it will perform way better than PS4. How much exactly? They don't know it, but much better than PS4.
They didn't do it before because they couldn't due to lack of chips supply.Hey GAF. My primary thought upon hearing this is that it means they're saying they have the ability to increase supply. So then I wonder why they didn't do this sooner. I need someone more intelligent than me (not a high bar) to explain what I'm missing.
They didn't do it before because they couldn't due to lack of chips supply.
As their providers increase the amount of chips supplied, they increase production which takes some time, same as to distribute them. So it takes some time. During the current fiscal year, specially during this Christmas quarter PS5 is supposed to start performing better than PS4 did in the same period of time and they expect to continue at least during the next fiscal year (where it's supposed to outsell PS4 launch aligned) and beyond.
Yes, during this holidays the comeback should start to be noticiable and somewhere next year PS5 should pass PS4 launch aligned and become the fastest selling console ever launch aligned according to their estimates.So sometime next year we will see the gap close between the two. At least we won’t have long to wait.
Yes, during this holidays the comeback should start to be noticiable and somewhere next year PS5 should pass PS4 launch aligned and become the fastest selling console ever launch aligned according to their estimates.
They plan to sell 18M consoles this FY and only sold 2.5M in the first quarter, so the holidays quarter and the first one of 2023 must be epic.